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Sunday, June 21, 2020

For the week of June 22 to June 26 2020

Last week we noticed that Nifty had completed two cycles and that the next sub cycle could be bullish as well. We had postulated that this sub cycle, in due course,  may move up to 10500-10600.
Nifty opened the week at 9919 and after making a low of 9726 moved up strongly to make a high of 10272 before closing at 10244.During the previous sub cycle Nifty had hit a high of 10326.75.That is the immediate overhead resistance for Nifty.

As can be seen the current cycle has now consumed 23 days.Previous cycle was 34 days, low to low.We are in the 4th sub cycle which has already consumed 6 days.
We are also moving into a denser sky this week.
Mercury had already turned retrograde.
We had just completed an annular Solar Eclipse, which actually cast its shadow across Ladaak.
During this eclipse, Sun and Rahu were both aspected by Mars.By June 28th this Mars will receive a powerful malefic aspect from Saturn.
Venus will finally turn Direct on June 25, 2020.
With Neptune going retro on June 23, between June 23 and 25, six planets shall be retrograde.
Jupiter also slowly moves towards its conjunction with Pluto.India-China border dispute, uncontrolled COVID, fear of a second way and riots in America are all getting high lighted.
Our expectation for the market is it could be neutral to down for the first two days of the coming week and then  move up once again as its fifth sub cycle.Up move is now getting stretched a little and soon  probably from next week, we may see corrections setting in.
Caution is the word. Mercury is retrograde. So guard against fake moves which can eat up your stop losses. Keep booking profits or else they may quickly vanish!

Regarding Bank Nifty,

it is in a wide trading range. Immediate overhead resistance is 21807.4 and the next is 21967. Supports are at 20939 and 19456 for the week.
Since May 18, Bank Nifty has been performing better than Nifty which is a good sign for Nifty Bulls.
BN has been growing at 21.42% versus 16.11% for Nifty.

Some of the sector indices which have done well or average....

Good to average performers...

Whether this up-move since March 23 2020 is a bear rally or the first leg of a new bull market, it has sure been broad based with lot of stocks participating.
Have a great week!

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Republic of China


This is the chart of Republic of China on the left and the current transit of planets on the China chart, on the right.
Both the Ascendant and Moon are in Capricorn in the natal chart. The natal Ascendant and Moon are heavily pressurized by the malefic trio of Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto.Normally benefic Jupiter is a pure 12th lord for China and hence more malefic than benefic.
Problems have started from November 04, 2019, when Jupiter joined Ketu, Saturn and Pluto in the 12th.They intensified from February 07, 2020,when Mars also joined Ketu and others in Sagittarius.
On May 10th, something interesting happened. Saturn the powerful ascendant lord for China turned retrograde at less than a degree and this may lead to unstable thinking and wrong moves.
Jupiter and Saturn will conjunct on December 20, just within 2 degrees of the Ascendant.
Jupiter is in fact translating transformation vibes between Pluto and Saturn and so we may expect China to change in ways we cannot imagine. Revolutionary issues will crop up  inside China.
Seventh house is dominated by a debilitated Mars in conjunction with Pluto. This combo aspects both Ascendant and the Moon. So the underlying thinking has always been, that " With brute force and power we can break down our adversaries.". That coulkd well undergo a change between 2020 and 2025. By 2025 and 2026, Pluto will conjunct the Ascendant and Pluto is a merciless transformer.
Solar and Lunar Eclipses in the sixth house ( conflict house ) are probably influencing  the current
situation. We hope to see good  improvement after the eclipses.( June 21 and July 05 ).

