Mid Week Review April 20 to 24, 2015

Nifty opened the week on Monday, April 20 at 8619 and immediately started falling.Till it reached 8286 today before a short covering counter move pushed Nifty to close at  8430.This forms a hammer head pattern on the daily candle and that is a positive. This means that the down move gets slowed down a little for the time being.
Astro aspects look interesting....

 Four out of six aspects point to a trough formation between 22 to 27 of April 2015.Most important ones are Jupiter direct and Pluto retrograde. Both may cause a reversal which could gain considerable strength later on.

Hourly price movement has spiked downwards through the Lower BB. Generally this leads to a reversal, when confirmed by other indicators.Momentum shows positive divergence which has manifested as upward price movement.

Clearly more follow up buying is required on the daily scale.

Nifty has slipped out of the Central 45 degree line and moving down along the red arc.Down move is also as per 45 degree lines. 45 degree parallel, below the main line offers support.Previous behaviors at red arcs have been highlighted.An energy jump is now required.
So we have covered our shorts today and are long in a tentative fashion...

Reliance Industries- Astro Technicals

Reliance has been like Kumbhakarna..Sleeping off for a long while and now all awake. Recent results were spectacular and there is renewed interest in the stock now.
Let us look a little more closely.

Lagna Lord Jupiter in the 11th and second lord Saturn in second house itself. 9th lord Mercury is in the 11th. Powerful combinations indeed. Reliance is a natural wealth attractor.
Reliance is currently experiencing Rahu Dasa Sun Sub period.Sun is the significator of 2 and 11, two houses linked with wealth. This period shall be till December 25, 2015.So it is clear that Reliance will greatly increase in value this year.
Reliance should take off once Saturn  becomes direct in the 11th house. This will coincide with Rahu entering Sun star later in the year. That will be a very fortunate period for Reliance.
Reliance is now an attractive investment stock for the medium term.
Looking at Technicals..

     We see that the long term chart is turning bullish. A buy signal on the monthly momentum chart is not to be taken lightly.Waves wise, also Reliance is experiencing a break out out of the constricted triangle which had been persisting   since 2009.

Weekly also is uniformly bullish..

Weekly chart is projecting a target of 1050.

Since the Daily chart is stretched, we may expect correction in the early part of this week and thereafter when Reliance starts moving positively, it  could be bought for handsome returns in the medium term.

 Hourly has to turn positive in its momentum,before new buying could be done.Long positions may be liquidated now and re entered late this week or early next week for big moves later on.
All in all, Reliance is now poised to help us make money in the market!

Nifty Astro Technicals April 20 to 24, 2015

By Wednesday, April 15, last week, the correction which we were expecting had finally manifested. I hope the readers of this blog, had benefitted from the 9 day uptrend and have gone short after their trailing stop losses were taken out. We should now be comfortably short in Nifty.
Let us examine what is in store for Nifty in the coming week...
We shall examine some Momentum and Gann angle charts and then see how the astro indicators look like.
Let us start from the Weekly and go into smaller time frames.

We see a pronounced hidden divergence on the weekly chart, pointing out to a bottom formation sometime midweek or early the week after next.( April 27 onwards).

Gann angles point out two possibilities with equal probability
Coming to Daily charts,

Daily indicates that we could see a  possible support at approx 8555, and then an upmove.We also see a dateline for the upmove or down move to get completed.

We see a different kind of divergence in operation, in daily chart and its momentum.This suggests that the down move may continue for  some  more days and then Nifty may turn up.`

We look at the hourly charts...

Here we see the 45 degree upward parallel line has been clearly breached.Two levels of supports are shown as 8569 and 8500.

Here again we see positive divergence, but a mild one. So some more downside is expected before an upturn. Time limit..two to three days.

To recap, Continuing downside followed by a neutral weekly closing is a strong possibility. Powerful trough maybe anticipated closer to settlement.Chances of slippage to 8100 levels are also present.
Let us look at Neo waves and cycles for more confirmation..

