Friday, October 31, 2014

Nifty Neowave Update 30 October 2014

Here are the updated wave counts for Nifty:

Hourly Cycles have been updated here.
 Observe how Nifty is behaving to the second cycle pointed out in small blue arrows. The mustard colour square represents the middle area of the cycle. This time band reduces volatility and prices may sometimes decline also.
Cycles are prone for displacement. So November 03 can be 5 also.If Nifty comes near a downcycle, it is better to be alert, in case of any breakdown.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Nifty Cycles update October 29, 2014

When Nifty touched 5097, it reached the highest point so far since the bottom of 7724.The aqua cycles represent 40 day cycles.Since we have completed 63 bars so far, we may safely surmise that the entire aqua cycle is now right translating.This is very clear when we compare the market behaviour during the past aqua cycle.
This means the current trend has reached maturity levels and the risk reward ratio is not in favour of buying.This also means that  the next aqua cycle is most probably going to be bullish. And we may expect Nifty to now form a higher bottom.
In the very short term, if hourly bar closes below 8053, we may go short.
And once Nifty reverses, we may buy for positional trading.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Nifty Hourly Cycles Update October 28, 2014

The current cycle has crossed the half way mark and is still bullish. The current hourly bars are quite far away from the time line. However the bars have fallen out of the steep rise trendline. This means the momentum has slowed, despite an upmove today.Since the cycle top is near, we may expect some correction.
Watch out for a good bar reversal  or three continuous lower tops and bottoms on the hourly, to reverse long positions.
The momentum charts till a similar story. Reading together, we get a number of trade set ups.
Importantly, after a low in early November, we may expect a good rise, looking at the Weekly charts.

We will look at the wave counts tomorrow.

Nifty Cycles updated October 27, 2014

Now, we can clearly see the cycle turning.After a spike to 8064,Nifty has turned back.Mustard coloured highlighted area, is a small cluster of 20 hour cycle bottoming alongwith a possible larger cycle. I say possible because it is unclear how it will react yet. But we see the cycle has definitely turned down in the hourly and that is what matters for now.Today was a day for shorts.The first target seems to be the 7920-30 area. That corresponds to the first time line  area. ( Blue line). If Nifty accelerates down this timeline, then also the trend is affected and we wait for a larger correction.
If Nifty bouncesd from the time line, then also be ready for one more shorting opportunity. We recommend shorts because the cycle has turned down.It is seemingly down till November 3rd or 5th.
Please note we are trading now without any astrology or Neo wave! Our bottom line is to make money and all stuff available to us are only tools.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 27 to 31

Here are the updated Neo wave counts...

Time price square outs suggest that if may be difficult to go below 7724, but then we are in a time band of heightened volatility.
Nifty`s break out from 7724 has happened at an 81 degree upward slope. In two leaps, it had taken out both the 45 degree down lines from previous peaks. Unless something very dramatic happens, it is hard to visualise Nifty going below 7724 immediately.7900 and 7850 look likely downside targets.C wave mentioned above should terminate here, if Nifty obliges.
Being in the market, we should of course be prepared for any eventuality and have adequate protection of our positions.
Astrological Picture for the forth coming week...

For the past several weeks, I had been highlighting the destabilising effect of Rahu, when first Mercury was conjunct with her, then Sun , then Venus and then Mercury again when he was retrograde. Now for the last time Mercury will again conjunct with Rahu this week. This can have a negative impact on the market. Mercury is the significator for communication and he is conjunct with Rahu on Oct 29/30. This happens to be the day of FOMC meeting.
Coming to Mercury again, we had observed that when Mercury went retrograde on October 04, no change in trend happened. Nifty continued to drift down when the markets opened after Puja holidays. We have seen that if a trend change does not happen when Mercury goes retrograde, then it will happen during the mid period. Accordingly we saw a bottom at 7724 on October 17.
Another factor was the powerful Sun Pluto followed by Venus Pluto squares which were indicating bottoms. Look at the reversals everywhere. They are quite powerful is it not?
Coming back to Mercury, when he becomes direct, the trend will change again. So a top formation is round the corner. Now add Rahu`s destabilising effect, and we could have a quick down move.
Redeeming factors from a bull`s point of view is that Jupiter is sextile to Rahu and Mercury and trine to Ketu. So the damage will be contained. Also both Ketu and Jupiter are in Mercury stars. Now that Mercury becomes direct, energy flows might improve.
I had also pointed out in a different post, the effect of Solar Eclipse. That also points to a bottom formation after the eclipse. So all told the coming week will be very volatile and the bias is negative.
Mars is going into extreme declination. That is another negative.Mercury also is moving slowly. It has to pick up speed if things have to improve.Sun is in debilitation, in Libra.
Time cycle wise. November 3 to 5 seems to be a bottom formation time..
There are several interesting trends in the coming weeks...
Jupiter is going to square Venus, Sun and Mercury.Mars and Pluto are going to conjunct and then Mars will square Uranus.
All three fast moving planets will have to meet Saturn in Scorpio.
But those can be examined in a separate post.
Stay well and prosperous!

