Sunday, April 28, 2013

Astro Technicals- Technical Picture for April 29, 2013

Nifty has now recovered 445 points and has closed above 61.8% retracement level of the down move from 6111.80.If Nifty keeps moving up to 5964 or 5971 levels, we will maintain, the labelling as Wave B of a Flat correction from 6111.80.
On the other hand, if Nifty weakens from here and closes below 5817, then we would tentatively conclude that there is one more corrective leg in the offing and this retracement would be labelled as an x wave and we would expect another abc to unfold. The c of which could go below 5478 and that would conclude wave A, the first downleg from 6111.80. Wave B should then start from that point. In this second scenario, wave a may not correct dramatically downwards, but could float around- this is especially true because RBI`s Annual Policy is round the corner.
As the previous two blog posts suggest even astrologically there is only less room for up moves. So caution with longs is indicated. Strict stop losses and an un-anticipatory approach to the markets, is the need of the hour.

Astro Technicals- Dasa formation and their implications.

If we examine the Dasa-Bhukthi- Antara-Sookshma Vimshottari time divisions to Nifty, we have the following Dasa Periods coming up...
11-March to 09-April-2013:Rahu dasa-Venus Bhukti-Venus Antara-Venus Sookshma
09- April to 18 April 2013: Rahu dasa-Venus Bhukti-Venus Antara-Sun Sookshma
19- April to 06 May 2013: Rahu dasa-Venus Bhukti-Venus Antara-Moon Sookshma
07- May to 14 May 2013: Rahu dasa-Venus Bhukti-Venus Antara-Mars Sookshma
15- May to 11 June 2013: Rahu dasa-Venus Bhukti-Venus Antara-Rahu Sookshma
Let us examine how Nifty had behaved in all such Venus Antara periods in the past, from 2001..

What do we infer? In all such antara -sookshma periods in the past, Nifty either reversed in the Moon sookshma period or in Mars or in Rahu period. If there were bullish aspects prior to the Sookshma periods, then the intermediate reversals tend to happen farther away, in the Rahu sookshma periods. On the other hand, if the aspects were moderate, then intermediate reversals tend to happen either in Moon periods or in the Mars period.
If the aspects prior were negative, then the trend itself will be negative or mixed, going into the sookshma periods.
We are now in the Moon Sookshma period to be followed by Mars Sookshma period, upto May 14, 2013.
So we look for a reversal immediately in this week, followed by an improvement closer to weekend followed  by a bigger reversal in the week May 06 to 10, 2013.Since currently we are going through a series of negative aspects, post May 06/10, the decline could be a little more than anticipated.
It is quite fascinating to see planetary rhythms in Nifty movements, year after year.

Astro Technicals April 29 to May 16th 2013

We are entering another interesting time band, full of potent astro aspects between April 29 to May 31.Following the Lunar Eclipse of April 25, we have a Solar Eclipse on May 9/10, 2013.From May 04th onwards, Pluto and Uranus begin to get within one degree of yet another square and they will be exactly square on May 20/21. Once again we shall start hearing shrill noises about debts and bank/ economy failures, austerity, unemployment,lack of global growth, deflation and what not.With Uranus, the planet for surprise outcomes being involved, it is difficult to say what sort of outcomes will happen.
Here are all the dates:
 Uranus square Pluto June 24 2012
Uranus square Pluto September 19 2012
Uranus square Pluto May 21 2013
Uranus square Pluto November 1 2013
Uranus square Pluto April 21 2014
Uranus square Pluto December 15 2014
Uranus square Pluto March 17 2015
These are typically Mainstream signatures of long term import. During their first two passages, we saw main world economies facing troubles and now we have a deflationary cycle in the commodities going on. We also saw the Equity markets rise in 2012, without much retail participation.By August 07, Jupiter will be opposing Pluto and by August 21, it will square Uranus. That should be a time to watch.We may expect major debacles involving banks across the globe.
Coming back to the times we live in,here are the aspects table  upto middle of May 2013:

