Sunday, June 28, 2020

For the Week of June 29 to July 03, 2020

In our observations last week, we had expected Nifty to move up in the week of June 22 to 26.We had also observed that the up-move is getting stretched.Since Mercury retrograde period was operational we had decided to keep booking profits and guard against false moves.
From 10277, Nifty had moved up to 10533 before declining and closing the week at 10383.
Interestingly, there has been an Inter-market Divergence between Nifty and the Dow as seen from the bottom of May 18 onwards:

Nifty has advanced nearly 16% to the Dow.
FII flows has been good enough. One reason could be the Dollar weakness from 103 to 97.
. After a sustained bout of buying between June 17 and 24, we see some selling only on the last two days of previous week, on June 25 and 26.
So how does the coming week look like?
To arrive at a proper conclusion, let us look at some long term cycles.

Nifty has been guided by 4 year cycles which have sometimes expanded to 60 months or contracted to just 19 months.
We are just 3 months into the new cycle and so on a monthly cycle level, there is some more bullishness left.As mentioned on the chart, the current cycle may go up to September 2020 with a top anywhere between July and September 2020.
If we look at the previous severe decline in prices, in 2008, a 36 month up move was corrected in 9 months.
In 2020, price decline of just two months corrected prices seen 46 months ago.So the price decline justifies a significant bottom categorization. In other words, this 2020 bottom may stay put for quite a while.
So while the monthly cycle looks bullish, the weekly looks like a correction is in the offing.With 5 weeks of upmove already completed, a breather is in fact quite healthy.
On the daily cycle levels also we look to see a correction into July 06 to 09.
Several astro aspects are also coming into play right now.
Venus has turned Direct and Mercury completes its mid point of retrograde on June 30 /July 01.Mars is aspected by Retrograde Saturn and Jupiter moves back into Sagittarius.
After a dip this week, Nifty could attempt to move up to 10500 and then start a bigger correction.
  Classical patterns and Bearish Divergence on RSI also point out the same...
Look to 10030 levels first and then 9900 levels.
Our expectation is that post a good correction Nifty is poised  to move higher in July 2020.

God Bless and stay safe!

Sunday, June 21, 2020

For the week of June 22 to June 26 2020

Last week we noticed that Nifty had completed two cycles and that the next sub cycle could be bullish as well. We had postulated that this sub cycle, in due course,  may move up to 10500-10600.
Nifty opened the week at 9919 and after making a low of 9726 moved up strongly to make a high of 10272 before closing at 10244.During the previous sub cycle Nifty had hit a high of 10326.75.That is the immediate overhead resistance for Nifty.

As can be seen the current cycle has now consumed 23 days.Previous cycle was 34 days, low to low.We are in the 4th sub cycle which has already consumed 6 days.
We are also moving into a denser sky this week.
Mercury had already turned retrograde.
We had just completed an annular Solar Eclipse, which actually cast its shadow across Ladaak.
During this eclipse, Sun and Rahu were both aspected by Mars.By June 28th this Mars will receive a powerful malefic aspect from Saturn.
Venus will finally turn Direct on June 25, 2020.
With Neptune going retro on June 23, between June 23 and 25, six planets shall be retrograde.
Jupiter also slowly moves towards its conjunction with Pluto.India-China border dispute, uncontrolled COVID, fear of a second way and riots in America are all getting high lighted.
Our expectation for the market is it could be neutral to down for the first two days of the coming week and then  move up once again as its fifth sub cycle.Up move is now getting stretched a little and soon  probably from next week, we may see corrections setting in.
Caution is the word. Mercury is retrograde. So guard against fake moves which can eat up your stop losses. Keep booking profits or else they may quickly vanish!

Regarding Bank Nifty,

it is in a wide trading range. Immediate overhead resistance is 21807.4 and the next is 21967. Supports are at 20939 and 19456 for the week.
Since May 18, Bank Nifty has been performing better than Nifty which is a good sign for Nifty Bulls.
BN has been growing at 21.42% versus 16.11% for Nifty.

Some of the sector indices which have done well or average....

Good to average performers...

Whether this up-move since March 23 2020 is a bear rally or the first leg of a new bull market, it has sure been broad based with lot of stocks participating.
Have a great week!

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Republic of China

This is the chart of Republic of China on the left and the current transit of planets on the China chart, on the right.
Both the Ascendant and Moon are in Capricorn in the natal chart. The natal Ascendant and Moon are heavily pressurized by the malefic trio of Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto.Normally benefic Jupiter is a pure 12th lord for China and hence more malefic than benefic.
Problems have started from November 04, 2019, when Jupiter joined Ketu, Saturn and Pluto in the 12th.They intensified from February 07, 2020,when Mars also joined Ketu and others in Sagittarius.
On May 10th, something interesting happened. Saturn the powerful ascendant lord for China turned retrograde at less than a degree and this may lead to unstable thinking and wrong moves.
Jupiter and Saturn will conjunct on December 20, just within 2 degrees of the Ascendant.
Jupiter is in fact translating transformation vibes between Pluto and Saturn and so we may expect China to change in ways we cannot imagine. Revolutionary issues will crop up  inside China.
Seventh house is dominated by a debilitated Mars in conjunction with Pluto. This combo aspects both Ascendant and the Moon. So the underlying thinking has always been, that " With brute force and power we can break down our adversaries.". That coulkd well undergo a change between 2020 and 2025. By 2025 and 2026, Pluto will conjunct the Ascendant and Pluto is a merciless transformer.
Solar and Lunar Eclipses in the sixth house ( conflict house ) are probably influencing  the current
situation. We hope to see good  improvement after the eclipses.( June 21 and July 05 ).