Saturday, June 13, 2020

For the week of June 15 to 19, 2020

In our last week`s post, we had expected the markets to strongly move up towards the Sun square Mars date of June 08 and then be subject to profit taking.Nifty hit a high of 10326.75 on June 08 and since reacted down to reach a low of 9544 on Friday before closing at 9972.70 for the week.
We have seen first of three eclipses so far...
The Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05..Let me reproduce what we had said about this eclipse  in our post of " June 01 to June 05 2020".
As expected markets reduced their bullishness especially on June 12.This low of June 12 also coincides with the Mars-Neptune conjunction of June 13, 2020.Interesting to also note that this steep sell off happens one day after Sun and   Mercury both reached extreme declinations on June 11, 2020.
So what next?
There is never any lack of excitement in the skies!
This week we shall see the intensification of retrogrades.By June 18 this week, at 10:28:50 hrs, Mercury goes retrograde in Jupiter star in Gemini.With this the number of planets which go retrograde increases to 5: Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and by 18th, Mercury. 
And the baton now changes, from Mars to Sun.
Sun enters into Gemini on June 14, 2020.Any sub cycle which bottoms out close to a Sun ingress into Gemini generally gives rise to another bullish subcycle or cycle.
Sun also is unhurriedly moving towards into rendezvous with Rahu on June 21.( Solar Eclipse maximum at 12.10 pm ).Exact Sun Rahu conjunction is on June 20 at 06.39 am.
Cycle wise, the current bullish cycle is 18 days old and we have likely completed two legs.Since both legs were right translated, we expect the next sub cycle also to be bullish.Likely sub cycle top targets can be 10500 to 10615.
Surprises and reversals to be expected. After all we are passing through unstable times. Protect your positions with adequate stop-losses.  

Sunday, June 7, 2020

For the Week of June 08 to 12, 2020

Nifty opened the previous week at 9726.85 on June 01, 2020, went up to 10176.20 on June 03, came down up to 9944.25 by June 04 before closing the week at 10142.15 on June 05, Friday.
Contrary to expectations, Venus sqr Mars was just a small blip on June 03 and now the market is strongly moving towards the Sun square Mars aspect of June 08/09.Sun squares Neptune on June 10 and Mars conjuncts with Neptune on  June 12.
Neptune is all about dreaminess and being divorced from reality.It represents drugged states of altered consciousness.Assumptions rule the roost right now.
All markets are also on a high caused by liquidity.There cannot be a reality check because Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter and Venus are currently retrograde. They will be joined by Mercury which goes retrograde on June 18th.Neptune will join the retrograde group by June 22,2020. Six planets will be retrograde!
When the dreamer goes retrograde, then a reality check may happen.Especially with a Solar eclipse on the same June 22, 2020. 
We expect some profit taking this week before the markets move higher into the week of  June 22, 2020.Not conducive for any shorts but for going long after some profit taking.

9850 is the support level on Nifty futures below which more weakness is expected. Immediate resistances to overcome are at 10266 and 11023.
For Bank Nifty the immediate hurdle is 21967, previous cycle top.
Talking of cycles, we are in the second sub cycle of the new cycle which began on May 18.
First sub cycle took 5 days and the current second one has taken 8 days so far. Any day this sub cycle  may start topping out in line with the cosmic aspects.This second cycle was more bullish than the flat first one. In fact Nifty took out the previous cycle top only in this sub cycle. 
Currently we continue to expect the next sub cycle to also be a bullish one.


FIIs have been net buyers in the Cash Segment from May 26 2020. From June 03, their buy value has started reducing.
Mutual funds have been selling mostly, in June 2020.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

International Synchronicity

All stock markets are influenced by International Fund Flows. IFFs are of course subject to planetary influences. The one influence which has international appeal are astro aspects. Among the markets there maybe less flow or more flow depending on outlooks for each country by IFFs. In other words, amplitudes may differ but turn dates tend to be similar.
There again, there maybe differences of a few days for the same kind of astro aspects. Example: DAX bottomed on March 18 whereas Dow and Nifty bottomed on March 23, 2020.Dow and Dax peaked on April 29, whereas we did it on April 30.Dow and Dax bottomed on May 14th whereas Nifty did it on May 18th.
Looking at amplitudes,
 The Dow is the least performer among the top three US Indices.While NASDAQ is primarily Domestic Institutions, S&P is essentially retail and the DOW is International Funds.
This only means there is still some reluctance from International Funds into Dow and this could be an important consideration going forward.

Fibo time extensions of various lows of DOW point out June 08 and 09 to be important dates.
If the Retro Venus Sqr Mars right now with a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05, does not slow down the market, then it can only be slowed down by Sun square Mars of June 08-10.
As mentioned in previous blogs, we still continue to believe in one more leg up in June.
For that we need some moderation in the bullishness now...
With Kaala Sarpa Dosha out of the way, issues other than Corona have started to come afore..We continue to remember that we are still under the influence of Saturn-Pluto-Jupiter conjunctions.
Nifty will continue to follow the mother market..