Effect on…
April 29          (Monday)
Sun opposition Saturn
Venus opposition to Rahu
Venus conjunct Ketu
Mars opposition to Saturn
1. Prices have been rising into the aspect of Venus- Saturn opposition which began on April 21. So negative moves may be visible on April 29 and or 30.
2. Though not having strong correlation, Venus-Pluto trine tends to set the market on to its dominant trend direction within 5 trading days. That points out to April 29. Question is, is the dominant trend downwards?
3. Venus opposing Rahu- Could have an immediate reversal and then a counter move followed by a bigger reversal by May 15th.
April 30         (Tuesday)
Sun opposition Saturn
Venus opposition to Rahu
Venus conjunct Ketu
Mars opposition to Saturn
Sun trine Pluto

May 02         (Thursday)
Sun trine Pluto
Mars opposition Saturn

May 03         (Friday)
Sun trine Pluto but separating
Mars opposition Saturn

May 04 (Saturday)
Mars begins to trine Pluto
Pluto and Uranus come within one degree of waxing square and they will be exact on May 20 2013
Venus moves to Taurus

May 05 (Sunday)
Mercury opposite Saturn
Mars trine Pluto

May 06          (Monday)
Sun opposes Rahu, conjuncts Ketu
Mercury opposite Saturn
Mars trine Pluto but separating

May 08         (Wednesday)

Since the market was rising into April 30, expect a crest formation by May 08th.
May 09       (Thursday)
Solar Eclipse day
Sun-Mars conjunction began on April 23. Time band for crest formation ends on May 09th.
May 13                (Monday)

Sun opposition Saturn begins on April 29. Crest effect should manifest before May 13th. Same effect for Mars opposition Saturn. Crest effects may manifest anytime between May 07th to May 13th.Sometimes double top formations also occur.
May 13th is also the minimum date for Sun trine Pluto to show some effect. Most probably crest formation, but if declines happen, then the trough would be a significant one. Since other signatures point to a crest, probably this one also ought to support a crest formation.
We notice there are two bands of dates which stand out.April 29/ 30 and the time band between May 08 to 13th.So the simple conclusion would be that we have a slight disruption in the current upmove by April 29 and 30 and then resumption of the upmove, hesitantly till May 08 to 13.Post May 13th, we could see some negative market movements.
What do the lunations say?
I have marked the lunar aspects as well as the dasa antara and sookshma periods on to the Nifty chart itself for easier comprehension.
So by April 29, we have Moon perigee, Saturn at an extreme distance and Moon at minimum declination, all occurring together. Reading  it with the aspect effect from  the tabulation above, we may expect some reversal for April 29 and 30. Will it continue upto May 03? I do not know. All I know is that we have another lunar effect, Moon at maximum Latitude, happening on May 03rd. That also happens to be the day when RBI is going to announce its Annual Monetary Policy for 2013-14.So May 02 may see a hesistant continuity of rise  to May 03  and post May 03, we may see some correction. Since the time band of May 08 to May 13, coincides with some good lunation as shown in  going.the chart above, including a lunar eclipse, the downtrend may accelerate post May 08th, all the way to May 15th.
All of these are mere postulations and need to be confirmed with price movement. Personally, while I will be alert on the days discussed here, I will still wait for these blue and red moving averages along with the RSI to tell me where Nifty is really going.
Happy week of safe trading!

Friday, April 26, 2013

Astro Technicals April 25 2013

Whew! What a breathtaking recovery from the depths of 5478! As we had been postulating for quite some time, Wave A  of the correction from 6111.80, had ended at 5478 and wave B had begun.

ab and c waves in the daily chart which constitute wave A of the corrective  bigger wave B has evolved as an elongated zig zag and has clocked 422 points so far.5972 is an important resistance area and from thereabouts we expect wave B of B to commence downwards. Since wave A down from 6111.80 has consumed 52 trading days, this wave B also may consume similar time if not more.On the other hand since a new time cycle is forming the wave may also shorten. We need to get confirmation for this.
Astro wise we have rallied right into the full moon which also happens to be a lunar eclipse.And April 29 also happens to be a planetary reversal period as reported in the post called as Astro Technicals April 22-26.It is time to be cautious on longs. All we have to do is to have a tight trail with a 20 point stop loss for longs. Once Nifty closes below 5850, then fresh shorts may be taken, on rises.

Have a great week end trading!    

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Astro Technicals Wave Counts

Nifty Astro Technicals April 22 to 26, 2013

Astrologically we are entering a volatile two weeks beginning April 22 and ending May 03, 2013.
Some of the key aspects in this period are:

Astro Event
Lunar Events
Planetary Declinations
Dasa Position
Apr 22
Transiting Venus squares Natal Neptune on April 20.              Venus (Aries) opposes Saturn (Libra) at 12:55 pm IST.Crest by April 29
First Quarter deviation. Moon in Leo, moving from Venus star Jupiter sub to Venus star Mercury sub.

