Saturday, March 28, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 30 to April 01, 2015

Let me start with a few recaps.

In our post of March 23 to 27, we had concluded that,
"So our astro indicators are saying that immediately the Market may move up for a couple of days, but may react down once again and form another low in the first week of April, 2015."

In our post of March 09 to 13, 2015, our summation was,
"To sum up, as per Astro, this week may be neutral to positive, but very definitely storm clouds are gathering by the weekend." That week Nifty opened at 8891, came down to 8682, went up midweek to 8844 before turning down decisively on Friday to 8632.

In our post of March 02 to 06, 2015,
"Some 14 different aspects are jam packed into the period from February 12 to March 31.Three major aspects stand out. Uranus Jupiter trine of March 03,Saturn retrograde on March 16th and final square of Uranus Pluto combination on March 17th.All markets could see reversals. Equities look to blow up higher and face a severe reversal in the second half of the month. The only saving grace is that Pisces and its occupants, Ketu, Uranus, Venus and Mars are getting a trinal benefic aspect from Jupiter.So issues may be ultimately resolved, but there could be turmoil before the relief.
Net effect, Neowave and the cycles indicate a positive upmove but astro formation are advising caution in the second half of this March 2015 month."

Market result? Nifty had moved down from 9119 to 8269, a hefty 850 points, before closing at 8341.
I hope, the readers of this group did benefit this month.

So, the trend has turned down. Looking at the market from 5119 to 9119, this is only a correction which has not even reached 23.6% yet. So the primary trend is bullish and we are in a correction.
How could the correction pan out from here on?
Let us begin with Astro.
 First we look at some of the leftover aspects of last week and then we see some upcoming ones.  
1. Mars Ingress into Aries March 24
2.Sun waning trine retro Saturn -March 25
3.Venus waning trine retro Jupiter March 27
4. Venus waxing trine Pluto March 29 ( when the previous Venus trine Jupiter is still on).
We are also in between a Solar Eclipse ( Ketu eclipse) and a Lunar eclipse of April 04. 

When Mars enters Aries, if Jupiter is in Cancer, markets react first, form a bottom and then rise later on in the month. We are in the reaction period now.
Sun waning trine Saturn is a weak reversal signal..effect date is  April 07 or 08. Stronger trend will resume afterwards. So this could give a counter uptrend by April 07/08. It may be a weak one. 
Venus waxing trine Jupiter and later on with Pluto could aid in a bottom formation by April 01.

Here are the upcoming ones..
1. Sun Ketu conjunction March 31
2.Sun Jupiter trine April 02
3. Total Lunar Eclipse ( Third Blood Moon) on April 04 
3.Sun Uranus conjunction April 06

Sun Ketu conjunction is a negative formation. So the down move could continue.
Sun Jupiter trine is again a weak reversal signal, expected to take effect by April 06.
Blood Moon Lunar eclipse, tends to give a weak up move followed by a stronger down move.
Sun Uranus conjunction is tricky.Nifty could move up within two days strongly, form a crest and then fall back sharply again after 2 to 3 more days. Then the primary trend may resume.

