Nifty Dasa Analysis February 24, 2015

This article attempts to understand how Nifty futures and by extension Nifty behaves during the current dasa period. Nifty is undergoing Rahu dasa-Venus sub period-Jupiter sub sub period -Mercury sub sub sub period. This last period is from February 18 to March 08, 2015.
Jupiter sub sub period is from 3rd January 2015 to 29 May 2015. We know from 3rd January till today ( February 24, 2015) Nifty has moved from 8364 to 8997 and is now at 8762.Throughout this period Jupiter had been retrograde. He will become Direct only on April 08, 2015. He will continue to be in Aslesha, ruled by Mercury till July 14th,2015, when he will ingress into Leo.
How have the Rahu Venus Jupiter dasa periods been in the past?
How will  the current period of Feb 18 to March 08 be?
What can we expect till May 29th, 2015?
Let us attempt to find some answers to these questions. Of course it is an educative attempt and is limited and defined only by my lack of knowledge. I request seniors and learned astrologers to pardon me for any wrong projections!
We look at Nov24 to Dec 16 time period of 2003.During that Rahu-Rahu-Venus-Jupiter period, we saw a sustained uptrend.It was the beginning of a permanent re-rating of our stock markets. FIIs had just discovered India...

As mentioned in the chart. all concerned planets strongly signified 11th house and Nifty zoomed!

The Main dasa lord Rahu had become very powerful at this time by his association with an exalted Saturn.Venus in Libra, is as comfortable as a housewife in her own home! She is friends with Saturn and when Rahu conjuncts Saturn, she also is an extension of Saturn.Jupiter was placed in Punarvasu, his own star...Result?  Beginnings of  another major move....

Upto May 09th, Venus moves through Pisces, Aries Taurus and 7 degrees of Gemini. All these are good houses for Nifty.But Rahu in the third house in Moon star is not auspiciously placed. Jupiter in Mercury star also is not good, but being in his exaltation house, he may be expected to bestow better results.
Summing up: We expect some positive moves with volatility till the budget, a fall immediately after the budget, and then some good pick up in March possibly upto 16th March and then a fall.
A new strong uptrend could begin in second week of April and last upto end of May.
Friends, I reiterate.
You need not know the future to be a successful trader.
Just identify and follow the trend. That is all.
All these analytical exercises are simply to educate ourselves in a fun sort of way and an attempt to satisfy the undying spirit of curiosity in each of us, which of course is the very hallmark of the human race!
Thank you for your patience!

TCS- Astro Technical view

TCS seems to have begun its 4th wave on its long term charts. Since wave 2 was a simple correction, wave 4 can be a complex correction involving x waves.It will also consume time. We may look at enter at 1800 levels once it comes down from current highs.

Nifty Astro Technicals February 23 to 28, 2015

During the forthcoming week, from February 23 to 28 eot, Moon moves through the stars of Aswini, ruled by Ketu  to Thiruvathira, ruled by Rahu.That is through the 10th, 11th and 12th houses of Nifty Futures.In transit, Saturn from the 5th house strongly trines with Venus, Mars and Ketu in the 9th.
Throughout the entire period of week, the Nodes reverse and go direct.When they become normal again, markets may reverse.
Here are the aspects of the week:

February 22 Venus and Mars are conjunct in Pisces

February 23 Sun Saturn square

February 24 Saturn trines Venus

February 26 Saturn trines Mars

February 26 Sun Neptune conjunction

February 27 Neptune is at extreme distance

February 27 Moon reaches its maximum declination

I had discussed about " Effect dates" of aspects in the past. Effect dates of all these important celestial aspects are slated to become effective not this week, but from March 1st week onwards.

It is important to note that the ascendant starts travelling in Aries from March 03 onwards.  

So astrologically, Nifty looks to move up, but with heavy volatility and countermoves.Daily gains maybe incremental but there maybe hugh intra day moves. In other words, despite so much hype about budget, we had not yet witnessed a strong rally.The market seems to be a bit circumspect, despite global cues becoming positive.

It is time we looked at our cycle charts..

 We see the red cycle of 108 days slowing down as we approach February 28.The smaller blue cycle is already turning down.This is one more reason for heightened volatility.Interestingly after the budget there is a suggestion of a strong upmove and a topping out.

