Bank Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 04 2015 update

Bank Nifty movements are better understood in a comparison with Nifty..
See these two charts..

So, Bank Nifty has weakened more than Nifty of late. Levels of 18500 or so are good entry points for a pre budget rally.
Astrologically Bank Nifty is in a weak period from Jan 27, 2015. Mars is in its 8th and this will continue till March 06th. In between expect an upmove coinciding with the effect dates of Sun Jupiter opposition.

Bank Nifty might do much better after March 2015. Second half of the year should be very good for Bank Nifty. I expect Bank Nifty to outpace Nifty this year, because both Jupiter in Leo in the second and retro Saturn should be favourable for BN.

Nifty Astro Technicals February 02 to 06 2015

We had a rather eventful week. In the shortened week gone by, Nifty opened with a gap from 8836 to 8871 on Jan 27th and till Jan 30, 2015, went on to hit an all time high of 8997 ( just 3 short of 9000!) before a huge sell off took hold and crashed the prices to 8775, before it finally closed at 8809.In one day, all the gains made since January 23, were wiped off.In fact this week`s closing of 8809 was lower than the previous week`s closing of 8836.
We see a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and a large bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

Both patterns occur after a sustained bull run and on good volumes.This suggests that a trend reversal is possibly on the cards. If this week also the bearish trend continues, we are  having  a much needed correction.Much needed because, a market which goes up without a correction is far more dangerous. It can collapse like a house of cards hurting a lot of people.
Neo wave wise, we are in wave c of abc.Inside wave c, the euphoric rise from 8237 up to 8997 ( 760 points) is wave a and with the sell off, we are possibly in wave b of c.After this wave b, we may possibly have wave c of c which could be the pre budget rally.

I have updated the cycles chart and shown the current counts on it. Break out from a horizontal, contracting triangle can be upto 125% of the largest leg of the triangle. Largest leg is of a of b, which is 8727-7961=666 points.The current upthrust had made 760 points, which is 114% and of c so the upthrust is technically complete.
But wave a and b of the xabc formation, were 31 and 29 day affairs respectively.Wave c has so far done only 10 days.With b of c and c of c remaining, wave c also could do 30 trading days.
Whether xabc will end with wave c? This is to be seen because with the recently concluded wave b being smaller than wave a, the chances of a diametric formation is high. This means we may have c up, d down, e up,  f down and g up in a butterfly or diamond pattern before the complex correction finally concludes. But this is only an assumption and can be confirmed only after wave c concludes.
There is every possibility that abc completes as a zig zag or a flat. Both wave a and this wave a of c were strongly bullish. This agrees with the nature of a zigzag.Critical thing will be the nature of wave b  of c ,which is unfolding.This should not be more than 61.8% of wave a of c. But then these are early days yet.
Looking at cycles,23 day cycles are the ones depicted in blue. Current uptrend seems to have topped out just after the mid point. See the starting point of this cycle. That was a point where the larger red 108 day cycle and the 23 day cycle bottomed out together.We saw Nifty falling to 7961 from 8727.
Now see where the blue cycle ends. It is marked as Feb 27. But the red cycle is soaring when the blue 23 day cycle ends on Feb 27.  Bigger cycles tend to influence smaller cycles. So the chances of a distortion to the smaller blue cycle is high. So Nifty may not form a significant low by Feb 27. At best it could be a shallow low.
This makes us consider 38.2% retracements more carefully....

The chart is not as complicated as it looks at first sight!
1. Nifty is bullish enough to reach 9082, based on angle break outs.
2.Nifty follows the 45 degree line faithfully. Every time it slips out, it makes an attempt to reach it. 8997 was one such attempt. Now that it has slipped out of the primary 45 degree line, it should take support at either the secondary 45 deg line or 30 degree line.
3, Both point to 8601 levels possibly in the second week of February 2015.
4. Wave b of c is also unlikely to go down in a straight line. we may see up and downs.
5. If the fibo levels do not hold, then we may conclude that a diametric is in the offing.