  From 7724, which was the 2nd x point of complex correction, we are into the final diametric formation. We have completed waves, a,b, c and d. Currently we are in wave e.After wave e upwards, we will have wave f down and final wave g up, which will form a significant top.
We had initially assumed the down move from 9119 to 8269 as wave a of wave d. However, the subsequent upmove from 8269 to 8845 was more than 61.8% of the move from 9119 to 8269.
9119-8269 = 850
8845-8269 = 576
(576/850)*100 = 67.76%
This means the upmove from 8269 to 8845 so far can only be the next wave segment, that is wave e.
Shape of the diametric is that of a diamond and I have traced it through orange connector lines.The deduction from the shape is that wave e finally will be smaller than wave c in size. That means wave e may top out in the 9000 regions or thereabouts.In fact 80% level of wave c from 8269 comes to 8974.
In a diametric,wave d sometimes is the smallest wave. Oftentimes volatility increases in the remaining waves e,f and g.More so if it is closer to forming a significant top.
Coming back to wave e, then the current down move is wave b of d.50% of wave a of e is 8557 levels.Holding this level, wave c of e may open upwards.
Looking at the cycles, numbers 1,2,3 and 4 indicate half cycles of the inner blue cycle.We can see that the tops of cycles 1,2 and 3 corresponded to tops in Nifty.And the half cycles coincided with falls in Nifty.
However, the picture has changed for cycle 4.Here we find that the TOP OF CYCLE 4 IS COINCIDING WITH A BOTTOM IN NIFTY.This phenomenon of a cycle top coinciding with a market bottom or cycle bottom coinciding with a market top, is called inversion.Possibly this is caused because the blue cycle and the longer red cycle are falling apart in their rhythms. Also other invisible cycles are influencing the formation.
If so, when the blue cycle falls, we may expect Nifty to move up! Only after the current down move loses momentum.And a top could form in the vicinity of May 11th to 14th.
Looking at astro formations,
Negatives rule the roost.
Jupiter direct tends to trigger a market reaction first before it fires away. We are in the beginning of a market reaction.Just three days into it.
Venus Saturn opposition is also negative. This should take hold next week.
Pluto Retrograde is another negative formation. It should manifest negativity next week.
Any recovery seen next week should be used to sell.
Putting everything together,
1. The short term trend is down.
2.Next week could see two way movements.
3. Any rise maybe used to sell. Having said  Market could come down some more before a sustained upmove begins.
4. Expect a bottom late next week, but do not anticipate and place orders.
5. Negativity could spill over into the week after next,before a sustainable bottom is formed.
6. We see divergences, but the price should move in our direction before positions can be taken positively.
7. Trailing stop losses are a must, because volatility could increase from here on.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Astro Technicals April 16 2015

Broken out of the uptrending channel,and forming a complex abc x abc pattern.Maximum downside is upto 8550. But it could turn before that...
Because of the weekly ..

Weekly trend has turned up. Tomorrow is the weekly closing. So be cautious on shorts. Trend could assert itself tomorrow and show more weakness next week.Trade with stoplosses.

Coming back to the hourly, we see that Nifty has been moving along a 45 deg parallel line. Since it has broken the first line, it could move to the next.If this breaks then the next support is 8554, the green arcs.The overhead resistance is 8845.
Since we have the New Moon on April 19th, and since the Green Period starts soon, it is best to cover shorts on any sudden weakness.
In a nutshell, follow the shorts with a trailing stop loss,and go long once the stops are taken out.

Since the recent uptrend had crossed more than 61.8% of the down move from 9119, we consider the uptrend as wave e. We are currently in wave b of e. Which means there is one more upmove after the current down move.

Nifty Astro Technicals April 13 to 17 Brief Outlook

Since I have limited access to any online stuff, Iam just posting three charts for analysis..Detailed post shall be done later this week..

Time after Lunar Eclipse : 5 trading days
Jupiter Direct:2 days
Sun Conj Mercury:0 days
We are still in the reversal zone.
Sun Jupiter trine had occurred 4 trading days ago. So, still in reversal zone. So a medium term top may occur.Uranus element could cause more volatility.
Sun and Mars in Aries will cause aggressive buying and selling.

Nifty is moving in the parallel 45 degree price channels.Weekly has moved up strongly.We can see some more space to move.So Nifty is bullish in weekly situaton.

