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Sunday, May 17, 2015

Dow Jones Update May 2015

Have a look at these previous updates..
http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/11/astro-technicals-of-dow-jones.html

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2015/02/dow-jones-and-gold-charts-feb-2015.html

Here is the current long term update. Dow may continue its bullish way till well into 2017 second half.We expect a good correction to levels below 17500 by March 2016.



Crude


Mars in Taurus 1985 and 2015

From Nifty Astro Technicals April 27 to 30 2015

"....by May 04th, Mars will be moving to Taurus and Venus to Gemini.Out of these two signs, Taurus is more important, because all planets passing through Taurus must necessarily meet the gaze of Saturn from Scorpio. All of them will have some destabilising effect bestowed upon them because of Saturn.
Let us see how Mars behaved last time it met Saturn opposition from Scorpio....."
 Since Mars is in Taurus for roughly 45 days, the first 0ne third when he traverses in Sun star, he depresses the market. And then there is a rebound...
Common factor is an immediate uptrend and then a pronounced fall..This means markets could turn down sharply in the middle of May and recover only in June, when Mars gets ready to move into Gemini...."

Saturday, May 16, 2015

USDINR and Nifty

Since FIIs are an important moving force in our stock markets and since they bring in dollars and convert them into rupees when they come in and vice versa when they go out, it may be useful to look at the currency and Nifty together.

So what is the next move in Rupee? How will it impact Nifty?




Long term timing lines from previous high and low appear to intersect Rupee movement at its current position. So USDINR may form an important top now and start moving down in the medium term. In other words, Rupee could start appreciating from now on, for the medium term.
This could be bullish for Nifty in the medium term, if the correlation continues.

Looking at Nifty medium term,
Line 1 is the long term timing line for Nifty. She had recently broken it downwards.
Line 2 is its parallel line, which also has been pierced downwards, making the near term trend as down.
Currently Nifty is moving down along line 3.As can be seen, the immediate resistance ahead is at 8400. If Nifty gets resisted here, she may travel along line 3 and reach line 5.This support rests at 7961.
She is unlikely to break this line. If she still does it then she may go to line 6 or 7.If Nifty breaches 8145, she will be in the second circle. Then look to 7961 confidently.  If Nifty breaches 8356, then look at 8546 confidently.
As per the Rupee chart, if Nifty bottom out now at these levels we can confidently invest for the medium term. I think June 2015 may provide us this opportunity.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals May 14, 2015


I have updated the Daily Astro Aspects chart.
We have Mars opposite Saturn and Venus square Rahu and Ketu coming up immediately. Since they have been given in the top of the chart, it means we may expect a spike up to the aspect and a spike down within a day or so.
May 18 is New Moon. It is also the date of Mercury turning retro. This time, Mercury is in Moon, Mars is in Moon and Rahu is in Moon. So volatility may continue.Now this is in the bottom. So Nifty may move from a high of 15th to a low on 18th and turn up again till May 22.May 22 may be one more reversal.
Now, the exact extent of reversals may be ascertained and followed up through technical tools.


 Look at the cycles. Blue cycle had inverted on May 11th as expected.Volatility is because of directional clash of the blue and red cycles.Inverted blue cycle may promote a low towards its mid point. 108 day red cycle has turned down. Being the bigger cycle, it may push the market down.
Neo wave count has been updated.  We are in volatile b wave. b wave is up. After this b wave we will have a c wave down to complete the first leg down after the complex correction. Next big up move may happen in June 2015.
 Currently b wave looks to form a diametric.After g a decline looks possible.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals May 11 to 15, 2015

After hitting a high of 8356, Nifty crashed to a low of 7997, before closing at 8192. We had expected a bottom last week and we saw it at 7997.
So we have an interesting week ahead.Will Nifty carry on improving? Or will she break down and seek levels lower than 7997?
Let us seek some answers, starting with Astro...