   Looking at astro formations, we begin the week with Aquarius rising and Moon in Gemini, in the 5th.
Jupiter retro is in the 6th ,Venus and Sun are in the 12th.After a weak start markets may bounce back,  especially till the Full Moon.
Full Moon on 4th February, triggers the Uranus Mars midpoint and gives an effect which is as if Mars is in conjunction to Uranus. Already Uranus and Ketu are inflamed. Since they are in Mercury star,they have been giving sudden, surprising moves in all markets, especially in the currency market.With this translation, Mars also adds its aggression to the equation. Since Pisces represents religious beliefs through Jupiter, terrorism could also escalate, till Jupiter trines with these planets.More volatility and divergences are expected in financial markets.
So the Full Moon may provide fresh triggers to  continue the downtrend.

The uptrend which began on January 15th, did not change track on January 22, when Mercury became retrograde, but went on right upto January 30, 2015. We have often seen that if a market does not change direction when Mercury goes retrograde, often does so during the mid period of Mercury retrograde.
February 02, 2015 is the tradeable Mercury retro mid period day. And  February 11, happens to be the date when Mercury becomes direct.
Nifty started a down move on January 30, one trading day before Mercury retro mid period day of February 02.
So,  will this down trend continue till Mercury becomes direct? That is, till February 11, 2015?

By the weekend, another important aspect will come into play. Capricorn Sun will oppose Cancerian, retro Jupiter.Given its customary orb, we may see a reversal in the period February 11 to 16, 2015.

So the question is, considering Mercury phenomenon and Jupiter Sun aspect together, will we see a bottom next week?

Reading everything together, we expect Nifty to drift down and form a bottom sometime next week. 38.2% seems probable, but we never know...
Friends, I have done my best to put my ideas as clearly as possible here. But Iam not perfect. Neither am I infallible. Please use this information appropriately and trade in such a manner that you do not lose capital.
Thank you all for your continuous support.
  

Nifty Technicals January 28 2015

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We are firmly in wave c of xabc.
Wave c can develop as a diametric or as a triangle. We will have to wait and see.
Wave c has achieved 8968 levels which we were watching.
In the complex wave channel, price has now touched the upper trend line.
Which seems to be a confluence of sorts.
The 23 day cycle is approaching an inversion point. If we have an inversion now. we may have a bottom after 23 days.
We may wait to see the hourly momentum moving up and reaching another top. Only when all three period momentum start down, shall we conclude the present upmove to be over.
In short, the uptrend is maturing. But wait for technical signals before assuming a reversal is in vogue.
Let us not forget, that we are only in the first wave of c, which is a strong up wave. So all reversals should be used to buy in dips or move out of shorts.Only if the complex wave channel breaks in faster time can we conclude that a major reversal has taken place.

Nifty Astro Analysis January 27 to February 06, 2015

Friends, let me first address the question of astrological analysis. Contrary to what some of you have expressed, there is no lack of continuity here. Astro analysis, most often in the past, has happened once a week, during the weekend. But sometimes during the week, I post articles of a technical nature in addition to the technical ones you see on the weekend as well.

Let me start with the conclusions of 

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2015/01/nifty-astro-view-point-jan-19-to-23-2015.html

“We find that in all major turning points, Rahu and Ketu were involved in aspects. Mostly when trines were there, we had long term falls. Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall. The effect of Saturn square Mars and Venus opposite Jupiter also is the same. To top it, we have three lunar phenomena this week, including a New Moon. So astro suggests that there is a scope for a fall and bottom formation. The question is whether Jan 23 is the low or will there be further downsides because of Ketu Uranus conjunction, opposed by Rahu?

That we will have to wait and see....”

So, analysing further,
In 2007/08, we see Pluto Ketu trine. Market Topped

In 2010, we see Rahu conjunct Pluto and opposed by Ketu. Market Topped

In August 2013, we see Ketu trine Pluto.  Market bottomed. (Jupiter was square Uranus, Venus was square Jupiter and Venus was square Uranus. In fact any triangular square formation is a sign of a bottom formation.)