Thursday, October 23, 2014

October 23, 2014 Cycle Update

I have updated all hourly bars till today..
Interesting to see the hourly rising from the October 17 bottom.The elliptical path is illusory and has no relevance.Now the bars are near to the blue cycle top. So momentum should decrease and reversal may happen. 7930 is the first support followed by 7860.
On Monday, if we see a bar reversal, that is if the hourly bar closes lower than the previous  bar low, then we can safely short till the levels mentioned above.
If Nifty strengthens on 27th also or is  flat, then the next bottom should be expected around 7860 levels.If 7860 does not hold then it is back to 7720  levels.Expected date of this bottom is around November 03, 2014.
Since Nifty has gapped out of the downward blue trend line, it is highly unlikely that 7720 will be broken.
Si if we see a bottom in hourly the next cycle is about to begin and we can confidently buy.

Nifty Astro- Saturn`s movement into Scorpio

On November 02, 2104,Sunday,at 02:05:45 am, Saturn moves from Libra into Scorpio.He remains in Scorpio, till October 25,2017, Wednesday,03:37:53 pm.That is for a full 3 years.
Now, our interest is how could this period be for the markets?
Iam sure we are interested to know, at least how it will be for the coming quarter, right?
I just went back to see how our market performed during the last sojourn of Saturn in Scorpio. Our Nifty was not even born then and so I had looked up at Sensex.
Since Saturn takes 30 years to complete the zodiac of 12 signs, the last time he was in Scorpio, was in 1984 December, till 1987 December.
Have a look at this chart...
Saturn in Scorpio, was very positive!
He took the market from 250 odd levels,( 250, my goodness! Sensex which is at 26,787, was such a small baby then!) to 650+ and brought it down to 400+, by the time he left Scorpio.
Of course Saturn alone was not responsible for this, but he is an important member of the larger council of planets who very definitely have a say in the way the world is influenced. So we may expect Saturnian influence to prevail.
So what observations can we make?
1. Saturn in Scorpio is definitely positive for equity markets especially in the initial stages.
2. His initial retro period is not a problem.
3. But when other major planets also get involved in creating an energy vortex by their positions and by their aspects to one another, then things could get ugly.
4. When Saturn becomes stationary direct, then the trend resumes once again.
5. If the longer retrograde period of Saturn coincides with other long term planetary aspects, then major trend changes happen in the markets.

Let us look at the skies in November 2014:
Apart from a Mars Pluto conjunction, a Pluto Uranus square triggered by a Venus Uranus square,there is not enough powder keg to ignite the markets downwards.Mars Pluto conjunction is no joke, but it may not provoke a prolonged decline yet.
On December 08, 2014, Jupiter turns retrograde.First sign of trouble.
Throughout the month, Venus, Mercury and Sun trigger the Pluto Uranus axis and cause issues regarding debt, deflation and transformation to be brought to the fore front.
On January 15, 2015, we see bigger planets getting into the act.
1.Pluto Uranus axis is triggered by Ketu and Rahu,which is Uranus conjunct Ketu  opposing Rahu and square Pluto.
2. On 16th Jan Mars will square Saturn.
With Jupiter also retrograde, the scenario is fast deteriorating.

