Week of July 20 to 27, 2020

Last week,  before July 13th, we had made two observations.
1. Volatility is going to increase. 2. Nifty has stiff resistance overhead.
Nifty opened at 10851 on July 13th, and went down to 10563 in the next three days and in the final two days ( July 16th and 17th ) moved up to a high of 10933 before closing the week at 10901.70.
Nifty closes at its highest post March 23, 2020.
Coming to cycles, Nifty has completed 43 days in its current cycle.
The fifth sub cycle ( anticipating this to be the last in this cycle ) has started upwards and completed three days.It has taken out the last sub cycle high of 10894.So immediately Nifty looks to move higher.
However there are several overhead resistances to be overcome.
Last week we had completed the oppositions of Sun and Jupiter as well as Sun and Pluto. On Monday, July 20th, we have the last of the trio, Sun opposite Saturn, the most stressful of the lot.
Soon Moon will join Sun in Cancer to oppose Saturn.
Things are never quiet in Cancer, especially if Saturn is transiting in Capricorn opposing it.This will add to the volatility of the markets.
Venus which was hitherto quite slow shall start picking up speed till it reaches its maximum by January 26, 2021.  Venus is the queen of Taurus and she always likes excitement like her neighbor, Mercury.
Another factor to consider is the Inter-market Divergence between indices...

We find Nifty and Dow Jones have gone up but Shanghai Index and Nasdaq have dropped.Such divergences are always a sign of caution.

Saturn may possibly bring in a reality check this week. If prices drop for a few days it is a great opportunity to buy because the world is still immersed in Neptunian fantasies !
Play safe! Stay Safe!

Week beginning July 13 to 17 2020

Last week ( July 06 to 10 ) markets did not particularly go anywhere.
Nifty opened the week at 10723, made a high of 10847, low of 10676 and closed at 10768. It was like running on a treadmill!
The uptrend became flattened a little. But for the effervescent Reliance and the Bajaj Finance twins, Nifty chart would have looked a lot uglier.
Nifty has completed 38 days in its second cycle which commenced on May 18th.
As discussed  during last week, we are entering an important cycle top zone.
Last week we had some bullish aspects which had pulled up the markets. Sun translating the energies of Jupiter and Pluto also acts as a magnet.
This week we are in the orb of Venus Direct and triple witching of the eclipses.
We also start the week with Mercury turning Direct and moving away from the clutches of Rahu.
Also this week we have the triple opposition combination of Sun opposing Retro Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn.
So volatility is going to increase. More sharp moves are possible.
Nifty is also heading into a big band of resistance overhead.
10635 to 11183 is a stiff block to negotiate.

Despite this our take is that the bull has not finished its business. The next cycle also is going to be a bullish one. So any shake outs can be a great opportunity to buy some quick movers.

We have been so preoccupied with Nifty. So how do the moving parts of Nify function?

These stocks have been performing better than Nifty since June 12, 2020, where we had the previous market bottom.While Bajaj twins had moved up in excess of 20% in this last leg, Reliance with a hefty weightage had moved up 18.21% and was primarily responsible for Nifty`s up move. 

This is the second set of Nifty companies which moved along with Nifty`s appreciation of 7.9% since June 12.

The above list of companies are marginally under-performing and slightly dragging Nifty.

This last set of companies are dragging the Nifty down!

Interesting times are coming especially for those who love two may movements. 

All the best. Be safe!

For the week July 06 to July 10 2020

The cycle which started from May 18th has now completed 33 days. Previous cycle from March 23 to May 18th was for 34 days.So we are entering a cycle topping zone.
We are in the fourth sub cycle inside the larger daily cycle. This sub cycle has also completed 6 days and is ripe for a reversal.
Sub cycle bottom is 10180. That is to be seen as a first support this week.
Mars in Pisces is going to be angular to Mercury by July 08.That is just two days away. So a reversal is to be expected.
However there are other combinations which we expect to pull the market up...One of them is the powerful opposition of Sun to Retro Jupiter on July 14th and then to Retro Pluto on July 15th. This we expect will pull the market up from an expected low this week into next week.
Also Sun has now gotten in front of Mercury in Gemini. This also augurs well for the market. Only spoilsport is Rahu in Gemini!
Same is the case with Retro Jupiter. It`s sojourn into Sagittarius is welcome news for bulls, but Pluto also is tagging along which is not so good news!
So some reduction in bull fervour is seen. The three eclipses whicxh have finally ended on June 05 also may have say in this situation.
These two planets have already met for the second time this year and they are slated to meet again on November 12, 2020.
There will be a seeming return to normalcy in this intervening period as Jupiter moves away from Pluto in a retro fashion. Markets also may rise in the next cycle but once Jupiter turns direct and approaches Pluto again, trouble may start once more.
So expecting a smaller correction this week and a rise into next week in a new sub-cycle...Next week is a different story awaiting to unfold!

