Sunday, September 27, 2020

For week of September 28 to October 01 2020

 Nifty has clearly formed a lower top at 11618 compared to the previous top of 11794 and what is more, it has breached swing lows of 11185,11111  and 10882 on closing basis. This was accompanied by heavy and sustained FII Selling.

The question uppermost in our minds is has the rally from March 23 2020 ended? Or is this a healthy correction from which the Index turns back again and scale new highs of 12,000+?

Let us look at astrological indications and see whether there are some sign posts for us pointing a direction into the future.

In the post for the week of  September 14th, we had indicated how Ketu`s entry into Scorpio sparks off a  correction from high levels. 

Let us examine a couple more long term aspects to see if there is any correlation with our understanding from Ketu`s movement.We look at slow moving planets only because they are the trend setters for long term trend changes.  Ketu is a slow moving planet.

  Red dotted vertical lines are the dates when Jupiter and Neptune were 60 degrees apart.

Market top was formed around February 20 2020, and July 27 saw a continuation of the rally from March 23 bottom.Jupiter and Neptune will form a last sextile aspect this October 12. In fact the shadow effect shall commence from October 02 itself.

How did this aspect fare in the past?

In 1973 in a declining market caused by the oil crisis, we had three stations of this aspect as shown above. Market formed an important secondary top between second and third aspect before declining further.

We see the same pattern in 1968 -1969.Secondary top between second and third aspect before a bigger decline.

In 1955-1956, it was even more spectacular. The bull market from September 1953 ended between the second and third aspects of Jupiter-Neptune sextile.

Our Nifty is also between the second and third aspects of Jupiter Neptune sextile and has seemingly formed a secondary top. So this aspect is suggesting the likelihood of the Bear market continuing beyond October 12, 2020.

Now let us look at the black dotted vertical lines. They are the dates of Jupiter Pluto conjunctions in 2020.April 07, June 30 and November 12, 2020.The first was formed just after a crash bottom, second during a powerful upthrust and the third is still awaited.

Let us look at history..This is a very rare aspects..three Jupiter Pluto conjunction in close proximity and so we had to travel back quite a bit.  

In 1955-56, we see the market forming an important top between second and third aspect, a retest after the third aspect and then a decline into 1957 

Long term decline of 1955 56 is much clearly seen here.

So all three aspects Ketu moving into Scorpio, Jupiter sextile Neptune and Jupiter Pluto conjunction all point to more declines in the immediate future for Nifty

Another notable and important aspect in 2020 is the aspects formed by Mars with the outer planets.

Between March 20 and 31, Direct Mars conjuncts with Direct Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn, right at the time band when the falling market forms a bottom.

Between August 04 and August 24, Direct Mars forms square aspects with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn where all three are retrograde. Within 5 days of these aspects, market form s an important top on August 31, 2020.

Between September 29 to October 19, 2020, Retro Mars will form square aspects with Saturn Pluto and Jupiter which are all Direct.We expect an important low to be formed around October 19.

The last aspect will be between December 23 to January 25, when all the planets will be direct.

On a more immediate scale, this week we have Saturn and Pluto both going Direct. This correlates to a crest or top formation in the week of October 05 and a trough formation in the week of October 12.

Most importantly, this aspect of Mars-Saturn square is happening when Mars is conjunct with Ketu in Navamsa. Do not let your anger or frustration or disappointment to affect your trading or living.Not a good time to commence any new activity.

Looking at the technicals of Nifty, 

Nifty ended its up-cycle of August 03 on 09th September after 27 days.We can see how the new cycle is bearish.

1. It could not take out the 11794 top of previous sub cycle.

2. It broke the swing bottom of 11185 of the previous cycle.

3.While the upmost from 9th September took 5 days to move from 11185 to 11618 ( 413 points ) it broke this up-move in just two days ( faster retracement ).The cycle has already moved six days now and only now is showing signs of a temporary bottom.

So the first sub cycle in this new cycle has likely ended on September 24 and we are in the next bearish sub cycle. Remember in bearish cycles, upmoves will be  faster but shorter and down-moves will be more prolonged. 

Nifty has taken support at the 200 SMA.First hurdle will be 11173 to 11185.If that is achieved then the next upward target is 11292 to 11298;If that is achieved then the final target will be 11410 to 11460.A reaction could form from any of these levels. So be vigilant and take profits quickly.

We will not be covering any other index or commodity this week.

All the best! 

Sunday, September 20, 2020

GOLD ---September 20 2020

Gold is trading in a historic price zone and is forming a bullish cup and handle formation on the long term charts.

We recently had a breakout and price has been consolidating. 

Consolidation is in the form of a Triangle and we are witnessing the last leg of the triangle being formed.