To conclude, Saturn in Scorpio ought to be positive, at least in the initial stages.
When major planets get involved in January 2015, uptrend could die rapidly.
So it appears that the markets could go up till January 2015 by which time, large planets get into action and a trend change could happen.
By August 03, 2015, Saturn becomes stationary direct once again and that could start a final upleg, which could take the markets into 2016.
1992-2000-2008-  2016--this sequence could get activated then!
This is just an empirical understanding. Let us use this information along with other technical tools to get better conviction.
This is what I had been writing in this space since the last two months.
Please give your valuable comments.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Nifty and the Eclipses- An Analysis

We had a total Lunar Eclipse on October 08, 2014 and now we have a partial Solar Eclipse on the night of October 23, 2014, ( morning of 24th in fact) between 1.08 am and 5.22 am.
Now eclipses have been coming and going and every time one comes up there is a lot of speculation as to what effect it could have on us and especially on the Financial Markets.
A Solar Eclipse occurs only when a New Moon occurs. In fact a solar eclipse is nothing but a specialized type of New Moon or Amavasya as we call it in India.
As traders our interest is in knowing what was the effect of these eclipses on Nifty in the past years.
I have simply plotted the Eclipse dates on to Nifty daily and here is what we see...

The chart is a daily from May 2012 to the present date.
Red lines indicate Solar Eclipses and Black lines indicate Lunar Eclipses.
There are some interesting observations to be made:

  1. Only in May 2012, we had a solar eclipse followed by a Lunar Eclipse.
  2. Between April 25 and May 25, 2013,we had two lunar eclipses with a Solar Eclipse in between.
  3. Rest of the cases are of lunar eclipse first followed by solar eclipse.
  4. When the Solar Eclipse comes first of the duo, market reversal happens within the time zone of the eclipses and mostly the trend continues.
  5. A triple combination as seen between April 25 and May 25 2013, definitely destabilises the market and causes an intermediate trend reversal.
  6. In cases of lunar first and solar next, during these phases, the market goes straight past the New Moon till the date of Eclipse and reverses direction only after the Solar Eclipse.
  7. In all cases where it is Lunar first followed by Solar, the trend continues in the original direction. So the eclipses act as sort of a speed breaker to the trend.This is only to be expected because Eclipses reduce the energies of the luminaries, Sun and the Moon, at least temporarily.
This eclipse is happening when Rahu is in Virgo. So I thought it would be a good idea to go back 18 years and see what happened when Rahu was in Virgo last time......
The trend in 1996 was an intermediate  (or long term?) down trend and we had a lunar followed by a solar in September and October 1996.Market continued past the Full  Moon and reversed close to the Solar Eclipse and then after forming a top after the eclipse it continued with the original downtrend.
In October 2014, also the market continued past the Full Moon of October 08 and formed a seeming reversal on October 17, 2014.It has been rising since then.
So there is every possibility that we form a top after the Solar Eclipse and decline to a bottom.
  1. And if this bottom, post the eclipse is higher than 7724, then the original bull trend continues till the year end.
  2. If the bottom post the eclipse breaks 7724, then we are going down till the year end. 
Of course, we want one answer.
Which of these has a better possibility?
For that we examine the day charts of solar eclipse day in 1996 and in 2014...

First set of charts pertain to 2014 October and below that we have the 1996 charts.
During the eclipse, Sun, Moon and Venus are literally one on top of each other in Libra.All of them are in Mars star.Mercury is afflicted by Rahu, but direction wise Rahu and Mercury are in alignment.Rahu is also in Mars star. Mars is in the star of Ketu. Malefic power is more and so a decline is round the corner.
But, but, but, both Sun and Venus had formed squares in Pluto and both of them indicated a powerful bottom. I had been writing about this for quite some time now.
This happened from  October 04 to 06 and by October 17 we were just 6 trading  days after the square. And so the powerful bottom of October 17 came to be. If so the decline indicated by the eclipses could only be able to form a higher bottom, post the eclipse.
So out of choices 1 and 2 I prefer 1.

There are some interesting correlations between 1996 and 2014. See the writing in black...

This also indicates that we may have an astro inversion coming up. That means post the eclipse, after a bottom, market should go up for some time to come !

This is just an empirical analysis. Please base your trades only on the basis of competent technical advice, after observing due stop losses.
Please write to me your observations.

