Sunday, August 31, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals September 01 to 05 2014

Another eventful month had ended.We are in the 13th month since the low of 5119 formed on August 28, 2013.If the time cycles are expanding, then the weekly sub cycles should also increase in number..

If so then there is every chance that the monthly cycles also could extend beyond September.
If so then we are looking at a much bullish picture.

Looking at Monthly Gann Angles,

Nifty is approaching it`s long term 45 degree line..this is not a reversal point yet..Nifty could hug the line and travel there is no immediate clue here either..

Looking at Astrological indications,

 Slow moving outer planets and the Nodes ( Rahu and Ketu) must be involved in more than one kind of aspects for a significant top or bottom lasting several days or weeks, to form.As can be seen from the chart above, the skies are clear in September, as far as long term planets are concerned.The next significant formation is the Uranus Jupiter trine. While this begins on September 17, it actually becomes exact only on September 26.Market effects are generally seen 5 to 8 trading days thereafter.That would take us into the first week of October.
Now October seems to be a different ball game..
There are several significant aspects coming shown in the chart.This may be analysed in a future post.
So we may cautiously conclude that September seems to be a month where the  bull trend would continue.
Turning our attention to the short term...
Starting from the astro factors...

If we look at the immediate past, we see the following aspects:
August 23: Mars trine Chiron
August 26: Mars conjunct Saturn
August 26: Venus trine Uranus
August 26: Venus square Mars and Saturn
August 29: Sun opposition Neptune
September 03:Sun trine Pluto + Minimum Lunar Declination
September 05: Maximum Lunar Latitude
First two are the only ones which involve outer planets. Since the Nodes are not involved, there will be time delay in activation.Since the planets involved are mostly fast moving planets, inside Earth`s orbit, the effect could be shallow and or short lived. We saw a very short reaction in response to Venus Uranus trine. I expect a slightly larger reaction since (Mars and Saturn are involved), but not a trend reversal. (Support levels are given in the charts above.)That too for a very short period.It may manifest this week. If it does not, then we have to assume that the effect had already happened, in moving the trend from up to sideways.
Any which way, even if it happens, it must be taken as a buy on dips strategy and get on to the band- -wagon.
Aspect clusters are shown as A, B and C to delineate the different type of effects they have had on Nifty when they were operational.

Last week we saw how the current up move, is a break out of an Irregular triangle and how it could actually target 8200+. We also saw, how if this upmove crosses 8030, then the Impulse wave 3 of the alternative bullish option, could extend.
Here are couple of 30 min charts for better understanding. Iam persisting with the Diametric option open, till Nifty crosses September.

Wave f had consumed 338 half hour bars and wave g has so far consumed 200 bars. For equality we have another 138 more bars to go, which is 13 trading days.That is by September 17th.( That is the beginning of Jupiter trine Uranus..Is it a coincidence?).In this option, wave a of g had done an abc and had ended at 7968 on Aug 25th.Thereafter wave b of g had begun and we are currently in b of g. There could be a c of g to 7850 levels before wave c  of g starts.As discussed last week, this could take Nifty to 8200+ levels.
In the second option,

In the second option, wave a had ended on August 19th at 7912 and wave b of g had ended on August 26th at 7863. Since then we are in wave c of g.This will become stronger from here on. In other words, if Nifty reacts this week, then option 1 is on. If Nifty strengthens this week, then option 2 is on. Here wave g is forming a zigzag and wave c could be a very powerful one, pushing Nifty upto 8463!
In any case, all the options look bullish for the near term.
Disclaimer: This blog is purely educational. Trading or investing based on these ideas is purely at the sole risk and responsibility of the reader.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Nifty Gann Lines August 26 2014

Nifty has broken the 45 degree support line and is now moving towards the 22.5 line.7929 is an important resistance and 7830 is an important support.7830 or 7700 could be the end of b wave of g and then c should start towards 8200...

Apart from forming a square to Mars -Saturn conjunction , Venus also forms a trine with Ketu- Rahu axis. Short term trend continues to remain bearish.

Nifty Stochastic Behaviour August 25 2014

30 Min is oversold-Daily is poised down and Weekly continues the uptrend.Any recovery in 30 min could lead to another correction.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Nifty Astro Analysis for the week Aug 25 to 28

For the week beginning today, August 25, 2014, we have some interesting Astrological combinations.
It is shown in the chart below...

