Thursday, May 9, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals May 08, 2013

Nifty has so far retraced 95.5% of the fall from 6111.80 to 5477.20.The trendline connecting 6338.50 and 6111.80 is currently at 6088.66 and today Nifty made a high of 6083.50.Timewise this upward retracement has taken 33% of the time taken by wave A.
Technically what could happen from now on?

 Let us examine the daily charts from a medium term perspective.
A Flat Correction pattern exhibits a 3-3-5 pattern, where 3,3 and 5 are sub waves.
Wave A exhibits a 3 wave correction.
For Nifty to play out the current moves as a Flat, Wave B also must have 3 waves.
Currently we are in Wave a of Wave B. Assuming wave B is of 3 sub waves, we note that the very first wave a of B,has already retraced wave A by 95.5% that too in just 17 days, tells us that wave B has bright chances of going over 100% of wave A by the time wave c of wave B will be over.
As per Neowave rules,
1. Normal B  wave should retrace wave A by 81 to 100%.( Wave B has so far retraced Wave A by 95.5%). In other words, if Nifty reverses from here, then we can reasonably expect a normal B wave is unfolding.
2.In such cases, wave b of B should not retrace beyond 5719 ( 61.8%) and wave c of B will mostly be equal to wave a of B. ( the current upmove)
3. In such a scenario wave c of B is likely to retrace all of wave b of B, which means if wave b of B falls to the vicinity of 5719, then wave c of B will take it back to 6100 levels.If Nifty is forming a common Flat,then Wave c of B could also go up to 138.2% of wave b of C, which is around the region of 6245-6275.
4. Since wave B normally consumes more time  than wave A ( down move from 6111.80) and since it has consumed only 17 trading days,waves b of B and c of B may consume 32 more days to complete their Wave B formation.
So we wait for Nifty to give us clear signals regarding the direction. At present we trail our stops tighter and tighter.And wait for a reversal to book profits on the longs.

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