Aspects shown in the bottom half of the chart are negative and aspects shown at the top portion of the chart are positive. Negative aspects favour bottom formation. So the market should decline nearby these aspects and top ones favour short term tops, after which market tends to move down.
Pluto retrograde, Venus square Neptune, Mars and Mercury squaring Pluto and Sun trine Pluto---all favoured Nifty moving down to a bottom, last week and that is what she had done. Special mention must be made of Jupiter squaring Full Moon on May 04th and within two days, Nifty crashed heavily to 7997.
For the week beginning May 11, we find that both Venus and Mercury are entering extreme declination positions. Moreover they are also Out of bounds. This makes both of them very unstable and lead to increased volatility. Jupiter is in Aslesha, ruled by Mercury and so he also will be unstable.
On May 11th, Moon is in the 8th house at start of trading.It is in the sub of Venus,which is the 5th and 12th house lord, placed in the 12th. So Nifty may open tentatively lower but gain strength later on. When Moon moves to Mars star, Nifty should move up steadily.Upmove may continue for 2 or 3 days, after which Venus square Rahu and Ketu, along with Mars opposite Saturn should take over and Nifty may resume her down move, close to the weekend. It is significant that Moon will be in Revathi by then.Mercury in the 12th may cause some problems for Bulls.
 Declination chart presents a picture which is self explanatory.
Gann Angles also suggest that May 14th or 15th could see a short term top..If Nifty does not manage to reach the higher slope line, then it could prove to be very bearish later on.
 Our cycles present more or less a similar picture. Since we are in an inverted  cycle, we have been expecting a short term top when the blue cycle hits the ground.So we may expect a short term top by around May 14/15.After which the more powerful red cycle takes over. Since this is firmly in the down trend and since Nifty is approaching the final phase of a turned down cycle, we may see significant price damage after the current up move tops out.
With consistent down ward pressure,Neo wave wise, we may consider wave e of the extracting triangle to be completed. So there is a good chance that the upmove from 5119, to 9119 may finally be over, as a complex corrective pattern.
To understand better,let us look at long term daily chart first....

 We see very clearly that Nifty had fallen off from the 45 degree central line, quite decisively and has now taken support on the next parallel 45 degree line, shown as dotted line.It is following the path of the red arc downward  as well.We have seen that it takes significant energy for Nifty to break through this red arc and move up.Every arc is an energy level.
When Nifty fell off from the central 45 degree line, it took support and reversed on the orange parallel line.
Similarly, if Nifty breaks the current dotted 45 deg parallel line, it may take support on a lower orange parallel line.
If it recovers from here with an energy burst, then the resistance is at 8627, as per angles.Right now, slippage to the lower orange line looks more probable.
Coming back to Neo wave, after wave e, we have seen an abc correction so far.Wave c may not be over yet. Low point of 7997 could be wave a of c and the current uptrend is wave b of b. So once this b of b is over, final c of c may start down. 
This then is our current expectation.Cycles and astro also seem to agree.
Even simply channel techniques on Monthly indicate a down trend in force, despite the recent up move.

Summing up,
Current upmove could be persist till May 14 or 15. Then the down trend could resume to seek levels lower that 7997. 
Again, again and again, these are all just expectations and assumptions. Putting money on the line must be done only when Nifty moves in the expected direction. Not before. 
No trade is to be done expecting Greece issue to worsen or improve.GST bill or Land Bill passing is of no consequence to the trader who wants to make money. 
How Nifty moves after such events is the only consideration. All what has been given above are just guidelines and are not infallible.
Enjoy your trading and let it be profitable! 

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals May 04-08, 2015

The last week of April 2015, was quite significant for our markets. Nifty breached 8269 convincingly and reached a low of 8145 before closing at 8182. Now this was also the weekly and monthly closings.
Nifty is truly at cross roads now. Point E is the August 2013 low of 5119. Since then Nifty has been forming a triple combination consisting of a diametric till wave x and then another diametric till 2nd x. SAfter that it looked like it was forming a third and last diametric, but at the crucial leg e, it had weakened considerably more than it should and it has also formed a low weekly and monthly closing.As per Neo wave, triple combinations must end with the 2nd x formation.
So now we have two possibilities:
1. The last wave is forming an irregular flat, of which waves a and b has been completed and what is remaining is the last leg c of the flat. With that e is over,and we may have f down and g up, before the triple correction is finally over.This would mean the final culmination could come in two months.For this Nifty must strongly move up and close above 8845 in the next several weeks.
2.After 2nd x, we are not forming another diametric at all, but a triangle whose last leg is e and has been completed at 8845. This would be confirmed if Nifty moves up, closes wel below 8845 and then moves down and breaks 8065 on a closing basis.If so then we could see 7000 levels in Nifty pretty quickly.
By regular TA, we see lower top and lower bottoms being formed and this also supports option 2.

In the monthly chart also, Nifty has formed the second consecutive bear candle and has convincingly broken out of the long term 45 degree line.We have seen that in the past, if the original timing line of 45 degrees is violated, then Nifty tends to take support on another parallel line to the 45 degree line.It is marked in black.Another significance is the slope of the green arc.This is intercepting the black parallel line at 7724 or thereabouts, in about two months time. If this line does not hold then we look to the black arrow line along the red arc, to 6700 levels.  
Let us focus a little closer...

And the daily...

This points out to a 8500-8600 level of retracement immediately. So the longer term charts are suggesting more weakness and the daily chart is suggesting a pull back..
Simple angles point out that the time and price squaring is nearly over and a pull back could happen this week, upto May 13 to 15.
Extrapolation gives us additional dates into the future...
Our summation?
Nifty could bottom out temporarily in a day or two and start a pull back till the middle of May, 2015.
Of course we move only if prices confirm..

Happy trading!