So, when Ketu and Pluto become trine, markets go through a reversal point. Either topping or bottoming.

In January 15, 2015, Rahu and Ketu were square to Pluto. (We see the same triangular formation…Pluto, Ketu and Rahu. Uranus adds another additional dimension.)

What was our observation?

“Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall”.

We have seen that Rahu always brings in an element of surprise or unpredictability. Not for nothing is he referred to as Maayaavi, by the ancients. Additionally, Ketu was conjunct or close to conjunct with Uranus. Both of them are known to produce surprises and sudden market upheavals.

So the Rahu Pluto Ketu square did produce a bottom, but not after a fall. The bottom was instant, on January 15^th…By its very definition, a bottom means, market reaches a low point and then moves higher.
This is what happened on January 15^th. Nifty made a bottom of 8237 and had since, moved higher, upto 8911 so far.  

In fact the additional aspects of Saturn squaring Mars and Jupiter (R) opposing Venus only accentuate the bottom formation, or rather the up thrust after the bottom.

So, Astrological phenomena were true after all. My understanding alone was faulty. I had expected a further fall and then a bottom formation. Instead there was a bottom formed without any further fall..

Rahu Ketu axis squaring a Pluto Uranus duo which itself is in a square, is the rarest of rare celestial phenomena. It is not going to happen in our life time again. So I guess, you may make some leeway for my fault!

To sum up, the most important lesson I have learnt here is that slow moving planets when they get into aspects with one another, produce powerful effects. Squares and oppositions tend to produce bottoms while trines and conjunctions tend to produce tops. More specifically they produce heavy reversals. Exact nature of reversals could be gleaned by also analyzing what other aspects are in vogue at that point of time.

What next?

See this post of November 2014

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/11/nifty-astro-technicals-for-november-24.html

Whenever Pluto and Uranus head for a square, markets tend to race up to this rare signal.

Final Square is on March 18, 2015.
In fact, between December 24 2014 and March 18, 2015, Uranus and Pluto do not really go farther than one degree. Within this large time period, from February 20 to 18^th March, Jupiter trines with Uranus.

So the up move should last with corrections upto March 18. 2015, which is 37 trading days away. In fact the volatility could increase substantially, because of the following aspects from February 20 2015 onwards.

20 Feb Uranus begins to trine Jupiter. Curiously, Jupiter Uranus trine ceases on March 18^th!

21 Feb Venus conjunct Mars in Pisces

23 Feb Sun squares Mars.

01 March Venus joins Rahu Ketu axis.

04 Venus square Pluto-conjunct Uranus- both trine Jupiter. (Pluto, Uranus and Jupiter are slow moving)

05 March Mars joins the Rahu Ketu axis.

11 March Mars square Pluto-conjunct Uranus- both trine Jupiter

15 March Saturn turns Retrograde. (Within three days, Uranus and Pluto will be exact square. Uranus and Jupiter will cease their trine relationship. Again all players involved are slow moving.)

In the short term, upto February 07, 2015,these are some important signatures:

31 Jan Venus squares Saturn

01 Feb Mars conjunct Chiron

01 Feb Sun trines Rahu

01 Feb Venus conjunct Neptune

04 Feb Full Moon

05 Sun opposes Jupiter ( R)

Since we had a Mars Saturn square on January 16, we may expect a trough formation by the weekend or early next week. Do note that if a trough has to occur, prices have to first stop rising, reverse into a down move, form a low and then rise again.

When they rise again next week, they will immediately encounter resistance from all the above signatures and so there maybe another reversal from a top.

In short, the persistent uptrend which we had seen maybe coming to a close astrologically.

Let us just see historically how one set of conjunctions have behaved in the past.  

Uranus Ketu conjunctions…..

We had one on January 18, 2015. This was special because Pluto also was involved in a square.

Uptrend was arrested in February 1984.

In May 1999, markets declined after a prolonged rise.

We have the same signature from 18 Jan onwards..
I shall cover technicals in the next post...

