Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Nifty and RSI

Positive divergence in 30 min charts. Immediate up move can be expected.

Hidden positive divergence on daily charts. Again immediate up move is indicated. 
Weekly RSI is falling from an over bought zone. So we may expect the immediate short term upmove to dissipate at some point and a larger down move can take place.

There is a hint of negative divergence in the medium term. It has to further develop. At this point there is no clarity.This could mean a decline of good proportions in the medium term, if the divergence continues.
Very long term has shown a powerful hidden positive divergence. So Nifty is on her way to  take out the May 2015 highs maybe some months later.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

In four years


The US Government is about to

 lose its #1 lender

This isn’t supposed to be happening.
The financial crisis is years behind us. The economy is supposedly on solid footing. The government keeps gushing about how much tax revenue they’re collecting.
Usually when government debt expands so rapidly it’s because they’re waging war, fighting a major recession, or financing some serious infrastructure projects.
But none of these things are happening.
Think about it– yesterday I told you that the debt is now $19.5 trillion. The debt hit $18.5 trillion in November of last year… meaning that they added $1 trillion to the national debt in just 10 months.
What did you get for that $1 trillion? Did they defeat ISIS? Give everyone a massive tax rebate? Recapitalize all of their insolvent trust funds?
Nope. Nada. They made a trillion dollars vanish into thin air and have absolutely nothing to show for it.
That’s because an absolutely astonishing level of spending (and waste) is built into the system now.
Just keeping the lights on, i.e. simply paying interest on the national debt, plus all the mandatory entitlement programs, burns through almost 100% of their tax revenue.
This means that they have to go into debt to finance nearly everything we think of as government, from fake airport security to the national parks to the Internal Revenue Service.
To be fair, this approach has worked well for years. The US government has had an ample supply of lenders willing to fund its largess.
But that pipeline of suckers will soon be running dry.
In fact, according to the Treasury Department’s most recent data, two of America’s biggest foreign lenders (China and Japan) are already cutting back on their $2.37 trillion of US debt.
Then there’s the Federal Reserve, another one of the government’s major lenders, which now owns $2.46 trillion of US debt.
This is up from just $479 billion right before the financial crisis blew up in 2008. So the Fed has expanded its Treasury holdings by 5-fold (not to mention its ownership of mortgage backed securities has exploded from $0 to $1.7 trillion over the same period…)
But one of the Fed’s major challenges is that they’re nearly insolvent, with a razor-thin capital ratio of just 0.8%.
Simply put, if the Fed continues to conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air to feed the government’s insatiable appetite for debt, they’re risking a major currency crisis at a minimum.
That leaves Social Security, far and away the single largest owner of US Treasuries.
It’s been a neat little scam for decades. Workers in the United States pay a portion of their paychecks to Medicare and Social Security, some of which ends up in the pockets of retirees each month.
The rest of that tax revenue (the “Social Security surplus”) is loaned to the federal government.
Over the years, Social Security has loaned the government trillions of dollars, stockpiling entire warehouses full of IOUs from the Treasury Department.
But here’s the thing– Social Security and Medicare are rapidly running out of money.
Each year in their annual reports, in fact, their respective boards of trustees describe the programs’ financial woes in excruciating detail. They don’t pull any punches.
The Trustees themselves explain that Social Security’s two biggest trust funds will start running terminal deficits in 2020 until they are fully depleted 14 years later.
This means that in just four more years, Social Security will no longer be able to loan any more money to the federal government. Uncle Sam is about to lose his biggest lender.
What’s more, the US government is going to have to come up with trillions of dollars more to pay back Social Security in the subsequent years.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg: the US government is also staring down the barrel of several trillion dollars worth of other enormous expenses that they’ll need to pay.
Major components of US infrastructure are in dire need of a facelift that is estimated to cost $1.4 trillion.
Then there are entire federal trust funds that are either insolvent or living on borrowed time–like the Highway Trust Fund that was nearly depleted last year…
… or the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund, which guarantees trillions of dollars worth of deposits in the US banking system, yet is undercapitalized and fails to meet its own insurance threshold.
Even more critical is the pension fund crisis across the United States, where private, state, and local pensions face a funding shortfall exceeding $7 trillion according to credit agency Moody’s.
Yet the federal government’s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which is supposed to guarantee the pensions of 30 million American workers, is itself insolvent and in need of a government bailout.
There is no end to these liabilities that the US government has been pushing off for years.
So in addition to losing its biggest lenders, they’ll need to come up with trillions of dollars more to pay for these looming obligations.
Like it or not, this party starts in just four more years.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Nifty Futures Cycles Update September 16, 2016

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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Dollar Index-USD INR & Gold

Dollar Index has been undergoing a prolonged correction since 2001.It had formed a triangular pattern at the point marked as E and then broke out strongly. Since March 2015, it had entered into a sideways move, by way of a complex correction. Either the move out of E is the next leg of a diametric formation as F and currently we are in the last leg G of the prolonged correction from 2001.Or the move out of point E is the start of a new impulse 1 and we are in wave 2 right now. Any way the complex correction has some more downside left..
See the expanded chart...

We see the complex correction clearly here. Also when Fed raised interest rates, contrary to classical thinking, Dollar did not strengthen. It actually depreciated.Probably the markets are not likely convinced about the Fed analysis of the economy strengthening. Indicators point out that the economy has been strengthening only feebly and is still prone to sudden shocks.The complex corrective wave of G or 2 has been going on for a year now and may end soon after the elections.Then dollar could enter into a new impulse or wave 3 of an existing impulse. That could see sustained dollar strength probably next year.
Next chart is of International Gold...

We see that when Dollar depreciated from 2001 , Gold was in a sustained bull run exhausting itself on September 09, 2011 (09/11 ! ) the same time Dollar bottomed out.After that Gold had a correction from 1900 levels to 1050 levels as wave A. Since the rise of Gold was sustained, we surmise that Gold correction is not yet over. So the recovery from 1050 levels is wave B.It is still on going.We see the nature of B wave in the recovery of Gold..hesitant and overlapping. In an isolated view Gold may seem to be in a bull market, but definitely wave C down has to come to end this correction of Gold.

That could very well coincide with a sustained Dollar rise, since they inversely correlate.              

This  chart is that of USD INR..

  Dollar bottomed out against the rupee in 2008 and since then has been on an impulsive rise.Currently it is in wave 4 of wave 3. Wave 3 seemed to have topped out somewhere in the 68.80 range and since then rupee has been appreciating.In fact it was in the week of Feb 26, coinciding with a Stock market bottom. Thereafter the rupee appreciation is coinciding with FII money coming into India.Since the 4th wave is ongoing more fund flow into emerging markets may happen.Market top next year may likely coincide with FII withdrawal as well. I would look at dates in Feb March 2017 for such an event.
Last chart is of Gold in rupee terms.. Iam re-posting this since it is easier to compare in one post,
Here the same pattern similar to International Gold may be observed. Only thing is the correction is a lot shallower...That is because we Indians love our Gold and anytime Gold falls we rush to buy.But the time cycles cannot be denied.Gold in India also has to decline maybe a little lesser than International Gold, but decline it may.
This is my gleanings of the immediate term and medium term trends in Gold, USD INR and Dollar. Of course I may be totally wrong and that would only give me more learning opportunities.
I do not trade any of these instruments. My interest is solely that of a research student.