We will examine the Blood Moon formation and the upcoming Jupiter direct station on April 08, a little more closely...
Master Traders such as Gann and Elliott always believed that the market operates in cycles and that the past repeats itself with subtle variations into the future. What causes these cycles? Planetary effects of course!
So if we look at how the markets reacted when Jupiter was last in Cancer, in 2002-2003, we see that when Jupiter became direct after its retro station, Nifty actually fell and formed a bottom in 4 days. ( It recovered and fell again for a deeper bottom and then reversed decisively.)
See what had happened so far in 2014-15, when Jupiter entered Cancer.
1. Jupiter enters Cancer--Nifty fell, formed a bottom, rose and then fell again to a deeper bottom and then rose decisively.
2. When Jupiter enters Mercury star, Nifty fell from a top,formed a bottom, rose and fell into a deeper bottom. Thereafter Nifty moved up strongly.
3.Nifty turns retrograde...Same story. fall first,then a rise and then a fall again..Only difference is it formed a higher bottom.( All of it is visible on the charts.
4. So when Jupiter becomes direct on April 08..... you  guessed it...Nifty could fall, form a bottom, rise and then form another bottom before turning up decisively.   We shall discuss this a little more next week. 
What about those red boxes?
We move to the next chart..
The box area of October 2014, has been expanded here...We see it has got to do with the second Blood Moon Total Lunar Eclipse of October 08. After an initial rise, Nifty fell 248 points!
On to the next chart....
  We see that varying astro phenomena are in fact agreeing...
Now, to Technicals..
 It is now clearer. We are in a diametric formation and in wave d.  We are only in wave a of d. Wave b of d could move up and wave c of d could move down in April. It has taken 16 days so far. Average has been 28 to 31 days. So April 15/16 are important days. 
Our blue cycle is forming a classic inversion. That is the cycle top is about to coincide with a market bottom.  
Here are the declinations..
 Important dates are mentioned on the charts.
To sum up, Nifty may continue to move up and down with a negative bias till April 01. Then form a counter up move and after Jupiter turns direct, should move down again to form an important first bottom.   
Most importantly, these are just conjectures.
Trend is your friend and guide. Right now the trend is down. Let us go with it, till we are stopped out. And then go long till the next turn down. For a trader, nothing other than price action is important. No news, rate cuts, or Yemen wars matter.
All the best to your trading this week!

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 23 to 27, 2015

We had quite an action packed week..

From a bottom of 8612 Nifty moved up to 8788 and turned down once again to close at a weak 8571 on March 20. As can be seen, with the formation of lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart, Nifty`s trend has turned down.

Actually, on every positive news, Nifty has encountered fresh selling.
Looking at Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic Momentum Indicators on the daily chart,

We see that Nifty has reached the lower BB and is poised for a break lower. Such a break is a positive indication of the counter trend beginning, upwards. Stochastic Indicator is also showing signs of bottoming and the next upward movement may soon begin.
Looking at the weekly picture of the same indicators,

We see that the negative divergence which was persisting for the past 14 weeks has at last manifested as downward price movements, from March 04, 2015.Since the previous week`s candle shows a shooting star formation, we may expect Nifty to spike down this week and form a bottom.

This means any rise from 8571 levels in the early part of next week, is only temporary and Nifty could again go down to fresh lows. How low could it go?

Looking at the hourly chart, using Gann angles on a Gunner system,

We find that the angle low comes to 8470. This also is the bottom formed by Nifty on February 10, 2015.Resistance levels seem to be 8790.Nifty has been sliding down the 45 degree angle after regaining it from the 66 degree angle. (2X1).
If Nifty moves up on Monday, then this chart suggests that 8650 could be the immediate resistance.
If it continues to weaken, 8470 is to be marked for a reversal.
What does our leading indicator say? In case you are wondering what it is, it is astro of course!
Let us recap:

Conjunctions of Venus with Ketu on March 01 and conjunction of Mars with Ketu on Mars , led to a crest formation on Mars 04.
Saturn retrograde on March 14 accentuated the negativity.
Uranus Pluto square of March 17 reduced the positivity in the market. So post this square, market continued to fall.
March 17th was also the final date for Uranus Jupiter trine-second passage.
Solar eclipse of March 20, involving Ketu with the luminaries, Sun and Moon deepened the negativity.
Net, net Nifty has moved down from 9119 to 8533, a depletion of 566 points.
So what is there this week?
a.    March 20 was also a Super Moon. Moon was in Perigee and also was a New Moon. So this week we may see positive movement to start with.
b.     Let us examine this Jupiter Uranus trine a little more. There seems to be a post formation implication..

