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Sunday, August 9, 2020

Week of August 10 to 14 2020

 Nifty had declined further on Monday August 03rd and formed a low at 10882.25, which was what we had expected last week. Nifty had taken support near 200 day SMA ( 10858 ) and then began to move up throughout last week and closed on 11214.05 on Friday.

We have seen hesitant starts for the past sub cycles and cycles in the current segment from March 2020.True to form, after one bull candle on Tuesday, Nifty has been hesitantly moving forward.

Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that the cycle from May 18, is completed on August 03rd, after 54 trading days, which is very close to a Fibo number 55.Confirmation comes only when Nifty takes out the previous cycle high of 11341.40. In the new sub cycle, Nifty has completed 5 days so far. Nifty may move up quickly early this week or may bob around for a day or two and then start to move. Either ways an up move is on the cards.

This up- cycle maybe more volatile  than the other two. There are several astro pointers. One on August 17th is Mercury catching up with the Sun and Mars squaring Saturn and Pluto.One more major planet, Uranus goes retrograde on August 15th. September sees Mars going retro and Jupiter and Saturn becoming Direct,.

Critical for Nifty moving up is Bank Nifty, which has a weightage of 22.96 % as of July 31, in Nifty.

 

 While Nifty`s other constituents have been moving up, Bank Nifty has been moving sideways. It is at the control price of 21770.

On the contrary Reliance and Nifty IT Stocks with a combined weightage of more than 30% have been batting for the bulls.

We all know about Reliance and why it is an out performer and why it will continue to outshine others.

Let us look at IT alone more closely.

It is imperative to hold some IT Stocks in our portfolio!.

Another interesting observation in this rally is the participation of Mid cap and small cap companies.

Summing up we expect Nifty to move up, after some small hesitation and take out the recent previous high of 11341...

Have a safe trading and safe existence!

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Glad to see this blog active again ! Thank u !

Tekkiesuresh said...

You are Welcome!