"Putting everything together,
1. The short term trend is down.
2.Next week could see two way movements.
3. Any rise maybe used to sell. Having said Market could come down some more before a sustained upmove begins.
4. Expect a bottom late next week, but do not anticipate and place orders.
5. Negativity could spill over into the week after next,before a sustainable bottom is formed.
6. We see divergences, but the price should move in our direction before positions can be taken positively.
7. Trailing stop losses are a must, because volatility could increase from here on."
Nifty behaved exactly as we expected.
Let us see what is in store this week...
We begin with the Astro charts for a change.....
Colour bars in the bottom of the chart, point out to a probable bottom formation right now.Since we have Venus and Saturn opposition effect of a crest, we may expect the market to go up and again come down by the time we have the settlement.For very short term we may sell the longs in a couple of days and again go short for the settlement. May 04 onwards, this longer term aspects will come into being and the markets may move more consistently.
In addition, by May 04th, Mars will be moving to Taurus and Venus to Gemini.Out of these two signs, Taurus is more important, because all planets passing through Taurus must necessarily meet the gaze of Saturn from Scorpio. All of them will have some destabilising effect bestowed upon them because of Saturn.
Let us see how Mars behaved last time it met Saturn opposition from Scorpio..
Since Mars is in Taurus for roughly 45 days, the first 0ne third when he traverses in Sun star, he depresses the market. And then there is a rebound...
What is the effect of Jupiter in Cancer on all these ?
Common factor is an immediate uptrend and then a pronounced fall..This means markets could turn down sharply in the middle of May and recover only in June, when Mars gets ready to move into Gemini.
Now other aspects could add up and change the game a bit. So I expect a good move till May 12/13 2015.
I looked into the 1990s also, but Mars had become retrograde in Taurus and that complicated matters a little bit. Nevertheless, we notice that the final one third time of Mars in Taurus always points out to an uptrend.
So our conclusions?
Astro Wise, Markets could turn now, go up, have some hiccups towards the settlement, then go up till May 12/13 and then come down tumbling down the hill once more. Next recovery could then be in beginning of June 2015.
Let us update our cycles and look at our waves...
Observe the portion in turquoise colour and the mustard colored portion both side of the point c..
We see tje cycle upto c was right translated and after c has been translating to the left. Left translating cycles are bearish.This means that the cycle after May 11, should see a good down move.
Why after May 11? Why not now?
This is because the blue cycle has been experiencing an inversion. Point d was a price bottom but blue cycle top. So for the inversion to be completed, we need a price top for a cycle bottom.And that is what I expect May 11 or thereabouts will bring in.Since the entire cycle is left translating, chances of prices piercing 8845 looks remote.
Further, the next blue cycle bottom could see a significant bottom and the red cycle bottom could coincide with a bottom by June 2015! Iam running ahead of time..so let us wait and watch for these developments!
Let us look at our Neo waves...
1.If prices gap down from here, then we conclude that abcde had been an extracting triangle and the bull market is over.
2. Wave e had shown more weakness than expected. Its b leg, instead of being smaller and thrust upwards in its c leg, had considerably come down to negate the upmove by nearly 100%.So abc legs of wave e could form an irregular flat..If wave b ends here and wave c commences up, then it will be a Normal flat and the chances of retracing the entire down move from 8845 is bright. Now wave b could go down some more and then reverse. Still the flat will be valid, but then the bull would have become considerably weakened by then.
3. After wave e, the next leg is f down. Since e itself shows weakness, I expect wave f also to be stronger in its downward thrust.
4. For the time being we expect wave c of e to commence and move the market upwards in a counter trend movement.
A couple of Gunner charts to show the angles...
Nifty has slipped out of its 45 degree uptrend line and is encountering resistance at the red arc.If 8250 is pierced then all bull bets are off and Nifty could fall to the 1x2 line.Circle shows the points where Time and Price square up.
Applying angles on the down move from 9119, we see Nifty resting at a crucial red arc and a 45 degree parallel line.A reversal could take it to 8650 levels.
1. Down trend is dissipating, but has not yet shown reversals.
2. Could reverse and move up for a couple of days and then come down for the Settlement.Volatility could be quite high.
3. Risk averse traders may not take any positions this week. If the market improves considerably, then take a small long bet..we can build on it later..
Once again..just don't anticipate. Let the price tell you that it is ready to move in your favour..