Nifty AstroTechnicals for the week Nov 17 to 21, 2014

The rapid rise trend which was seen from October 17 till November 03rd gave way to a sideways trend with a slight positive bias.
So what do we expect next?
In our blog post of October 13, itself, the week when all markets were falling and everyone was saying that the bull market is finally over, we had shared this chart...
Our take then was that this present bull move will be challenged only in 2015..there is absolutely no change in the expectation.
If anything, Nifty`s movement after October 17, has only strengthened our expectation.

Here is one more chart which gives another perspective of our understanding....

We are in a long term bull market and we expect this bull market to last till May or June 2016. We also expect a big correction and some complex monthly moves from January 2015. This could possibly be wave 4 of the  impulse or wave G of the diametric correction which is ongoing.Interestingly, we are in the 261.8% time extension of the 2011 correction right now. So a turning point is close by.  
While the very long term is quite bullish,  the near term plays a slightly different tune...
Look at the daily chart here...

It is pointing out that possibly 8415 is a near term top and without a down move to 8120 or 8080 levels Nifty may find it difficult to cross this top. This month end or the first week of December could be the start of the next big upmove. Weekly momentum is still on an uptrend though the daily is showing signs of tiredness. Unless there is a huge upmove with big volumes, taking out 8415 decisively, I would stick with an expectation of a downswing now.
Here is a chart of Nifty daily cycles...

We see that the next 108 day cycle bottom is towards the end of December, 2014-between December 24 and 29, to be precise.Next 23 day cycle is due on November 20/21 and going by the looks of Nifty moves, we are due for another inversion.Infact all inversions in 23 day cycles have been rounded and shown in the chart.We see that after two consecutive inversions, Nifty tends to go down and form a proper bottom.So a down move after a peak around Nov 20/21, seems possible, as per this chart.
Looking at the 108 day cycle currently in operation, it is very much a left translated cycle. So Nifty will be going up initially, in the next 108 day cycle commencing on Dec 29 or thereabouts.

Hourly cycle chart presents a very interesting picture.

1.147 bar cycle has phased out to November 07, from November 03.On its rebound  as s1(po) it is yet to gather momentum. This lack of momentum is a little bearish.

2.If we assume that cycle s ( 147 bars) did not phase out then we follow the red cycle. If so this cycle is due on November 18..and so could cause a pause in Nifty movements upward.

3. If we consider the r series of cycles, shown in blue, then the r2 phased out cycle is showing a central translation from the strong right translation seen earlier. This means a correction is due on Nifty.

Major cycle phasing out has caused this change in trend in Nifty. 

Wave wise, we are in the second corrective x. We had completed wave a, which was those huge gapping up moves and had started on wave b. This was the boxed in movement we are currently witnessing, between 8290 and 8415. Expecting one more down move to complete wave b. After that wave c upwards should continue.

We may also consider the entire move from 7724 as impulsive..In that case the boxed in movements are of wave 4 and here also we arrive at the same conclusion..one more move down is pending..after which wave 5 upwards should commence. 

To sum up:

a.Long term movements of Nifty are bullish. 

b. An important medium term top is expected sometime in January 2015, after which a meaningful correction should commence.

c.Daily and hourly cycles are pointing to an immediate down move after which the upward trend should continue.

d. According to Neowave, whether we are in the second x-abc formation or in an impulse move post 7724 bottom, a down move to complete wave b or wave 4 is pending. After which wave c upwards or wave 5 upwards should commence.   

Astro Wise, there are no changes in our views, from last week:

 On Nov 10, Venus and Jupiter were square. Mars and Pluto were conjunct. Effect dates are between Nov 18 to 20.

On Nov 13, Sun and Jupiter were square. Mars and Uranus were square.Negative effect maybe seen this week.

On Nov 19, Moon and Rahu square Mars in Sagittarius. Another negative development.

On Nov 19, Mars squares Ketu. 

From Nov 19 onwards, Jupiter becomes an 8th house significator.