Nifty Technicals update Jan 23 2015

Currently c wave is on and is confirmed by new all time high. Targets are projected by arrows. Jan 23 happens to be the 23 day cycle culmination. We have seen inversions ( instead of a low, a high is formed) with 23 day cycles in the past. Instances are circled.
Question is will an inversion happen now?
Chances are we may have a displaced inversion next week. This means the current up leg is maturing fast and the risk reward ratio is not in favour of longs anymore. Most of the anticipated news are  out.
Also every time an inversion happens, then the next cycle will see a low.
Since we are in c wave, that low could be a higher low, of course.
Last 46 day cycle was right translated as shown in the yellow high light. We had mentioned a month ago that the next cycle could be bullish. And so it is.
c way has another 25 days to go. Likely time equality is Feb 27, which coincides with a 46 cycle culmination.
b wave was a limiting horizontal triangle, for which 61.8% ration of break out is important. Those levels are indicated. Rest analysis by weekend.
Net sum up: Buy on dips.

Astro Technicals Update 20 Jan 2015

Here is an updated chart of what I had posted last Sunday. The key thing is the Gann arc. I think it will hold. See the arc, 8700 line, 8700 bar chart and the red angle line.
What if Nifty crosses 8731 and appreciates much further. Then my counts were wrong and Nifty is already in C of Xabc.
But, I need more confirmation for this. Else, I still favour a c of b down, however small.
Super New Moon, Mercury retro are all approaching in the next two days...
So be cautious. Do not get carried away. Let fortune favour the brave. We prefer safety first!

Nifty Astro view point Jan 19 to 23, 2015

Here is a snapshot of the astro charts for Nifty, Jan 16 to 23, 2015...

Last week I had mentioned about some heavy afflictions going on..Let us discuss them here and their likely impact.
Chart on the left is of January 16, and it shows, Pluto square Rahu and Ketu.Saturn, uncomfortable in Scorpio, squaring  uncomfortable Mars in Aquarius.
What did we have in the last week?Surprising events. RBI reducing rates and Swiss Franc going off the peg in which it was placed, against the Euro.Both are trend changers with far reaching effects.Off the markets, terrorism hysteria is at a new peak. Entire Europe is in a ferment. Terror alerts of the highest order have been announced by European Nations.More than 5000 trained terrorists with a European face seem to have quietly slipped into various parts of Europe.Volatility has been on the increase in several markets. Intermarket divergences are also observed.
Chart in the middle is of January 19, 2015.It shows the tight square formation of the Nodes continuing and Moon approaching Pluto. Moon is often times a catalyst.Venus and Mercury have begun separating, which is an indication of distribution taking place.  Venus begins its opposition with Jupiter.And January 20 is a New Moon day.Chief luminary Sun hates being in Saturn`s house.Mars is about to conjunct Neptune. Mars is fiery energy forward and Neptune is all fog and  liquid, without any shape, full of vagueness.Martian energy is seen to become dissipated.Additionally Mars moves into Rahu star, who herself is all feminine and liquid being in Moon star.  From hereon the Ascendant also is Aquarius and not Capricorn.Aquarius happens to be the eighth house of Nifty futures chart.
Chart in the right is of 23rd January, 2015, 3.30 pm. Mercury has become retrograde and has started approaching Sun.There are 5 planets in Aquarius, Venus, Neptune, Mars,Moon and Chiron and all are getting various degrees of aspects from Saturn.Additionally Ketu is about to conjunct Uranus. So volatility will increase again.Rahu and Ketu continue to be in square aspect with Rahu. So debt issues, currency issues, QE, terrorism, panic, hysteria...all these themes will continue to be in the forefront
How do Rahu and Ketu affect markets, when they are in aspects?
Let us see some charts, which are self explanatory...

We find that in all major turning points, Rahu and Ketu were involved in aspects. Mostly when trines were there, we had long term falls. Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall. The effect of Saturn square Mars and Venus opposite Jupiter also is the same. To top it, we have three Lunar phenomena this week, including a New Moon. So astro suggests that there is a scope for a  fall and bottom formation. The question is whether Jan 23 is the low or will there be further downsides because of Ketu Uranus conjunction, opposed by Rahu?
That we will have to wait and see....
Last week on Thursday, January 15th, on Makara Sankranti, Raghuram Rajan gave a pleasant surprise to the markets with an unexpected rate cut. Was it destined in the charts?
Let us analyse....