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Waxing and Waning Cycles of Long Term Planets

When the Moon conjuncts Sun, we have a New Moon.After the Conjunction, Moon moves away from the Sun. That period is called Sukla paksha or waxing phase.
When the Moon reaches a point 180 degrees away from the Sun, we say Moon is in opposition to Sun and that is Full Moon. After that Moon moves towards the Sun forming Krishna Paksha or waning cycle.
Similarly long term planets like Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto also form waxing and waning cycles to one another.
In this post we examine the waxing and waning cycles of other planets with Pluto, "the Ultimate Transformer."

This is the longest cycle. Pluto Neptune waxing cycle began in June 1892 and will end in an opposition by August 2141 with Pluto in Taurus.This is toooooo long for us to consider!
 Waxing phase ends by September 2046.When larger planets are in waxing phase, that is good for the world, because transformation happen in a positive way. Compare it with 1939-45, when Uranus was in a waning phase with Pluto..There was transformation caused by World Wars..transformation by death and destruction.
Anyway these are generational planets and their effects are generational, to say the least.
 Saturn and Jupiter cycles to Pluto are more interesting because we could relate with out timelines and we can measure performances over economic indicators such as Stock Indices.
 We can see all other outer planets, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune progressively waxing away from Pluto.



During the entire Jupiter waxing phase with Pluto,between 1995 to 2001, market just meandered around..

Jupiter waxing phase of 2007 sees two bear markets and recoveries but the 2008 top does not get taken out during the Jup-Pluto waxing phase.
Jupiter-Pluto waning cycle of 2013 takes the market from the 2013 bottom to a 7 year top in January 2020 till Saturn conjuncts Pluto.
Soon after Saturn Pluto waxing cycle commences, markets take a multi month  dip and after that they  attempt to cross previous highs provided there are no Jupiter Stations nearby.
If there is a Jupiter cycle like we have now, then after the fall, market struggles to get up for a while.
For a Jupiter-Pluto series with three passages, we find that market dips into the conjunction every single time. Market tries its best rally attempt between the second and third passages.
So Saturn, a first rate malefic will pull the market up along-with Pluto, another malefic. And Jupiter, the Great Benefic will combine with Pluto and pull down the markets in the long term. So we expect huge volatility and ups and downs with upward bias from March 2020 to July August 2026.
So great times for traders and short term investors but not so good for buy and hold type of investors!


Week of June 01 to June 05, 2020

Last week we had expected a rise for the markets.In a matter of 4 days Nifty rose from a low of 8968 to close at 9598.A 630 points rise.
Since May 18 low was formed 8 days ago, we conclude that a new cycle has started.Previous cycle was of 34 days duration, The one before was of 33 days duration.It is likely that the next cycle may be of a shorter duration.Sub cycle has taken 8 days so far but has just managed to touch the secondary high of last cycle which was 9584.The previous cycle high of 9889 still remains to be conquered.  
With 8 days over, it is in the time duration for a pause.
Astro wise this week belongs to Sun, Venus and Mars. 
June 02-03, Venus squares Mars.
June 05-08 Sun squares Mars.
By June 05, we have the first of three eclipses lined up. It is a Penumbra Lunar Eclipse.
There is one more factor with this eclipse...

 This is the chart of maximum eclipse on June 06 at 00:54 am. We can see that Mars is very closely aspecting the eclipse degree with a hard square aspect.
Some reduction in bullishness may be expected either by June 03 or June 05/08. Prices may trend lower this week.
For the month however, there is more price rise expected but probably not this week.
Let us not forget that we are in a Jupiter Pluto and Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period. This means the Big Bear is very much alive. He is just digesting the bulls he had in March 2020.

Monday, May 25, 2020

Week of May 26 to 29 2020

Last week we had expected bullishness this past week of May 18 to 22. While other markets turned bullish, Nifty chose to fall 313 points on May 18 and spent rest of the week recovering from the fall.
Let us look at some charts..
 Bank Nifty`s weakness has been pulling Nifty down consistently, because of the heavy weightage of banks in Nifty Index Even after 38 trading days we are yet to see a meaningful cycle bottom. This cycle bottom will also be the turning point for Nifty.We may reasonably expect to see a cycle bottom from Bank Nifty this week.
Topmost is Nasdaq 100, Candlestick is Dow, The next red line is Nifty and the bottom red line is Bank Nifty. We see heavy divergence based on the constituents of the Indices.
For our Nifty, recovery last week was not very convincing. Immediately taking out the Secondary top of last cycle, that of 9584 looks like a tall order. So we expect a rise from present position and a fall into June  01 or June 02 from which a meaningful rise should start.If the rise continues beyond May 26, then the next cycle belongs to bulls. 
Mercury Conjunct Venus is a long term indicator of change of acceleration in the markets.Hopefully low of May 18, is the low for this conjunction.
We are going through a slightly tricky phase. So have your protections on please.

