Pages

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 23 to 27, 2015



We had quite an action packed week..

From a bottom of 8612 Nifty moved up to 8788 and turned down once again to close at a weak 8571 on March 20. As can be seen, with the formation of lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart, Nifty`s trend has turned down.

Actually, on every positive news, Nifty has encountered fresh selling.
Looking at Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic Momentum Indicators on the daily chart,




We see that Nifty has reached the lower BB and is poised for a break lower. Such a break is a positive indication of the counter trend beginning, upwards. Stochastic Indicator is also showing signs of bottoming and the next upward movement may soon begin.
Looking at the weekly picture of the same indicators,




We see that the negative divergence which was persisting for the past 14 weeks has at last manifested as downward price movements, from March 04, 2015.Since the previous week`s candle shows a shooting star formation, we may expect Nifty to spike down this week and form a bottom.

This means any rise from 8571 levels in the early part of next week, is only temporary and Nifty could again go down to fresh lows. How low could it go?


Looking at the hourly chart, using Gann angles on a Gunner system,



We find that the angle low comes to 8470. This also is the bottom formed by Nifty on February 10, 2015.Resistance levels seem to be 8790.Nifty has been sliding down the 45 degree angle after regaining it from the 66 degree angle. (2X1).
If Nifty moves up on Monday, then this chart suggests that 8650 could be the immediate resistance.
If it continues to weaken, 8470 is to be marked for a reversal.
What does our leading indicator say? In case you are wondering what it is, it is astro of course!
Let us recap:

Conjunctions of Venus with Ketu on March 01 and conjunction of Mars with Ketu on Mars , led to a crest formation on Mars 04.
Saturn retrograde on March 14 accentuated the negativity.
Uranus Pluto square of March 17 reduced the positivity in the market. So post this square, market continued to fall.
March 17th was also the final date for Uranus Jupiter trine-second passage.
Solar eclipse of March 20, involving Ketu with the luminaries, Sun and Moon deepened the negativity.
Net, net Nifty has moved down from 9119 to 8533, a depletion of 566 points.
So what is there this week?
a.    March 20 was also a Super Moon. Moon was in Perigee and also was a New Moon. So this week we may see positive movement to start with.
b.     Let us examine this Jupiter Uranus trine a little more. There seems to be a post formation implication..


We had the first passage in September- October 2014.7 days before the passage start date, Nifty had made a top, and fell into the passage date. Uranus was retrograde and Jupiter was direct then. After the passage, Nifty fell into a bottom exactly seven days after. Refer the chart above.
Coming to the second passage, Nifty formed a bottom, seven day before the passage date, and rose into the passage. Here Uranus is direct and Jupiter is retrograde.
So it goes to expect that Nifty will rise to form a top seven days after the passage date? If so March26/27 could see a top.( Now, let us not think it is going to be an all-time top. It is most probably an intermediate top, given the negativity of other planetary formation.
c.  Mars ingresses into Aries on March 24th. Normally this is a bullish signature, but with Jupiter in Cancer, we could see some more negativity.
         See the chart above. With Mars in Aries and Jupiter in Cancer, after a brief up move the market tanked down to a new bottom and later rose upwards.


          

 In 1990, when Mars was in Aries, Jupiter was in Gemini. Sensex moved up. Later on when Jupiter moved into Cancer, there was a down move and then recovery. Now Jupiter is retrograde and has lost considerable speed, in readiness to become direct on April 08, 2015.So the down move may not be deep, but expected to be shallow.
This  last graph  of Mars ingress is from 2013. Nifty exploded up when Mars entered Aries, but Jupiter was in Taurus.

           

d. Sun waxing trine Saturn, Venus square Jupiter and Venus trine Pluto are all pointing to a bottom by April 01 or thereabouts.

e.Lastly we examine the eclipse and Ketu`s role a little closely.

