Thursday, October 23, 2014

October 23, 2014 Cycle Update

I have updated all hourly bars till today..
Interesting to see the hourly rising from the October 17 bottom.The elliptical path is illusory and has no relevance.Now the bars are near to the blue cycle top. So momentum should decrease and reversal may happen. 7930 is the first support followed by 7860.
On Monday, if we see a bar reversal, that is if the hourly bar closes lower than the previous  bar low, then we can safely short till the levels mentioned above.
If Nifty strengthens on 27th also or is  flat, then the next bottom should be expected around 7860 levels.If 7860 does not hold then it is back to 7720  levels.Expected date of this bottom is around November 03, 2014.
Since Nifty has gapped out of the downward blue trend line, it is highly unlikely that 7720 will be broken.
Si if we see a bottom in hourly the next cycle is about to begin and we can confidently buy.


  1. Suresh ji,
    Wish you a very happy and prosperious Dipawali with internal and external richness.
    I read your posts everyday,thanks lot for your updates regularly.I understood that all the cycles start from the important bottom and one should counts bars from that bottom and see whether top crossed or bottom broken in next cycles to estimate further probable price behaviour.Further it is important to noitce "is the new cycle right translated or left?" to trade accordingly.To days post seems to clear most of questions.Thanks lot once again for the guidence.

  2. Only one correction Harish. Tops are not relevant in cycles. Bottoms are.We use other techniques to understand about tops. Simple bar reversals and trendline breaks are the best.
    Hope you also had a happy and peaceful Diwali!

  3. Wish you a very happy Diwali. Your time cycle analysis is very erudite and pragmatic. During cycle reversals, it is found that some sectors go against the general trend. They appear to have a rhythm of their own. Your views.

  4. Of course.Sectors have their different cycles.Economic cycles vary from Stock cycles also.A careful study will reveal which are the dominant cycles of a sector.

  5. According to me +ve to flat till 30/10 and then -ve from 31/10 to at least 7/11. I haven't checked after that yet.

  6. I am more or less with you.Since a larger cycle is bottoming out the Nov 7 bottom could be earlier.Also on 29/Oct at 11 pm when Fed meeting starts Rahu is cojunct Mercury.Last time they were conjunct we saw a big fall.That was on Sept 16 I think.Since Mercury relates to news this could be some not so good news.But if the uptrend pulls on up to Oct 30 then this cycle could be right translated.If so then the fall will not break 7724.