On 15th January 2015, Moon was in Visakha, in Jupiter star.So Jupiter effects were to be felt for the day. Since Jupiter was retrograde, opposite effects also could occur, depending on other aspects.What sort of effects could Jupiter give? It has to be a combination of Jupiterean and Mercury effects because Jupiter was in Mercury star. But then there were others also in Mercury star...namely Ketu and Uranus.  Both Ketu and Uranus are known for sudden effect. Uranus is known for shocking and surprising   effect. So we had a banking effect ( Jupiter) communicated ( Mercury) in a surprising manner ( Uranus and Ketu).That Moon was in aspect with Mercury manifested the event.

To summarize, planets are indicating that markets world over will continue to roil for some more time. More fluctuations and surprises are in store in currency markets. And stocks could react lower despite the bullish momentum seen. It is also possible that the markets could go lower than on January 23, 2015. But since Mercury is retro, maybe we could also see a bounce after January 27, 2015.

Having said all this, please note that Iam only student and these observations are meant for educative purposes. Please have adequate stop losses and risk management in place for all your trades.

Happy trading to all!

Nifty-Technicals January 19 to 23, 2015

January 12 to 16 was a roller coaster, with a totally surprising Reserve Bank announcement of a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates on Thursday and signaled it could cut further, amid signs of cooling inflation, provided the government continues to take steps to contain the fiscal deficit.

This was our observation last week...

“Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....

So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the weekend. Next week maybe we have another low (double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.  "

As expected, from a high of 8356, during the week Nifty formed a low of 8237 on January 14th and within the next two days reversed powerfully to hit a high of 8527 the very next day before closing the week on Jan 16, on 8514...A remarkable turn of events indeed.

So what is in store for this week?

Let us look at the technical picture first….

Nothing has changed as far as the wave counts are concerned. The sudden spurt last week has simply made wave b of b a little longer.Also the horizontal triangle expectation now does not exist..On the other hand, inside wave b we see an expanding triangle formation.We still continue to expect wave b of b to top out and commence c of b downwards..

Let us look at this daily chart a little more closely...

We see that wave a from 7724 to 8627 took 31 days.Wave b from 8627 downwards has so far also consumed 31 days and we still have the last  leg downwards, ongoing,...wave c of b.

Wave c of b has begun from 8446 down. This a leg was quite violent and from 8065, b leg has opened upwards. It has so far consumed 466 points and has reached up to 8531.While wave a, ( 8446 down) was a 3 day affair, wave b has so far taken, 7 days, with maximum movement in the last two days.( actually one day, on Thursday). So technically, wave b has taken more than twice the amount of time as wave a and so it quite mature, may be ready to top.This entire abc formation is taking the shape of a flat with a normal b wave so far.Upto 123.6% of wave a is considered normal for wave b.

So wave c of c of b should begin down sometime this week.

Only after that, do we expect wave c of xabc to open upwards. 

Looking at the momentum charts,

All the momentum charts are showing an uptick, which means there is some more upside left before a turn down.However the weekly momentum chart is hinting the possibility of a fractal repeating itself. Momentum ticks are also close to the respective red bands...

Drawing Gann lines and arcs on the medium term chart of Nifty, we cautiously expect that Nifty may face a down cycle immediately, followed by a volatile cycle with positive bias and a clear green trend  from end of March 2015.

To sum up, our technical outlook for the week is that Nifty may go up some more, but top out sometime early this week and seek lower levels. We may book profits if and only if we see three continuous down ticks on the hourly charts.

Happy trading !

Astro Technicals-Larsen and Toubro

LT ia a prestigious stock, and I have fond memories of this one. This was one of my earliest winners, way back in 1991/2.One of our friends has been asking about this stock and so let us see how this one looks like now.

