Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Nifty Hourly Cycle update October 21, 2014

Here is the hourly cycles update for Nifty for October 21, 2014...
The portions shaded in Aqua Blue are the past two days hourly bars of Nifty.
As expected we can see Nifty moving up from the blue cycle low.
We also see Nifty gapping up exactly in the fastest momentum period of the blue cycle.
This cycle is approximately 20 bars old. Since the entire blue cycle is about 80 bars, half way mark is 40 bars, which means we have another 20 bars of price rise.
However the larger 147 hour cycle ( thicker red) and the sub cycle  ( grey) of our 80 bar cycle  are about to bottom out by October 23rd or 27th.
So, from a trading point of view, any spike from here should be ignored and we should wait to buy the dips which may happen when Nifty obeys the larger hourly cycle.
Another important observation...
We go to the beginning of the red cycle and observe.
Nifty had spiked up very early in the cycle to 8031, and continuously moved down. So the red cycle was a left translated cycle.
And so we were bearish.
We can see all the sub cycles had left translation and Nifty finally came down to 7724.
Nifty had formed a bar reversal on the daily at the 7724 levels. This bar reversal happened near a cycle low. So we expect that this new cycle will not be a left translated one.For that 7858 should not be taken down on an day closing basis.
If 7858 is taken out decisively, then we conclude that Nifty is going lower and at the next rise we short. In other words, the new cycle also would turn out as a left translated one.
But nothing of that sort has happened yet.
We conclude that chances of a buying dip happening is good and that dip, if we buy, we can benefit when Nifty moves higher.
So what is our positional trade?
If long already, continue to be long but move the stops higher.
If no position, then wait for the next immediate dip to buy.
Cycles as notice are quite talkative. They do have lot more to say!

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