Astro Wise also this week seems to be negative.Let us be cautious with long positions this week. 

Happy trading!

Nifty Astro Technicals- Astro picture Nov 10 to 14 2014

Nov 10 Mars conjunct Pluto. Ketu Jupiter trine ends. The trine formation of Venus and Sun with Neptune will show its effect this week.

Venus square Jupiter

Nov 11 Moon opposes the Mars Pluto conjunction

Nov 12 Sun starts to square Jupiter

Venus moves into Scorpio. And begins to conjunct Saturn. Mars begins to oppose Uranus

Nov 13:By the week end, Sun will be in firm square to Jupiter.

Neptune also goes into deep declination this weekend, before turning direct next week.

Long suffering Librans have Venus, Sun and Mercury moving through their signs this week. Soon all these planets will move into Scorpio and Librans can heave a sigh of relief.

For the markets, all the formations indicate a reversal of the existing trend. It could be another collective downswing in all indices, with Nifty and Sensex swinging down lesser than others.

Since planets are moving out from the sign of balance into the sign of aggressiveness and intensity, volatility can only increase from now on.

In fact negativity in one form or other will be present till December 04, 2014.But we are still in a long term uptrend because the biggies are yet to commit to one another.

This matches with the technical pictures as well…so take care with your longs.

Nifty Astro Technicals for Nov 10 to 14, 2014

Here is a chart of Nifty Fibo levels:

The current wave has consumed nearly 50% time of the previous wave and is yet to begin any retrace.
Looking at the daily cycles, the 23 day cycle has consumed 14 days so far and the momentum has now tapered down.23 day cycle has another 9 more days to go.Perhaps this is why the hourly cycles are so phased out by now,Interestingly the 23 day cycles also show  more inversions  compared to the larger 108 day cycle which seems to find bottoms at regular intervals.The next 108 day cycle bottom is around December 24, 2014.

Nifty Astro view for November 2014

Nifty Astro November 03 to 07, 2014

Most significant change this month is that Saturn moves into Scorpio.

On November 02, 2104, Sunday, at 02:05:45 am, Saturn moves from Libra into Scorpio. He remains in Scorpio, till October 25, 2017, Wednesday, 03:37:53 pm. That is for a full 3 years.

Early part of the week will be dominated by the effects of Venus and Sun respectively in waning trine with Neptune

By November 3^rd and 5^th, both Venus and Sun form trines with Chiron, another slow moving celestial body.

By November 9^th, Venus squares Jupiter.

By 10^th, Mars conjuncts Pluto and on 12^th, he squares Uranus. The month long Ketu- Jupiter trine comes to an end.( crest  by 18^th or stronger trough)

By November 12, Venus conjuncts Saturn in Scorpio.

By November 13, Sun squares Jupiter.

By November 18, Sun will conjunct Saturn.

On November 20, Mars will square Rahu and Ketu. On the same day, Venus will square Neptune.

On November 26, Venus will trine Neptune. On the same day Sun will square Neptune. Next day Venus will square Chiron.

Meanwhile Uranus and Pluto will be moving towards their square formation on December 15, 2014.  

In short, we are going to see a time band where faster moving planets will mostly conjunct and square the slower planets.

Both Venus and Sun trine correlates with some topping action. So the present optimism in the markets may persist upto November 07^th. (07^th also happens to be a Full Moon. So reversals are a possibility.) Thereafter, weaknesses would begin to manifest. Since Jupiter trine with Ketu will be removed, by November 10^th, optimism will start reducing. We are still awaiting the bottom formation after the recent Solar Eclipse. But there could be heavy volatility in the week 10 th to 14^th and then some stronger declines.

It looks like we will have an important top in November 2014 which could form a bottom by first week of December 2014.

In effect, upto November 07/10-optimistic.Unfortunately, we have only three trading days next week.

Of the three, only November 07^th looks positive.

November 10 to 18- dualistic. (Between 15 and 22, three major planets have their extreme declinations. Neptune, Saturn and Pluto.)   

