Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals Jan 29, 2013

This has been the dominant theme of our markets for some time.Domestic Institutions are selling while FII buying in larger quantities offsets this selling and keeps pushing the markets forward.
Astrologically Rahu represents foreigners and their activities and so when Rahu conjuncts Saturn on September 17, 2013,there could be a major trend change in this activity. Anyway it is too early to be bothered.
With this back drop we look at the wave counts, and this is how they look to me. February 08/11 could be an important turning date. Minor wave 3 could terminate and wave 4 could begin....

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013

We look at the current week by going into a future date (Feb 08 2013) and then travelling towards this week (Jan 28 to Feb 01, 2013.)
What do we see?

Jupiter after turning direct comes back to form a trine with Natal Neptune. This trine formation will be for the second time ( the last time we saw this was on January 22, 2013.And Nifty reacted from 6101 to 6008, in 2 two days. But since the trine formation continued to be intact then, Jupiter was moving retro into further inner movements with Neptune, we did not see further reactions.
But from Feb 08 onwards, Jupiter is going to gather speed and move away from Natal Neptune, which means the basic bullish trine formation will begin to develop serious cracks.  ……………………….(1)
By Friday the 13th, Rahu in Libra will be squaring Natal Uranus- this is indicative of more long term trouble……(2)
Mars and Mercury join hands and attack Jupiter squarely. Effect to be seen on Feb 11, Monday……(3)
While Sun forms a conjunction with Natal Uranus, more troubling is the square shown between Sun, Rahu and Ketu…..(4)
At 13:37 degrees Venus has completed its positive trine with Jupiter. ….(5)
There are no smaller or faster planets left in the arc Scorpio to Capricorn, to form trines with Jupiter……..(6)
Again, on Feb 11, Monday, Venus will be square with Saturn…(7)
So looking at the font colours, it looks like predominantly things are going to be downhill from February 08 onwards. But remember, the bid fella, Jupiter is in Taurus and he does not like changing trends when in Taurus. So between February 2013 and May 2013, we may expect a topping out, (the 5 wave phenomena), wave A downwards and a big wave B upwards, which may rival the tops in February, whether it is 6100 or 6200 or 6300, is immaterial.  
After Taurus, by May end, Jupiter moves into Gemini. Gemini is a dualistic sign and even worse, in Gemini, Jupiter will get into a square aspect with Uranus and an opposition aspect with Pluto. But all these are currently far away in August 2013 ( in fact we could witness an unholy trine relationship with Saturn somewhere in July 2013, where everything will look rosy for some time..) and so let us get back to the only thing which is real—the present moment. Now!
Let us back track. Between January 28 and February 11, there are ten trading days.
Astrologically, at least we expect February 08, to be a tipping point. What may happen in between?
On January 28, we are emerging out of a Sun-Jupiter trine. And Venus is emerging out of a trine with Ketu. But with Mercury in Moon and Moon in Mercury, Monday could be a slightly negative day. In fact with a Full Moon on January 27, 2013, we are on a Full Moon deviation period that is Moon is between Full Moon and First Quarter. And when Moon is in Cancer, historically we had always had a low which could be January 28. (Mind you, Iam not talking about a bottom, but a low).
We can buy a little confidently because traditionally the next Lunar top can be in Libra which is on February 04; 2013.It is also a Jupiter day- a direct Jupiter day.
So short on Monday morning, buy during the dying moments of January 28, 2013, hold it till January 31, closing hours. Short again on January 31, and cover on 04th evening. Simultaneously buy and sell everything on February 08th.
This is what Financial Astrology says. But let us be prudent shall we? Let us wait for the dame, Nifty to tell us what she intends to do? Let us follow the price movements first before deciding to trade.

Have a great week of trading! As a true blooded technician I have chosen to ignore the fundamental reality of RBI Interest rate effects and consequent market reactions.After all, we traders believe that the price reflects all other effects don`t we?  

Friday, January 25, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals-- Lunar Reversals Jan 24 2013

January28/29 2013, may be a reversal day- Nifty could bottom out in the near term on Jan 25 and start moving up, next week.

Nifty Astro Technicals for January 25,,2013

Nifty weakens for a third day, in a row.Still it is  moving only  inside the Keltner channel. FIIs continued their cash market, net positive purchases, to the tune of Rs 10263 million.However they have sold heavily in the directives segment, to the tune of Rs 6144 million.( By far, the highest this month.)This has erased the premium off Nifty futures. DIIs continue to sell-they sold a net of Rs 4139 million.
So, the FIIs seem to be short term short and long term long.
Look what is happening to the broader markets...

