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Monday, November 17, 2014

Nifty AstroTechnicals for the week Nov 17 to 21, 2014

The rapid rise trend which was seen from October 17 till November 03rd gave way to a sideways trend with a slight positive bias.
So what do we expect next?
In our blog post of October 13, itself, the week when all markets were falling and everyone was saying that the bull market is finally over, we had shared this chart...
Our take then was that this present bull move will be challenged only in 2015..there is absolutely no change in the expectation.
If anything, Nifty`s movement after October 17, has only strengthened our expectation.


Here is one more chart which gives another perspective of our understanding....

We are in a long term bull market and we expect this bull market to last till May or June 2016. We also expect a big correction and some complex monthly moves from January 2015. This could possibly be wave 4 of the  impulse or wave G of the diametric correction which is ongoing.Interestingly, we are in the 261.8% time extension of the 2011 correction right now. So a turning point is close by.  
While the very long term is quite bullish,  the near term plays a slightly different tune...
Look at the daily chart here...
It is pointing out that possibly 8415 is a near term top and without a down move to 8120 or 8080 levels Nifty may find it difficult to cross this top. This month end or the first week of December could be the start of the next big upmove. Weekly momentum is still on an uptrend though the daily is showing signs of tiredness. Unless there is a huge upmove with big volumes, taking out 8415 decisively, I would stick with an expectation of a downswing now.
Here is a chart of Nifty daily cycles...

We see that the next 108 day cycle bottom is towards the end of December, 2014-between December 24 and 29, to be precise.Next 23 day cycle is due on November 20/21 and going by the looks of Nifty moves, we are due for another inversion.Infact all inversions in 23 day cycles have been rounded and shown in the chart.We see that after two consecutive inversions, Nifty tends to go down and form a proper bottom.So a down move after a peak around Nov 20/21, seems possible, as per this chart.
Looking at the 108 day cycle currently in operation, it is very much a left translated cycle. So Nifty will be going up initially, in the next 108 day cycle commencing on Dec 29 or thereabouts.
Hourly cycle chart presents a very interesting picture.


1.147 bar cycle has phased out to November 07, from November 03.On its rebound  as s1(po) it is yet to gather momentum. This lack of momentum is a little bearish.
2.If we assume that cycle s ( 147 bars) did not phase out then we follow the red cycle. If so this cycle is due on November 18..and so could cause a pause in Nifty movements upward.
3. If we consider the r series of cycles, shown in blue, then the r2 phased out cycle is showing a central translation from the strong right translation seen earlier. This means a correction is due on Nifty.
Major cycle phasing out has caused this change in trend in Nifty. 
Wave wise, we are in the second corrective x. We had completed wave a, which was those huge gapping up moves and had started on wave b. This was the boxed in movement we are currently witnessing, between 8290 and 8415. Expecting one more down move to complete wave b. After that wave c upwards should continue.
We may also consider the entire move from 7724 as impulsive..In that case the boxed in movements are of wave 4 and here also we arrive at the same conclusion..one more move down is pending..after which wave 5 upwards should commence. 
To sum up:
a.Long term movements of Nifty are bullish. 
b. An important medium term top is expected sometime in January 2015, after which a meaningful correction should commence.
c.Daily and hourly cycles are pointing to an immediate down move after which the upward trend should continue.
d. According to Neowave, whether we are in the second x-abc formation or in an impulse move post 7724 bottom, a down move to complete wave b or wave 4 is pending. After which wave c upwards or wave 5 upwards should commence.   

Astro Wise, there are no changes in our views, from last week:



 On Nov 10, Venus and Jupiter were square. Mars and Pluto were conjunct. Effect dates are between Nov 18 to 20.
On Nov 13, Sun and Jupiter were square. Mars and Uranus were square.Negative effect maybe seen this week.
On Nov 19, Moon and Rahu square Mars in Sagittarius. Another negative development.
On Nov 19, Mars squares Ketu. 
From Nov 19 onwards, Jupiter becomes an 8th house significator.

Astro Wise also this week seems to be negative.Let us be cautious with long positions this week. 
Happy trading!


7 comments:

  1. My Dear Sureshji

    Kudos to you for an excellent sum up on all time frames on Nifty.

    I can only shower praises of appreciation on you for your wholesome, logic driven analysis.

    It helps me a lot.

    Thanks a ton

    Regards

    KS

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you Kannan.Appreciate your comments.

    Best Regards

    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
  3. Consider the possibility of 8650~7800~9300~8800~10500 till may 2015

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course Sameer Bhai..we will keep your possibilities also as an option. I had calculated based on angular relationships.

      Delete
  4. Dear mr. suresh,
    with many thanks for such an outstanding explanation and correlation of markets with stars and what should and may happen; as always we have to go with technical analysis as you have done and i personally very thankful for your commentary.
    could you please also add most traded indices like Dow jones and S&P also if possible
    and so we know what could we expect in year 2015
    with many thanks,
    vick

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Vick,
      I will post a view on S&P 500 by this weekend.

      Delete
  5. it seems time cycles mentioned in this mail is working ....
    top made at 8455 and we are in correction mode till 24 to 29 dec

    ReplyDelete