November 19 th to December 04-pessimistic.

This is our take for November 2014.

Nevertheless, unless the market takes a turn we will not initiate a trade. No anticipatory trades for us.

Nifty Astro Technicals Nov 03 to 07, 2014

We saw an unbelievable week of trading go by. Markets all over the world just exploded upwards, catching most people by surprise. FOMC`s withdrawal of QE hardly made any ripple while the Bank of Japan`s reintroduction of QE was wildly welcomed.
As usual we will see the cycles, followed by an astro update.Since Iam updating nearly regularly, Iam doing away with elaborate week end reports.
Here is the cycles update....

I have cleared up the chart and have introduced a simple nomenclature so that we can follow the cycles easily.We will stay with hourly charts and gradually include daily, weekly and monthly cycles.This is because our primary entry and exit points are the hourly charts.
Our first observation is that
1.Blue cycle r was right translated and predictably proved bearish.
2.Blue cycle r bottomed out at wave point x, on October 17th, along with its sub cycles, p and q.
3.Thereafter wave r1 started.
4.Normally a cycle starts out with some basing formation and low momentum.Often there by a secondary spike down as well.However r1 started off with a gap up, which meant that the momentum in r1 cycle was going to be bigger than normal.
5. We understand a cycle better, by analysing its sub cycles.So we look at p1 and q1.
6.Immediately we observe p1 was a right translation. So we now have two clues, a. p1 opened with a gap up.2. p1 was right translated. So the bigger cycle was going to be bullish.
7. When p1 bottomed out, Nifty hourly did make a few negative bars, around the 8000 level, which actually was the third clue. That if a sub cycle bottom is shallow, then the next move will be  explosive.The converse would be if a left translated cycle makes a lower top, then the decline which will follow ought to be very bearish.
8.When q1 began, the move was explosive. Even after the halfway mark, the wave continues to be heavily bullish.
So we conclude that cycle r1 is heavily right translated and so the next cycle r2 of 80 bars may be bullish.The possibilities of q1,r1 and the larger cycle s getting phased out or postponed is high. This means the cycle bottom may not be on Nov3, but may extend some more days. However, since the larger cycle s is due, a low is definitely round the corner.
From a trading perspective, new purchases may not be initiated. I have shown two parallel trend lines. The third inner trend line is literally skywards. Break of this trend line is first stage confirmation that this cycle top ( not market top for God`s sake!)  is in place.Break of the channel is the second confirmation that Nifty Hourly is looking to form a bottom.Long positions maybe liquidated, but not confident of shorts yet.Since we expect the next cycle also to be bullish, this bottom can be used to re enter longs.
I do hope this format is useful. Please send me your observations.
Do note Iam also learning alongwith you. So any mistakes, errors and omissions may be pardoned!

Nifty Neowave Update 30 October 2014

Here are the updated wave counts for Nifty:

Hourly Cycles have been updated here.

 Observe how Nifty is behaving to the second cycle pointed out in small blue arrows. The mustard colour square represents the middle area of the cycle. This time band reduces volatility and prices may sometimes decline also.
Cycles are prone for displacement. So November 03 can be 5 also.If Nifty comes near a downcycle, it is better to be alert, in case of any breakdown.

Nifty Cycles update October 29, 2014

When Nifty touched 5097, it reached the highest point so far since the bottom of 7724.The aqua cycles represent 40 day cycles.Since we have completed 63 bars so far, we may safely surmise that the entire aqua cycle is now right translating.This is very clear when we compare the market behaviour during the past aqua cycle.
This means the current trend has reached maturity levels and the risk reward ratio is not in favour of buying.This also means that  the next aqua cycle is most probably going to be bullish. And we may expect Nifty to now form a higher bottom.
In the very short term, if hourly bar closes below 8053, we may go short.
And once Nifty reverses, we may buy for positional trading.