While the broader markets are selling off, Nifty is in a relatively comfortable situation.

Astrologically, the markets are going to improve next week. Let us wait and see...

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals January 23 2013

FIIs continue to buy in Cash Markets. They were net sellers in Derivatives market. Domestic Institutional Investors continue to sell.

But look at some related indices....

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals Jan 23, 2012

We just look a little closely at the aspects which we had discussed last week.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals Jan 21- 25 2013 ( Short Term)

Technicals part of Nifty Astro Technicals January 21 to 25 2013

Let us look at the technicals of our markets this coming week. Before we get into the wave analysis, here are a few charts...

I have used a 9 period Keltner channel which is shown as a green band in this weekly chart of Nifty futures.Coming week is the 34th week from December 20, 2011 and 34 is a significant Fibo number.

  Nifty Futures monthly has gone above the upper band of Keltner channels.This week or the week after there could be a reaction.
If we consider the second option of Nifty extending beyond its terminal pattern, then we have the following.

In this option if wave 5 extends, then the diametric pattern which we had been expecting may not be happening. But it is still early because Nifty could technically go up to 6335.90 and still the pattern of diametric could be valid.
Or else...

Nifty Astro Technicals-A few Fundamentals

An interesting trend is visible in the article in this link..
A few extracts: 
".....Now, some signs are indicating that maybe, possibly, the tide is beginning to reverse.
Stocks started 2013 with a bang. For the week ended Wednesday, U.S. investors ploughed $18 billion into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, the largest one-week total since June 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis hit....."

".... Fuelling expectations that a longer-term shift out of bonds and into stocks may finally take place is a growing nervousness that bond yields are dangerously low. As 2012 drew to a close, U.S. Treasury yields weren't far from record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve's unprecedented effort to pump money into the financial system through bond purchases. That sent prices up, and yields down….”
"...Emerging market stock funds attracted $5.83 billion of the net new cash in the week ended Jan. 16. Meanwhile, investors pulled $1.79 billion out of U.S. stock funds, the fund-tracking firm said.
Demand for stocks broadly speaking, has rebounded so far this year, with the latest inflows marking the second straight week in which retail  investors contributed new money. That has not occurred since April 2011, EPFR Global said. Last year, investors pulled $69.1 billion out of all stock funds while pouring $493.6 billion into bond funds, the firm added...."
Reading all of these together, 
  • People are perceiving bonds to be riskier going forward and are pulling money out of bonds.
  • This money  is finding its way into stock markets, where they perceive that the returns are far better in dividend yielding stocks rather than from bonds.
  • A substantial amount of money, out of bonds, is flowing into emerging market funds.
  • Indian stocks are considered to be a better bet among emerging market instruments, because the Government has been doing the right things in terms of attempting to reign the fiscal deficit, make foreign investors more comfortable with India,reduce subsidies,and re move bottlenecks in Infrastructure and projects investments. So more FII funds are expected to flow into our markets.  
  • Since the markets had been in an up trend for quite some time, money may flow into large caps and index constituents.
  • Real time economic effects are yet to be seen on the ground, but typically stock markets  react first and will front run the actual economy.
  • Government may continue this mode till the budget session. Post budget, they  will start taking populistic measures to appease the masses.This will have a negative effect on the markets and they will begin a prolonged negative cycle. 

Nifty Astro Technicals-Astro View Jan 21 to 31 2013

Last week we had expected Nifty to move up till January 18, 2013. We had expected to see a correction either on January 18 or within a few days.
We were expecting a translation of Venus conjunction Pluto before which Venus had squared Pluto.
Just like in Technical Analysis and in Wave Theory, the major trend or cycle will dominate and influence the medium or shorter trends, always. This is very true in Financial Astrology as well.
So what was the mistake I did last week? It was not ascertaining the underlying major trends first before examining the medium or shorter trends.
I shall not make this mistake again.
What constitutes Long, Medium and Short term trends in Financial Astrology?