Nifty Weekly Time and Price Squaring

This is interesting. Nifty has been hugging the 45 degree  upwards timeline, all this while from August 2013. Whenever there was a breach, it was a small affair, lasting some weeks, and then it was back again over the 45 line.
Same is the case now also. Nifty has strengthened above the 45 degree line

Weekly momentum has reached the oversold territory but is yet to turn up. Once it does, then Nifty will be showing strength above the 45 line.
That would mean that the uptrend continues.
Downside risk will increase if Nifty breaks 7800.

Nifty Neo Wave update October 21, 2014

If Nifty continues to move higher, then the current c leg would possibly be the ending point of an x wave.Then there may be 3 more abc legs moving upward, end of which may also end  F leg of the large diametric formation  which began in Jan 2008 .

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Nifty Hourly Cycle update October 21, 2014

Here is the hourly cycles update for Nifty for October 21, 2014...
The portions shaded in Aqua Blue are the past two days hourly bars of Nifty.
As expected we can see Nifty moving up from the blue cycle low.
We also see Nifty gapping up exactly in the fastest momentum period of the blue cycle.
This cycle is approximately 20 bars old. Since the entire blue cycle is about 80 bars, half way mark is 40 bars, which means we have another 20 bars of price rise.
However the larger 147 hour cycle ( thicker red) and the sub cycle  ( grey) of our 80 bar cycle  are about to bottom out by October 23rd or 27th.
So, from a trading point of view, any spike from here should be ignored and we should wait to buy the dips which may happen when Nifty obeys the larger hourly cycle.
Another important observation...
We go to the beginning of the red cycle and observe.
Nifty had spiked up very early in the cycle to 8031, and continuously moved down. So the red cycle was a left translated cycle.
And so we were bearish.
We can see all the sub cycles had left translation and Nifty finally came down to 7724.
Nifty had formed a bar reversal on the daily at the 7724 levels. This bar reversal happened near a cycle low. So we expect that this new cycle will not be a left translated one.For that 7858 should not be taken down on an day closing basis.
If 7858 is taken out decisively, then we conclude that Nifty is going lower and at the next rise we short. In other words, the new cycle also would turn out as a left translated one.
But nothing of that sort has happened yet.
We conclude that chances of a buying dip happening is good and that dip, if we buy, we can benefit when Nifty moves higher.
So what is our positional trade?
If long already, continue to be long but move the stops higher.
If no position, then wait for the next immediate dip to buy.
Cycles as notice are quite talkative. They do have lot more to say!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Nifty Hourly Updated view Oct 20, 2014

I have updated the hourly chart with today`s movements as well. The coloured portion is of two day movement now. We see that after the cycle bottomed out at 7724, Nifty has moved up sharply as part of the initial thrust out of a cycle. The question is "is the new cycle right translated or left?"If Nifty weakens in the first four hours in tomorrow`s trade, below 7850, then the new cycle is a right cycle and Nifty will weaken further. It could come back close to 7724 levels.On the other hand if Nifty strengthens beyond 7900, then we are on a left translated cycle and we may buy.In such a case, Nifty could go to 7960 initially.

Nifty Astro View October 20, 2014

Some of the important astro formations are depicted here.
1. We are in the reversal time of Sun square Pluto and Venus square Pluto.
2.Mars is moving out of Scorpio. Just see the damage Mars brought about when he was strong in Scorpio. The day Mars entered Scorpio, the market topped out.
3. From today Mars is in Sagittarius till  November 27.Sagittarius is a sign of exaggeration and Mars likes aggression. Once Mercury becomes direct, Jupiter also will gain strength, since Jupiter is in Mercury star. That should be positive for the markets.
4. Mercury also did not effect any trend reversal when he became retrograde. So  most probably in the mid period he should contribute. His effect had been delayed by his affliction by Rahu.
5. Interestingly when Mercury was direct and went through Rahu affliction, markets tanked. When he is reverse and getting conjunct with Rahu, it should case a positive effect. Then this also means when Mercury becomes direct again and confronts Rahu, another reversal should take place. This is the subject matter for October 26th onwards.
6. Sun and Venus are beginning their long conjunction now. Venus is in her own house and Sun enters his house of debilitation.The conjunction may not have enough strength for a sustained up move.
7. Ketu Jupiter trine also should show strength, but possibly after Mercury regains strength. Both Ketu and Jupiter are in Mercury  stars. 
8. The party spoiler could be the eclipse and Mercury getting caught in between.

