Bank Nifty-for Sept 14 to 18, 2020

Bank Nifty has completed 29 days in the present cycle which comprises of two sub cycles.The first sub cycle was of 10 days duration and the second was of 17 days duration. The third cycle seems to be on, but is very tentative yet.This is because Bank Nifty has weakened considerably. Hopefully  this week, maybe after one or two days, we may see Bank Nifty rising and starting the third sub cycle in full earnest. There may be some more hesitation on Monday and Tuesday, which needs to be watched.  

We may get an idea of how much Bank Nifty has weakened from this comparative chart :

This comparison is done from August 28 to September 11. We know markets corrected on August 31, ( next working day after August 28 ).Money flowed out of Bank Nifty and allied sectors into Nifty IT and Energy, especially Reliance. 

The chart is self explanatory...All the resistances and supports are marked.Weekly Pivots, 20 SMA and the July 22 resistance needs to be convincingly overcome for a true blue move.

If Bank Nifty breaks the 50 SMA support, we may expect a swift move to 21400 levels.

In case Bank Nifty begins to move up, as we expect from the cycles, it could quickly move to 24100 area, which is the medium term point of control for Bank Nifty Futures price.

This is one of the most volatile counters. So trade carefully with adequate protection.  

 

 

Week of September 14 to 18,2020

 This is what we had observed last week: "A swift recovery will indicate that there is strength in bulls. A weakening to 50 SMA will indicate that the underlying strength has begun to shift to the bears. No doubt a recovery cycle will still be there, but I would be very circumspect.If 11111 is breached and Nifty closes below that, then all bets are off. Currently I feel that possibility is a little remote."
Nifty opened at 11359 on Monday ( September 07 ) and gradually moved down to 11185 on  Wednesday  (September 09 ). That is, just 31 points above 50 SMA value of 11154 on September 09.On the same day, 20 SMA was at 11405. So we conclude that Nifty had considerably weakened and moved towards 50 SMA.
As said last week, the next recovery sub-cycle is still on and we saw Nifty recover from 11185 on Wednesday to    close at 11464 on Friday ( September 11 ) above the 20 SMA level of 11427.
So the next  bullish sub cycle has started.But let us bear in mind that since May 26 2020, Nifty had never reacted to the level of 50 SMA. It had always taken support on 20 SMA. That is did so on September 09 tells us that big players have started taking profits from their medium term bull positions.Such weakness is always a precursor to a top formation in not so distant future.
Let us see some past examples...

So we see the foot prints of Knowledgeable selling here...

Look at the first quarter of 2020...

Need not elaborate more, need we?

Let us focus on the  upcoming week..

80% retracement is 11446. Nifty closed above it at 11464.

Fibo extension points to a target of 12118.

Time cycles point to a date of September 21 with a five day orb. So 18 to 28 September is an important time band for a top.

Larger cycle has completed 29 days.

Within that, second sub cycle started on August 14 and ended on September 09.We are on the third sub cycle now.

This cycle will slowly begin to become bullish and most probably may take out 11794 on the upper side.

Cycle may end between September 18 to 28, with a significant top in the making.

This is just our analysis for education purpose. Please do your own research and consultation before taking any financial decisions. 

Let us look at what the planets are indicating..

Ketu is moving out of Sagittarius and Rahu out of Gemini. Ketu in Mercury star of Scorpio could trigger negativity.

This is what happened in 2002, when Ketu entered Scorpio..

Ketu is about to enter Scorpio, post September 20, 2020.So medium term caution is warranted.

Jupiter becomes direct on September 13,2020. Another negative indicator for the market. Jupiter is the biggest Bear of all planets. 

But effects may not manifest instantly. It may take at least 10 days minimum.

Meanwhile there are other short term bullish combinations...

Sun opposes Neptune and Sun trines Pluto. Both have the tendency to pull up the markets to a new crest within the next 10-12 days.

As we mentioned last week, Volatility can only increase from here for a small period. Astro technically the market looks to enter its lag...Trade with absolute caution and discard weak stocks sooner.

All the best.

Week of September 07 to 11, 2020

 What a dramatic week!In one dramatic swoop, six days of uptrend was demolished in Nifty, on August 31. The uptrend rose to a crescendo to 11794 and dramatically reversed....Well the cycles and planets did forewarn us last week....Correction has now completed four days and we see desperate articles all over the net....!