To all my Gurus...of the past and in the present...Thank you for leading me to light and continuously shining on me...despite adversities...Light of Guru`s Knowledge will banish all darkness.

For the Week of June 29 to July 03, 2020

In our observations last week, we had expected Nifty to move up in the week of June 22 to 26.We had also observed that the up-move is getting stretched.Since Mercury retrograde period was operational we had decided to keep booking profits and guard against false moves.
From 10277, Nifty had moved up to 10533 before declining and closing the week at 10383.
Interestingly, there has been an Inter-market Divergence between Nifty and the Dow as seen from the bottom of May 18 onwards:

Nifty has advanced nearly 16% to the Dow.
FII flows has been good enough. One reason could be the Dollar weakness from 103 to 97.

. After a sustained bout of buying between June 17 and 24, we see some selling only on the last two days of previous week, on June 25 and 26.
So how does the coming week look like?
To arrive at a proper conclusion, let us look at some long term cycles.

Nifty has been guided by 4 year cycles which have sometimes expanded to 60 months or contracted to just 19 months.

We are just 3 months into the new cycle and so on a monthly cycle level, there is some more bullishness left.As mentioned on the chart, the current cycle may go up to September 2020 with a top anywhere between July and September 2020.

If we look at the previous severe decline in prices, in 2008, a 36 month up move was corrected in 9 months.

In 2020, price decline of just two months corrected prices seen 46 months ago.So the price decline justifies a significant bottom categorization. In other words, this 2020 bottom may stay put for quite a while.

So while the monthly cycle looks bullish, the weekly looks like a correction is in the offing.With 5 weeks of upmove already completed, a breather is in fact quite healthy.

On the daily cycle levels also we look to see a correction into July 06 to 09.
Several astro aspects are also coming into play right now.
Venus has turned Direct and Mercury completes its mid point of retrograde on June 30 /July 01.Mars is aspected by Retrograde Saturn and Jupiter moves back into Sagittarius.
After a dip this week, Nifty could attempt to move up to 10500 and then start a bigger correction.

  Classical patterns and Bearish Divergence on RSI also point out the same...

Look to 10030 levels first and then 9900 levels.
Our expectation is that post a good correction Nifty is poised  to move higher in July 2020.

God Bless and stay safe!

For the week of June 22 to June 26 2020

Last week we noticed that Nifty had completed two cycles and that the next sub cycle could be bullish as well. We had postulated that this sub cycle, in due course,  may move up to 10500-10600.
Nifty opened the week at 9919 and after making a low of 9726 moved up strongly to make a high of 10272 before closing at 10244.During the previous sub cycle Nifty had hit a high of 10326.75.That is the immediate overhead resistance for Nifty.

As can be seen the current cycle has now consumed 23 days.Previous cycle was 34 days, low to low.We are in the 4th sub cycle which has already consumed 6 days.
We are also moving into a denser sky this week.
Mercury had already turned retrograde.
We had just completed an annular Solar Eclipse, which actually cast its shadow across Ladaak.
During this eclipse, Sun and Rahu were both aspected by Mars.By June 28th this Mars will receive a powerful malefic aspect from Saturn.
Venus will finally turn Direct on June 25, 2020.
With Neptune going retro on June 23, between June 23 and 25, six planets shall be retrograde.
Jupiter also slowly moves towards its conjunction with Pluto.India-China border dispute, uncontrolled COVID, fear of a second way and riots in America are all getting high lighted.
Our expectation for the market is it could be neutral to down for the first two days of the coming week and then  move up once again as its fifth sub cycle.Up move is now getting stretched a little and soon  probably from next week, we may see corrections setting in.
Caution is the word. Mercury is retrograde. So guard against fake moves which can eat up your stop losses. Keep booking profits or else they may quickly vanish!

Regarding Bank Nifty,

it is in a wide trading range. Immediate overhead resistance is 21807.4 and the next is 21967. Supports are at 20939 and 19456 for the week.
Since May 18, Bank Nifty has been performing better than Nifty which is a good sign for Nifty Bulls.

BN has been growing at 21.42% versus 16.11% for Nifty.