Transformation


One of the major transformations which influenced human beings collectively was the Industrial Revolution. It was the beginning of the rise of applied scientific power in terms of inventions based on discoveries.
First Industrial Revolution, fueled by the game-changing use of steam power was the transition to new manufacturing processes in Europe and the US in the period from about 1762 to 1835.
Goods that had once been painstakingly crafted by hand started to be produced in mass quantities by machines in factories, thanks to the introduction of new machines and techniques in textiles, iron making and other industries.
The Industrial Revolution transformed largely rural, agrarian societies in Europe and America into industrialized, urban ones.
First Industrial Revolution marked the rise of the West as a dominant political and economic power. Trade Development and phenomenal increase of commerce were among the major causes of the Industrial Revolution.
The Industrial Revolution began in Great Britain, and many of the technological innovations were of British origin. By the mid-18th century Britain became the world's leading commercial nation, controlling a global trading empire with colonies in North America and the Caribbean.
Britain established major commercial, political and military presence in the Indian subcontinent, through the activities of the East India Company.
The Industrial Revolution marks a major turning point in history; almost every aspect of daily life was influenced in some way. In particular, average income and population began to exhibit unprecedented sustained growth.

But things did not come easy. There was widespread resistance, fear and confusion among people before they accepted the change. Mainly because change was inevitable.
" Ugh! Ugly monstrous contraptions! Sure they won`t last..Give me a horse any day!"
This was the common attitude!
It is interesting to note where Pluto and other trans Saturnian planets transited in the skies when such a transformation happened.

We find Pluto in Sagittarius angular to Uranus and Saturn and trine with Jupiter, Rahu and Neptune.


“Pluto a freeing and opening force is always a pattern disrupter. Pluto causes old societal structures and ways of life to crumble so that more useful forms may appear.
Pluto is the Energy of Lord Shiva who destroys so that new forms manifest.
 Pluto is independent, individual, and autonomous; an extremist, isolationist and loner; a revolutionist, and is non-accepting of limiting conditions.”
Pluto  when connected to the other slow movers, brings up fears associated with survival, death and transformation; the fear to be alone, to let go, to release or to let die.
Pluto brings attention to our attitude and issues we hold about authoritarian control and use of power, how we attempt to control and how we respond to such control
Transiting Pluto is often associated  separation and deaths. Pluto actually makes us stop and check our premises, our belief systems and our attitudes..Ultimately we begin to change inside and start to accept new realities. This leads to new relationships, births, and new beginnings
 Things that are not working for us, whether they are thought processes or lifestyles, undergo a transformation. 
Often Intense Fear manifests  itself at the beginning of a challenging Pluto transit. How well we collectively handle that Fear is a key to survival and prosperity during Pluto highlighted times.  
Wild Uranus energy was held in check by Saturn and systematically applied to the World at large to bring in real time transformation.
Yet Uranus and Pluto overcame the traditional structure of sticking to agriculture and opened up a new frontier called as Industrial revolution.
With Saturn squaring Pluto, the transformation was never easy and those who did not adapt fell by the wayside.
We also see Rahu, the classic obsessor, who magnifies the energy of Jupiter and flows it freely to Pluto. Transformation becomes an obsession magnified many times.


The Second Industrial Revolution  began in the middle of 19th century (1850-1970). It was a period of growth for pre-existing industries and expansion of new ones; such as the steel, oil and electricity fields. Development of new technologies led to introduction of two things that would change the world: public transport and planes.
Faraday started playing with the idea of electricity. Then, a few years later, Edison and Swan perfected their design of a light-bulb which was practical for home use.
in 1876,Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. Later on, in 1901, Marconi sent radio waves across the Atlantic Ocean for the first time.
The internal combustion engine, which powers cars today, was invented during the Second Industrial Revolution.
Here is a sample picture of the sky of those times:
Pluto, the harbinger of transformation and Uranus, the Master of Creativity, Innovation  and unexpected changes are in Cardinal signs, Aries and Cancer respectively.In the beginning years we also see Saturn, the Master of processes being eclipsed and Jupiter joining Rahu to expand the uncertainty. Another planet of nebulousness and uncertainty, Neptune is square Saturn.
When everything changes around you quickly, uncertainty becomes a constant!

