Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Mid Week Review April 20 to 24, 2015

Nifty opened the week on Monday, April 20 at 8619 and immediately started falling.Till it reached 8286 today before a short covering counter move pushed Nifty to close at  8430.This forms a hammer head pattern on the daily candle and that is a positive. This means that the down move gets slowed down a little for the time being.
Astro aspects look interesting....
 Four out of six aspects point to a trough formation between 22 to 27 of April 2015.Most important ones are Jupiter direct and Pluto retrograde. Both may cause a reversal which could gain considerable strength later on.

Hourly price movement has spiked downwards through the Lower BB. Generally this leads to a reversal, when confirmed by other indicators.Momentum shows positive divergence which has manifested as upward price movement.

Clearly more follow up buying is required on the daily scale.

Nifty has slipped out of the Central 45 degree line and moving down along the red arc.Down move is also as per 45 degree lines. 45 degree parallel, below the main line offers support.Previous behaviors at red arcs have been highlighted.An energy jump is now required.
So we have covered our shorts today and are long in a tentative fashion...

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Reliance Industries- Astro Technicals

Reliance has been like Kumbhakarna..Sleeping off for a long while and now all awake. Recent results were spectacular and there is renewed interest in the stock now.
Let us look a little more closely.

Lagna Lord Jupiter in the 11th and second lord Saturn in second house itself. 9th lord Mercury is in the 11th. Powerful combinations indeed. Reliance is a natural wealth attractor.
Reliance is currently experiencing Rahu Dasa Sun Sub period.Sun is the significator of 2 and 11, two houses linked with wealth. This period shall be till December 25, 2015.So it is clear that Reliance will greatly increase in value this year.
Reliance should take off once Saturn  becomes direct in the 11th house. This will coincide with Rahu entering Sun star later in the year. That will be a very fortunate period for Reliance.
Reliance is now an attractive investment stock for the medium term.
Looking at Technicals..
     We see that the long term chart is turning bullish. A buy signal on the monthly momentum chart is not to be taken lightly.Waves wise, also Reliance is experiencing a break out out of the constricted triangle which had been persisting   since 2009.
Weekly also is uniformly bullish..
Weekly chart is projecting a target of 1050.
Since the Daily chart is stretched, we may expect correction in the early part of this week and thereafter when Reliance starts moving positively, it  could be bought for handsome returns in the medium term.
 Hourly has to turn positive in its momentum,before new buying could be done.Long positions may be liquidated now and re entered late this week or early next week for big moves later on.
All in all, Reliance is now poised to help us make money in the market!

Nifty Astro Technicals April 20 to 24, 2015

By Wednesday, April 15, last week, the correction which we were expecting had finally manifested. I hope the readers of this blog, had benefitted from the 9 day uptrend and have gone short after their trailing stop losses were taken out. We should now be comfortably short in Nifty.
Let us examine what is in store for Nifty in the coming week...
We shall examine some Momentum and Gann angle charts and then see how the astro indicators look like.
Let us start from the Weekly and go into smaller time frames.

We see a pronounced hidden divergence on the weekly chart, pointing out to a bottom formation sometime midweek or early the week after next.( April 27 onwards).
Gann angles point out two possibilities with equal probability
Coming to Daily charts,
Daily indicates that we could see a  possible support at approx 8555, and then an upmove.We also see a dateline for the upmove or down move to get completed.
We see a different kind of divergence in operation, in daily chart and its momentum.This suggests that the down move may continue for  some  more days and then Nifty may turn up.`

We look at the hourly charts...

Here we see the 45 degree upward parallel line has been clearly breached.Two levels of supports are shown as 8569 and 8500.

Here again we see positive divergence, but a mild one. So some more downside is expected before an upturn. Time limit..two to three days.