  • Interactions between very slow and very distant moving planets constitute very long term trends. Eg: Uranus-Pluto-Neptune aspects to one another
  • Interactions between  distant moving planets constitute  long term trends. Eg: Uranus-Pluto-Neptune aspects to Saturn,Jupiter, Rahu and Ketu or aspects involving only Saturn,Jupiter, Rahu and Ketu.Also stationary and retrograde stations of these distant planets are trend determinants.
  • Interactions between  medium distant moving planets constitute  medium term trends. Eg: Uranus-Pluto-Neptune-Saturn-Jupiter,Rahu and Ketu  aspects to Mars, Venus or Sun.Aspects between Mars, Sun and Venus to one another also can be medium term, provided there are other signatures nearby.  Most often one or more of these aspects will be present in a cluster adding weightage to the moves. 
  • Mars, Sun,Venus and Mercury are fast moving planets and aspects and interactions among them leads to short term movements. Moon and the Ascendant influence very short term movements.
Coming back to Uranus- Venus -Pluto interactions, this medium term aspect can get postponed or diluted based on certain other long term aspects.Given below is one such example from the past.

Red line represents Uranus square Venus and Black line is Venus conjunct with Pluto.

Let us see the effect on the price chart...

 So, the current Uranus-Venus- Pluto translation also has got the potential to get modified.
How do we expect it to pan out?
To understand that better, we need to see a couple of long term/ medium term effects in the offing..

So far our understanding is that, for a slightly longer term, Neptune and Jupiter will cause bullishness.
For the medium term, Uranus and Mars will cause bullishness but reversals in the short term also is on the cards.
Jupiter when it becomes direct will cause reversal of the current up moves.
One more time we look at this week`s charts...

Mars get into a square with Rahu and Ketu axis. And Sun will trine Jupiter.
So what we see is positive and negative forces acting alternatively and in tandem.
What do we conclude:

Astrologically, Nifty is bound to go up higher till possibly May, 2013, because of Jupiter in Taurus.That Jupiter is about to conjunct with Neptune in the natal chart. So the bullishness at present may continue.This up move is also underlined by a conjunction between natal Uranus and transiting Mars  in Capricorn.
During this up move we have corrections ( not down trends) coming up because of the following factors:
Venus-Uranus-Pluto translation
Mars square to Rahu-Ketu axis
Mercury square Saturn
Sun square to Saturn on January 31, 2013.
That is also the day transiting Jupiter becomes direct.
So the week beginning January Nifty may top out, possibly after RBI`s announcement. Most probably when Moon comes to Leo, on January 29, 2013,in the period between Full Moon and Third quarter Moon.
The next turns may happen on February 05, 2013, when Mars conjuncts Neptune.

me request, as usual, not to anticipate. Use regular indicators such as
moving averages and Bollinger Bands to enter and exit the market, with adequate
stop loss protection.
All the best for the forth coming week!  

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals Intra day Jan 17 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals for January 17 2013

Nifty had chosen to close negatively today.
The critical resistance is at 6020 and supports are at 5970 and 5940.If these levels are breached, then we can be surer that Nifty has reversed.
But let us keep an eye on the liquidity situation..
FIIs had been consistently buying, even on down days.
What is it they buy?
 They are buying the cash market and selling  Futures.This means they are bearish in the short term and bullish in the longer term markets.
Domestic Institutions have been consistent sellers..

Here is the updated count.....

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals for January 16, 2013

Nifty for the second day today continued its up-move  We did expect that. Every passing day is increasing the sense of caution, however.
Here are the preferred wave counts and other related charts. Please also keep alive the second possibility mentioned in January 13th  post.

 I have drawn the all important 2-4 line. Violation of the line downwards and then a quicker retracement of the entire wave 5, to 5548 is what Neo Wave says, are the possibilities.The million dollar question is at what point and when will wave 5 top out? Or are we in wave 3 of 5?
Anyhow, here are the impulse distances and time taken for the travels.

An interesting line, this red dotted line!

And a monthly variation. Here I have also drawn the 80% Fibonacci lines of the pitch fork. You may draw your own conclusions.

We are at least actively considering a market top. We had also discussed how such a formation will not violate the Jupiter effect in Taurus, because we are also expecting a stronger and drawn out wave B if the top out occurs.
Of course if it is wave 3 we are then into a truly larger C wave which might extend right into May 2013.As of now, my take is 80% chance for the diametric and 20% for option 2, which is a bigger and extended wave of wave 3 of 5 of C.
This weekend could give an answer.'
Meanwhile whenever markets heat up or look extended, " Angels fear to tread where fools venture".
Be an angel and risk averse- allow the market to make its move and do not neglect stop losses.

Nifty Astro Technicals a few concepts explained

Some of you had asked that the Astro charts where Nifty price movements are placed on planetary timelines, are difficult to understand and that they be explained a little bit. Iam reproducing the charts with some explanation. Hope this helps.

