Friday, January 23, 2015

Nifty Technicals update Jan 23 2015

Currently c wave is on and is confirmed by new all time high. Targets are projected by arrows. Jan 23 happens to be the 23 day cycle culmination. We have seen inversions ( instead of a low, a high is formed) with 23 day cycles in the past. Instances are circled.
Question is will an inversion happen now?
Chances are we may have a displaced inversion next week. This means the current up leg is maturing fast and the risk reward ratio is not in favour of longs anymore. Most of the anticipated news are  out.
Also every time an inversion happens, then the next cycle will see a low.
Since we are in c wave, that low could be a higher low, of course.
Last 46 day cycle was right translated as shown in the yellow high light. We had mentioned a month ago that the next cycle could be bullish. And so it is.
c way has another 25 days to go. Likely time equality is Feb 27, which coincides with a 46 cycle culmination.
b wave was a limiting horizontal triangle, for which 61.8% ration of break out is important. Those levels are indicated. Rest analysis by weekend.
Net sum up: Buy on dips.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Astro Technicals Update 20 Jan 2015

Here is an updated chart of what I had posted last Sunday. The key thing is the Gann arc. I think it will hold. See the arc, 8700 line, 8700 bar chart and the red angle line.
What if Nifty crosses 8731 and appreciates much further. Then my counts were wrong and Nifty is already in C of Xabc.
But, I need more confirmation for this. Else, I still favour a c of b down, however small.
Super New Moon, Mercury retro are all approaching in the next two days...
So be cautious. Do not get carried away. Let fortune favour the brave. We prefer safety first!

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Nifty Astro view point Jan 19 to 23, 2015

Here is a snapshot of the astro charts for Nifty, Jan 16 to 23, 2015...

Last week I had mentioned about some heavy afflictions going on..Let us discuss them here and their likely impact.
Chart on the left is of January 16, and it shows, Pluto square Rahu and Ketu.Saturn, uncomfortable in Scorpio, squaring  uncomfortable Mars in Aquarius.
What did we have in the last week?Surprising events. RBI reducing rates and Swiss Franc going off the peg in which it was placed, against the Euro.Both are trend changers with far reaching effects.Off the markets, terrorism hysteria is at a new peak. Entire Europe is in a ferment. Terror alerts of the highest order have been announced by European Nations.More than 5000 trained terrorists with a European face seem to have quietly slipped into various parts of Europe.Volatility has been on the increase in several markets. Intermarket divergences are also observed.
Chart in the middle is of January 19, 2015.It shows the tight square formation of the Nodes continuing and Moon approaching Pluto. Moon is often times a catalyst.Venus and Mercury have begun separating, which is an indication of distribution taking place.  Venus begins its opposition with Jupiter.And January 20 is a New Moon day.Chief luminary Sun hates being in Saturn`s house.Mars is about to conjunct Neptune. Mars is fiery energy forward and Neptune is all fog and  liquid, without any shape, full of vagueness.Martian energy is seen to become dissipated.Additionally Mars moves into Rahu star, who herself is all feminine and liquid being in Moon star.  From hereon the Ascendant also is Aquarius and not Capricorn.Aquarius happens to be the eighth house of Nifty futures chart.
Chart in the right is of 23rd January, 2015, 3.30 pm. Mercury has become retrograde and has started approaching Sun.There are 5 planets in Aquarius, Venus, Neptune, Mars,Moon and Chiron and all are getting various degrees of aspects from Saturn.Additionally Ketu is about to conjunct Uranus. So volatility will increase again.Rahu and Ketu continue to be in square aspect with Rahu. So debt issues, currency issues, QE, terrorism, panic, hysteria...all these themes will continue to be in the forefront
How do Rahu and Ketu affect markets, when they are in aspects?
Let us see some charts, which are self explanatory...

