Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Nifty and the Eclipses- An Analysis

We had a total Lunar Eclipse on October 08, 2014 and now we have a partial Solar Eclipse on the night of October 23, 2014, ( morning of 24th in fact) between 1.08 am and 5.22 am.
Now eclipses have been coming and going and every time one comes up there is a lot of speculation as to what effect it could have on us and especially on the Financial Markets.
A Solar Eclipse occurs only when a New Moon occurs. In fact a solar eclipse is nothing but a specialized type of New Moon or Amavasya as we call it in India.
As traders our interest is in knowing what was the effect of these eclipses on Nifty in the past years.
I have simply plotted the Eclipse dates on to Nifty daily and here is what we see...

The chart is a daily from May 2012 to the present date.
Red lines indicate Solar Eclipses and Black lines indicate Lunar Eclipses.
There are some interesting observations to be made:

  1. Only in May 2012, we had a solar eclipse followed by a Lunar Eclipse.
  2. Between April 25 and May 25, 2013,we had two lunar eclipses with a Solar Eclipse in between.
  3. Rest of the cases are of lunar eclipse first followed by solar eclipse.
  4. When the Solar Eclipse comes first of the duo, market reversal happens within the time zone of the eclipses and mostly the trend continues.
  5. A triple combination as seen between April 25 and May 25 2013, definitely destabilises the market and causes an intermediate trend reversal.
  6. In cases of lunar first and solar next, during these phases, the market goes straight past the New Moon till the date of Eclipse and reverses direction only after the Solar Eclipse.
  7. In all cases where it is Lunar first followed by Solar, the trend continues in the original direction. So the eclipses act as sort of a speed breaker to the trend.This is only to be expected because Eclipses reduce the energies of the luminaries, Sun and the Moon, at least temporarily.
This eclipse is happening when Rahu is in Virgo. So I thought it would be a good idea to go back 18 years and see what happened when Rahu was in Virgo last time......
The trend in 1996 was an intermediate  (or long term?) down trend and we had a lunar followed by a solar in September and October 1996.Market continued past the Full  Moon and reversed close to the Solar Eclipse and then after forming a top after the eclipse it continued with the original downtrend.
In October 2014, also the market continued past the Full Moon of October 08 and formed a seeming reversal on October 17, 2014.It has been rising since then.
So there is every possibility that we form a top after the Solar Eclipse and decline to a bottom.
  1. And if this bottom, post the eclipse is higher than 7724, then the original bull trend continues till the year end.
  2. If the bottom post the eclipse breaks 7724, then we are going down till the year end. 
Of course, we want one answer.
Which of these has a better possibility?
For that we examine the day charts of solar eclipse day in 1996 and in 2014...

First set of charts pertain to 2014 October and below that we have the 1996 charts.
During the eclipse, Sun, Moon and Venus are literally one on top of each other in Libra.All of them are in Mars star.Mercury is afflicted by Rahu, but direction wise Rahu and Mercury are in alignment.Rahu is also in Mars star. Mars is in the star of Ketu. Malefic power is more and so a decline is round the corner.
But, but, but, both Sun and Venus had formed squares in Pluto and both of them indicated a powerful bottom. I had been writing about this for quite some time now.
This happened from  October 04 to 06 and by October 17 we were just 6 trading  days after the square. And so the powerful bottom of October 17 came to be. If so the decline indicated by the eclipses could only be able to form a higher bottom, post the eclipse.
So out of choices 1 and 2 I prefer 1.

There are some interesting correlations between 1996 and 2014. See the writing in black...

This also indicates that we may have an astro inversion coming up. That means post the eclipse, after a bottom, market should go up for some time to come !

This is just an empirical analysis. Please base your trades only on the basis of competent technical advice, after observing due stop losses.
Please write to me your observations.


  1. Dear Suresh,

    Very interesting and detailed analysis. Day by day your analysis exactly sync with market movement.
    Great Job. Deepavali wishes.

    And if this bottom, post the eclipse is higher than 7724, then the original bull trend continues till the year end.
    If the bottom post the eclipse breaks 7724, then we are going down till the year end. **
    Here end of year means Dec or next Deepavali. Pl let me know.

    1. Happy Diwali, Nanda!
      And sorry for my lack of clarity. I had meant only December 2014. Eclipses do not have the power to influence a full 12 months. Mostly it will be for a couple of months only. In fact we have the next set of eclipses in March -April 2015!

  3. Thank you Pankaj. And happy Diwali to you and your loved ones as well!