Let us understand these vertical lines a little better.
Thick Blue Lines are dates when Jupiter and Sun are 90 degrees apart in the zodiac. This is called a square formation.
Thick orange lines are dates when Jupiter and Sun are 120 degrees apart in the zodiac. This is called as a trine formation.
Thick bluish tinged lines are Sun opposite Jupiter. This is when Sun and Jupiter are 180 degrees apart.
Look at September 07, 2012, at the far left of the chart. What do we see? Just one day before this aspect, Nifty bottomed out and reversed direction, to the upside. This is when Sun was square Jupiter.
Next see October 09, 2012, orange line. Again we see that, two days before the formation of Sun Jupiter trine, Nifty topped out and reversed direction.
Next see, the bluish tinged line on December 03, 2012.Within three days of this Sun- Jupiter opposition, we see Nifty topped out and reversed downwards.
So what is our logical deduction? When Sun and Jupiter form aspects with each other, either square, trine, opposition or conjunction (I have not given examples of this yet), the market reverses either before or after the formation. Right?
Now look at the thick orange line on the extreme right side, on January 25, 2013.What do we see? Sun will trine Jupiter on that date. So going by our logic, Nifty should reverse direction either a few days before or after this aspect, correct? Let us park this deduction for a moment.
Now, in the chart,
Thick blue dotted lines are when Venus squares Jupiter.( We do know what a square means, don`t we?)
Thick orange dotted lines are when Venus trines Jupiter.
Thick bluish tinged lines are when Venus conjuncts Jupiter.
Let us now decipher these aspect effects...
On October 16, when Venus squared Jupiter, there was only a small reversal for two or three days. Essentially the market was in a congestion zone. There are other Astro reasons for this which we will see later.
On November 08, 2012, when Venus was trine Jupiter, Nifty topped out and reversed a day earlier.
On December 21, 2012, when Venus was square Jupiter, Nifty bottomed out and reversed upwards.
So what can we conclude? Most often when Venus and Jupiter are in aspects to one another, we can expect reversals. Sometimes based on other Astro signatures, effects can be nullified also. Sun Jupiter combinations appear more potent compared to Venus Jupiter combinations.

There are two more vertical bands to decipher.
One is mentioned as “Venus play with Uranus and Pluto and is shown in a blue band encompassed within blue datelines. This simply means that on January 14, Venus was square with Uranus and on January 16, Venus was conjunct Pluto. So what does this mean? Let us look at what happened when this occurred last time...
See the following chart. This was posted this Sunday, in fact it is one of a series which I had given in that post.
On November 25, 2011, Venus was square Uranus. Nifty bottomed out and reversed upwards. Soon after within two days of Pluto conjunction, Nifty topped out and again reversed. Now are these directions certain to happen? We can by no means be sure, because Uranus rules unpredictability. It can cause the market to go either way, often breaking supports and resistances.
Still yesterday, on January 14, 2013, Nifty reversed its short term downtrend and moved upwards again. On January 16, 2013, again Venus is conjunct Pluto. So there is a possibility of the upward movement getting terminated. If so on what date could that happen? Is there any astrological event in vogue?
To know that let us look at yet another chart… (Sorry, to put up so many of these!)
This is about Sun Mercury cycles. Imagine the Sun as an eternal hunter and Mercury as his hunting dog. Sun will never be retrograde and Mercury will frequently become retrograde.
So on Feb 06, 2012, Mercury catches up with the Sun from behind. In other words, the dog catches up with its master and enthusiastically runs forward. 