Bank Nifty September 21 to 25 2020

Unlike with Nifty, we find Bank Nifty is below all moving averages, 200, 50 and 20.This portends a bearish scenario. BN has closed below the 50 SMA consistently for a few days now.
The second sub cycle is still continuing and we do not yet know if it has bottomed out. 
As we can see, the second sub cycle is has completed 24 days so far and a top was formed in 10 days. That means the corrective part of the cycle took 14 days and this again is a bearish development.

I have extrapolated the 200 SMA here and it is likely to touch 24200 by September 25.That looks to be the ceiling as of now.
Immediately, Bank Nifty has to move above the Daily and Weekly pivot levels of 22095 to 22191.
Then beyond the R1 levels of 22405 to 22597.  
We expect a counter trend up move from here but it looks to likely be a weak up-move. Even if it is a little strong, let us be cautious because the market internals have already weakened

We have updated the Poc Chart here.Unless the price quickly gets back into the value zone depicted by the two outer parallel lines, Bank Nifty faces the danger of further weakening.
Since the subcycle is set to bottom out, we are expecting a pull back on the upside maximum to 24000.
On the downside if Bank Nifty breaches and closes below 21403, then the top is in place at 25232 on August 31 and the down move would have begun in Bank Nifty.
Extreme caution is advised with Bank Nifty because a trend change is on the cards. 


For week of September 21 to 25, 2020

As expected Nifty continued to move slowly this week and despite the late sell off, managed to close above the 20 SMA.Both 20 and 50 have crossed 200 SMA and this continues to be bullish.
However as observed last week, with Nifty weakening upto 50 SMA last week is pointing out to internal changes in the bullish structure.
Current cycle has completed 34 days and we expect a top either this week or next week.

Current up-move has completed 7 days. If we observe the previous two upmoves and how much they have moved in 7 trading days, we can see that.,
Between August 3 and August 12, Nifty had moved up by 439 points.
Between August 14 to 25, in the next up-move in 7 days had moved by 414 points.
In the current up-move, from Sept 09 to 18, Nifty had moved up by 398 points. So the upmoves are slowly losing momentum.

In the 14 days since August 31, when Nifty made a recent top, it had managed to retrace only upto 61.8 % only.
Clearly the bullish momentum is a little subdued.
Astro wise, we are now entering a crest zone. We had pointed out the possible effect of Ketu moving into Scorpio in the previous post on Nifty.
Effects of Sun in a trikona with Pluto and Saturn also should point out to a top formation.
Similarly the effect of Sun opposition to Neptune also may manifest as a top soon.

Jupiter had turned direct on September 13...This also is pointing to a crest before September 25
From September 28th, Mars will begin to square Saturn, Pluto and later on Jupiter.
This calls for caution.
Trade safe!


Sunday, September 13, 2020

Bank Nifty-for Sept 14 to 18, 2020

Bank Nifty has completed 29 days in the present cycle which comprises of two sub cycles.The first sub cycle was of 10 days duration and the second was of 17 days duration. The third cycle seems to be on, but is very tentative yet.This is because Bank Nifty has weakened considerably. Hopefully  this week, maybe after one or two days, we may see Bank Nifty rising and starting the third sub cycle in full earnest. There may be some more hesitation on Monday and Tuesday, which needs to be watched.  

We may get an idea of how much Bank Nifty has weakened from this comparative chart :

This comparison is done from August 28 to September 11. We know markets corrected on August 31, ( next working day after August 28 ).Money flowed out of Bank Nifty and allied sectors into Nifty IT and Energy, especially Reliance. 

The chart is self explanatory...All the resistances and supports are marked.Weekly Pivots, 20 SMA and the July 22 resistance needs to be convincingly overcome for a true blue move.
If Bank Nifty breaks the 50 SMA support, we may expect a swift move to 21400 levels.
In case Bank Nifty begins to move up, as we expect from the cycles, it could quickly move to 24100 area, which is the medium term point of control for Bank Nifty Futures price.

This is one of the most volatile counters. So trade carefully with adequate protection.  


Saturday, September 12, 2020

Week of September 14 to 18,2020

 This is what we had observed last week: "A swift recovery will indicate that there is strength in bulls. A weakening to 50 SMA will indicate that the underlying strength has begun to shift to the bears. No doubt a recovery cycle will still be there, but I would be very circumspect.If 11111 is breached and Nifty closes below that, then all bets are off. Currently I feel that possibility is a little remote."
Nifty opened at 11359 on Monday ( September 07 ) and gradually moved down to 11185 on  Wednesday  (September 09 ). That is, just 31 points above 50 SMA value of 11154 on September 09.On the same day, 20 SMA was at 11405. So we conclude that Nifty had considerably weakened and moved towards 50 SMA.
As said last week, the next recovery sub-cycle is still on and we saw Nifty recover from 11185 on Wednesday to    close at 11464 on Friday ( September 11 ) above the 20 SMA level of 11427.
So the next  bullish sub cycle has started.But let us bear in mind that since May 26 2020, Nifty had never reacted to the level of 50 SMA. It had always taken support on 20 SMA. That is did so on September 09 tells us that big players have started taking profits from their medium term bull positions.Such weakness is always a precursor to a top formation in not so distant future.
Let us see some past examples...