Another great catalyst of change were the World Wars, especially the Second World War.
 Hitler’s invasion of Poland on First September 1939 forced Great Britain and France to declare war on Germany, and World War II had begun. Over the next six years, entire world was in conflict. More land and property around the globe were destroyed than  in any previous war. Among the estimated 45-60 million people killed were 6 million Jews murdered in Nazi concentration camps as part of Hitler’s diabolical “Final Solution,” now known as the Holocaust.
Destructive Pluto at its best...
Here is a picture of the beginning of World War 2...
Pluto in Cancer ( cardinal ) being squared by Uranus and Saturn in Aries ( Cardinal ). A deadly combination.Misplaced euphoria of the "Thousand Year Reich" is seen in the trine between Uranus and Neptune.Jupiter in a triangle with Pluto is exaggeration of the destruction which is to follow. Saturn and Ketu in Ketu star, Pluto in Saturn star,Uranus and Neptune in Sun star, underlining the political nature of the massive conflict.
 Rahu and Ketu conjoined with Saturn  manifest Fear in all it`s avatar...Fear for Life, for Loved Ones and of the Future itself.  Other than Neptune, all other Long term planets are in a waning cycle to Pluto.
History is always interesting only when it correlates to our present times.
So let us look at the skies during recent times:

Times.com reports on the beginnings of CORONAVIRUS Infections..
With what we know of the incubatory nature of the viral infection we may safely conclude that the virus crossed over enmasse to humans in November 2019, and manifested in December 2019 as COVID 19.
Transit chart shows Saturn powerfully aspecting Neptune with its third aspect by November 08, 2019.
Saturn is highly malefic because of its conjunction with the Ketu-Rahu axis.Both of them are in Sagittarius which has a tendency to inflate effects. To add to the fire, Jupiter, the owner of Sagittarius has just entered the scene.Of course, Pluto, the legendary transformer is present in Sagittarius in Sun star..Governments are soon to go into a tizzy over the tiny virus!
Mars aspect from Mercury sign-Chithirai star ( star of thieves ) to Pluto tells us that this infection will be hyped by media  for political gains and there are fraudulent angles unknown to public about the whole infection story.


By the end of March 2020, "Lock down" has become a global phenomenon.
Once again, the deadly Capricorn-Cancer Axis has been highlighted.
Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter all in Capricorn squaring Uranus in Aries, another Cardinal sign.
And these aspects are unfolding during a very destructive Kaala Sarpa Dosha, with Ketu in powerful Ketu star and Rahu in powerful Rahu star. Malefics have become deadly. 
Destruction has started in right earnest. 
First the Stock markets were destroyed, with the biggest plunge in history.
Then livelihoods and jobs are being destroyed. 
What is more, free movements have been destroyed succeeding the destruction of trust among fellow human beings. 
And there is no end to uncertainty.
Hell, we still do not know the full nature of this virus! Has it mutated? What really are the symptoms?
However  all is not lost yet!
Some redeeming factors...
1. Kaala Sarpa Dosha will end on May 29, 2020. 
2. Rahu-Ketu axis begins to move away from Sagittarius-Gemini where all the action started.
3. Slow moving Neptune, the mistress of Pandemics is involved only in the beginning and not thereafter. ( During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, Neptune was conjunct Saturn in deadly Cancer. ) 
4. Saturn begins a historical waxing phase with Pluto, a phase connected with growth, after the transformation.
5. Since the take-off stage is from Capricorn, a phase similar to  Uttarayana ( unlike from Cancer, where it is a descend into Darkness ) things should improve gradually from hereon.

Just one hiccup..that is the prolonged Saturn Uranus Square dance from November 2020..with exact square dates of February 17, June 14 2021 and December 24 2021. So we expect the real effect of the depressive economic conditions to begin manifesting in 2021. Only after 2021, it seems, can a true recovery be possible.








Sunday, May 17, 2020

BankNifty

Bank Nifty which was a positive contributor to Nifty has fallen on hard times of late..as can be seen in the chart above. This is now a drag on the Nifty..If BN improves, Nifty also will improve.


See how much SBIN has contributed to the sluggishness in BankNifty ?
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have a combined weightage of 52%..So if they move, Nifty will also move..