So we could have an upmove, but it may not be very sustainable. Trend strength is better after Diwali. 
In short, volatility continues. Be cautious till this eclipse goes away.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 18 2014

In this post we will look at the Neo waves of Nifty and astro correlations if any..
We begin as usual with the monthly charts...
I have gone back to the diametric count of ABCDEF followed by a final G down leg.
1. If after E, we count the impulses as 1,2 and 3 ending at 8180, the third wave looks too well channelled. In an impulse way, the waves do not channel.I was hoping that the third wave would break the channel, by crossing 8250 but it did not.
2.If we assume that wave 3 has topped out then the next wave 4 should form a complex correction for about 7 months, that is upto April 2015.This is possible, but somehow does not look probable.
So we will park the Ascending triangle followed by impulse wave for the time being and go back to the diametric correction.
If so, then the daily chart should look as follows...

I have shown the expanded chart of the current F wave, which is a complex correction involving two diametrics, connected by an x wave.
The most important questions right now, are
1.Has the second diametric ended at 8180, at the second g?
2. Has the larger degree F wave ended?
3.Has the larger G wave down started? What would decide this?

Let us expand the last two daily waves and see further....
Option A.Wave g as a zigzag has consumed 19 trading days and moved the price from 7540 to 8180.
As per Neowave, if a previous trend has to reverse,then the last leg of the previous trend must be retraced in faster time.
Now the move from 8180 down has so far consumed 25 trading days and the price has not gone below 7540.
So according to this analysis, larger F wave is not yet complete. And possibly there could be another x wave followed by upward correction possibly as a flat or more likely as a triangle which could end larger F wave.
Option B: Now if g had concluded not as a zigzag, but as an Extracting Triangle,at 8160, then the development post 8160 has still time left, to retrace wave g in faster time.Another 14 trading days, to be precise. So within the next 14 trading days, if Nifty breaks 7540 and it reaches the channel bottom ( see the daily chart, the 0-x line extended), then we conclude that larger wave F has indeed completed and we are in for a deep correction of G wave for the next 13 months.
Looking at the overall economic environment, some of the results which have come in, political and governance performance of the incumbent Government and the counter steps being taken or proposed to be taken by the Western Governments, my bias lies with option A.
Also the Gann angle calculations which I had shared in this blog some time ago seems to indicate some more upmove.
The only difference in my recent counts is that I tend to consider the current wave environments as corrective.
All this is fine, but how does the present tradeable scenario look like?
Let us look at the hourly charts...

We seem to be in a complex correction to the g wave. Recently we had broken down from a descending triangular formation and achieved 75% projection of the triangle, downwards. At present we seem to be in upward b with overhead resistance at 7848.After that I expect another down leg to complete the c wave. If b wave becomes very strong, then the c will fail later.
So the waves say be bullish on hourly, but be cautious because there may be a c round the corner.
Just compare with what the cycles and the momentum have to say!

Nifty Technicals Cycles Update October 17 2014

Given above is the hourly cycle chart update. I have used only two cycles 81 and 147. Even 147 is an adaptation of 160, so it is really one cycle.Once we understand this we can go to multiple cycles. Last time the blue cycle bottomed out 18 hours after a low. So this time also we had the same time band in consideration. Possibly because some other larger cycle was in action and so the market seemed to make a low yesterday at 7724. Thereafter the next cycle seems to have started. The next 30 bars could be bullish or bearish. If the market tops out before the next 3 trading  days, then we are in for another new low. If not we are going higher.
Just have a look at the nature of cycles in this chart, for better clarity...
Next we look at the daily chart for more clarity...

As per daily we may have the next low on October 22 or 27 ( I have not considered Muhurat trading.) A more significant low on Nov 3 to 5. Both dates match with the hourly also.
So it looks like the present hourly bounce is more of a dead cat bounce. Or at best whatever up move we get may be retraced.
What do the momentum charts say?

