Thursday, December 18, 2014

December 18, Nifty Technicals

Overnight global cues look good, but the dollar has breached play it safely..Look to the overhead Fibo clusters..they may offer resistance. If they are taken out, we have a short term up move on our hands. Weekly is still down, so caution is advocated.
8175 8189 are important levels to watch.7904 is the floor, being 80% of the upmove from 7724.
tion advocated with longs.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Nifty Astro Outlook December 15 to 19, 2014

The week begins with Uranus and Pluto square for the sixth time, on December 15, 2014. We had observed how Jupiter becoming retrograde had robbed the markets of some bullishness.And this had precipitated a market top on December 04/05 itself, when Venus and Jupiter were in waxing trine to each other.Since aspects are basically energy transfers, this interaction and early arrivals are to be expected.We see  the same thing happening with cycles. If a cycle is due in 10 days, but if a bigger cycle is due immediately, the smaller cycle is forced to fall along with the larger cycle. Opposite is true if the larger cycle is due some ten days away and the smaller cycle is due now. Larger cycle tend to force the smaller cycle to expand and bottom out some where in between the 10 day period.
Another aspect, in fact the last of the Jupiterean aspects for a while, is Sun trine with Jupiter. Since both are in Mercury stars, the effect may not be very large.
This means the negative energy of Pluto square Uranus, retro Jupiter and after effects of Sun conjunct Mercury..should dominate this week. If any bounce happens it could be the Sun Jupiter trine in play, but I do not expect it to be very high..
8300 or 8350 should be a good first target.   But the medium term trend astro wise is down.
By the weekend, Venus squares Uranus and conjuncts Pluto. This is a powerful, impactful event which should manifest as an upmove in a falling market, but with a lag.Since, by December 23, Venus squares Rahu,   Moon squares Rahu and Mars trines Rahu, we may expect a good improvement in the period just after December 24. In other words, let us not carry shorts post Christmas !

Nifty Astro Technicals December 15 to 19, 2014

Let me begin by recalling the comments of last week....

"Astro wise we see the market is in a mature stage right now.Sun Mercury dance has now started spinning in the wrong way.Big rises normally caused by a Uranus Pluto square seems muted because of the Jupiter retro formation in between.The stars seem to advise caution to the bulls and have a hint of a smile for bears.Since Saturn is in Scorpio, the underlying tone of the market may continue to be bullish,but a correction may happen."
Well, it was timely wasn't it? From a high of 8546, Nifty nose dived to a low of 8216, before closing at 8224.What is more When Dow crashed from 17991 to 17281, when other world markets corrected hard and when Oil came down to $62.54,anxiety became panic driven...
So what do we expect next....
Let us start with the monthly charts of Nifty first...
 We are either in Wave F of the diametric which started from January 2008, or ABCDE correction had ended at 5119 and we are in an impulse upmove in which wave 3 is about to mature..If we consider wave F Is in progress, then wave F is a complex corrective involving two x waves in lower time frames. Currently we are in wave b of the 2nd-xabc formation. Accordingly after this wave b down, we will have one more wave c upwards, which will complete wave F in the monthly scale. Thereafter we should be seeing wave G downwards, which should consume the whole of  2015 and bring down Nifty to 7300 levels or even lower.
On the other hand if Nifty is in the 3rd wave and if it completes soon, then the 4th wave should be a complex corrective down which also comes down to the 7000+ levels.
After that Nifty may move up rapidly in 2016 and touch 10400-500 levels completing the trend cylce which began in 2008 October.It is possible that wave 4 or b wave of wave G assume bullish tones closer to the budget, appearing as if impulse push is on in the market. That will become clearer only closer to the budget..
So investors should offload their holdings in every rise, booking profits between now and the budget period.

   Just look at the monthly momentum charts..It is in a very high 95 levels. It is showing tendencies of a down move. Even a small move could shave off 1000 to 2000 points..So caution is what the chart is flashing...

Within the monthly, we move to weekly charts...
What do we see? 8180 was an important level of trend maturity.Now at 8224, Nifty is very close to 8180. If it sustains at this level and moves up, then we will be in another uptrend.On the other hand, if Nifty breaks this level now, then we shall see much lower levels starting from 7800 first.Parallel 45 degree levels may act as supports if such a thing happens.