Let us briefly examine what is in store..I say briefly because I intend to keep my posts, short...More of them but shorter.

Current sub-cycle has so far taken 15 trading days and a clear top was made on the 11th day. Sub cycle length is shown in dotted blue lines and the crest time is shown in red lines.Overall current cycle length is shown in black dotted lines. We have completed 24 trading days so far.

So we make some inferences here:

 1. The current sub-cycle is close to ending, possibly within a day or two. This means the present down-move may get arrested and another up-move may start within two or three days. 

2.Current cycle was heavily right translated. This means the next sub cycle also could be a bullish one and possibly the 11794 levels could surpass. We have to wait and see.

3. Last cycle was of 54 days. This cycle has so far done 24 days ( see the black dotted lines ). It is unlikely to be as lengthy as the last cycle. We hazard a guess that this cycle could also be in the 30s category....which brings us to September 18 to 25 as important cycle top dates to watch.

Taking a closer look at the Index,

 Entire rise started from August 14 from a bottom of 11111.That same bottom has 50 SMA approaching. So it is an important support.If Nifty touches this level and reverts, I would still consider as a precursor to a market top in the near future...All significant market tops show a breach and recovery first before a big break down.

It is significant that Nifty did not ever go down to 50 SMA since 27 May 2020. It had breached 20 SMA briefly but has always recovered. Now also, 20 SMA is breached and we have to see if there is a swift recovery from here.

A swift recovery will indicate that there is strength in bulls. A weakening to 50 SMA will indicate that the underlying strength has begun to shift to the bears. No doubt a recovery cycle will still be there, but I would be very circumspect.

If 11111 is breached and Nifty closes below that, then all bets are off. Currently I feel that possibility is a little remote.   

As mentioned last week, three signatures combined together to cause a top last week. Uranus retro effect, Venus opposite Pluto and Venus opposite Jupiter.

Venus opposite Saturn and Sun trining Neptune may precipitate a bottom this week.

By September 09, Sun trines Jupiter, but it is a weak cycle. So the new cycle beginning could be a little tentative. Next week we Sun opposite Neptune and Sun connecting to Pluto by way of a trine. Both are potent combinations and they could pull the market up.

When the market starts tomorrow, Moon will conjunct Uranus, the Master of suddenness! Would be interesting to watch what happens!

And September 09th, the Action Hero, Mars goes retrograde...Will it be advantage Bears by September end? We just have no option but to wait and watch!

Please trade safely. Volatility has increased and it is not going to go away anytime soon.

My pranams to all my Teachers of the past and the present, who are adding value to my existence!    

Week of August 31 to September 04 2020

 We had expected stability to return to the markets last week. Uranus retro also was to positively impact the markets. And we saw that last week and how!

Nifty had opened at 11412 on Monday, August 24th and steadily rose to close at 11647, on August 28th, Friday.A gain of 235 points.

Bank Nifty opened at 22437 and rose throughout the week to close at 24611, a rise of 2174 points. Spectacular, indeed! Obviously the star parivarthana between Jupiter and Venus was helpful! The energy flow was better between these two financial planets because they were also directly opposite to each other on August 25. 

Let us see how things look in the coming week starting on Monday, August 31, 2020...

This is what we had mentioned last week.."Nifty started its new cycle on August 14th and by August 19th, it faced significant gap resistance in the area of 11433 to 11536.Nifty moved up to 11460 but then retreated needing more energy to cross the gap."

Nifty found the energy this past week to vault pass the  11536 mark to close at 11647. 

Where did the energy come from?

Liquidity of course!

See this...

Coming back to the Nifty chart, we see that for every sub cycle from May 18 ( shown in thick blue lines ), the market had topped out within a maximum of 14 days..This is shown in red dotted lines.

So the first sub cycle  of 18 days,topped out on the 14th day 

Second sub cycle of 9 days, topped out on the 8th day...

Third sub cycle of 13 days, topped out on the 12th day...

And so on..

The current sub cycle is already 10 days old. So we can expect a correction within the next few days. Either this coming week or early next week. So have tight stop losses for all new bull positions.

Correction if and when it happens, could be to the 20 day average support line. Currently it is at 11315.

Because of the persistent global liquidity, corrections are generally shallower and rallies are more prolonged...Yet a long position without a stop loss can hurt like hell!