Since weekly and monthly look negative yet, our bias will be on sell on rises for positional. And buying for intraday. Of course the moment we see one downward bar  reversal in the hourly we will go short. Remember, going long is actually counter trend movement.
We will see the wave counts and astro picture in a separate post.  

Friday, October 17, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 16, 2014

Our friend Harish had asked about hourly time cycles of Nifty and whether we could use them for trading.
We definitely can! Cycles are as valid in shorter time frames as they are in longer time frames. However, they are less stable than the longer cycles and so we should use them with other technical tools.
Have a look at this chart....
 Red lines represent 147 day cycles and blue lines represent 81 day cycles.These have been plotted from a previous significant low. Significant lows are when several cycles bottom out together. Thereafter based on the influence each is subjected to, they move out keeping in phase with one another.
We can see how,  near an important low, both the cycles came together.In fact the rally which occurred after that August 08 low, took every one by surprise, in its aggressiveness,With this cycle info, we could have traded the rise confidently.
Sometimes we see the market lows forming just after the cycle lines or before them. That is where we se other technical tools to understand the movement better and time ourselves.
I have measured here the cycle displacements by those small, coloured rectangles.
Those are expanded in the chart here....
The rectangles and the bars are more visible here.From the left rectangles, we infer that the red cycles were 18 bars late and the blue cycles were 18 bars early.
The next blue circle is due within 8 bars.That means another market low is due by eod tomorrow or, the blue cycle is early by 8 bars and the market bottomed out today.In other words, the late phase of 18 days has been reduced to 8 days.This is only a possibility.
To narrow down our choices, we look at other technical tools..

Nifty has broken out of the downward sloping channel and closed below it. So some more weakness is indicated.Hourly momentum is oversold but has not bounced yet.So we wait for a strong reversal signal. That would also mean one of the  cycles has bottomed out and it is time for going long.
But only after we get a reversal confirmation.
Or else the market could still go down.Any which way, since the cycle is due within 8 bars, ( 1 day), we should know in a couple of days.
The longer red cycle is due between Oct 23 and 26. So between tomorrow and October 23, we may expect a top. If the top takes time to form, then we are going much higher. If the top is formed within 18 bars, then we will be going down further.Which means it would be time to short the market.
In the further right side of the chart, we see one of the blue cycles bottoming out on November 03.
Remember in an earlier post I had mentioned the possibility of a daily cycle bottoming out by November 03 to 06th?  That could be a good low.
Astrologically, we are in the mid period of Mercury retrograde.So a trend change is possible. Tomorrow, retrograde Mercury meets his Master, the Sun.We will be on the 7th trading day after Venus squared Pluto.There is  potential for a low.
Rest, of course is in the hands of Lord Shiva.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Nifty Cycles October 14, 2014

In technical analysis, we spend far too much time agonizing over price levels. Actually, time is also very important. In fact advanced Gann theories emphasize that price and time are interchangeable. One way we could measure time in market parlance is through the analysis of cycles.
Market movements are nothing but the composite effect of several cycles acting in unison. Some cycles are very long and some are very short. But all of them are always acting. When significant lows are formed, then several cycles bottom out immediately.So always, in cycle analysis, it is the bottoms which are important.
Here is a chart on  simple daily cycles which keep repeating...
What do we see? The dotted lines are getting bunched up by November, 03, 04 and 05.So we may expect an important low to be formed by that time.Saturn would just enter Scorpio,Debilitated Sun and  Venus could be conjunct in Libra and Ketu and Jupiter would be parting ways from a trine formation.Since the last quarter of a cycle is negative, we must be cautious from October 30 itself.

Is everything going to collapse?
Not really. Look at the monthly chart of Nifty....

Cycles are 18 to 21 months duration and are represented by black lines.The next cycle low is due by March 2015.
The relevant questions are, 
1. Will we see the fractal envelopes repeating? That is will Nifty form a shallow low and keep moving up later on? 
2. Or will she spike out and then form a sharp low?

Iam inclined to the later, that too by the second week of January 2015.Any how, there has to be one big upleg coming, as per this cycle analysis.
Enjoy the unexpected Holiday!