We had the first passage in September- October 2014.7 days before the passage start date, Nifty had made a top, and fell into the passage date. Uranus was retrograde and Jupiter was direct then. After the passage, Nifty fell into a bottom exactly seven days after. Refer the chart above.
Coming to the second passage, Nifty formed a bottom, seven day before the passage date, and rose into the passage. Here Uranus is direct and Jupiter is retrograde.
So it goes to expect that Nifty will rise to form a top seven days after the passage date? If so March26/27 could see a top.( Now, let us not think it is going to be an all-time top. It is most probably an intermediate top, given the negativity of other planetary formation.
c.  Mars ingresses into Aries on March 24th. Normally this is a bullish signature, but with Jupiter in Cancer, we could see some more negativity.
         See the chart above. With Mars in Aries and Jupiter in Cancer, after a brief up move the market tanked down to a new bottom and later rose upwards.


 In 1990, when Mars was in Aries, Jupiter was in Gemini. Sensex moved up. Later on when Jupiter moved into Cancer, there was a down move and then recovery. Now Jupiter is retrograde and has lost considerable speed, in readiness to become direct on April 08, 2015.So the down move may not be deep, but expected to be shallow.
This  last graph  of Mars ingress is from 2013. Nifty exploded up when Mars entered Aries, but Jupiter was in Taurus.


d. Sun waxing trine Saturn, Venus square Jupiter and Venus trine Pluto are all pointing to a bottom by April 01 or thereabouts.

e.Lastly we examine the eclipse and Ketu`s role a little closely.


In 1997, we had a Solar eclipse involving Ketu. Solar eclipse happens when Ketu is at a distance, usually 8 to 9 degrees.. Moon passes over the Sun in a New Moon formation. Then at a later date, Sun conjuncts Ketu. So we have two negative formations, Solar eclipse and then the date when Sun conjuncts Ketu. Nifty reacted negatively for the eclipse, then consolidated and fell again when Sun conjuncted Ketu.
Fast forwarding to 2015, we had a similar solar eclipse on March 20.And Sun will conjunct Ketu on March 30, 2015, Monday. So we may expect a negative move on March 30.
So our astro indicators are saying that immediately the Market may move up for a couple of days, but may react down once again and form another low in the first week of April, 2015.
Here is the updated cycles chart..

Last week we expected a down move till 8532. Nifty had come down upto 8553.
Neowave wise there are two possibilities coming up.

1. We are in the last leg of the complex correction. After 2nd x we are possibly in another diametric formation. Remember, diametric formations are quite common with Nifty. (One thing is certain. None of these major waves are impulsive. Probably at hourly levels we may see impulses, but not at daily or weekly levels.) Waves denoted in thick black alphabets denote the wave legs. Currently we are in wave d as per this count. 11 days have passed in wave d. So one more counter up move followed by a down move could end wave d. I prefer this count at the moment, because in diametric formation time equality is quite important.

2. The counts followed previously are shown in blue. According to this count, only one more up leg is pending. After which Nifty should correct substantially. The trouble is I do not see major astro formations yet to support this.

So let us go with counts enumerated in option 1 for the time being. Cyclically it looks like we are in for an inversion in the period April 06 to May 11.Let us cross that bridge when we come to it.

One word of caution. I keep receiving mails from people stating that they had assumed market positions anticipating a turn sometimes indicated in these posts.

To the young and less experienced, let me emphasize, that is a wrong strategy to follow.

1.Stay with the trend.
2.It is down now, be short.
3.It has been down for 11 trading days, so keep your stop losses very tight.
4.When a counter move starts in the hourly, wait for at least 3 higher bottoms before taking a long position.
5.If Nifty takes out the previous high, increase your long bets.
6.If Nifty turns down forming another lower top, go short again always with stop losses.
7.Rest all which is discussed here is for entertainment, and deeper understanding of the market.
8.Let me reiterate, price action alone is the reality. Rest all are mere assumptions.

Have a wonderful week of trading ahead!

