Bank Nifty has completed 29 days in the present cycle which comprises of two sub cycles.The first sub cycle was of 10 days duration and the second was of 17 days duration. The third cycle seems to be on, but is very tentative yet.This is because Bank Nifty has weakened considerably. Hopefully this week, maybe after one or two days, we may see Bank Nifty rising and starting the third sub cycle in full earnest. There may be some more hesitation on Monday and Tuesday, which needs to be watched.
We may get an idea of how much Bank Nifty has weakened from this comparative chart :
This comparison is done from August 28 to September 11. We know markets corrected on August 31, ( next working day after August 28 ).Money flowed out of Bank Nifty and allied sectors into Nifty IT and Energy, especially Reliance.
The chart is self explanatory...All the resistances and supports are marked.Weekly Pivots, 20 SMA and the July 22 resistance needs to be convincingly overcome for a true blue move.
If Bank Nifty breaks the 50 SMA support, we may expect a swift move to 21400 levels.
In case Bank Nifty begins to move up, as we expect from the cycles, it could quickly move to 24100 area, which is the medium term point of control for Bank Nifty Futures price.
This is one of the most volatile counters. So trade carefully with adequate protection.
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