      

In 1997, we had a Solar eclipse involving Ketu. Solar eclipse happens when Ketu is at a distance, usually 8 to 9 degrees.. Moon passes over the Sun in a New Moon formation. Then at a later date, Sun conjuncts Ketu. So we have two negative formations, Solar eclipse and then the date when Sun conjuncts Ketu. Nifty reacted negatively for the eclipse, then consolidated and fell again when Sun conjuncted Ketu.
Fast forwarding to 2015, we had a similar solar eclipse on March 20.And Sun will conjunct Ketu on March 30, 2015, Monday. So we may expect a negative move on March 30.
So our astro indicators are saying that immediately the Market may move up for a couple of days, but may react down once again and form another low in the first week of April, 2015.
Here is the updated cycles chart..
  

Last week we expected a down move till 8532. Nifty had come down upto 8553.
Neowave wise there are two possibilities coming up.

1. We are in the last leg of the complex correction. After 2nd x we are possibly in another diametric formation. Remember, diametric formations are quite common with Nifty. (One thing is certain. None of these major waves are impulsive. Probably at hourly levels we may see impulses, but not at daily or weekly levels.) Waves denoted in thick black alphabets denote the wave legs. Currently we are in wave d as per this count. 11 days have passed in wave d. So one more counter up move followed by a down move could end wave d. I prefer this count at the moment, because in diametric formation time equality is quite important.

2. The counts followed previously are shown in blue. According to this count, only one more up leg is pending. After which Nifty should correct substantially. The trouble is I do not see major astro formations yet to support this.

So let us go with counts enumerated in option 1 for the time being. Cyclically it looks like we are in for an inversion in the period April 06 to May 11.Let us cross that bridge when we come to it.

One word of caution. I keep receiving mails from people stating that they had assumed market positions anticipating a turn sometimes indicated in these posts.

To the young and less experienced, let me emphasize, that is a wrong strategy to follow.

1.Stay with the trend.
2.It is down now, be short.
3.It has been down for 11 trading days, so keep your stop losses very tight.
4.When a counter move starts in the hourly, wait for at least 3 higher bottoms before taking a long position.
5.If Nifty takes out the previous high, increase your long bets.
6.If Nifty turns down forming another lower top, go short again always with stop losses.
7.Rest all which is discussed here is for entertainment, and deeper understanding of the market.
8.Let me reiterate, price action alone is the reality. Rest all are mere assumptions.

Have a wonderful week of trading ahead!

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Hourly trend comes to an end?


Uptrend which began on December 10, 2015, ( just after Jupiter turned retrograde). Inward bending and outward bending arcs in the vicinity of  7963, dec 10,have both attained completion today.The Green Bowl calculates the  pending uptrend target to be just short of  9000.And this could happen before April 14th,
So we have just started a new trend as of today. Let us watch the progress of Nifty along the blue cycle...

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 09 to 13, 2015

After taking positive cues from the budget markets moved up for two days, March 02 and 03.A surprise rate cut announcement by RBI pushed Nifty to an all-time high of 9119 and thereafter a severe profit booking session pulled Nifty down to close at 8923 points, on March 04. A sedate recovery saw Nifty end the week at 8938.
Overall for the week, Nifty moved up from 8845 to 8938 and formed a Northern Doji. This is a neutral candle stick pattern with price likely to move in both directions.
There are several inter market divergences. US moved down, whereas Dax soared in a strong uptrend. FTSE moved lower. Nikkei moved up for the week, whereas Hang Seng crashed heavily. So we see the markets are tossed and turned around with no clear world trend seen.

With absence of cues here, let us look at our Astro Indicators.
We see we are right in the middle of a geocosmic storm with several planetary energies at cross purposes to one another.
As mentioned last week, we are in the middle of Uranus Jupiter trine effect of which ends on March 17 2015.
Saturn is about to turn retrograde on March 14th (market effect on March 16th).This is a significant cosmic event.
The final Uranus Pluto square is on March 17th.This is another significant cosmic event with tremendous change potential affecting all of the world.
All the above are slow moving long term planets.
In between we have the fast moving planets engaging these slow guys causing additional turmoil.
From February 22 onwards,
Venus and Mars one after the other have trined Saturn. Sun will do so on March 25th. But that will be to a retrograde Saturn.
Venus and Mars have both formed conjunctions to Ketu and opposition to Rahu.
Sun will do so on March 30, 2015. In between Moon will join Sun and both will oppose Rahu. This is what we call Solar Eclipse and will happen on March 20, 2015.
On March 04, Venus was trine with Jupiter
On March 10th, Mars will trine Jupiter.
Sun will trine Jupiter on April 2nd.
On March 05, Venus was conjunct Uranus and square Pluto
On March 11,Mars will be conjunct Uranus and square Pluto
On April 06 Sun will square Pluto and on April 07th, Sun will conjunct Uranus.
In a nutshell, slow moving planets are in aspects to one another. Fast moving planets are also engaging the slow moving planets, in conjunctions, trines, and squares.
Now, let us decipher the market action with respect to these aspects.
1.     Uranus Pluto squares