We find that in all major turning points, Rahu and Ketu were involved in aspects. Mostly when trines were there, we had long term falls. Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall. The effect of Saturn square Mars and Venus opposite Jupiter also is the same. To top it, we have three Lunar phenomena this week, including a New Moon. So astro suggests that there is a scope for a  fall and bottom formation. The question is whether Jan 23 is the low or will there be further downsides because of Ketu Uranus conjunction, opposed by Rahu?
That we will have to wait and see....
Last week on Thursday, January 15th, on Makara Sankranti, Raghuram Rajan gave a pleasant surprise to the markets with an unexpected rate cut. Was it destined in the charts?
Let us analyse....
On 15th January 2015, Moon was in Visakha, in Jupiter star.So Jupiter effects were to be felt for the day. Since Jupiter was retrograde, opposite effects also could occur, depending on other aspects.What sort of effects could Jupiter give? It has to be a combination of Jupiterean and Mercury effects because Jupiter was in Mercury star. But then there were others also in Mercury star...namely Ketu and Uranus.  Both Ketu and Uranus are known for sudden effect. Uranus is known for shocking and surprising   effect. So we had a banking effect ( Jupiter) communicated ( Mercury) in a surprising manner ( Uranus and Ketu).That Moon was in aspect with Mercury manifested the event.

To summarize, planets are indicating that markets world over will continue to roil for some more time. More fluctuations and surprises are in store in currency markets. And stocks could react lower despite the bullish momentum seen. It is also possible that the markets could go lower than on January 23, 2015. But since Mercury is retro, maybe we could also see a bounce after January 27, 2015.

Having said all this, please note that Iam only student and these observations are meant for educative purposes. Please have adequate stop losses and risk management in place for all your trades.

Happy trading to all!

Nifty-Technicals January 19 to 23, 2015

January 12 to 16 was a roller coaster, with a totally surprising Reserve Bank announcement of a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates on Thursday and signaled it could cut further, amid signs of cooling inflation, provided the government continues to take steps to contain the fiscal deficit.
This was our observation last week...

“Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....
So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the weekend. Next week maybe we have another low (double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.  "

As expected, from a high of 8356, during the week Nifty formed a low of 8237 on January 14th and within the next two days reversed powerfully to hit a high of 8527 the very next day before closing the week on Jan 16, on 8514...A remarkable turn of events indeed.
So what is in store for this week?

Let us look at the technical picture first….
Nothing has changed as far as the wave counts are concerned. The sudden spurt last week has simply made wave b of b a little longer.Also the horizontal triangle expectation now does not exist..On the other hand, inside wave b we see an expanding triangle formation.We still continue to expect wave b of b to top out and commence c of b downwards..
Let us look at this daily chart a little more closely...

We see that wave a from 7724 to 8627 took 31 days.Wave b from 8627 downwards has so far also consumed 31 days and we still have the last  leg downwards, ongoing,...wave c of b.
Wave c of b has begun from 8446 down. This a leg was quite violent and from 8065, b leg has opened upwards. It has so far consumed 466 points and has reached up to 8531.While wave a, ( 8446 down) was a 3 day affair, wave b has so far taken, 7 days, with maximum movement in the last two days.( actually one day, on Thursday). So technically, wave b has taken more than twice the amount of time as wave a and so it quite mature, may be ready to top.This entire abc formation is taking the shape of a flat with a normal b wave so far.Upto 123.6% of wave a is considered normal for wave b.
So wave c of c of b should begin down sometime this week.
Only after that, do we expect wave c of xabc to open upwards. 

Looking at the momentum charts,

All the momentum charts are showing an uptick, which means there is some more upside left before a turn down.However the weekly momentum chart is hinting the possibility of a fractal repeating itself. Momentum ticks are also close to the respective red bands...

Drawing Gann lines and arcs on the medium term chart of Nifty, we cautiously expect that Nifty may face a down cycle immediately, followed by a volatile cycle with positive bias and a clear green trend  from end of March 2015.
To sum up, our technical outlook for the week is that Nifty may go up some more, but top out sometime early this week and seek lower levels. We may book profits if and only if we see three continuous down ticks on the hourly charts.
Happy trading !