Nifty is in Venus Antara Moon Sookshma till May 06, 2013
Apr 23

First Quarter deviation. Moon in Virgo, moving from Sun star Saturn Sub to Venus sub.

Apr 24
Sun sextile Neptune. Venus trine Pluto.Points to a reversal by April 29.
First Quarter deviation. Moon in Virgo, moving from Moon star Mercury Sub to Venus sub.

Apr 25

First Quarter deviation. Moon in Libra, moving from Mars star Ketu sub to Moon sub.

Apr 26
Transiting Sun squares Natal Neptune.
Full Moon and Lunar Eclipse, with Sun in Aries (Ketu star) and Moon in Libra (Rahu star), moving from Venus sub to Saturn sub.                        Degree: 11:48:44 in Aries. Moon conjunct Saturn at 05:46 am.

Apr 29
On April 28, Sunday, at 10:20:40 am, Mars will transit 11:48:44 degree, the Lunar Eclipse point. Effect on April 29, 2013.         True Nodes become direct. Venus conjunct Rahu-Ketu. Mercury enters Aries.
On April 28, Sunday, at 13:44:19 hrs, Sun opposes Saturn. Transiting Mercury squares Natal Ketu
On April 28, 2013, Moon is at Perigee at 01.18 am. Effect on April 29, 2013.Moon in Sagittarius, Ketu star moving from Venus sub to Mars saub.
Saturn is in extreme declination on April 28. Moon is at its minimum declination on April 29.
Apr 30

May 02
On May 01, Sun trines Pluto. Mars opposes Saturn at 10.15 am on May 01, 2013.Transiting Venus squares Natal Ketu.

May 03

Moon is at maximum Latitude

May 06
Venus moves to Taurus on May 05.Mercury opposes Saturn at 16:29:13 hrs

May 07
Sun conjuncts Ketu, opposes Rahu.

Venus Antara Mars Sookshma till May 14 2013
May 08
Mercury conjuncts Mars in Aries

May 09

May 10
Mercury conjuncts Ketu. Mars, Ketu, Mercury, Moon and Sun are all between 20 degrees and 26 degrees of Aries. All five celestial bodies are in the constellation ruled by Venus. At 05:59 am on May 10, Sun Moon conjuncts at 25:34:25 degrees for the New Moon. This is also a Solar Eclipse Day.

Mercury in extreme declination

Long positions need to be trailed tightly.Any rise from here may be used to take profits. Nifty is expected to show some corrections by the week end. Post April 29th, the upward correction may resume.From May 03rd, decline may resume.
So a roller coaster ride seems to be on the cards.

If we consider the decline from 6111.80, then 5800 represents 50% corrective stage. ( An important Gann percentage.) If we consider the decline from a more recent 5990, then 5795 represents 61.80% of retracement.
So while there could an attempt to move towards 5875, caution must be exercised for a decline, before 5875 is attempted.
For the medium and long term,remember we are in wave B? Also Jupiter is still in Taurus, till May 31? So the uptrend from 4531 is still intact and may continue.
Astro signatures however point out to treacherous two way movements, which is what volatility is all about.
So stop losses and an un-anticipatory approach is the order of the day.

Happy trading!

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals for April 18, 2013

After Venus, Sun and Mars have entered Aries, the sign of action, they are getting involved in the first astro aspect tomorrow. Sun and Mars are becoming conjunct in the star of Aswini, ruled by  Ketu. By nature all the stars involved are incendiary by nature. So is the sign Aries.

Last time we had a Sun Mars conjunction in Aries was on May 13, 1998.It formed a forceful part of a downmove which had ended soon after.
Look at the astro chart for April 18, 2013.

  Apart from Sun and Mars, on April 19, Uranus conjuncts Mercury in Saturn star and are both in unfavourable 6/8 positions to retrograde Saturn.
By April 20, Moon will be at its minimum Latitude, which serves most often as a reversal sign.
Reading everything together, can we cautiously surmise that the present corrective uptrend will have a pause?

Let us look at the astro chart of April 22, 2013..