So we see the foot prints of Knowledgeable selling here...

Look at the first quarter of 2020...

Need not elaborate more, need we?

Let us focus on the  upcoming week..

80% retracement is 11446. Nifty closed above it at 11464.
Fibo extension points to a target of 12118.
Time cycles point to a date of September 21 with a five day orb. So 18 to 28 September is an important time band for a top.
Larger cycle has completed 29 days.
Within that, second sub cycle started on August 14 and ended on September 09.We are on the third sub cycle now.
This cycle will slowly begin to become bullish and most probably may take out 11794 on the upper side.
Cycle may end between September 18 to 28, with a significant top in the making.

This is just our analysis for education purpose. Please do your own research and consultation before taking any financial decisions. 

Let us look at what the planets are indicating..
Ketu is moving out of Sagittarius and Rahu out of Gemini. Ketu in Mercury star of Scorpio could trigger negativity.
This is what happened in 2002, when Ketu entered Scorpio..

Ketu is about to enter Scorpio, post September 20, 2020.So medium term caution is warranted.
Jupiter becomes direct on September 13,2020. Another negative indicator for the market. Jupiter is the biggest Bear of all planets. 
But effects may not manifest instantly. It may take at least 10 days minimum.
Meanwhile there are other short term bullish combinations...
Sun opposes Neptune and Sun trines Pluto. Both have the tendency to pull up the markets to a new crest within the next 10-12 days.
As we mentioned last week, Volatility can only increase from here for a small period. Astro technically the market looks to enter its lag...Trade with absolute caution and discard weak stocks sooner.

All the best.

Sunday, September 6, 2020

Week of September 07 to 11, 2020

 What a dramatic week!In one dramatic swoop, six days of uptrend was demolished in Nifty, on August 31. The uptrend rose to a crescendo to 11794 and dramatically reversed....Well the cycles and planets did forewarn us last week....Correction has now completed four days and we see desperate articles all over the net....!

Let us briefly examine what is in store..I say briefly because I intend to keep my posts, short...More of them but shorter.

Current sub-cycle has so far taken 15 trading days and a clear top was made on the 11th day. Sub cycle length is shown in dotted blue lines and the crest time is shown in red lines.Overall current cycle length is shown in black dotted lines. We have completed 24 trading days so far.
So we make some inferences here:
 1. The current sub-cycle is close to ending, possibly within a day or two. This means the present down-move may get arrested and another up-move may start within two or three days. 
2.Current cycle was heavily right translated. This means the next sub cycle also could be a bullish one and possibly the 11794 levels could surpass. We have to wait and see.
3. Last cycle was of 54 days. This cycle has so far done 24 days ( see the black dotted lines ). It is unlikely to be as lengthy as the last cycle. We hazard a guess that this cycle could also be in the 30s category....which brings us to September 18 to 25 as important cycle top dates to watch.
Taking a closer look at the Index,

 Entire rise started from August 14 from a bottom of 11111.That same bottom has 50 SMA approaching. So it is an important support.If Nifty touches this level and reverts, I would still consider as a precursor to a market top in the near future...All significant market tops show a breach and recovery first before a big break down.
It is significant that Nifty did not ever go down to 50 SMA since 27 May 2020. It had breached 20 SMA briefly but has always recovered. Now also, 20 SMA is breached and we have to see if there is a swift recovery from here.
A swift recovery will indicate that there is strength in bulls. A weakening to 50 SMA will indicate that the underlying strength has begun to shift to the bears. No doubt a recovery cycle will still be there, but I would be very circumspect.
If 11111 is breached and Nifty closes below that, then all bets are off. Currently I feel that possibility is a little remote.   

As mentioned last week, three signatures combined together to cause a top last week. Uranus retro effect, Venus opposite Pluto and Venus opposite Jupiter.
Venus opposite Saturn and Sun trining Neptune may precipitate a bottom this week.
By September 09, Sun trines Jupiter, but it is a weak cycle. So the new cycle beginning could be a little tentative. Next week we Sun opposite Neptune and Sun connecting to Pluto by way of a trine. Both are potent combinations and they could pull the market up.
When the market starts tomorrow, Moon will conjunct Uranus, the Master of suddenness! Would be interesting to watch what happens!
And September 09th, the Action Hero, Mars goes retrograde...Will it be advantage Bears by September end? We just have no option but to wait and watch!
Please trade safely. Volatility has increased and it is not going to go away anytime soon.
My pranams to all my Teachers of the past and the present, who are adding value to my existence!