Nifty Hourly Cycles Update October 28, 2014

The current cycle has crossed the half way mark and is still bullish. The current hourly bars are quite far away from the time line. However the bars have fallen out of the steep rise trendline. This means the momentum has slowed, despite an upmove today.Since the cycle top is near, we may expect some correction.
Watch out for a good bar reversal  or three continuous lower tops and bottoms on the hourly, to reverse long positions.
The momentum charts till a similar story. Reading together, we get a number of trade set ups.
Importantly, after a low in early November, we may expect a good rise, looking at the Weekly charts.

We will look at the wave counts tomorrow.

Nifty Cycles updated October 27, 2014

Now, we can clearly see the cycle turning.After a spike to 8064,Nifty has turned back.Mustard coloured highlighted area, is a small cluster of 20 hour cycle bottoming alongwith a possible larger cycle. I say possible because it is unclear how it will react yet. But we see the cycle has definitely turned down in the hourly and that is what matters for now.Today was a day for shorts.The first target seems to be the 7920-30 area. That corresponds to the first time line  area. ( Blue line). If Nifty accelerates down this timeline, then also the trend is affected and we wait for a larger correction.
If Nifty bouncesd from the time line, then also be ready for one more shorting opportunity. We recommend shorts because the cycle has turned down.It is seemingly down till November 3rd or 5th.
Please note we are trading now without any astrology or Neo wave! Our bottom line is to make money and all stuff available to us are only tools.

Nifty Astro Technicals October 27 to 31

Here are the updated Neo wave counts...

Time price square outs suggest that if may be difficult to go below 7724, but then we are in a time band of heightened volatility.

Nifty`s break out from 7724 has happened at an 81 degree upward slope. In two leaps, it had taken out both the 45 degree down lines from previous peaks. Unless something very dramatic happens, it is hard to visualise Nifty going below 7724 immediately.7900 and 7850 look likely downside targets.C wave mentioned above should terminate here, if Nifty obliges.
Being in the market, we should of course be prepared for any eventuality and have adequate protection of our positions.
Astrological Picture for the forth coming week...

For the past several weeks, I had been highlighting the destabilising effect of Rahu, when first Mercury was conjunct with her, then Sun , then Venus and then Mercury again when he was retrograde. Now for the last time Mercury will again conjunct with Rahu this week. This can have a negative impact on the market. Mercury is the significator for communication and he is conjunct with Rahu on Oct 29/30. This happens to be the day of FOMC meeting.
Coming to Mercury again, we had observed that when Mercury went retrograde on October 04, no change in trend happened. Nifty continued to drift down when the markets opened after Puja holidays. We have seen that if a trend change does not happen when Mercury goes retrograde, then it will happen during the mid period. Accordingly we saw a bottom at 7724 on October 17.
Another factor was the powerful Sun Pluto followed by Venus Pluto squares which were indicating bottoms. Look at the reversals everywhere. They are quite powerful is it not?
Coming back to Mercury, when he becomes direct, the trend will change again. So a top formation is round the corner. Now add Rahu`s destabilising effect, and we could have a quick down move.
Redeeming factors from a bull`s point of view is that Jupiter is sextile to Rahu and Mercury and trine to Ketu. So the damage will be contained. Also both Ketu and Jupiter are in Mercury stars. Now that Mercury becomes direct, energy flows might improve.
I had also pointed out in a different post, the effect of Solar Eclipse. That also points to a bottom formation after the eclipse. So all told the coming week will be very volatile and the bias is negative.
Mars is going into extreme declination. That is another negative.Mercury also is moving slowly. It has to pick up speed if things have to improve.Sun is in debilitation, in Libra.
Time cycle wise. November 3 to 5 seems to be a bottom formation time..
There are several interesting trends in the coming weeks...
Jupiter is going to square Venus, Sun and Mercury.Mars and Pluto are going to conjunct and then Mars will square Uranus.
All three fast moving planets will have to meet Saturn in Scorpio.
But those can be examined in a separate post.
Stay well and prosperous!