From a top of 12430 on January 20, Nifty has retraced 84% from 23 March bottom of 7511.The next resistance area is between 12152 and 12247.

Fibo extension from July 14th swing low also points out that Nifty is close to 100% extension level of 11671, ( Nifty had closed at 11647 ).The 161.8% extension level is placed at 12145. We have already mentioned that 12152 to 12247 is a significant resistance area.

Compared to Nifty Bank Nifty was more bullish...

Bank Nifty has stiff resistance in the 200 SMA area of 25116 and 261.8 % fibo extension area of 25316 just 523 points away....And Bank Nifty is a very very liquid counter. So take care.

As shown abo

As shown above in Bank Nifty Futures, the last green candle had happened on high volumes...pointing out to bullishness in the counter..

Coming to the constituents of Bank Nifty,

Coming to Nifty constituents, here is a list of best performers inside Nifty....Again it was the Banking sector which was shining..

Here is a list of laggards...inside Nifty. Mostly from IT and FMCG Sector.Their respective weightage are given in brackets for instant understanding.When Reliance and IT Majors like Infy and TCS do not move, Nifty also moves tentatively, even if Bank Nifty fires on all cylinders.

 We can see that Reliance was largely flat throughout August 2020. It is consolidating..

Exactly similar is the case with Nifty IT...A flat consolidating trend throughout August

Earlier when Reliance and IT were firing, it was Bank Nifty which was acting as a dampener. Now it is the other way..Bank Nifty has come out with guns blazing, Reliance and IT Stocks have gone into a shell.

Coming to the market as a whole, here are some sectors which have performed better than Nifty, in August.Stocks from these sectors are likely to grow faster...

Indices which are under-performing Nifty in August 2020

And sectors which are showing signs of cooling off.....

Astrologically speaking,

We are in a time zone where the faster moving planets Mars, Sun, Venus and Mercury are engaging with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn with rather explosive results.

First it was Sun connecting with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn by way of opposition  between July 13 to July 21, 2020. Markets dipped and then rose to new highs by 28/29 July. 

Then it was Mercury connecting with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn between July 30 and August 03.We saw a significant low forming on August 03, when Mercury was connecting to Saturn,

Mars took over on August 03 and connected with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn by way of a square between August 03 and August 24.Market continued to be bullish expect for corrections caused by Uranus retro and Sun Mercury conjunction on August 17. Mars square Saturn effects are expected this week. 

Meanwhile Venus started connecting with oppositions to Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn from August 25th to September 02nd, when Venus will square Saturn.This is pointing to a sub cyclical top, which is further underlined by Sun connecting to Uranus by way of a trine on September 02.We may expect some sudden reaction in the market causing a fall. Mar square Saturn effects also favour a bottom formation.Of course, every fall is a good buying opportunity.

With Jupiter moving towards a final sextile with Neptune on October 12, we may expect bullishness to continue, but with volatile reactions.

Let us flow with the money, but also take care not to lose our Stop losses.

Week of August 24 to 29 2020

 Last week we had expected instability from Ketu because Ketu is Gandantha and several planets 

including Ketu are in Ketu star.

We saw that this week! One day opening gap up and the other day opening gap down.

In the beginning of week of August 24, Moon has moved out to Libra and is in Swathi ruled by Rahu.

Mercury also has moved out of Ketu star.Only Sun and Mars are in Ketu star apart from Ketu himself. So 

we may expect stability to start returning to the market.

The most impressive aspect this week is the square between Mars and Saturn.We are also in the active orb for Uranus retrograde.Any dip in the market this week is a good opportunity to buy for possibly the final bull run this season.

Star parivarthana between Venus and Jupiter also is a good sign for the bulls...possibly after a intra week dip.

Nifty started its new cycle on August 14th and by August 19th, it faced significant gap resistance in the area of 11433 to 11536.Nifty moved up to 11460 but then retreated needing more energy to cross the gap.

See the longer picture here...

Break of this gap will propel Nifty forward..

If the resistances for Nifty go back to February-March of 2020, the resistances for Bank Nifty are more recent.

While Nifty is comfortably above 200 MA, Bank Nifty is still behind its 200 MA. However, Bank Nifty had overtaken Nifty in its momentum by August 17th.Hopefully BN will catch up with Nifty.

Market breadth is good and there is broad participation.