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Hourly trend comes to an end?

Uptrend which began on December 10, 2015, ( just after Jupiter turned retrograde). Inward bending and outward bending arcs in the vicinity of  7963, dec 10,have both attained completion today.The Green Bowl calculates the  pending uptrend target to be just short of  9000.And this could happen before April 14th,
So we have just started a new trend as of today. Let us watch the progress of Nifty along the blue cycle...

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 09 to 13, 2015

After taking positive cues from the budget markets moved up for two days, March 02 and 03.A surprise rate cut announcement by RBI pushed Nifty to an all-time high of 9119 and thereafter a severe profit booking session pulled Nifty down to close at 8923 points, on March 04. A sedate recovery saw Nifty end the week at 8938.
Overall for the week, Nifty moved up from 8845 to 8938 and formed a Northern Doji. This is a neutral candle stick pattern with price likely to move in both directions.
There are several inter market divergences. US moved down, whereas Dax soared in a strong uptrend. FTSE moved lower. Nikkei moved up for the week, whereas Hang Seng crashed heavily. So we see the markets are tossed and turned around with no clear world trend seen.

With absence of cues here, let us look at our Astro Indicators.
We see we are right in the middle of a geocosmic storm with several planetary energies at cross purposes to one another.
As mentioned last week, we are in the middle of Uranus Jupiter trine effect of which ends on March 17 2015.
Saturn is about to turn retrograde on March 14th (market effect on March 16th).This is a significant cosmic event.
The final Uranus Pluto square is on March 17th.This is another significant cosmic event with tremendous change potential affecting all of the world.
All the above are slow moving long term planets.
In between we have the fast moving planets engaging these slow guys causing additional turmoil.
From February 22 onwards,
Venus and Mars one after the other have trined Saturn. Sun will do so on March 25th. But that will be to a retrograde Saturn.
Venus and Mars have both formed conjunctions to Ketu and opposition to Rahu.
Sun will do so on March 30, 2015. In between Moon will join Sun and both will oppose Rahu. This is what we call Solar Eclipse and will happen on March 20, 2015.
On March 04, Venus was trine with Jupiter
On March 10th, Mars will trine Jupiter.
Sun will trine Jupiter on April 2nd.
On March 05, Venus was conjunct Uranus and square Pluto
On March 11,Mars will be conjunct Uranus and square Pluto
On April 06 Sun will square Pluto and on April 07th, Sun will conjunct Uranus.
In a nutshell, slow moving planets are in aspects to one another. Fast moving planets are also engaging the slow moving planets, in conjunctions, trines, and squares.
Now, let us decipher the market action with respect to these aspects.
1.     Uranus Pluto squares

We see that the market moves up towards the Uranus Pluto square. Only time it peaked earlier than the exact date, was in December 2014. That is possibly because Jupiter turned retrograde on December 08, 2014, at least a week earlier to Uranus Pluto square date. This time we have Saturn turning retrograde two days before the exact date of Uranus Pluto square date.So overall we may expect this positivity to stay till March 16th.
2.     Saturn Retrograde 
Saturn retrograde is a time when all actions done during the Saturn direct cycle is brought up for close examination and Karmic judgments passed. Saturn has karakatwa for Karma. He is the Great Disciplinarian and the Judge. Entire QE program will come up for Judgment. So will the past actions of our Government, with respect to the Budget and other reforms. Retrograde beginnings have mostly been trend changers.

Looking at Saturn retrograde stations in Scorpio, on last two occasions, in 1986 and in 1956, we see that Saturn retrograde, acts a a reversal point for the trend in force till that point of time.So possibly the trend would reverse downwards, after Saturn retrograde starts, on March 14, 2015.  
3.     Uranus Jupiter waxing trines

This is another important aspect which tends to form crests whenever it connects in multiple passages. This means that another crest formation is due from this aspect possibly close to March 12-16, 2015.
Here I have not shown the third passage of Uranus Jupiter trine which takes place from June 08, 2015 to July 04, 2015, with exact trine on June 22, 2015.In the first passage we see the market rising to a crest and then going down from September 23 to October 17th.In the second passage also the market has risen to a crest so far..Normally it would have to go down, but there are larger positive aspects down the line, such as Uranus Pluto square on March 17th, so will the market make another attempt to a high again? This is the expectation we have as of today.
Let us look at something else also...