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Astro Technicals-Larsen and Toubro

LT ia a prestigious stock, and I have fond memories of this one. This was one of my earliest winners, way back in 1991/2.One of our friends has been asking about this stock and so let us see how this one looks like now.
LT peaked with Nifty, in 2008, fell with Nifty to March 2009, then rose with Nifty to November 2010,and then fell again to December 2011.From 2012, they parted ways. LT fell lower than 2011 low, shown as C in the chart whereas Nifty was much higher than its own C of 2011.This has got everything to do with the Infrastructure pack itself losing favour with the market. LT was one of the better performing ones,   
Technically, LT is in the last wave of the diametric which had started from 2008 Jan.Wave G is slated to bottom out this 2015 and a new bull run to start.
That is when we should hop on to this band wagon, because Infrastructure could be in favour in 2016.
We get a better picture with the weekly chart.We expect wave b to drop down some more and then wave c of b to start up. When that completes, wave b would be complete and then wave c down should start in an abc fashion. When wave c completes, entire wave G also would be complete.
So the first move medium term could be down.
Daily also gives a similar picture. Maximum downside could be by 1350. That could be a good long term buy. LT also is a good medium term trade because it shows legs on both side.. up and down.

Aquarius is the 8th house for LT. First  Mars, then Venus, Sun and finally Mercury will pass through Aquarius in the next 2 to 3 months. That is a time of test for the stock.From March to August it is Jupiter and that is when this stock will start to accelerate.
We shall periodically review this stock. It is a good one to own, because of powerful planets in the 11th and 2nd houses. 

Nifty Astro Technicals January 12 to 16, 2015

Let us begin this week`s views by looking up at the skies first. What is seen is not a pretty picture. The skies are dark and foreboding..

The week begins with a square of Pluto in Sagittarius with Rahu in Virgo and Ketu in Pisces.Already we have seen the destabilising effects of this aspect-The French shoot out and the resultant uproar..Western leaders are gathering in Paris and an estimated 1 million people are about to gather to express solidarity with the people who were killed by the terrorists. Already the event is assuming great importance in the annals of terrorism in the world. The reaction seems to me to be far greater than the event itself. French Police are on maximum alert. Do they know something which we do not know?
Being slow moving planets, Pluto, Rahu, and Ketu  will continue to be in aspects for a while. Even more ominous is that Uranus will join them by January 21. Already volatility is at a high in major markets of the world.
Venus and Mercury have been travelling together for a month now and from the weekend, Mercury will slow down in preparation for his retro movement from January 22 onwards and Venus will pull away. They tend to hold the market together when they are together and when they separate, financial markets tend to react.
Later on January 12th, Saturn ( as if we wanted this guy also activated!) in Scorpio begins to square Mars in Aquarius. The same day Mars will trigger the Blood Moon point of October.Aggression put down by cold, strict disapproval!  And Mars will react. This tends to pull down the markets and by the time Moon meets Mars on January 24, mostly before that a trough is likely to form.
By January 19th, Mars meets Neptune in Aquarius and all kinds of rumours will begin to float around and take a toll on volatility.
Rahu Venus Jupiter periods tend to give the market a lift up. But with a Venusian tail additionally and with Venus in Moon, I think the upmove may lose steam fast.
To sum up astro is indicating that because of these heavy aspects Nifty may come down till January 14th, and improve in the last two days.However, more negativity seems to be in store next week as well.

Technically, we look at the overall wave counts...
 Nifty has broken below the trendline connecting the two Xs.Wave b of b seems to have been completed and we are in wave c of b.This has one more downleg if b is a zigzag.
There is one more possibility...

We may also have a horizontal contracting triangle forming in wave b. If so the current upmove from 8065 is wave d and it may not reach 8446. Then we may see wave e downwards, going into the apex. Volatility has to considerably reduce for such a triangle to form.
Looking at the astro picture, Iam a little doubtful whether the triangle formation will continue. Alternate is the first option, where wave b of c terminates at the current closing of 8285 and wave c of c begins down on Monday, violating 8065..
Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....

So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the week end. Next week maybe we have another low ( double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.
Current aspects are personally bothersome as well. Please keep your cool, drive safely and above all, operate only with stop losses.
A wonderful Pongal and Makara Sankranti wishes to all my dear friends!