To recap, Continuing downside followed by a neutral weekly closing is a strong possibility. Powerful trough maybe anticipated closer to settlement.Chances of slippage to 8100 levels are also present.
Let us look at Neo waves and cycles for more confirmation..
  From 7724, which was the 2nd x point of complex correction, we are into the final diametric formation. We have completed waves, a,b, c and d. Currently we are in wave e.After wave e upwards, we will have wave f down and final wave g up, which will form a significant top.
We had initially assumed the down move from 9119 to 8269 as wave a of wave d. However, the subsequent upmove from 8269 to 8845 was more than 61.8% of the move from 9119 to 8269.
9119-8269 = 850
8845-8269 = 576
(576/850)*100 = 67.76%
This means the upmove from 8269 to 8845 so far can only be the next wave segment, that is wave e.
Shape of the diametric is that of a diamond and I have traced it through orange connector lines.The deduction from the shape is that wave e finally will be smaller than wave c in size. That means wave e may top out in the 9000 regions or thereabouts.In fact 80% level of wave c from 8269 comes to 8974.
In a diametric,wave d sometimes is the smallest wave. Oftentimes volatility increases in the remaining waves e,f and g.More so if it is closer to forming a significant top.
Coming back to wave e, then the current down move is wave b of d.50% of wave a of e is 8557 levels.Holding this level, wave c of e may open upwards.
Looking at the cycles, numbers 1,2,3 and 4 indicate half cycles of the inner blue cycle.We can see that the tops of cycles 1,2 and 3 corresponded to tops in Nifty.And the half cycles coincided with falls in Nifty.
However, the picture has changed for cycle 4.Here we find that the TOP OF CYCLE 4 IS COINCIDING WITH A BOTTOM IN NIFTY.This phenomenon of a cycle top coinciding with a market bottom or cycle bottom coinciding with a market top, is called inversion.Possibly this is caused because the blue cycle and the longer red cycle are falling apart in their rhythms. Also other invisible cycles are influencing the formation.
If so, when the blue cycle falls, we may expect Nifty to move up! Only after the current down move loses momentum.And a top could form in the vicinity of May 11th to 14th.
Looking at astro formations,
Negatives rule the roost.
Jupiter direct tends to trigger a market reaction first before it fires away. We are in the beginning of a market reaction.Just three days into it.
Venus Saturn opposition is also negative. This should take hold next week.
Pluto Retrograde is another negative formation. It should manifest negativity next week.
Any recovery seen next week should be used to sell.
Putting everything together,
1. The short term trend is down.
2.Next week could see two way movements.
3. Any rise maybe used to sell. Having said  Market could come down some more before a sustained upmove begins.
4. Expect a bottom late next week, but do not anticipate and place orders.
5. Negativity could spill over into the week after next,before a sustainable bottom is formed.
6. We see divergences, but the price should move in our direction before positions can be taken positively.
7. Trailing stop losses are a must, because volatility could increase from here on.

Happy Trading!

Friday, April 17, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals April 16 2015

Broken out of the uptrending channel,and forming a complex abc x abc pattern.Maximum downside is upto 8550. But it could turn before that...
Because of the weekly ..

Weekly trend has turned up. Tomorrow is the weekly closing. So be cautious on shorts. Trend could assert itself tomorrow and show more weakness next week.Trade with stoplosses.
Coming back to the hourly, we see that Nifty has been moving along a 45 deg parallel line. Since it has broken the first line, it could move to the next.If this breaks then the next support is 8554, the green arcs.The overhead resistance is 8845.
Since we have the New Moon on April 19th, and since the Green Period starts soon, it is best to cover shorts on any sudden weakness.
In a nutshell, follow the shorts with a trailing stop loss,and go long once the stops are taken out.
Since the recent uptrend had crossed more than 61.8% of the down move from 9119, we consider the uptrend as wave e. We are currently in wave b of e. Which means there is one more upmove after the current down move.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals April 13 to 17 Brief Outlook

Since I have limited access to any online stuff, Iam just posting three charts for analysis..Detailed post shall be done later this week..

Time after Lunar Eclipse : 5 trading days
Jupiter Direct:2 days
Sun Conj Mercury:0 days
We are still in the reversal zone.
Sun Jupiter trine had occurred 4 trading days ago. So, still in reversal zone. So a medium term top may occur.Uranus element could cause more volatility.
Sun and Mars in Aries will cause aggressive buying and selling.

Nifty is moving in the parallel 45 degree price channels.Weekly has moved up strongly.We can see some more space to move.So Nifty is bullish in weekly situaton.

We see several time lines converging on the top.Daily is on the red arc. It takes energy to jump the arc. Daily suggests a correction at least intra week...
So the 4 day week is expected to be interesting.
op in place.No change in long positions till short term trend reverses on the hour charts.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Nifty Hourly- Angular Relations April 08 2015

Next 2 to 3 days should provide an answer!

 I have added a daily chart for more clarity.