We see that the market moves up towards the Uranus Pluto square. Only time it peaked earlier than the exact date, was in December 2014. That is possibly because Jupiter turned retrograde on December 08, 2014, at least a week earlier to Uranus Pluto square date. This time we have Saturn turning retrograde two days before the exact date of Uranus Pluto square date.So overall we may expect this positivity to stay till March 16th.
2.     Saturn Retrograde 
Saturn retrograde is a time when all actions done during the Saturn direct cycle is brought up for close examination and Karmic judgments passed. Saturn has karakatwa for Karma. He is the Great Disciplinarian and the Judge. Entire QE program will come up for Judgment. So will the past actions of our Government, with respect to the Budget and other reforms. Retrograde beginnings have mostly been trend changers.


Looking at Saturn retrograde stations in Scorpio, on last two occasions, in 1986 and in 1956, we see that Saturn retrograde, acts a a reversal point for the trend in force till that point of time.So possibly the trend would reverse downwards, after Saturn retrograde starts, on March 14, 2015.  
3.     Uranus Jupiter waxing trines


This is another important aspect which tends to form crests whenever it connects in multiple passages. This means that another crest formation is due from this aspect possibly close to March 12-16, 2015.
Here I have not shown the third passage of Uranus Jupiter trine which takes place from June 08, 2015 to July 04, 2015, with exact trine on June 22, 2015.In the first passage we see the market rising to a crest and then going down from September 23 to October 17th.In the second passage also the market has risen to a crest so far..Normally it would have to go down, but there are larger positive aspects down the line, such as Uranus Pluto square on March 17th, so will the market make another attempt to a high again? This is the expectation we have as of today.
Let us look at something else also...

Mars and Venus are in Pisces and forming several aspects among themselves and with other planets. Venus is exalted in 27 degree of Pisces in Revathi star.On Monday, March 09th she will be in 26 degrees and only on March 10, will she reach 27 degrees. Trend changes generally when Venus moves out of Pisces. Usually she cause a downfall in Pisces and markets recover when she moves to Aries. But the situation is reverse when she is retrograde or when larger planets take over the trend as is the case now. Moreover Mars moves to Revathi from Monday and Mercury is in Mars star as well. In other words there is parivarthana between Mars and Mercury.Such a Mars is in trine with Jupiter.  So it looks like some more uptrend is pending before things turn down decisively.
To sum up, as per Astro, this week may be neutral to positive, but very definitely storm clouds are gathering by the weekend.

Looking at the cycles,
  

  Nifty continues to move up towards the cycle top of March 12/ 13. There could be heavy volatility this week with huge intra day opportunities. 
From Neo wave perspective, there are two possibilities. 
1. Wave c of c is a diametric, with wave e over at 9119 and currently forming wave f. If so there is one more upleg pending as wave g. That should conclude wave c and it will also conclude abc after 2nd x.
2. Second possibility:Wave c of c is forming an extracting triangle, with currently d leg on. Again one more upleg as e leg is pending.
Of course, if Nifty weakens heavily from here, then we have to conclude that wave c has already topped at 9119 and the downleg has begun already. This seems to be a remote possibility as of now.
Personally my take is to avoid fresh buying. Continue with the existing longs with tight stoplosses and look at the market afresh after March 16/17th.
Best of luck to your trading!