LT peaked with Nifty, in 2008, fell with Nifty to March 2009, then rose with Nifty to November 2010,and then fell again to December 2011.From 2012, they parted ways. LT fell lower than 2011 low, shown as C in the chart whereas Nifty was much higher than its own C of 2011.This has got everything to do with the Infrastructure pack itself losing favour with the market. LT was one of the better performing ones,   

Technically, LT is in the last wave of the diametric which had started from 2008 Jan.Wave G is slated to bottom out this 2015 and a new bull run to start.

That is when we should hop on to this band wagon, because Infrastructure could be in favour in 2016.

We get a better picture with the weekly chart.We expect wave b to drop down some more and then wave c of b to start up. When that completes, wave b would be complete and then wave c down should start in an abc fashion. When wave c completes, entire wave G also would be complete.

So the first move medium term could be down.

Daily also gives a similar picture. Maximum downside could be by 1350. That could be a good long term buy. LT also is a good medium term trade because it shows legs on both side.. up and down.

Aquarius is the 8th house for LT. First  Mars, then Venus, Sun and finally Mercury will pass through Aquarius in the next 2 to 3 months. That is a time of test for the stock.From March to August it is Jupiter and that is when this stock will start to accelerate.

We shall periodically review this stock. It is a good one to own, because of powerful planets in the 11th and 2nd houses. 

Nifty Astro Technicals January 12 to 16, 2015

Let us begin this week`s views by looking up at the skies first. What is seen is not a pretty picture. The skies are dark and foreboding..

The week begins with a square of Pluto in Sagittarius with Rahu in Virgo and Ketu in Pisces.Already we have seen the destabilising effects of this aspect-The French shoot out and the resultant uproar..Western leaders are gathering in Paris and an estimated 1 million people are about to gather to express solidarity with the people who were killed by the terrorists. Already the event is assuming great importance in the annals of terrorism in the world. The reaction seems to me to be far greater than the event itself. French Police are on maximum alert. Do they know something which we do not know?
Being slow moving planets, Pluto, Rahu, and Ketu  will continue to be in aspects for a while. Even more ominous is that Uranus will join them by January 21. Already volatility is at a high in major markets of the world.
Venus and Mercury have been travelling together for a month now and from the weekend, Mercury will slow down in preparation for his retro movement from January 22 onwards and Venus will pull away. They tend to hold the market together when they are together and when they separate, financial markets tend to react.
Later on January 12th, Saturn ( as if we wanted this guy also activated!) in Scorpio begins to square Mars in Aquarius. The same day Mars will trigger the Blood Moon point of October.Aggression put down by cold, strict disapproval!  And Mars will react. This tends to pull down the markets and by the time Moon meets Mars on January 24, mostly before that a trough is likely to form.
By January 19th, Mars meets Neptune in Aquarius and all kinds of rumours will begin to float around and take a toll on volatility.
Rahu Venus Jupiter periods tend to give the market a lift up. But with a Venusian tail additionally and with Venus in Moon, I think the upmove may lose steam fast.
To sum up astro is indicating that because of these heavy aspects Nifty may come down till January 14th, and improve in the last two days.However, more negativity seems to be in store next week as well.

Technically, we look at the overall wave counts...

 Nifty has broken below the trendline connecting the two Xs.Wave b of b seems to have been completed and we are in wave c of b.This has one more downleg if b is a zigzag.
There is one more possibility...

We may also have a horizontal contracting triangle forming in wave b. If so the current upmove from 8065 is wave d and it may not reach 8446. Then we may see wave e downwards, going into the apex. Volatility has to considerably reduce for such a triangle to form.
Looking at the astro picture, Iam a little doubtful whether the triangle formation will continue. Alternate is the first option, where wave b of c terminates at the current closing of 8285 and wave c of c begins down on Monday, violating 8065..
Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....

So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the week end. Next week maybe we have another low ( double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.
Current aspects are personally bothersome as well. Please keep your cool, drive safely and above all, operate only with stop losses.
A wonderful Pongal and Makara Sankranti wishes to all my dear friends!