On March 13, 2012, Mercury turns retrograde ahead of the Sun. That is the hunter pulls the leash and makes the dog come towards it. Then on March 22, 2012, Sun catches up with Mercury, which is still retrograde. Now the Sun moves ahead and leaves Mercury in its retrograde motion. On April 04, 2012, Mercury turns direct and joyfully moves forward to conjunct its Master on May 28, 2012. And again runs forward to become retrograde on July 16, 2012. And the celestial cycle gets repeated endlessly.
Look at the red circles. Those are dates when Mercury was coming from behind and conjuncting Sun. We find there were reversals happening at that point. Most often the reversal effect is magnified or diminished by other Astro aspects and signatures nearby.
Now come back to the last circle, on the extreme right of the chart. Mercury is coming from behind and is about to conjunct Sun  on January 18, 2013, Friday. With the Astro signatures of Venus square Uranus and Venus conjunct Pluto nearby, could this be a turning date?
And continuing till January 25 (give or take a few days,) because we have Sun trine Jupiter, then?
The probability looks good isn`t it?
So we are anticipating a probability of Nifty moving up till January 18, and then reacting till January 25? Which wave scenario will unfurl? Let us wait and see.
Just read all the bold text together and you will see the logic of the jist.
I hope the Astro aspects juxtaposed on the Nifty daily charts do make sense now?
Let us not worry about how many such cycles are there. I shall keep bringing them up to as and when they occur. Only thing is I may not be able to explain so much in detail. But once you understand the basic principles, the rest is easy.
Remember; please consider Astrology as a leading indicator. Whether it is support or resistance or MACD or RSI we look to see past patterns recurring is it not? We base our deductions on that basis alone, right? Similarly we are using Astro cycles to give us some indications as to what the market could do.
One word of caution, is that do not get carried away and throw caution to the winds. I never trade without protection, even if Iam doubly sure. I have survived in the markets since 1990 solely because of risk management.. I did not even have computers back then. I remember plotting Reliance prices on graph charts manually. So with all the technology around and so much of knowledge around it is far easier to make money today, provided we take care of the fundamental principles of money management and risk management.
Let me also remind you, Iam only a humble student of astrology and technical analysis. So please do not take it on me, even if things do not turn out as I postulate here. But the experience is sure to enrich our trading lives, going forward.
Have a great day of trading, today and tomorrow!  

Nifty Astro Technicals for January 15, 2013

Nifty seems to have completed its correction on Friday at 5951 and started on the next impulse leg up. Now there are two wave possibilities...

Here is the second possibility....
We should know which way by the weekend or early next week.
Astrologically here are the look outs.
Venus has squared Uranus today. Within two days it will conjunct Pluto. This may  cause a reversal.The reversal may happen on January 18, the day Mercury conjuncts Sun. Thereafter is a million dollar question. Any way it looks like longs are ok till January 18.
Yet, let us still  wait for Nifty to show her way.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Nifty Astro Technicals for January 14 to 18, 2013

Last week we expected Nifty to be volatile and so it was. Even the euphoria of better than expected results from Infosys, could not prevent a market slide and we closed lower at 5951.30, after going  up as much as 6042.15.
This week begins with a few interesting declination and longitudinal scenarios.

  1. We had a Sagittarian New Moon on December 12, 2013.Mercury was at an extreme declination on that day.
  2. On December 13, Venus is at an extreme declination.
  3. On December 14, Moon is at maximum Latitude. Given an orb of one day, we have seen this kind of formation giving way to market reversals.
  4. We are entering into a Lunar Negative period from January 15 to January 31.
  5. Venus will first square Uranus and later on conjunct Pluto.This in itself has always given a market turn of medium proportions.
  6. Sun will move into Capricorn. Mercury will conjunct Sun and begin a new Synodic cycle.
  7. Rahu will move into Libra, away from its debilitation sign and will start influencing Saturn and vice versa.
We expect the market to move up this week and possibly top out on January 18.This move up is not expected to be smooth. In fact from January 15 itself, the negative effects of the Moon cycle will be visible.

Let us have a look at the New Moon Astro chart and see what it tells....

 Interestingly we find January 15 and the period January 25 to 28 as significant according to  the Ruling Planets. On January 15, Sun is in Capricorn and Moon will be transiting the houses Aquarius and Pisces, moving towards a First quarter Moon on January 19, 2013. Traditionally this has been a period of a reversal from a top, especially when Moon is in Pisces.

Let us have a look at what happens when Venus first squares Uranus and then conjuncts Pluto...

As we can see within the aspects or just afterwards, there is always a reversal, sometimes significantly so.Since this also coincides with Moon reaching maximum Latitude and the Lunar negative period beginning soon, it is better to be out of longs by the weekend ( January 18, 2013 ) Thereafter let the Market tell us what to do.

A look at the Technicals.....

When Nifty closed at 5951, it has technically encroached into the area of wave 2. In other words, the forming wave 4 has crossed into wave 2 territory.Wave 1 looks extended. So it appears as if the rise from 5548, is a terminal impulse. Wave 3 was shorter than wave 1 and by Wave principles wave 5 of 5 also must be shorter than wave 3. This means that wave 5 may top out this week itself. In that case, Nifty  may retrace the entire rise from 5548 in less than half the time-even 25% of the time.Since the rise up to Jan 18 would have consumed 41 days, we can expect a bottom of aforesaid proportions by the first week of February. However, since Jupiter is in Taurus, the ensuing B wave may be a longish or large one consuming time till after the Budget sessions.

Wish you all a happy Makara Sankranti- Safe and productive trading to all!