Monday, April 6, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals April 06 to 10, 2015

Last Month, after a long time, we saw an engulfing bear candle on the monthly. March month high of 9119 was higher than February high of 8941.
March low of 8269 was lower than February low of 8471.
March close of 8491 was much lower than February close of 8902.
This has bearish implications this month. We may reasonably expect March low of 8269 to be broken sometime during the month. Every such dip is to be bought for investments, because the underlying bullish trend is still intact, for the longer term.

Weekly has formed an inside bar, where the low is higher than previous week`s low but the high is lower than previous week`s high. So the reversal is not complete yet. So the uptrend we see is only a counter trend which needs to be monitored for downward reversal again. See the circled portions in the chart, including those in the Stochastics.

Daily chart is the one which connects us with our trading.
Here we see higher high and higher low formation. We also see that the daily has broken out of the complex correction channel. So most of us would have been stopped out and must be long now. Daily suggests that a counter trend is on its way and we need to be in on it as longs. However unless Nifty crosses 80% of the down move, ( 8947) we consider the short term downtrend to be intact. Likely levels to watch out are 8686  ( 50%) and 8792 ( 61.8%).

So what is our expectation for Nifty in the coming week?

We look at some daily charts including cycles and Neo waves.....

 As per Neowave, we had concluded that we are in Wave d of the diametric formation from wave 2nd x of 7724.Since all legs of a diametric have some sort of time equality. and since waves a,b and c ( of the current diametric) have all been 28 to 34 days so far, we expect this wave d also to be of similar duration. Wave d has completed 19 days so far..Minimum of 28 days means April 17 or thereabouts should see the completion of wave d. Since wave d has been going lower, this means that there is some more downside for Nifty. This also means that the current uptrend is a correction to the downmove from March 04.In other words, that is wave b of d and we may expect one more wave c of d downwards, after this b gets completed. As indicated earlier we watch out for 8686 and 8792 as indicative secondary tops.
Coming to cycles, we have been indicating that for the shorter blue cycle, April 06 or a couple of days after could be the cycle top.We had also mentioned that the blue cycle is currently undergoing an inversion, which means when the cycle tops out Nifty makes a bottom. That has now been accomplished. The amplitude of the bigger red cycle is stronger to the downside and so the cycles suggest that there is some more weakness left in Nifty.
Note how the Neo Waves and the cycles perfectly correlate.  One additional information given by our blue cycle is that May 11th or 12th could see an important bottom. This we have to wait and see.

What about astro? strictly speaking for the next week`s trade, we have clear indications from Technicals itself and there is no pressing need to look into astro. But then we love to see those also don`t we?
Before we go into astro formations, let us just look at an interesting Gann angle chart..
 I have shaded a portion of the chart and this portion is enclosed within two Gann lines, 1x1 upper line and 2x1, lower line.We see that Nifty slipped out of the 1x1 angle line and if we observe closely it had slipped out of a parallel angle line to the 1x1 line. One of the Cardinal Principles of the Great Master is that time and price must square out. Which means Nifty should reach the 1x2 line sometime in the future before a big uptrend begins again. Nifty will achieve this either in a quick down move, or may move sideways spending time and reach the 1X2 timeline. ( Gann angles are more of timelines and not trend lines.) Remember, when we were discussing Neowave, we had understood that we are in a diametric and we are now in wave d? That means we have wave e up,wave f down and finally wave g up.Those up and down movements should take Nifty to 1x2 angle line.A possible square out timeline of the move from 7724 is shown as violet lines. Let us rememeber that the violet line does not indicate that Nifty would reach there, It is just a turning point in future, which needs to be closely watched.
What about the vertical blue bands?
I have enlarged them here...
    They are planet dates.
1.April 04, is the lunar eclipse + Blood Moon
2.April 08 is Jupiter turning direct
3.April 10 is Mercury conjunct Sun
4.April 15 is Venus trine Saturn
5.April 16 is Pluto Retrograde.
Out of the 5 aspects, other than Mercury conjunct Sun all others are negative.
So astro expectations are that from April 08, till April 17 at least, we may see a down trend.
Now see how all parameters are agreeing, Technicals, Neo wave, Cycles and Astro.
So we be long till we are stopped out. This can possibly happen by April 08. Then if AND ONLY IF Nifty turns down, breaks a previous low on the hourly, we go short..
So, happy and profitable trading once more!