Monday, October 20, 2014

Nifty Hourly Updated view Oct 20, 2014

I have updated the hourly chart with today`s movements as well. The coloured portion is of two day movement now. We see that after the cycle bottomed out at 7724, Nifty has moved up sharply as part of the initial thrust out of a cycle. The question is "is the new cycle right translated or left?"If Nifty weakens in the first four hours in tomorrow`s trade, below 7850, then the new cycle is a right cycle and Nifty will weaken further. It could come back close to 7724 levels.On the other hand if Nifty strengthens beyond 7900, then we are on a left translated cycle and we may buy.In such a case, Nifty could go to 7960 initially.

Nifty Astro View October 20, 2014

Some of the important astro formations are depicted here.
1. We are in the reversal time of Sun square Pluto and Venus square Pluto.
2.Mars is moving out of Scorpio. Just see the damage Mars brought about when he was strong in Scorpio. The day Mars entered Scorpio, the market topped out.
3. From today Mars is in Sagittarius till  November 27.Sagittarius is a sign of exaggeration and Mars likes aggression. Once Mercury becomes direct, Jupiter also will gain strength, since Jupiter is in Mercury star. That should be positive for the markets.
4. Mercury also did not effect any trend reversal when he became retrograde. So  most probably in the mid period he should contribute. His effect had been delayed by his affliction by Rahu.
5. Interestingly when Mercury was direct and went through Rahu affliction, markets tanked. When he is reverse and getting conjunct with Rahu, it should case a positive effect. Then this also means when Mercury becomes direct again and confronts Rahu, another reversal should take place. This is the subject matter for October 26th onwards.
6. Sun and Venus are beginning their long conjunction now. Venus is in her own house and Sun enters his house of debilitation.The conjunction may not have enough strength for a sustained up move.
7. Ketu Jupiter trine also should show strength, but possibly after Mercury regains strength. Both Ketu and Jupiter are in Mercury  stars. 
8. The party spoiler could be the eclipse and Mercury getting caught in between.

So we could have an upmove, but it may not be very sustainable. Trend strength is better after Diwali. 
In short, volatility continues. Be cautious till this eclipse goes away.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 18 2014

In this post we will look at the Neo waves of Nifty and astro correlations if any..
We begin as usual with the monthly charts...
I have gone back to the diametric count of ABCDEF followed by a final G down leg.
1. If after E, we count the impulses as 1,2 and 3 ending at 8180, the third wave looks too well channelled. In an impulse way, the waves do not channel.I was hoping that the third wave would break the channel, by crossing 8250 but it did not.
2.If we assume that wave 3 has topped out then the next wave 4 should form a complex correction for about 7 months, that is upto April 2015.This is possible, but somehow does not look probable.
So we will park the Ascending triangle followed by impulse wave for the time being and go back to the diametric correction.
If so, then the daily chart should look as follows...

I have shown the expanded chart of the current F wave, which is a complex correction involving two diametrics, connected by an x wave.
The most important questions right now, are
1.Has the second diametric ended at 8180, at the second g?
2. Has the larger degree F wave ended?
3.Has the larger G wave down started? What would decide this?

Let us expand the last two daily waves and see further....
Option A.Wave g as a zigzag has consumed 19 trading days and moved the price from 7540 to 8180.
As per Neowave, if a previous trend has to reverse,then the last leg of the previous trend must be retraced in faster time.
Now the move from 8180 down has so far consumed 25 trading days and the price has not gone below 7540.
So according to this analysis, larger F wave is not yet complete. And possibly there could be another x wave followed by upward correction possibly as a flat or more likely as a triangle which could end larger F wave.
Option B: Now if g had concluded not as a zigzag, but as an Extracting Triangle,at 8160, then the development post 8160 has still time left, to retrace wave g in faster time.Another 14 trading days, to be precise. So within the next 14 trading days, if Nifty breaks 7540 and it reaches the channel bottom ( see the daily chart, the 0-x line extended), then we conclude that larger wave F has indeed completed and we are in for a deep correction of G wave for the next 13 months.
Looking at the overall economic environment, some of the results which have come in, political and governance performance of the incumbent Government and the counter steps being taken or proposed to be taken by the Western Governments, my bias lies with option A.
Also the Gann angle calculations which I had shared in this blog some time ago seems to indicate some more upmove.
The only difference in my recent counts is that I tend to consider the current wave environments as corrective.
All this is fine, but how does the present tradeable scenario look like?
Let us look at the hourly charts...

We seem to be in a complex correction to the g wave. Recently we had broken down from a descending triangular formation and achieved 75% projection of the triangle, downwards. At present we seem to be in upward b with overhead resistance at 7848.After that I expect another down leg to complete the c wave. If b wave becomes very strong, then the c will fail later.
So the waves say be bullish on hourly, but be cautious because there may be a c round the corner.
Just compare with what the cycles and the momentum have to say!

Nifty Technicals Cycles Update October 17 2014

Given above is the hourly cycle chart update. I have used only two cycles 81 and 147. Even 147 is an adaptation of 160, so it is really one cycle.Once we understand this we can go to multiple cycles. Last time the blue cycle bottomed out 18 hours after a low. So this time also we had the same time band in consideration. Possibly because some other larger cycle was in action and so the market seemed to make a low yesterday at 7724. Thereafter the next cycle seems to have started. The next 30 bars could be bullish or bearish. If the market tops out before the next 3 trading  days, then we are in for another new low. If not we are going higher.
Just have a look at the nature of cycles in this chart, for better clarity...
Next we look at the daily chart for more clarity...