Some of the sector indices which have done well or average....

Good to average performers...

Whether this up-move since March 23 2020 is a bear rally or the first leg of a new bull market, it has sure been broad based with lot of stocks participating.
Have a great week!

Republic of China

This is the chart of Republic of China on the left and the current transit of planets on the China chart, on the right.
Both the Ascendant and Moon are in Capricorn in the natal chart. The natal Ascendant and Moon are heavily pressurized by the malefic trio of Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto.Normally benefic Jupiter is a pure 12th lord for China and hence more malefic than benefic.
Problems have started from November 04, 2019, when Jupiter joined Ketu, Saturn and Pluto in the 12th.They intensified from February 07, 2020,when Mars also joined Ketu and others in Sagittarius.
On May 10th, something interesting happened. Saturn the powerful ascendant lord for China turned retrograde at less than a degree and this may lead to unstable thinking and wrong moves.
Jupiter and Saturn will conjunct on December 20, just within 2 degrees of the Ascendant.
Jupiter is in fact translating transformation vibes between Pluto and Saturn and so we may expect China to change in ways we cannot imagine. Revolutionary issues will crop up  inside China.
Seventh house is dominated by a debilitated Mars in conjunction with Pluto. This combo aspects both Ascendant and the Moon. So the underlying thinking has always been, that " With brute force and power we can break down our adversaries.". That coulkd well undergo a change between 2020 and 2025. By 2025 and 2026, Pluto will conjunct the Ascendant and Pluto is a merciless transformer.
Solar and Lunar Eclipses in the sixth house ( conflict house ) are probably influencing  the current
situation. We hope to see good  improvement after the eclipses.( June 21 and July 05 ).

For the week of June 15 to 19, 2020

In our last week`s post, we had expected the markets to strongly move up towards the Sun square Mars date of June 08 and then be subject to profit taking.Nifty hit a high of 10326.75 on June 08 and since reacted down to reach a low of 9544 on Friday before closing at 9972.70 for the week.
We have seen first of three eclipses so far...
The Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05..Let me reproduce what we had said about this eclipse  in our post of " June 01 to June 05 2020".

As expected markets reduced their bullishness especially on June 12.This low of June 12 also coincides with the Mars-Neptune conjunction of June 13, 2020.Interesting to also note that this steep sell off happens one day after Sun and   Mercury both reached extreme declinations on June 11, 2020.

So what next?

There is never any lack of excitement in the skies!

This week we shall see the intensification of retrogrades.By June 18 this week, at 10:28:50 hrs, Mercury goes retrograde in Jupiter star in Gemini.With this the number of planets which go retrograde increases to 5: Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and by 18th, Mercury. 

And the baton now changes, from Mars to Sun.

Sun enters into Gemini on June 14, 2020.Any sub cycle which bottoms out close to a Sun ingress into Gemini generally gives rise to another bullish subcycle or cycle.

Sun also is unhurriedly moving towards into rendezvous with Rahu on June 21.( Solar Eclipse maximum at 12.10 pm ).Exact Sun Rahu conjunction is on June 20 at 06.39 am.

Cycle wise, the current bullish cycle is 18 days old and we have likely completed two legs.Since both legs were right translated, we expect the next sub cycle also to be bullish.Likely sub cycle top targets can be 10500 to 10615.

Surprises and reversals to be expected. After all we are passing through unstable times. Protect your positions with adequate stop-losses.  

For the Week of June 08 to 12, 2020

Nifty opened the previous week at 9726.85 on June 01, 2020, went up to 10176.20 on June 03, came down up to 9944.25 by June 04 before closing the week at 10142.15 on June 05, Friday.
Contrary to expectations, Venus sqr Mars was just a small blip on June 03 and now the market is strongly moving towards the Sun square Mars aspect of June 08/09.Sun squares Neptune on June 10 and Mars conjuncts with Neptune on  June 12.
Neptune is all about dreaminess and being divorced from reality.It represents drugged states of altered consciousness.Assumptions rule the roost right now.
All markets are also on a high caused by liquidity.There cannot be a reality check because Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter and Venus are currently retrograde. They will be joined by Mercury which goes retrograde on June 18th.Neptune will join the retrograde group by June 22,2020. Six planets will be retrograde!
When the dreamer goes retrograde, then a reality check may happen.Especially with a Solar eclipse on the same June 22, 2020. 
We expect some profit taking this week before the markets move higher into the week of  June 22, 2020.Not conducive for any shorts but for going long after some profit taking.