We see several time lines converging on the top.Daily is on the red arc. It takes energy to jump the arc. Daily suggests a correction at least intra week...
So the 4 day week is expected to be interesting.
op in place.No change in long positions till short term trend reverses on the hour charts.

Nifty Hourly- Angular Relations April 08 2015

Next 2 to 3 days should provide an answer!

 I have added a daily chart for more clarity.

Nifty Astro Technicals April 06 to 10, 2015

Last Month, after a long time, we saw an engulfing bear candle on the monthly. March month high of 9119 was higher than February high of 8941.
March low of 8269 was lower than February low of 8471.
March close of 8491 was much lower than February close of 8902.

This has bearish implications this month. We may reasonably expect March low of 8269 to be broken sometime during the month. Every such dip is to be bought for investments, because the underlying bullish trend is still intact, for the longer term.

Weekly has formed an inside bar, where the low is higher than previous week`s low but the high is lower than previous week`s high. So the reversal is not complete yet. So the uptrend we see is only a counter trend which needs to be monitored for downward reversal again. See the circled portions in the chart, including those in the Stochastics.

Daily chart is the one which connects us with our trading.

Here we see higher high and higher low formation. We also see that the daily has broken out of the complex correction channel. So most of us would have been stopped out and must be long now. Daily suggests that a counter trend is on its way and we need to be in on it as longs. However unless Nifty crosses 80% of the down move, ( 8947) we consider the short term downtrend to be intact. Likely levels to watch out are 8686  ( 50%) and 8792 ( 61.8%).

So what is our expectation for Nifty in the coming week?

We look at some daily charts including cycles and Neo waves.....

 As per Neowave, we had concluded that we are in Wave d of the diametric formation from wave 2nd x of 7724.Since all legs of a diametric have some sort of time equality. and since waves a,b and c ( of the current diametric) have all been 28 to 34 days so far, we expect this wave d also to be of similar duration. Wave d has completed 19 days so far..Minimum of 28 days means April 17 or thereabouts should see the completion of wave d. Since wave d has been going lower, this means that there is some more downside for Nifty. This also means that the current uptrend is a correction to the downmove from March 04.In other words, that is wave b of d and we may expect one more wave c of d downwards, after this b gets completed. As indicated earlier we watch out for 8686 and 8792 as indicative secondary tops.

Coming to cycles, we have been indicating that for the shorter blue cycle, April 06 or a couple of days after could be the cycle top.We had also mentioned that the blue cycle is currently undergoing an inversion, which means when the cycle tops out Nifty makes a bottom. That has now been accomplished. The amplitude of the bigger red cycle is stronger to the downside and so the cycles suggest that there is some more weakness left in Nifty.

Note how the Neo Waves and the cycles perfectly correlate.  One additional information given by our blue cycle is that May 11th or 12th could see an important bottom. This we have to wait and see.

What about astro? strictly speaking for the next week`s trade, we have clear indications from Technicals itself and there is no pressing need to look into astro. But then we love to see those also don`t we?

Before we go into astro formations, let us just look at an interesting Gann angle chart..

 I have shaded a portion of the chart and this portion is enclosed within two Gann lines, 1x1 upper line and 2x1, lower line.We see that Nifty slipped out of the 1x1 angle line and if we observe closely it had slipped out of a parallel angle line to the 1x1 line. One of the Cardinal Principles of the Great Master is that time and price must square out. Which means Nifty should reach the 1x2 line sometime in the future before a big uptrend begins again. Nifty will achieve this either in a quick down move, or may move sideways spending time and reach the 1X2 timeline. ( Gann angles are more of timelines and not trend lines.) Remember, when we were discussing Neowave, we had understood that we are in a diametric and we are now in wave d? That means we have wave e up,wave f down and finally wave g up.Those up and down movements should take Nifty to 1x2 angle line.A possible square out timeline of the move from 7724 is shown as violet lines. Let us rememeber that the violet line does not indicate that Nifty would reach there, It is just a turning point in future, which needs to be closely watched.

What about the vertical blue bands?

I have enlarged them here...