Neo waves wise, we are in wave e of the forming diametric or alternatively, we are in wave c of c wave which had begun 24 trading days ago, when Guv Rajan announced a surprise rate cut.

If 8997 gets taken out on good volumes, we may see an extended c wave.Or else, 9082 or 9140 should form a first resistance level from which Nifty could react down.

 Hourly angles suggest that the congestion going on for a few days could be over and we may see an upmove. Feb 25 and March 05 seem to be important turn periods intra day wise.

When we closely analyse wave c of c, we see that the present leg is an impulse, with wave 4 forming a diamond shaped diametric. So wave 5 upwards is pending.Another 200 odd levels, budget or no budget.
Finally a look at long term weekly charts...

Weekly cycles suggest that there is more time correction to be done, for a top of 9800+ to be reached.So possibly we are moving towards an intermediate top in March?

Trade carefully, because the budget week is also the settlement week. Enough and more reasons for volatility.

Venus and Elder

Venus Remedies is showing a low angle of Ascent. It seems to have completed one xabc format. This means there is a possibility for another xabc formation.

Ind Swift Laboratories

Ind Swift Laboratories seems to have bottomed out at 22 and technically the prolonged correction from 2004 seems to have come to an end.The stock is beginning a new cycle as of now.
What does Astro say?
The stock is currently undergoing Rahu period with Jupiter sub period.
Rahu is in the second house but in Moon star. Moon is a 12th house lord for this stock. So unless Rahu moves to Sun star, we may not see much traction.Also Jupiter must come out of the retrograde period. Rahu comes to Sun star on July 13, 2015.And Jupiter becomes direct on April 09th. So post April 09th, Ind Swift may start a steady uptrend.After June 2015, Ind Swift enters the Saturn sub period. As long as Saturn is retrograde, this uptrend or sideways trend may continue. Once Saturn becomes direct on August 03rd, things could turn difficult and only when Saturn enters Mercury star on December 29, 2015, shall the uptrend resume once again.

 

Mars in Pisces along with Venus

Mars moves through Jupiter, Saturn and Mercury stars in Pisces.Pisces  is the ninth house for Nifty futures and Mars is a malefic both naturally and functionally.While Venus, a natural benefic, is in her exaltation in Pisces. So how has Nifty fared in the past? Let us take a trip down memory lane to a few years...

In 2013, when Mars entered Pisces, shown in yellow highlight, there was a reversal of down trend and formation of a short term peak. When Venus joined Mars, Nifty resumed the down trend in a more pronounced manner.

We see the same trend in 2011. Nifty moves up from a sideways trend, forms a short term peak and then when Venus joins Mars, Nifty reacts down more pronouncedly.

Here is a complete reversal! Mars enters Pisces when Venus is already there, but in a retrograde fashion.So while Mars goes through Pisces at his pace, Venus retrogrades there and leaves Pisces only after Mars leaves. When retrograde Venus conjuncts with Mars in Pisces, we see a huge inversion- market shoots up consistently. Added catalyst is the presence of Uranus!  

Both in 2007 and in 2002 ( added as just a flavour of a more distant past), Nifty forms a top,forms a low and then reverses to a higher high. This tells us that it is the presence of Venus in direct motion,  in its exalted sign, which actually pulls the market down and causes a lower low.  

Now, I admit this exercise is too simplistic. We must consider the effects of other planets also to get a more complete picture.

So fast forward to 2015...

Let us also look at the total astro chart for some more information...

What strikes us is the total benevolent long term influences amongst these many occupants of Pisces.Jupiter forming trine with Venus, Mars and Uranus.Also Uranus and Pluto squaring for the last time in our lives.Sure, Venus will pull the market down, conjunctions of Venus with Ketu and Mars with Ketu also may pull the market down, yet because of the positive influences of the long term planets, Nifty may recover.

In other words, Nifty should move up slowly, with great volatility, brought about by Mars, Venus and Ketu conjunction.

But things definitely will come to a head in March where the positivity may give way to a move towards the mean, what is called as mean reversion.So trade cautiously.Capital protection is always the first concern.