Saturday, June 13, 2020

For the week of June 15 to 19, 2020

In our last week`s post, we had expected the markets to strongly move up towards the Sun square Mars date of June 08 and then be subject to profit taking.Nifty hit a high of 10326.75 on June 08 and since reacted down to reach a low of 9544 on Friday before closing at 9972.70 for the week.
We have seen first of three eclipses so far...
The Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05..Let me reproduce what we had said about this eclipse  in our post of " June 01 to June 05 2020".
As expected markets reduced their bullishness especially on June 12.This low of June 12 also coincides with the Mars-Neptune conjunction of June 13, 2020.Interesting to also note that this steep sell off happens one day after Sun and   Mercury both reached extreme declinations on June 11, 2020.
So what next?
There is never any lack of excitement in the skies!
This week we shall see the intensification of retrogrades.By June 18 this week, at 10:28:50 hrs, Mercury goes retrograde in Jupiter star in Gemini.With this the number of planets which go retrograde increases to 5: Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and by 18th, Mercury. 
And the baton now changes, from Mars to Sun.
Sun enters into Gemini on June 14, 2020.Any sub cycle which bottoms out close to a Sun ingress into Gemini generally gives rise to another bullish subcycle or cycle.
Sun also is unhurriedly moving towards into rendezvous with Rahu on June 21.( Solar Eclipse maximum at 12.10 pm ).Exact Sun Rahu conjunction is on June 20 at 06.39 am.
Cycle wise, the current bullish cycle is 18 days old and we have likely completed two legs.Since both legs were right translated, we expect the next sub cycle also to be bullish.Likely sub cycle top targets can be 10500 to 10615.
Surprises and reversals to be expected. After all we are passing through unstable times. Protect your positions with adequate stop-losses.  

Sunday, June 7, 2020

For the Week of June 08 to 12, 2020

Nifty opened the previous week at 9726.85 on June 01, 2020, went up to 10176.20 on June 03, came down up to 9944.25 by June 04 before closing the week at 10142.15 on June 05, Friday.
Contrary to expectations, Venus sqr Mars was just a small blip on June 03 and now the market is strongly moving towards the Sun square Mars aspect of June 08/09.Sun squares Neptune on June 10 and Mars conjuncts with Neptune on  June 12.
Neptune is all about dreaminess and being divorced from reality.It represents drugged states of altered consciousness.Assumptions rule the roost right now.
All markets are also on a high caused by liquidity.There cannot be a reality check because Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter and Venus are currently retrograde. They will be joined by Mercury which goes retrograde on June 18th.Neptune will join the retrograde group by June 22,2020. Six planets will be retrograde!
When the dreamer goes retrograde, then a reality check may happen.Especially with a Solar eclipse on the same June 22, 2020. 
We expect some profit taking this week before the markets move higher into the week of  June 22, 2020.Not conducive for any shorts but for going long after some profit taking.

9850 is the support level on Nifty futures below which more weakness is expected. Immediate resistances to overcome are at 10266 and 11023.
For Bank Nifty the immediate hurdle is 21967, previous cycle top.
Talking of cycles, we are in the second sub cycle of the new cycle which began on May 18.
First sub cycle took 5 days and the current second one has taken 8 days so far. Any day this sub cycle  may start topping out in line with the cosmic aspects.This second cycle was more bullish than the flat first one. In fact Nifty took out the previous cycle top only in this sub cycle. 
Currently we continue to expect the next sub cycle to also be a bullish one.

FIIs have been net buyers in the Cash Segment from May 26 2020. From June 03, their buy value has started reducing.
Mutual funds have been selling mostly, in June 2020.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

International Synchronicity

All stock markets are influenced by International Fund Flows. IFFs are of course subject to planetary influences. The one influence which has international appeal are astro aspects. Among the markets there maybe less flow or more flow depending on outlooks for each country by IFFs. In other words, amplitudes may differ but turn dates tend to be similar.
There again, there maybe differences of a few days for the same kind of astro aspects. Example: DAX bottomed on March 18 whereas Dow and Nifty bottomed on March 23, 2020.Dow and Dax peaked on April 29, whereas we did it on April 30.Dow and Dax bottomed on May 14th whereas Nifty did it on May 18th.
Looking at amplitudes,
 The Dow is the least performer among the top three US Indices.While NASDAQ is primarily Domestic Institutions, S&P is essentially retail and the DOW is International Funds.
This only means there is still some reluctance from International Funds into Dow and this could be an important consideration going forward.

Fibo time extensions of various lows of DOW point out June 08 and 09 to be important dates.
If the Retro Venus Sqr Mars right now with a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05, does not slow down the market, then it can only be slowed down by Sun square Mars of June 08-10.
As mentioned in previous blogs, we still continue to believe in one more leg up in June.
For that we need some moderation in the bullishness now...
With Kaala Sarpa Dosha out of the way, issues other than Corona have started to come afore..We continue to remember that we are still under the influence of Saturn-Pluto-Jupiter conjunctions.
Nifty will continue to follow the mother market..