How has Nifty reacted to some of these aspects in the past?

Here when Venus trines Uranus,  a short term reaction is seen within two days. That is the direction is powerfully reversed.Venus squaring Saturn also changes the trend quite strongly, after a few days.Mostly the reversal gets triggered with a Lunar event.September 13, 2012 was Venus trine Uranus. September 16th was a New Moon Day. Similarly Mars conjuncts Saturn on August 16-Moon perigee is on August 24th..There is another aspect-Sun opposite Neptune on August 24..and that triggers a market reversal, by August 24, within four days of Saturn Mars conjunction.

Here it can be seen, how bigger aspects take over and influence the smaller aspects such as Venus trine Uranus or Venus square Saturn.

Coming back to the present time, Sun opposes Neptune by August 29, 2014.Within the next two days, we should expect a market turn, because of the New Moon.If not, then most probably  by September 01 onwards, when Moon moves into Visaka star, in Libra and goes through the post conjunction Saturn and Mars.This is more likely, because market interests would prevent the market from falling, so close to the expiry.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 25 to 28, 2014

I continue my preoccupation with the long term trend, especially since Nifty has moved into uncharted territory.Looking at the bullish alternative scenario, on a monthly scale,from January 2008, Nifty had been forming an ascending triangle with a horizontal bias.Interestingly b leg is less than a leg. In fact e<d<c<b<a. So it is a regular limiting triangle. As per pattern implication, the thrust out of the triangle has to be 100% of the largest leg + or - 25%.Largest leg is of a ( 6357-2253 = 4104).Range of the thrust then is between 4104x0.75+5119   and 4104x1.25+5119, which is between 8197 and  10249.
With the long term correction ending at 5119, then we are in an impulsive atmosphere, with the wave 3 currently in progress.

Looking at the 30 min chart, we are looking at a different triangle altogether..
Here the triangle is irregular, because wave b was larger than wave a.So the thrust could be 1.618 times the length of the largest leg of the triangle.This puts the tentative target for wave g ( Iam maintaining the diametric counts for the time being ) around 8200.

Now, last week it was observed that Nifty is operating through uptrend fractals-that is of late, the uptrends seem to be lasting for 8 to 10 days.Friday, August 22, marks the end of a 10 day period.So we may technically expect a correction ( b of g) this coming week, before Nifty turns up once more  to move towards 8200.    
Additionally Nifty 30 min has been forming a megaphone is also called a broadening pattern.This has short term bearish implications.Nifty could correct to 7820 levels or even to 7700 levels before the final upward c commences.

Of course, these are just projections. We will only take a trade after the market moves into a direction.And protect our capital with adequate stop losses.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 20, 2014

Nifty: The big picture

Nifty Daily: Fractal behaviour and  Stochastic Indicator :

Of late Nifty rises for 8 to 10 days easily before giving up.Such fractal behaviour has been highlighted.So the current uptrend, which is only 6 days, has some more steam left!
Stochastic Indicator:  Nifty seems to top out only when the Stochastic Indicator has hit a top and starts declining.Currently Stochastic Indicator has not crossed downwards yet.

Nifty 30 min:


Sunday, August 10, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 11 to 14, 2014

This is how we concluded last week...

"Net, net, movement of c wave decides things for the time being. Astro indicates that the market could continue its negative ways till a turnaround happens by August 06 or 07."
We saw in the week just passed that wave c gave way to wave d on August 04 and 05th and then to a bigger wave e downward which has so far consumed three days, August 06, 07 and 08.
So what we have is now an expanding triangle with good down move  potential....
 So, increasingly we are getting into a " sell on rises" psychology , from a "buy on dips" situation.

This will be evident, if Nifty moves to 7200 levels swifty.If Nifty stalls at 7400 levels, and improves from there then we get to understand that one more upmove in Nifty could unfold.
So currently it is sell on rises strategy...

On daily levels,
On a weekly level...

So, on a larger frame, time cycles are changing.Nifty has gone without a meaningful correction for long.For the time being, Sell on rises as far as trading is concerned and selective investment picks seem to be a prudent approach to the markets.  