Oops! We have another problem here. Venus begins to oppose Saturn.This will soon be followed by Sun, Mars and then Mercury- all engaging the wily, old Saturn.Furthermore Moon is in Venus star. Not a combination for an uptrend is it?

And on April 23?

We find Venus moving in a translation point between Saturn and Pluto.Sun and Neptune form a sextile. Moon is moving in Sun star, in a First Quarter deviation.This should be a reverse to positive kind of day.

Here are the price charts...

Corrective uptrend has paused.....

Support levels are indicated here--5644,5617 and 5589.

 Nifty has overshot her 5 period EMAs. It pays to be cautious here.
With planetary aspects looking shaky, it is prudent to play with stop losses. Moreover    there are several dynamics in play. If the market changes direction abruptly, be sure to follow the market rather than wait or trade in anticipation.

Safe and serene trading!

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Astro Technicals April 16 2013

Patterns indicate that the diametric downturn of wave A which had consumed 49 trading days as of April 10, is at last over.With considerable uncertainty and ambiguity we seem to have begun wave B.

Wave B as we all know can never be an easy one.If Nifty closes above 5701 in the next couple of sessions, we will be looking at a zig zag as the first leg of B. Of course whether this is a minor leg of larger formations for the first wave of B, only time will tell.
Examining the current mono waves in little more detail.....
 As per Neowave, even if the current m3 is between 100 to 161.8% of m2 or if m3 is between 161.8 to 261.8% of m2, we can consider m1 as the first leg of a zigzag or the center section of a "c" wave failure ( if we consider m0 also.)
Now for our analysis we have considered m0 as leg g of a diametric starting from 6111.80 on January 29, 2013.Therefore m1,m2 and m3 may be considered as legs of a forming zig zag.
Here is the 30 min chart..

Happy trading.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

By April 18th, we would have completed 55 days from the recent top of Nifty-6111.80 of January 29, 2013.Since then we have been seeing Nifty describing a diametric formation.
We cautiously surmised that when Nifty moved up from 5478, we had probably seen the end of A leg. But when Nifty fell sharply from 5610 (5994, to be exact) it was evident that there is some more movement left in the downward A leg.
Within the limits of diametric movement what do we see?
   In the words of the great master, Glenn Neely,” Unlike orthodox Elliott Wave, which allows great variance in the behavior, relationships and time consumption of specific patterns, NEoWave imposes strict limits. Accurate forecasting can only be accomplished when precise rules relating to price, time, complexity, behavior and relationships are required of all waves in all patterns.

    An important part of the construction of 3-legged patterns (Flats and Zigzags) is that clear alternation exists between the 3 segments on a time, complexity and behavior basis. Since larger degree patterns (under NEoWave) impose maximum time restrictions on smaller degree patterns, a developing (smaller degree) correction only has so much time to unfold. If a correction is allowed no more than 10 days to form (based on the next larger degree) and the market wants to form a Flat, there can be great variance between waves A, B and C in TIME during period. For example, wave-A might take 1 day while wave-B takes 6 days, leaving 3 days for wave-C. This also follows the necessary TIME alternation required in Flats.

    On the other hand, under the same 10-day time restriction, if a market wants to form a 7-legged formation (such as a NEoWave Diametric), that leaves little room for time variance between waves. Waves-A and B might take 1 day, while C, D and E take 2-days, which only leaves 1-day for waves-F and G. As a result, the more waves a pattern contains, the more similar each must be to fit within the time limits imposed by the larger degree pattern. From personal experience, the limit to the wave "alphabet" is A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I, which forms a NEoWave Symmetrical.

    The reason waves-F and G (and sometimes H and I) must be used to label some wave patterns is because specific time and behavior characteristics are required of Flats and Zigzags that are not present in NEoWave Diametrics and Symmetricals. Time relationships during corrections are your primary tool for determining the kind of correction unfolding. If the first 3 waves of a correction are very different in time, a Flat or Zigzag is forming. As time between the waves becomes slightly more similar, a Triangle is the next best choice. As the time between waves becomes very similar (but price differences still exist), a Diametric is your best option. If the waves are very similar in time and also very similar in price, a NEoWave Symmetrical is your only choice.

    Because all corrections possess a specific "time behavior stamp," that is the reason you cannot simply start a new ABC when you become uncomfortable with the continuation of the correction. A completed ABC Flat or Zigzag must possess clear alternation in time between all three waves. If that time alternation is not present, a Flat or Zigzag is NOT forming, but a more complex formation that requires the use of D and E, sometimes F and G and in rare cases, H and I.