Crude Oil Outlook 2015

Crude seems to be in the final leg of wave c. It is expected to bottom out 9 months from now, in November 2015.Green shade represents the upmove period from 2000 to 2008 and the purple shade depicts the time period of correction from 2008 to the present period. We see that the corrective period equals the uptrend period, more or less.Since corrections take longer than up-moves, we expect the bottom for Crude to be sometime in November or early December 2015. 80 to 90 is a severe resistance zone- so right now crude is for trading and not for investing.
This also means that the current uptrend is only corrective and crude should resume its downtrend after this upmove. That ought to be c of c and may bring crude`s downward trajectory to an end.

Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 16 to 20, 2015

On February 13, 2015, Mars has moved into Pisces. Here it will move through Jupiter, Saturn and Mercury stars.

We see that Mars in Pisces will form a peak and then a down trend starts in most cases.

On February 16, 2015, Venus ingresses into Pisces as well. Venus in Pisces also corresponds to a peak formation and a down trend later on.

February 19, 2015, 05.17.08 am. We have a New Moon in Aquarius. This New Moon triggers the mid-point of Uranus Pluto square. At 12.57 hours, the same day, Moon will be the closest to the Earth. This could increase the intensity of the New Moon. New Moon is in Mars star, and Mars is in Pisces in the star of Saturn. So we may expect more news of reforms, some of them radical. Since Saturn and Mars are involved will it be a little bitter?

Also Rahu is in the mid-point of Jupiter Saturn formation. So there is confusion in the minds of powers that be as to the next course of action. While Jupiter wants to give, Saturn does not want to. And Rahu acts exactly like Saturn. So any economic news may be taken only with a pinch of salt.

Anyway Sun is also in the midpoint of Uranus Pluto square. So it is something to do with Governments. My take is it will lead to more global bullishness.

On February 22, 2015, Mars and Venus are conjunct. Market tends to move up in the short term, after the conjunction.

On February 23, 2015, Sun squares Saturn and that generally corresponds to a peak within 3 to 4 days and a jerky fall immediately.

So the current uptrend looks to continue till the weekend or at best till early next week after which a short term pull back can occur.

Be on the watch out on February 19/20 also for any sudden pull back caused by the New Moon.

Next week and into March first week we have several important aspects coming up. My take is that volatility should increase from here on, notwithstanding the budget.

Still expect volatility spikes. . so be careful with your trades.

Let Lord Shiva guide you all the way from this Maha Shivaratri!

Dow Jones and Gold charts Feb 2015

We had last seen Dow Jones on November 27th 2014,which is available in this link...

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/11/astro-technicals-of-dow-jones.html

Nothing much has changed with the Dow. We had expected the Dow to face resistance at 18000 levels.That is what happened. Dow turned down from 18000 and had gone down up to 17037 and is now attempting another go at 18000.As I write this article, Dow is at 17934.
So, how do the charts look now?

This time round, Dow may break 18000 and march towards 18650...

In the hourly, we see that Dow has broken out of the descending channel convincingly.

Look at the astro chart. Jupiter is in 22 degrees Cancer, while the Ascendant is at 25 deg Cancer. In April, Jupiter is becoming direct. So it will lord over Dow Jones. Jupiter happens to be a significator of 6 and 9th house.So generous price appreciation is to be expected. Also Rahu will move into the second house shortly. Since Rahu is in Moon star, this movement also may cause bullishness.Once the congestion in the 8th house dissipates, Dow is saet to take off. So we may expect other world markets also to follow suit.

Gold is a totally different market, altogether...

As can be seen, Gold is about to commence first wave of c..This means that Gold may go below $1000.

Nifty Technicals Update Feb 12, 2015

This is an updated cycles chart.Due to the interplay between the smaller blue cycle and the longer and more powerful red cycle..(blue wants down and red wants up), Nifty is treading water at 8600- 8650 levels. Eventually the red cycle direction may prevail.Comparing with the previous red cycle and Nifty behaviour, it looks to be a more sedate rise, cycles wise, rather than spectacular and Nifty may or may not cross the previous top in one go. Actually it is academic because as a trader, I would simply hang on the coat tails of Nifty and go where she goes.Wave wise, the drop to 8400 levels was wave d and the next rise should be wave e and it may cross the previous top.