Investing in break out stocks which do so with volume is a strategy which will yield good results.

Some interesting stocks:

Stocks which have broken out of resistance may be purchased on pull backs.

Trade safely, slowly and profitably. 

Week of August 17 to 21, 2020

 Nifty opened the week at 11270, a good 56 points above previous week close of 11214.Moved up to 11337 to 11373 range but met with continued supply and so declined.Bull power decreased on Thursday and by Friday, Nifty declined 122 points and closed at 11178, 36 points less than the close of   August 07th.

After May 22nd, this is the first time we are seeing two red candles on the weekly in three weeks.It is a sign of increasing volatility.

Coming to Daily charts,

Nifty has declined about 50% of the up-move from August 03.Sub cycle wise we have completed 9 days from the cycle bottom of August 03.We may expect this cycle to bottom out early in the coming week.Then the next up-cycle may commence.Once Nifty closes above previous cycle top of 11341, up-move may accelerate.

Technically, Bank Nifty is weaker than Nifty.As shown above, a decline to 21000 may be expected this week and then the next bull cycle commences.23000 needs to be taken out convincingly for Bank Nifty to accelerate its move up.

On August 04, Mars was at a Kendra to Jupiter.On August 13, Mars squared Pluto and on August 24, Mars shall square Saturn.and today evening, Mars will move into Aries, a house owned by Mars.Mars moves into Aries in Navamsa also which makes it very powerful

Mars is in Ketu star. Ketu is also in Ketu star but  in last two degrees,moving towards the exit of Sagittarius.Astrologically such a placement is called Gandantha and makes the planet unstable.

By August 19th, Sun, Mercury and Moon also will be in Ketu star.Mars is already in Ketu star. So the instability of Ketu can get translated to these other planets for a short period of time.

On August 16/17, Sun and Mercury become conjunct and they both trine Mars! So the energy flow could be intense.

Add a Uranus retro also this week on August 17th.Uranus causes sudden upmoves or crashes like the one we saw on Friday.Uranus causes the markets not to respect levels for a brief time. So we need to be cautious.

This could also be a great buying opportunity for the next bull cycle.

Sectors ruled by Mars, such as   Construction, Engineering, Defense and Metals should shine after the hiccup caused by Ketu.

Since Rahu is also in Mars star, we may expect Chemical Industry also to do well.

This is a list of ten companies which have appreciated the most against Nifty since June 12.Check the liquidity and fundamentals before investing. The move has several more legs, since Rahu will be spending more time in Mars star.

That is all for this week folks! Have A Great Week!

Week of August 10 to 14 2020

 Nifty had declined further on Monday August 03rd and formed a low at 10882.25, which was what we had expected last week. Nifty had taken support near 200 day SMA ( 10858 ) and then began to move up throughout last week and closed on 11214.05 on Friday.

We have seen hesitant starts for the past sub cycles and cycles in the current segment from March 2020.True to form, after one bull candle on Tuesday, Nifty has been hesitantly moving forward.

Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that the cycle from May 18, is completed on August 03rd, after 54 trading days, which is very close to a Fibo number 55.Confirmation comes only when Nifty takes out the previous cycle high of 11341.40. In the new sub cycle, Nifty has completed 5 days so far. Nifty may move up quickly early this week or may bob around for a day or two and then start to move. Either ways an up move is on the cards.

This up- cycle maybe more volatile  than the other two. There are several astro pointers. One on August 17th is Mercury catching up with the Sun and Mars squaring Saturn and Pluto.One more major planet, Uranus goes retrograde on August 15th. September sees Mars going retro and Jupiter and Saturn becoming Direct,.

Critical for Nifty moving up is Bank Nifty, which has a weightage of 22.96 % as of July 31, in Nifty.

 

 While Nifty`s other constituents have been moving up, Bank Nifty has been moving sideways. It is at the control price of 21770.

On the contrary Reliance and Nifty IT Stocks with a combined weightage of more than 30% have been batting for the bulls.

We all know about Reliance and why it is an out performer and why it will continue to outshine others.

Let us look at IT alone more closely.

It is imperative to hold some IT Stocks in our portfolio!.

Another interesting observation in this rally is the participation of Mid cap and small cap companies.

Summing up we expect Nifty to move up, after some small hesitation and take out the recent previous high of 11341...

Have a safe trading and safe existence!