    They are planet dates.
1.April 04, is the lunar eclipse + Blood Moon
2.April 08 is Jupiter turning direct
3.April 10 is Mercury conjunct Sun
4.April 15 is Venus trine Saturn
5.April 16 is Pluto Retrograde.
Out of the 5 aspects, other than Mercury conjunct Sun all others are negative.
So astro expectations are that from April 08, till April 17 at least, we may see a down trend.
Now see how all parameters are agreeing, Technicals, Neo wave, Cycles and Astro.
So we be long till we are stopped out. This can possibly happen by April 08. Then if AND ONLY IF Nifty turns down, breaks a previous low on the hourly, we go short..
So, happy and profitable trading once more!

Nifty Astro Technicals March 30 to April 01, 2015

Let me start with a few recaps.

In our post of March 23 to 27, we had concluded that,
"So our astro indicators are saying that immediately the Market may move up for a couple of days, but may react down once again and form another low in the first week of April, 2015."

In our post of March 09 to 13, 2015, our summation was,
"To sum up, as per Astro, this week may be neutral to positive, but very definitely storm clouds are gathering by the weekend." That week Nifty opened at 8891, came down to 8682, went up midweek to 8844 before turning down decisively on Friday to 8632.

In our post of March 02 to 06, 2015,
"Some 14 different aspects are jam packed into the period from February 12 to March 31.Three major aspects stand out. Uranus Jupiter trine of March 03,Saturn retrograde on March 16th and final square of Uranus Pluto combination on March 17th.All markets could see reversals. Equities look to blow up higher and face a severe reversal in the second half of the month. The only saving grace is that Pisces and its occupants, Ketu, Uranus, Venus and Mars are getting a trinal benefic aspect from Jupiter.So issues may be ultimately resolved, but there could be turmoil before the relief.
Net effect, Neowave and the cycles indicate a positive upmove but astro formation are advising caution in the second half of this March 2015 month."

Market result? Nifty had moved down from 9119 to 8269, a hefty 850 points, before closing at 8341.
I hope, the readers of this group did benefit this month.

So, the trend has turned down. Looking at the market from 5119 to 9119, this is only a correction which has not even reached 23.6% yet. So the primary trend is bullish and we are in a correction.
How could the correction pan out from here on?
Let us begin with Astro.
 First we look at some of the leftover aspects of last week and then we see some upcoming ones.  
1. Mars Ingress into Aries March 24
2.Sun waning trine retro Saturn -March 25
3.Venus waning trine retro Jupiter March 27
4. Venus waxing trine Pluto March 29 ( when the previous Venus trine Jupiter is still on).
We are also in between a Solar Eclipse ( Ketu eclipse) and a Lunar eclipse of April 04. 

When Mars enters Aries, if Jupiter is in Cancer, markets react first, form a bottom and then rise later on in the month. We are in the reaction period now.
Sun waning trine Saturn is a weak reversal signal..effect date is  April 07 or 08. Stronger trend will resume afterwards. So this could give a counter uptrend by April 07/08. It may be a weak one. 
Venus waxing trine Jupiter and later on with Pluto could aid in a bottom formation by April 01.

Here are the upcoming ones..
1. Sun Ketu conjunction March 31
2.Sun Jupiter trine April 02
3. Total Lunar Eclipse ( Third Blood Moon) on April 04 
3.Sun Uranus conjunction April 06

Sun Ketu conjunction is a negative formation. So the down move could continue.
Sun Jupiter trine is again a weak reversal signal, expected to take effect by April 06.
Blood Moon Lunar eclipse, tends to give a weak up move followed by a stronger down move.
Sun Uranus conjunction is tricky.Nifty could move up within two days strongly, form a crest and then fall back sharply again after 2 to 3 more days. Then the primary trend may resume.

We will examine the Blood Moon formation and the upcoming Jupiter direct station on April 08, a little more closely...

  
Master Traders such as Gann and Elliott always believed that the market operates in cycles and that the past repeats itself with subtle variations into the future. What causes these cycles? Planetary effects of course!
So if we look at how the markets reacted when Jupiter was last in Cancer, in 2002-2003, we see that when Jupiter became direct after its retro station, Nifty actually fell and formed a bottom in 4 days. ( It recovered and fell again for a deeper bottom and then reversed decisively.)