9850 is the support level on Nifty futures below which more weakness is expected. Immediate resistances to overcome are at 10266 and 11023.

For Bank Nifty the immediate hurdle is 21967, previous cycle top.

Talking of cycles, we are in the second sub cycle of the new cycle which began on May 18.

First sub cycle took 5 days and the current second one has taken 8 days so far. Any day this sub cycle  may start topping out in line with the cosmic aspects.This second cycle was more bullish than the flat first one. In fact Nifty took out the previous cycle top only in this sub cycle. 

Currently we continue to expect the next sub cycle to also be a bullish one.

FIIs have been net buyers in the Cash Segment from May 26 2020. From June 03, their buy value has started reducing.

Mutual funds have been selling mostly, in June 2020.

International Synchronicity

All stock markets are influenced by International Fund Flows. IFFs are of course subject to planetary influences. The one influence which has international appeal are astro aspects. Among the markets there maybe less flow or more flow depending on outlooks for each country by IFFs. In other words, amplitudes may differ but turn dates tend to be similar.
There again, there maybe differences of a few days for the same kind of astro aspects. Example: DAX bottomed on March 18 whereas Dow and Nifty bottomed on March 23, 2020.Dow and Dax peaked on April 29, whereas we did it on April 30.Dow and Dax bottomed on May 14th whereas Nifty did it on May 18th.
Looking at amplitudes,

 The Dow is the least performer among the top three US Indices.While NASDAQ is primarily Domestic Institutions, S&P is essentially retail and the DOW is International Funds.
This only means there is still some reluctance from International Funds into Dow and this could be an important consideration going forward.

Fibo time extensions of various lows of DOW point out June 08 and 09 to be important dates.
If the Retro Venus Sqr Mars right now with a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05, does not slow down the market, then it can only be slowed down by Sun square Mars of June 08-10.
As mentioned in previous blogs, we still continue to believe in one more leg up in June.
For that we need some moderation in the bullishness now...
With Kaala Sarpa Dosha out of the way, issues other than Corona have started to come afore..We continue to remember that we are still under the influence of Saturn-Pluto-Jupiter conjunctions.
Nifty will continue to follow the mother market..

Waxing and Waning Cycles of Long Term Planets

When the Moon conjuncts Sun, we have a New Moon.After the Conjunction, Moon moves away from the Sun. That period is called Sukla paksha or waxing phase.
When the Moon reaches a point 180 degrees away from the Sun, we say Moon is in opposition to Sun and that is Full Moon. After that Moon moves towards the Sun forming Krishna Paksha or waning cycle.
Similarly long term planets like Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto also form waxing and waning cycles to one another.
In this post we examine the waxing and waning cycles of other planets with Pluto, "the Ultimate Transformer."

This is the longest cycle. Pluto Neptune waxing cycle began in June 1892 and will end in an opposition by August 2141 with Pluto in Taurus.This is toooooo long for us to consider!

 Waxing phase ends by September 2046.When larger planets are in waxing phase, that is good for the world, because transformation happen in a positive way. Compare it with 1939-45, when Uranus was in a waning phase with Pluto..There was transformation caused by World Wars..transformation by death and destruction.
Anyway these are generational planets and their effects are generational, to say the least.

 Saturn and Jupiter cycles to Pluto are more interesting because we could relate with out timelines and we can measure performances over economic indicators such as Stock Indices.

 We can see all other outer planets, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune progressively waxing away from Pluto.

During the entire Jupiter waxing phase with Pluto,between 1995 to 2001, market just meandered around..

Jupiter waxing phase of 2007 sees two bear markets and recoveries but the 2008 top does not get taken out during the Jup-Pluto waxing phase.

Jupiter-Pluto waning cycle of 2013 takes the market from the 2013 bottom to a 7 year top in January 2020 till Saturn conjuncts Pluto.
Soon after Saturn Pluto waxing cycle commences, markets take a multi month  dip and after that they  attempt to cross previous highs provided there are no Jupiter Stations nearby.

If there is a Jupiter cycle like we have now, then after the fall, market struggles to get up for a while.

For a Jupiter-Pluto series with three passages, we find that market dips into the conjunction every single time. Market tries its best rally attempt between the second and third passages.
So Saturn, a first rate malefic will pull the market up along-with Pluto, another malefic. And Jupiter, the Great Benefic will combine with Pluto and pull down the markets in the long term. So we expect huge volatility and ups and downs with upward bias from March 2020 to July August 2026.
So great times for traders and short term investors but not so good for buy and hold type of investors!