Unlike with Nifty, we find Bank Nifty is below all moving averages, 200, 50 and 20.This portends a bearish scenario. BN has closed below the 50 SMA consistently for a few days now.
The second sub cycle is still continuing and we do not yet know if it has bottomed out.
As we can see, the second sub cycle is has completed 24 days so far and a top was formed in 10 days. That means the corrective part of the cycle took 14 days and this again is a bearish development.
I have extrapolated the 200 SMA here and it is likely to touch 24200 by September 25.That looks to be the ceiling as of now.
Immediately, Bank Nifty has to move above the Daily and Weekly pivot levels of 22095 to 22191.
Then beyond the R1 levels of 22405 to 22597.
We expect a counter trend up move from here but it looks to likely be a weak up-move. Even if it is a little strong, let us be cautious because the market internals have already weakened
We have updated the Poc Chart here.Unless the price quickly gets back into the value zone depicted by the two outer parallel lines, Bank Nifty faces the danger of further weakening.
Since the subcycle is set to bottom out, we are expecting a pull back on the upside maximum to 24000.
On the downside if Bank Nifty breaches and closes below 21403, then the top is in place at 25232 on August 31 and the down move would have begun in Bank Nifty.
Extreme caution is advised with Bank Nifty because a trend change is on the cards.