See what had happened so far in 2014-15, when Jupiter entered Cancer.
1. Jupiter enters Cancer--Nifty fell, formed a bottom, rose and then fell again to a deeper bottom and then rose decisively.
2. When Jupiter enters Mercury star, Nifty fell from a top,formed a bottom, rose and fell into a deeper bottom. Thereafter Nifty moved up strongly.
3.Nifty turns retrograde...Same story. fall first,then a rise and then a fall again..Only difference is it formed a higher bottom.( All of it is visible on the charts.
4. So when Jupiter becomes direct on April 08..... you  guessed it...Nifty could fall, form a bottom, rise and then form another bottom before turning up decisively.   We shall discuss this a little more next week. 
What about those red boxes?
We move to the next chart..

The box area of October 2014, has been expanded here...We see it has got to do with the second Blood Moon Total Lunar Eclipse of October 08. After an initial rise, Nifty fell 248 points!
On to the next chart....

  We see that varying astro phenomena are in fact agreeing...
Now, to Technicals..

 It is now clearer. We are in a diametric formation and in wave d.  We are only in wave a of d. Wave b of d could move up and wave c of d could move down in April. It has taken 16 days so far. Average has been 28 to 31 days. So April 15/16 are important days. 
Our blue cycle is forming a classic inversion. That is the cycle top is about to coincide with a market bottom.  
Here are the declinations..

 Important dates are mentioned on the charts.
To sum up, Nifty may continue to move up and down with a negative bias till April 01. Then form a counter up move and after Jupiter turns direct, should move down again to form an important first bottom.   
Most importantly, these are just conjectures.
Trend is your friend and guide. Right now the trend is down. Let us go with it, till we are stopped out. And then go long till the next turn down. For a trader, nothing other than price action is important. No news, rate cuts, or Yemen wars matter.
All the best to your trading this week!

Nifty Astro Technicals March 23 to 27, 2015

We had quite an action packed week..

From a bottom of 8612 Nifty moved up to 8788 and turned down once again to close at a weak 8571 on March 20. As can be seen, with the formation of lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart, Nifty`s trend has turned down.

Actually, on every positive news, Nifty has encountered fresh selling.
Looking at Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic Momentum Indicators on the daily chart,

We see that Nifty has reached the lower BB and is poised for a break lower. Such a break is a positive indication of the counter trend beginning, upwards. Stochastic Indicator is also showing signs of bottoming and the next upward movement may soon begin.
Looking at the weekly picture of the same indicators,

We see that the negative divergence which was persisting for the past 14 weeks has at last manifested as downward price movements, from March 04, 2015.Since the previous week`s candle shows a shooting star formation, we may expect Nifty to spike down this week and form a bottom.

This means any rise from 8571 levels in the early part of next week, is only temporary and Nifty could again go down to fresh lows. How low could it go?


Looking at the hourly chart, using Gann angles on a Gunner system,

We find that the angle low comes to 8470. This also is the bottom formed by Nifty on February 10, 2015.Resistance levels seem to be 8790.Nifty has been sliding down the 45 degree angle after regaining it from the 66 degree angle. (2X1).
If Nifty moves up on Monday, then this chart suggests that 8650 could be the immediate resistance.
If it continues to weaken, 8470 is to be marked for a reversal.

What does our leading indicator say? In case you are wondering what it is, it is astro of course!
Let us recap:

Conjunctions of Venus with Ketu on March 01 and conjunction of Mars with Ketu on Mars , led to a crest formation on Mars 04.
Saturn retrograde on March 14 accentuated the negativity.
Uranus Pluto square of March 17 reduced the positivity in the market. So post this square, market continued to fall.
March 17th was also the final date for Uranus Jupiter trine-second passage.
Solar eclipse of March 20, involving Ketu with the luminaries, Sun and Moon deepened the negativity.
Net, net Nifty has moved down from 9119 to 8533, a depletion of 566 points.