Let us look at the momentum charts to understand better....Most of the understandings from here on apply for traders more rather than investors...The chart is self explanatory...
So immediately we may see some bounce in the the smaller time frames, but that may only flatter to deceive.
Let us go down even further,,,to daily cycles:Our observation of the previous week are reproduced, along with new observations in black.
Current 108 day cycle is a right translated cycle. Both the 108 day and the 23 day cycles are slated to bottom out in the December 24- 29 day period. This could also be a little advanced to December 19 or 22.So an important bottom should happen in the period mentioned above.The next cycle should start violently bullish, but may form a top closer to this bottom and start declining. In other words, the next cycle could be left translated.
What does this mean? 
Whatever bounce which happens is an opportunity to go short..When the cycle bottoms out, in December 22-29 period, then we will get an opportunity to go long as well..

Going one more degree lower, to 30 min, we see that 8175-80 level seems to be an important support level from angles points also. 
To conclude;Longer time frames are indicating caution. Weakness has started to creep into the market.Lower time frames are indicating some bounce is on the way.Use them by all means, for trading.but with tight stop losses.Right now the path of least resistance for the market, is down.Always keep this in mind when taking positions.
Astro discussions shall follow in another post.

Have a happy, yet safe trading! 
Of course, all of this is my view point. I shall not be responsible for any trades which anyone does based on these information.Please contact your investment advisor before committing to the market.All information in this blog is for educative purposes only.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Sun Mercury dance beginning in the second half of the year.

During the last three months of the year, Mercury goes retro, then becomes direct, conjuncts the Sun goes past the Sun and again becomes retrograde. This of late has been happening in the region Virgo to Aquarius..Here is a small analysis to throw some light on the effect on Nifty because of this astro phenomenon.

So Sun-Mercury conjunction of this type where Mercury comes from behind and conjuncts Sun, we seem to see a market reaction. 
December 08, is one such conjunction....

Nifty Astro Technicals December 08 to 12, 2014

Let us start with the Astro formations first....

Astro wise we see the market is in a mature stage right now.Sun Mercury dance has now started spinning in the wrong way.Big rises normally caused by a Uranus Pluto square seems muted because of the Jupiter retro formation in between.The stars seem to advise caution to the bulls and have a hint of a smile for bears.Since Saturn is in Scorpio, the underlying tone of the market may continue to be bullish,but a correction may happen.

How about the cycles? Well, we have had another inversion happening and so a top somewhere between December 08 and 20 seems to be on the cards..However since the current cycle has formed a right translation so far, the next cycle post December 24 could also be bullish and take Nifty to new heights.
Looking at Neo waves, either wave a of 2nd xabc has been completed as of December 05 or there is a possibility of one  more small up leg pending. Any which way, we seem to be on the verge of a small term top.  

Nifty`s 5 min says that we just have to decide whether the final sub wave seen now is going to be wave g of a Diametric or wave e of a triangle. Again the upward move seems to be capped. 

If wave a is over, then we may see wave b down, from the 2nd x abc formation and finally wave c upwards. Since in any complex correction only 2 x waves are allowed, we may see a bigger top and a bigger correction in the first few months of 2015.
Cautious and profitable trading to all! 

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Hi friends,
Thank you for the mails you all have sent asking to be included in the blog reading list. I shall do the needful. As mentioned earlier, this blog shall be public till December 09, 2014 and thereafter it would become closed.
I intend to continue with my articles on Astro and Technicals, only difference it shall be available only to a select few who are members of this blog.

Meantime, here is an update on Nifty hourly and 5 min.
Please refer the hourly chart posted on November 24, 2014, in the following link.

I have reproduced an update of the very same chart here...

On Nov 24 itself, we had expected a double top around 8600+. Nifty subsequently went up to 8613 before retreating.A similar up move of e leg coming closer to 8600 could happen, before wave a of 2nd abbc comes to an end.After that a faster retracement, breaking the b-d line at around 8500 could be the confirmation that wave b downward has commenced, in the 2nd-abc series.
Please see the 5 min chart for elaborate wave counts...

Astrologically, the next big event is Jupiter is turning retrograde on December 09, 2014.After that it is the Uranus Pluto square on December 15th, 2014.Both these events normally match and join hands in producing a top formation. So get ready to sell off expensive stocks and the index, next week onwards.