Monday, March 2, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals March 02 to 06, 2015

Quite an eventful week came to an end. What with the budgets and the settlement all coming together, it was a roller coaster ride indeed!
But it looks as if the volatility has only just begun..There are several astro formations which indicate a period of disquiet has just begun.
First let us look at a larger picture of the wave counts...
   What looks like an interesting possibility right now is that the huge triangle formed as a correction from 2008 top and which ended on August 28, 2013, could itself by a large A leg. The complex correction which had begun since then and which is in its final leg right now, could be the first leg  of a larger B Wave.If so then the correction which began in 2008 Jan could end only in 2020!
Ok. That is too far out and so let us come back to the present scenario. Our wave counts say that the current upleg is either wave g or wave c of c and it could go on to form all time highs.
Faster reversal of the last upleg and break of the bdf line should serve as a notice that the trend has reversed.
A look at the cycles..
    We had expected a volatile yet positive week and that  is what happened.Current wave c has achieved time equality with wave a..we now look for price equality.
Meanwhile the smaller blue cycle has bottomed out. Now both cycles have a positive bias, till March 12/13.
We expect the current uptrend to continue.
Now, a look at the astro formations...
 Some 14 different aspects are jam packed into the period from February 12 to March 31.Three major aspects stand out. Uranus Jupiter trine of March 03,Saturn retrograde on March 16th and final square of Uranus Pluto combination on March 17th.All markets could see reversals. Equities look to blow up higher and face a severe reversal in the second half of the month. The only saving grace is that Pisces and its occupants, Ketu, Uranus, Venus and Mars are getting a trinal benefic aspect from Jupiter.So issues may be ultimately resolved, but there could be turmoil before the relief.
Net effect, Neowave and the cycles indicate a positive upmove but astro formation are advising caution in the second half of this March 2015 month.
Be careful with your positions. Roller coaster is not over yet.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Nifty Dasa Analysis February 24, 2015


This article attempts to understand how Nifty futures and by extension Nifty behaves during the current dasa period. Nifty is undergoing Rahu dasa-Venus sub period-Jupiter sub sub period -Mercury sub sub sub period. This last period is from February 18 to March 08, 2015.
Jupiter sub sub period is from 3rd January 2015 to 29 May 2015. We know from 3rd January till today ( February 24, 2015) Nifty has moved from 8364 to 8997 and is now at 8762.Throughout this period Jupiter had been retrograde. He will become Direct only on April 08, 2015. He will continue to be in Aslesha, ruled by Mercury till July 14th,2015, when he will ingress into Leo.
How have the Rahu Venus Jupiter dasa periods been in the past?
How will  the current period of Feb 18 to March 08 be?
What can we expect till May 29th, 2015?
Let us attempt to find some answers to these questions. Of course it is an educative attempt and is limited and defined only by my lack of knowledge. I request seniors and learned astrologers to pardon me for any wrong projections!
We look at Nov24 to Dec 16 time period of 2003.During that Rahu-Rahu-Venus-Jupiter period, we saw a sustained uptrend.It was the beginning of a permanent re-rating of our stock markets. FIIs had just discovered India...

As mentioned in the chart. all concerned planets strongly signified 11th house and Nifty zoomed!

The Main dasa lord Rahu had become very powerful at this time by his association with an exalted Saturn.Venus in Libra, is as comfortable as a housewife in her own home! She is friends with Saturn and when Rahu conjuncts Saturn, she also is an extension of Saturn.Jupiter was placed in Punarvasu, his own star...Result?  Beginnings of  another major move....

Upto May 09th, Venus moves through Pisces, Aries Taurus and 7 degrees of Gemini. All these are good houses for Nifty.But Rahu in the third house in Moon star is not auspiciously placed. Jupiter in Mercury star also is not good, but being in his exaltation house, he may be expected to bestow better results.
Summing up: We expect some positive moves with volatility till the budget, a fall immediately after the budget, and then some good pick up in March possibly upto 16th March and then a fall.
A new strong uptrend could begin in second week of April and last upto end of May.
Friends, I reiterate.
You need not know the future to be a successful trader.
Just identify and follow the trend. That is all.
All these analytical exercises are simply to educate ourselves in a fun sort of way and an attempt to satisfy the undying spirit of curiosity in each of us, which of course is the very hallmark of the human race!
Thank you for your patience!

Sunday, February 22, 2015

TCS- Astro Technical view



TCS seems to have begun its 4th wave on its long term charts. Since wave 2 was a simple correction, wave 4 can be a complex correction involving x waves.It will also consume time. We may look at enter at 1800 levels once it comes down from current highs.