So what is there this week?
a.    March 20 was also a Super Moon. Moon was in Perigee and also was a New Moon. So this week we may see positive movement to start with.
b.     Let us examine this Jupiter Uranus trine a little more. There seems to be a post formation implication..

We had the first passage in September- October 2014.7 days before the passage start date, Nifty had made a top, and fell into the passage date. Uranus was retrograde and Jupiter was direct then. After the passage, Nifty fell into a bottom exactly seven days after. Refer the chart above.
Coming to the second passage, Nifty formed a bottom, seven day before the passage date, and rose into the passage. Here Uranus is direct and Jupiter is retrograde.
So it goes to expect that Nifty will rise to form a top seven days after the passage date? If so March26/27 could see a top.( Now, let us not think it is going to be an all-time top. It is most probably an intermediate top, given the negativity of other planetary formation.
c.  Mars ingresses into Aries on March 24th. Normally this is a bullish signature, but with Jupiter in Cancer, we could see some more negativity.

         See the chart above. With Mars in Aries and Jupiter in Cancer, after a brief up move the market tanked down to a new bottom and later rose upwards.

          

 In 1990, when Mars was in Aries, Jupiter was in Gemini. Sensex moved up. Later on when Jupiter moved into Cancer, there was a down move and then recovery. Now Jupiter is retrograde and has lost considerable speed, in readiness to become direct on April 08, 2015.So the down move may not be deep, but expected to be shallow.
This  last graph  of Mars ingress is from 2013. Nifty exploded up when Mars entered Aries, but Jupiter was in Taurus.

           

d. Sun waxing trine Saturn, Venus square Jupiter and Venus trine Pluto are all pointing to a bottom by April 01 or thereabouts.

e.Lastly we examine the eclipse and Ketu`s role a little closely.

      

In 1997, we had a Solar eclipse involving Ketu. Solar eclipse happens when Ketu is at a distance, usually 8 to 9 degrees.. Moon passes over the Sun in a New Moon formation. Then at a later date, Sun conjuncts Ketu. So we have two negative formations, Solar eclipse and then the date when Sun conjuncts Ketu. Nifty reacted negatively for the eclipse, then consolidated and fell again when Sun conjuncted Ketu.
Fast forwarding to 2015, we had a similar solar eclipse on March 20.And Sun will conjunct Ketu on March 30, 2015, Monday. So we may expect a negative move on March 30.
So our astro indicators are saying that immediately the Market may move up for a couple of days, but may react down once again and form another low in the first week of April, 2015.
Here is the updated cycles chart..

  

Last week we expected a down move till 8532. Nifty had come down upto 8553.
Neowave wise there are two possibilities coming up.

1. We are in the last leg of the complex correction. After 2nd x we are possibly in another diametric formation. Remember, diametric formations are quite common with Nifty. (One thing is certain. None of these major waves are impulsive. Probably at hourly levels we may see impulses, but not at daily or weekly levels.) Waves denoted in thick black alphabets denote the wave legs. Currently we are in wave d as per this count. 11 days have passed in wave d. So one more counter up move followed by a down move could end wave d. I prefer this count at the moment, because in diametric formation time equality is quite important.

2. The counts followed previously are shown in blue. According to this count, only one more up leg is pending. After which Nifty should correct substantially. The trouble is I do not see major astro formations yet to support this.

So let us go with counts enumerated in option 1 for the time being. Cyclically it looks like we are in for an inversion in the period April 06 to May 11.Let us cross that bridge when we come to it.

One word of caution. I keep receiving mails from people stating that they had assumed market positions anticipating a turn sometimes indicated in these posts.

To the young and less experienced, let me emphasize, that is a wrong strategy to follow.

1.Stay with the trend.
2.It is down now, be short.
3.It has been down for 11 trading days, so keep your stop losses very tight.
4.When a counter move starts in the hourly, wait for at least 3 higher bottoms before taking a long position.
5.If Nifty takes out the previous high, increase your long bets.
6.If Nifty turns down forming another lower top, go short again always with stop losses.
7.Rest all which is discussed here is for entertainment, and deeper understanding of the market.
8.Let me reiterate, price action alone is the reality. Rest all are mere assumptions.

Have a wonderful week of trading ahead!