Aug  7, 2014                 Mars   trine Neptune  ( Trough by Aug 19 to 21)

Aug  8, 2014                  Sun  conjunct  Mercury 
Aug  8, 2014                    
Mercury  trine Uranus 
Aug  8, 2014                    Sun trines Uranus  ( Trough by August 19 to 21)
Aug  8, 2014                   
Mercury  square   Saturn 

Aug  9, 2014                 
Sun square   Saturn ( Trough by August 22 )

Full Moon on August 10th, at 23.40 hours. This Moon is in Perigee, that means the closest to the Earth.So Moon could be pretty powerful tomorrow.

Aug 18, 2014                 Venus  conjunct  Jupiter  
Aug 18, 2014                 
Mercury   opposition Neptune  

Astrologically, this week on Monday may begin with an upward bang, but may continue to weaken day by day, till August 14.The stars seem to indicate that a turnaround may happen only somewhere in the period Aug 19 to 22.
So I would look to " sell on rises."7700 upside and 7400 on the low side are broadly the range.If Nifty rises beyond 7605, then 7650 should be a good short, providing it weakens there.If 7700 is taken out on the upside, then probably the correction has ended on the downside and the upward g has started. We have to be careful on both sides because we are in a triangle environment.

Monday, August 4, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 04 to 08, 2014

We had been expecting reversals for the past two weeks and Nifty did so a trifle rapidly in the past week.Nifty came down from 7841 on July 25 to 7603, on August 01, in just 5 trading sessions.Whether this is a correction or a trend reversal, only time will tell.I shall continue with my views and let you all decide. One thing is now very clear. When astro aspects bunch up and when there is also a technical confirmation, then surely there is an impact in the markets.
A look at the monthly cycles...
   This could coincide with the completion of diametric wave F and the beginning of wave G downwards.As usual it did not take much to dampen the sentiments of markets all over the globe.
Here are the weekly cycles chart...

In the monthly cycles chart,the last candle was not considered, because it pertained to August which had just begun.So in the coming four weeks, if the Weekly manages to close above 7422, the bullish trend will be intact. Any closing above 7800 will be strongly bullish.However, looking at the weekly technicals, it looks like some more downside may be achieved on a weekly scale, before we resume the uptrend.Weekly cycles also have reached their 13 week cycle which indicates some reversal.
Here are the Stochastics...

After several weeks of bearish divergence, Nifty Stochastics has turned down below the 70 mark.Critical support point shall be the 36.28 mark.These cycles an indicators are cautioning us not be overly bullish at this point in time...
Neowave counts are shown on the daily chart.We appear to be in the c leg of wave f of larger Diametric wave, F.Even though irregular corrections are comparatively rare,we will not discount the possibility, especially if Nifty weakens strongly this week also.If wave c ends above 5422, then it is an irregular triangle with the d wave moving upwards and a final smaller e moving downwards.Post the triangle then we could expect a 300 to 400 point rise.
Another more bearish possibility is, since wave b was larger than wave a ( wave a was 387 points, as whereas wave b  was 417 points), wave c could be equal to wave a- which means wave c could go down to 7454.So where wave c ends is an important point for post pattern analysis of Nifty movement.

30 minute chart makes things a little more clearer.Wave c of f had turned down from 7789 levels.Currently it is forming wave 3 of c.This means there is some more space to go down.
 Enlarged chart brings out the point that wave c is still not complete.Maybe it will go beyond wave a in vertical length on Monday before a bounce forming wave 4. Technically wave 4 should not cross the 0-2 trendline drawn above. Depending on the angle of recovery, that means Nifty should not bounce beyond 7660 for this impulse to be valid. So the prudent trade would be to go short with a stop loss of 7660, if Nifty bounces on Monday.Of course if the bounce is more than 7660, then the Irregular flat gets converted into Irregular triangle or Irregular c wave failure patterns, both of which are bullish.Then we buy with a stoploss of 7660.

To sum up, our trade decisions depend on what Nifty would do with the current c wave.
That brings us to Astrology.
Can the planets give us some indications then?

Net, net, movement of c wave decides things for the time being. Astro indicates that the market could continue its negative ways till a turn around happens by August 06 or 07.
Now let us wait and watch! If things happen the way we want, well and good. If not we get powerful lessons to  be learnt. Both are fine anyway.
Of course the regular disclaimers hold good. Trade with caution. No anticipation.Protect your capital always.
Have a great week.