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Thursday, October 23, 2014

October 23, 2014 Cycle Update

I have updated all hourly bars till today..
Interesting to see the hourly rising from the October 17 bottom.The elliptical path is illusory and has no relevance.Now the bars are near to the blue cycle top. So momentum should decrease and reversal may happen. 7930 is the first support followed by 7860.
On Monday, if we see a bar reversal, that is if the hourly bar closes lower than the previous  bar low, then we can safely short till the levels mentioned above.
If Nifty strengthens on 27th also or is  flat, then the next bottom should be expected around 7860 levels.If 7860 does not hold then it is back to 7720  levels.Expected date of this bottom is around November 03, 2014.
Since Nifty has gapped out of the downward blue trend line, it is highly unlikely that 7720 will be broken.
Si if we see a bottom in hourly the next cycle is about to begin and we can confidently buy.

Nifty Astro- Saturn`s movement into Scorpio

On November 02, 2104,Sunday,at 02:05:45 am, Saturn moves from Libra into Scorpio.He remains in Scorpio, till October 25,2017, Wednesday,03:37:53 pm.That is for a full 3 years.
Now, our interest is how could this period be for the markets?
Iam sure we are interested to know, at least how it will be for the coming quarter, right?
I just went back to see how our market performed during the last sojourn of Saturn in Scorpio. Our Nifty was not even born then and so I had looked up at Sensex.
Since Saturn takes 30 years to complete the zodiac of 12 signs, the last time he was in Scorpio, was in 1984 December, till 1987 December.
Have a look at this chart...
Saturn in Scorpio, was very positive!
He took the market from 250 odd levels,( 250, my goodness! Sensex which is at 26,787, was such a small baby then!) to 650+ and brought it down to 400+, by the time he left Scorpio.
Of course Saturn alone was not responsible for this, but he is an important member of the larger council of planets who very definitely have a say in the way the world is influenced. So we may expect Saturnian influence to prevail.
So what observations can we make?
1. Saturn in Scorpio is definitely positive for equity markets especially in the initial stages.
2. His initial retro period is not a problem.
3. But when other major planets also get involved in creating an energy vortex by their positions and by their aspects to one another, then things could get ugly.
4. When Saturn becomes stationary direct, then the trend resumes once again.
5. If the longer retrograde period of Saturn coincides with other long term planetary aspects, then major trend changes happen in the markets.

Let us look at the skies in November 2014:
Apart from a Mars Pluto conjunction, a Pluto Uranus square triggered by a Venus Uranus square,there is not enough powder keg to ignite the markets downwards.Mars Pluto conjunction is no joke, but it may not provoke a prolonged decline yet.
On December 08, 2014, Jupiter turns retrograde.First sign of trouble.
Throughout the month, Venus, Mercury and Sun trigger the Pluto Uranus axis and cause issues regarding debt, deflation and transformation to be brought to the fore front.
On January 15, 2015, we see bigger planets getting into the act.
1.Pluto Uranus axis is triggered by Ketu and Rahu,which is Uranus conjunct Ketu  opposing Rahu and square Pluto.
2. On 16th Jan Mars will square Saturn.
With Jupiter also retrograde, the scenario is fast deteriorating.

To conclude, Saturn in Scorpio ought to be positive, at least in the initial stages.
When major planets get involved in January 2015, uptrend could die rapidly.
So it appears that the markets could go up till January 2015 by which time, large planets get into action and a trend change could happen.
By August 03, 2015, Saturn becomes stationary direct once again and that could start a final upleg, which could take the markets into 2016.
1992-2000-2008-  2016--this sequence could get activated then!
This is just an empirical understanding. Let us use this information along with other technical tools to get better conviction.
This is what I had been writing in this space since the last two months.
Please give your valuable comments.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Nifty and the Eclipses- An Analysis

We had a total Lunar Eclipse on October 08, 2014 and now we have a partial Solar Eclipse on the night of October 23, 2014, ( morning of 24th in fact) between 1.08 am and 5.22 am.
Now eclipses have been coming and going and every time one comes up there is a lot of speculation as to what effect it could have on us and especially on the Financial Markets.
A Solar Eclipse occurs only when a New Moon occurs. In fact a solar eclipse is nothing but a specialized type of New Moon or Amavasya as we call it in India.
As traders our interest is in knowing what was the effect of these eclipses on Nifty in the past years.
I have simply plotted the Eclipse dates on to Nifty daily and here is what we see...


The chart is a daily from May 2012 to the present date.
Red lines indicate Solar Eclipses and Black lines indicate Lunar Eclipses.
There are some interesting observations to be made:

  1. Only in May 2012, we had a solar eclipse followed by a Lunar Eclipse.
  2. Between April 25 and May 25, 2013,we had two lunar eclipses with a Solar Eclipse in between.
  3. Rest of the cases are of lunar eclipse first followed by solar eclipse.
  4. When the Solar Eclipse comes first of the duo, market reversal happens within the time zone of the eclipses and mostly the trend continues.
  5. A triple combination as seen between April 25 and May 25 2013, definitely destabilises the market and causes an intermediate trend reversal.
  6. In cases of lunar first and solar next, during these phases, the market goes straight past the New Moon till the date of Eclipse and reverses direction only after the Solar Eclipse.
  7. In all cases where it is Lunar first followed by Solar, the trend continues in the original direction. So the eclipses act as sort of a speed breaker to the trend.This is only to be expected because Eclipses reduce the energies of the luminaries, Sun and the Moon, at least temporarily.
This eclipse is happening when Rahu is in Virgo. So I thought it would be a good idea to go back 18 years and see what happened when Rahu was in Virgo last time......
The trend in 1996 was an intermediate  (or long term?) down trend and we had a lunar followed by a solar in September and October 1996.Market continued past the Full  Moon and reversed close to the Solar Eclipse and then after forming a top after the eclipse it continued with the original downtrend.
In October 2014, also the market continued past the Full Moon of October 08 and formed a seeming reversal on October 17, 2014.It has been rising since then.
So there is every possibility that we form a top after the Solar Eclipse and decline to a bottom.
  1. And if this bottom, post the eclipse is higher than 7724, then the original bull trend continues till the year end.
  2. If the bottom post the eclipse breaks 7724, then we are going down till the year end. 
Of course, we want one answer.
Which of these has a better possibility?
For that we examine the day charts of solar eclipse day in 1996 and in 2014...

First set of charts pertain to 2014 October and below that we have the 1996 charts.
During the eclipse, Sun, Moon and Venus are literally one on top of each other in Libra.All of them are in Mars star.Mercury is afflicted by Rahu, but direction wise Rahu and Mercury are in alignment.Rahu is also in Mars star. Mars is in the star of Ketu. Malefic power is more and so a decline is round the corner.
But, but, but, both Sun and Venus had formed squares in Pluto and both of them indicated a powerful bottom. I had been writing about this for quite some time now.
This happened from  October 04 to 06 and by October 17 we were just 6 trading  days after the square. And so the powerful bottom of October 17 came to be. If so the decline indicated by the eclipses could only be able to form a higher bottom, post the eclipse.
So out of choices 1 and 2 I prefer 1.

There are some interesting correlations between 1996 and 2014. See the writing in black...


 
This also indicates that we may have an astro inversion coming up. That means post the eclipse, after a bottom, market should go up for some time to come !

This is just an empirical analysis. Please base your trades only on the basis of competent technical advice, after observing due stop losses.
Please write to me your observations.
 


Nifty Weekly Time and Price Squaring

This is interesting. Nifty has been hugging the 45 degree  upwards timeline, all this while from August 2013. Whenever there was a breach, it was a small affair, lasting some weeks, and then it was back again over the 45 line.
Same is the case now also. Nifty has strengthened above the 45 degree line

Weekly momentum has reached the oversold territory but is yet to turn up. Once it does, then Nifty will be showing strength above the 45 line.
That would mean that the uptrend continues.
Downside risk will increase if Nifty breaks 7800.

Nifty Neo Wave update October 21, 2014

If Nifty continues to move higher, then the current c leg would possibly be the ending point of an x wave.Then there may be 3 more abc legs moving upward, end of which may also end  F leg of the large diametric formation  which began in Jan 2008 .

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Nifty Hourly Cycle update October 21, 2014

Here is the hourly cycles update for Nifty for October 21, 2014...
The portions shaded in Aqua Blue are the past two days hourly bars of Nifty.
As expected we can see Nifty moving up from the blue cycle low.
We also see Nifty gapping up exactly in the fastest momentum period of the blue cycle.
This cycle is approximately 20 bars old. Since the entire blue cycle is about 80 bars, half way mark is 40 bars, which means we have another 20 bars of price rise.
However the larger 147 hour cycle ( thicker red) and the sub cycle  ( grey) of our 80 bar cycle  are about to bottom out by October 23rd or 27th.
So, from a trading point of view, any spike from here should be ignored and we should wait to buy the dips which may happen when Nifty obeys the larger hourly cycle.
Another important observation...
We go to the beginning of the red cycle and observe.
Nifty had spiked up very early in the cycle to 8031, and continuously moved down. So the red cycle was a left translated cycle.
And so we were bearish.
We can see all the sub cycles had left translation and Nifty finally came down to 7724.
Nifty had formed a bar reversal on the daily at the 7724 levels. This bar reversal happened near a cycle low. So we expect that this new cycle will not be a left translated one.For that 7858 should not be taken down on an day closing basis.
If 7858 is taken out decisively, then we conclude that Nifty is going lower and at the next rise we short. In other words, the new cycle also would turn out as a left translated one.
But nothing of that sort has happened yet.
We conclude that chances of a buying dip happening is good and that dip, if we buy, we can benefit when Nifty moves higher.
So what is our positional trade?
If long already, continue to be long but move the stops higher.
If no position, then wait for the next immediate dip to buy.
Cycles as notice are quite talkative. They do have lot more to say!


Monday, October 20, 2014

Nifty Hourly Updated view Oct 20, 2014


I have updated the hourly chart with today`s movements as well. The coloured portion is of two day movement now. We see that after the cycle bottomed out at 7724, Nifty has moved up sharply as part of the initial thrust out of a cycle. The question is "is the new cycle right translated or left?"If Nifty weakens in the first four hours in tomorrow`s trade, below 7850, then the new cycle is a right cycle and Nifty will weaken further. It could come back close to 7724 levels.On the other hand if Nifty strengthens beyond 7900, then we are on a left translated cycle and we may buy.In such a case, Nifty could go to 7960 initially.