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Nifty Technicals update October 14 2014

Our friend Pankaj had asked an interesting question.In the 30 min chart above, whether the point marked as 7832 c was not the completion of c, but the point marked as a ( 7797) was the completion of c? His reasoning is that the wave after 7797 has made a perfect impulse, as shown in the 5 min chart above.
My take is as follows.
1. I do not expect c to go down below 7797..c need not necessarily do so. For example if c is part of a triangle, then c would be smaller than b, right?
2. The environment is conducive for a triangle and not for an impulse.S&P is down, whereas inflation data and Reliance results favour bullishness. So majority participants are confused and that confusion is prevalent in Nifty movements.
3. Mostly impulse behaviour would be seen when world markets move in tandem..
4. Even by wave counts, if we shift c from 7832 to 7797 point, then degree wise c wave would not match.
Any way thanks a lot to Pankaj for this response. These things ae what makes writing this blog worthwhile.

Nifty Technicals for October 14, 2014

Nifty seems to be undergoing a complex correction in the recent legs of 30 min chart.What is of practical interest to us, is what will Nifty do next. It has formed "a"wave of three legs.
Currently it is in "b".Our interest is to know whether we have a flat formation here. So in this "b" leg, we must see an abc  and also to know how far Nifty will travel.Minimum distance b wave has to travel is upto 7905. But " b" also can travel beyond the beginning of "a" ( 7972).If one is long, then 7905 becomes crucial. If Nifty reverses from 7905, then we can go short at 7905. "c" should start downwards. In fact the size of b will tell us,  what will be the next move...  

Monday, October 13, 2014

Nifty Long term chart

Europe looks shaky. Gold and Silver have entered multi year bear market. Commodities are all down. Crude is entering a bear market.If S&P closes below 16334, then it is going to go into a reversal mode.
So what about Nifty? To understand I had looked into very long term charts of Nifty.
Here is the chart.
See how the bull trend respects the 45 degree parallels.A few more months of upmove is left before it tops out.January 2015 seems a likely month.

Nifty Technicals Oct 13 2014

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 13 to 17, 2014

It had been wild since September 26, 2014. But then we had been expecting such high volatility from an astro perspective. This week we may start seeing the beginning of the end.But it ain`t over yet.
Let me explain, what I meant...
I had been pointing out the destabilising effect of Rahu when the faster planets conjunct with him. It began with Mercury conjunct Rahu on September 16.Last week it was the turn of Sun.
If we see the chart on the left, you we see Rahu and Sun are still conjunct...Look how Mars and Moon add fuel to the fire!
Then   at 22 degrees, Venus is waiting her turn to confront Rahu. This will happen as the week progresses.Also I had pointed out last week that Sun Pluto and Venus Pluto squares are completed. So we are in the time band for a trough. Which means mid week we are in for a bottom..By the week end, Mercury retro meets his Master, Sun.That also should aid the reversal.Still a sustained reversal is some time away..Maybe we should be out of shorts by mid week and reach a wait and watch zone.
Here are the chart updates...
Maximum slippage I expect is 7835. If Nifty closes below this, then I think it is more bearish than we thought.
Or else, after some base formation, expect the next upmove to 7956 levels, after some resistance at 7920 or thereabouts. This is just a forecast..not a prediction. So be absolutely sure to commit money, only if you see the market moving as per the expectation..In such volatilie period. stop loss is a must..

Friday, October 10, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals update:October 09, 2014

If there were a roller coaster, then this is the one!
Just look at what the Dow is going through....
In all my recent articles I had been emphasizing on the volatility in world markets, Nifty included..While such volatility is difficult to explain ( not impossible) technically, Astrology provides ready answers.Our humble pranams to those great Masters who had revealed so much to us!
Have a look at this Astro Technical Chart....
Mars Uranus trine
Sun Uranus Opposition with Lunar Eclipse
Sun conjunct Rahu
Venus square Pluto

I think we are about to see  one more bottom, before a take off.
Better fasten your seat belts. You could be blown away!
And never trust a trend when Mercury is retrograde. He is known as the Universal trickster.He is retrograde in Libra. It is all about balance!

Here is an immediate chart....
 7910  and 7843 are immediate supports. Time limit  2 days.