Sunday, October 19, 2014

Nifty Technicals Cycles Update October 17 2014

Given above is the hourly cycle chart update. I have used only two cycles 81 and 147. Even 147 is an adaptation of 160, so it is really one cycle.Once we understand this we can go to multiple cycles. Last time the blue cycle bottomed out 18 hours after a low. So this time also we had the same time band in consideration. Possibly because some other larger cycle was in action and so the market seemed to make a low yesterday at 7724. Thereafter the next cycle seems to have started. The next 30 bars could be bullish or bearish. If the market tops out before the next 3 trading  days, then we are in for another new low. If not we are going higher.
Just have a look at the nature of cycles in this chart, for better clarity...
Next we look at the daily chart for more clarity...

As per daily we may have the next low on October 22 or 27 ( I have not considered Muhurat trading.) A more significant low on Nov 3 to 5. Both dates match with the hourly also.
So it looks like the present hourly bounce is more of a dead cat bounce. Or at best whatever up move we get may be retraced.
What do the momentum charts say?

Since weekly and monthly look negative yet, our bias will be on sell on rises for positional. And buying for intraday. Of course the moment we see one downward bar  reversal in the hourly we will go short. Remember, going long is actually counter trend movement.
We will see the wave counts and astro picture in a separate post.