Mars and Venus are in Pisces and forming several aspects among themselves and with other planets. Venus is exalted in 27 degree of Pisces in Revathi star.On Monday, March 09th she will be in 26 degrees and only on March 10, will she reach 27 degrees. Trend changes generally when Venus moves out of Pisces. Usually she cause a downfall in Pisces and markets recover when she moves to Aries. But the situation is reverse when she is retrograde or when larger planets take over the trend as is the case now. Moreover Mars moves to Revathi from Monday and Mercury is in Mars star as well. In other words there is parivarthana between Mars and Mercury.Such a Mars is in trine with Jupiter.  So it looks like some more uptrend is pending before things turn down decisively.
To sum up, as per Astro, this week may be neutral to positive, but very definitely storm clouds are gathering by the weekend.

Looking at the cycles,

  Nifty continues to move up towards the cycle top of March 12/ 13. There could be heavy volatility this week with huge intra day opportunities. 
From Neo wave perspective, there are two possibilities. 
1. Wave c of c is a diametric, with wave e over at 9119 and currently forming wave f. If so there is one more upleg pending as wave g. That should conclude wave c and it will also conclude abc after 2nd x.
2. Second possibility:Wave c of c is forming an extracting triangle, with currently d leg on. Again one more upleg as e leg is pending.
Of course, if Nifty weakens heavily from here, then we have to conclude that wave c has already topped at 9119 and the downleg has begun already. This seems to be a remote possibility as of now.
Personally my take is to avoid fresh buying. Continue with the existing longs with tight stoplosses and look at the market afresh after March 16/17th.
Best of luck to your trading!

Monday, March 2, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 02 to 06, 2015

Quite an eventful week came to an end. What with the budgets and the settlement all coming together, it was a roller coaster ride indeed!
But it looks as if the volatility has only just begun..There are several astro formations which indicate a period of disquiet has just begun.
First let us look at a larger picture of the wave counts...
   What looks like an interesting possibility right now is that the huge triangle formed as a correction from 2008 top and which ended on August 28, 2013, could itself by a large A leg. The complex correction which had begun since then and which is in its final leg right now, could be the first leg  of a larger B Wave.If so then the correction which began in 2008 Jan could end only in 2020!
Ok. That is too far out and so let us come back to the present scenario. Our wave counts say that the current upleg is either wave g or wave c of c and it could go on to form all time highs.
Faster reversal of the last upleg and break of the bdf line should serve as a notice that the trend has reversed.
A look at the cycles..
    We had expected a volatile yet positive week and that  is what happened.Current wave c has achieved time equality with wave a..we now look for price equality.
Meanwhile the smaller blue cycle has bottomed out. Now both cycles have a positive bias, till March 12/13.
We expect the current uptrend to continue.
Now, a look at the astro formations...
 Some 14 different aspects are jam packed into the period from February 12 to March 31.Three major aspects stand out. Uranus Jupiter trine of March 03,Saturn retrograde on March 16th and final square of Uranus Pluto combination on March 17th.All markets could see reversals. Equities look to blow up higher and face a severe reversal in the second half of the month. The only saving grace is that Pisces and its occupants, Ketu, Uranus, Venus and Mars are getting a trinal benefic aspect from Jupiter.So issues may be ultimately resolved, but there could be turmoil before the relief.
Net effect, Neowave and the cycles indicate a positive upmove but astro formation are advising caution in the second half of this March 2015 month.
Be careful with your positions. Roller coaster is not over yet.