As per daily we may have the next low on October 22 or 27 ( I have not considered Muhurat trading.) A more significant low on Nov 3 to 5. Both dates match with the hourly also.
So it looks like the present hourly bounce is more of a dead cat bounce. Or at best whatever up move we get may be retraced.
What do the momentum charts say?

Since weekly and monthly look negative yet, our bias will be on sell on rises for positional. And buying for intraday. Of course the moment we see one downward bar  reversal in the hourly we will go short. Remember, going long is actually counter trend movement.
We will see the wave counts and astro picture in a separate post.  

Friday, October 17, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 16, 2014

Our friend Harish had asked about hourly time cycles of Nifty and whether we could use them for trading.
We definitely can! Cycles are as valid in shorter time frames as they are in longer time frames. However, they are less stable than the longer cycles and so we should use them with other technical tools.
Have a look at this chart....
 Red lines represent 147 day cycles and blue lines represent 81 day cycles.These have been plotted from a previous significant low. Significant lows are when several cycles bottom out together. Thereafter based on the influence each is subjected to, they move out keeping in phase with one another.
We can see how,  near an important low, both the cycles came together.In fact the rally which occurred after that August 08 low, took every one by surprise, in its aggressiveness,With this cycle info, we could have traded the rise confidently.
Sometimes we see the market lows forming just after the cycle lines or before them. That is where we se other technical tools to understand the movement better and time ourselves.
I have measured here the cycle displacements by those small, coloured rectangles.
Those are expanded in the chart here....
The rectangles and the bars are more visible here.From the left rectangles, we infer that the red cycles were 18 bars late and the blue cycles were 18 bars early.
The next blue circle is due within 8 bars.That means another market low is due by eod tomorrow or, the blue cycle is early by 8 bars and the market bottomed out today.In other words, the late phase of 18 days has been reduced to 8 days.This is only a possibility.
To narrow down our choices, we look at other technical tools..

Nifty has broken out of the downward sloping channel and closed below it. So some more weakness is indicated.Hourly momentum is oversold but has not bounced yet.So we wait for a strong reversal signal. That would also mean one of the  cycles has bottomed out and it is time for going long.
But only after we get a reversal confirmation.
Or else the market could still go down.Any which way, since the cycle is due within 8 bars, ( 1 day), we should know in a couple of days.
The longer red cycle is due between Oct 23 and 26. So between tomorrow and October 23, we may expect a top. If the top takes time to form, then we are going much higher. If the top is formed within 18 bars, then we will be going down further.Which means it would be time to short the market.
In the further right side of the chart, we see one of the blue cycles bottoming out on November 03.
Remember in an earlier post I had mentioned the possibility of a daily cycle bottoming out by November 03 to 06th?  That could be a good low.
Astrologically, we are in the mid period of Mercury retrograde.So a trend change is possible. Tomorrow, retrograde Mercury meets his Master, the Sun.We will be on the 7th trading day after Venus squared Pluto.There is  potential for a low.
Rest, of course is in the hands of Lord Shiva.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Nifty Cycles October 14, 2014

In technical analysis, we spend far too much time agonizing over price levels. Actually, time is also very important. In fact advanced Gann theories emphasize that price and time are interchangeable. One way we could measure time in market parlance is through the analysis of cycles.
Market movements are nothing but the composite effect of several cycles acting in unison. Some cycles are very long and some are very short. But all of them are always acting. When significant lows are formed, then several cycles bottom out immediately.So always, in cycle analysis, it is the bottoms which are important.
Here is a chart on  simple daily cycles which keep repeating...
What do we see? The dotted lines are getting bunched up by November, 03, 04 and 05.So we may expect an important low to be formed by that time.Saturn would just enter Scorpio,Debilitated Sun and  Venus could be conjunct in Libra and Ketu and Jupiter would be parting ways from a trine formation.Since the last quarter of a cycle is negative, we must be cautious from October 30 itself.

Is everything going to collapse?
Not really. Look at the monthly chart of Nifty....

Cycles are 18 to 21 months duration and are represented by black lines.The next cycle low is due by March 2015.
The relevant questions are, 
1. Will we see the fractal envelopes repeating? That is will Nifty form a shallow low and keep moving up later on? 
2. Or will she spike out and then form a sharp low?

Iam inclined to the later, that too by the second week of January 2015.Any how, there has to be one big upleg coming, as per this cycle analysis.
Enjoy the unexpected Holiday!

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Nifty Technicals update October 14 2014

Our friend Pankaj had asked an interesting question.In the 30 min chart above, whether the point marked as 7832 c was not the completion of c, but the point marked as a ( 7797) was the completion of c? His reasoning is that the wave after 7797 has made a perfect impulse, as shown in the 5 min chart above.
My take is as follows.
1. I do not expect c to go down below 7797..c need not necessarily do so. For example if c is part of a triangle, then c would be smaller than b, right?
2. The environment is conducive for a triangle and not for an impulse.S&P is down, whereas inflation data and Reliance results favour bullishness. So majority participants are confused and that confusion is prevalent in Nifty movements.
3. Mostly impulse behaviour would be seen when world markets move in tandem..
4. Even by wave counts, if we shift c from 7832 to 7797 point, then degree wise c wave would not match.
Any way thanks a lot to Pankaj for this response. These things ae what makes writing this blog worthwhile.