In a NEoWave Diametric, the general rule is most wave segments tend toward equality in time, but are different in price. For time similarity to be most obvious, the complexity of the Diametric should not exceed 55 monowaves. If it does, best to move to one higher time frame (i.e., one which is 5 times larger than the chart you are currently looking at - for example, if the Diametric is visible on a Daily chart, but contains more than 55 monowaves, move to a Weekly chart and reassess the Diametric on that time frame).

If the entire Diametric is less than 56 monowaves, then the time variation between each leg of the Diametric will usually be less than 1.618% of the time of an adjacent wave but more than 61.8% of the time of an adjacent wave. Keep in mind, there is usually one exception to this rule in each Diametric where one segment is more than 161.8% (or less than 61.8%) of the time of an adjacent wave.”
So, we look at two alternatives…

If there is a faster retracement of the last fall, then A is complete, with h and i. Or else we have one more x abc to be completed.

Weekly Bollinger Bands suggest that a reversal is on the cards this week...

Despite the negative sentiments prevailing because of negative expectations from  IT sector, the technical picture is not all pessimistic.
Mars, Sun and Venus have now moved on to Aries. Sudden movements could increase.On April 19, Venus sextile Neptune.On April 22, Venus opposite Saturn.
So bumpiness with mild up movements could happen.

Declinations also point out to a mild recovery this week.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Astro Technicals April 11, 2013

Has Nifty begun a bottoming process? Movements yesterday and today give us that feeling.

Astro Technicals on April 11, 2013

Astrologically, today is ruled by Ketu, because Moon is in Ketu Star.Tomorrow, Moon will be in Venus star and Venus will be in Ketu star.Potential for the upside to continue could be considered high.

Astro Technicals April 11, 2013

Come April 12, and we have yet another Infosys results. With so much of negativity around, can Infy results be a catalyst to arrest the downtrend and turn around the market in the near term?

Let us have a look at Infy`s technical charts:

As we can see, Infy had completed Primary Corrective A in January 2013.This wave A itself was a long drawn out triangle.
Wave B had begun with a bang in January 2013 and immediately settled into a complex corrective trading range.
We have completed ABCXAB and are anticipating a minor wave C in an upward direction.

Here is the First Trade chart of Infy ( Know the first trade value? Rs 1.50 per share!) and the transit chart for April 12, 2013

April 12 is a Venus day.So was January 11, 2013, when Infy exploded skywards.Venus is connected with houses 9,11 and 4. It is also a Friday which again connects to Venus.
By and large a positive result may be expected.
Now if these results do not materialize, do not blame the Astro Science. Blame it on my faulty knowledge please!

Implications for Nifty could be a truncated g wave and an early commencement of Wave B.Refer previous post.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Astro Technicals April 09 2013

Hello folks,
Sorry I had to give the weekend post a miss because of a sudden bout of viral fever. Iam on the recovery path and thought let me share a quick post rather than the elaborate analysis of the weekend.

Here is the wave count as I see it now....

Astrologically also we have something interesting coming up..

Look at this chart of April 09, 2013..( I have simplified it for easier comprehension)

Let us look at the Astro chart for April 15, 2013....

So sell on rises continues till April 15/ 16th, 2013. If and when Nifty shows signs of bottoming out, then we may go long with adequate stop losses.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Astro Technicals for April 05 2013

On April 03 and 04th Nifty exhibited typical characteristics of f wave in a diametric formation, when it resembles b wave in the sequence...
We watch to see if Nifty bounces off 5548 forming the C section of wave F.Astro wise the market ought to be in a sideways or negative position till April 15th.See also how each leg has been timewise similar-which means the current leg should end somewhere on April 10th.With increased volatility, we may see a time shortening as well.
In any case, if there is a bounce, it will be another "sell on rise" situation.
Gann lines also indicate the importance of 5548. A break would mean further weakness. Volumes however had been low during the two day sharp cuts.

Weekly cycles are also interestingly poised. Timewise they look to turn. However we must wait for the turn.

A look at Institutional behaviour...

So let us stay with " sell on rise " strategy till Nifty reveals that wave B has begun. Then we buy.
Post April 15th, when Sun, Venus and Mars along with Ketu are in Aries, then more actions should begin.