Week of August 10 to 14 2020

 Nifty had declined further on Monday August 03rd and formed a low at 10882.25, which was what we had expected last week. Nifty had taken support near 200 day SMA ( 10858 ) and then began to move up throughout last week and closed on 11214.05 on Friday.

We have seen hesitant starts for the past sub cycles and cycles in the current segment from March 2020.True to form, after one bull candle on Tuesday, Nifty has been hesitantly moving forward.

Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that the cycle from May 18, is completed on August 03rd, after 54 trading days, which is very close to a Fibo number 55.Confirmation comes only when Nifty takes out the previous cycle high of 11341.40. In the new sub cycle, Nifty has completed 5 days so far. Nifty may move up quickly early this week or may bob around for a day or two and then start to move. Either ways an up move is on the cards.

This up- cycle maybe more volatile  than the other two. There are several astro pointers. One on August 17th is Mercury catching up with the Sun and Mars squaring Saturn and Pluto.One more major planet, Uranus goes retrograde on August 15th. September sees Mars going retro and Jupiter and Saturn becoming Direct,.

Critical for Nifty moving up is Bank Nifty, which has a weightage of 22.96 % as of July 31, in Nifty.

 

 While Nifty`s other constituents have been moving up, Bank Nifty has been moving sideways. It is at the control price of 21770.

On the contrary Reliance and Nifty IT Stocks with a combined weightage of more than 30% have been batting for the bulls.

We all know about Reliance and why it is an out performer and why it will continue to outshine others.

Let us look at IT alone more closely.

It is imperative to hold some IT Stocks in our portfolio!.

Another interesting observation in this rally is the participation of Mid cap and small cap companies.

Summing up we expect Nifty to move up, after some small hesitation and take out the recent previous high of 11341...

Have a safe trading and safe existence!

Week of August 03 to 07, 2020

Last week, between July 27 to 31, 2020, Nifty hit a high of 11341 on Wednesday and has been declining since then.We had expected the market to improve by about 250 points and then show some correction. Nifty did exactly that.From a low on July 24th of 11090 Nifty moved up to 11341 and has been declining.

Nifty cycle has now completed 53 days ( quite a stretch! ) and the ongoing sub cycle has completed 13 days. While Nifty has seen some decline, it is hardly sufficient to conclude a cycle. Our take is that some more decline is in the offing this week.

If 11037 is breached this week, we can expect support between 10654 to 10437.

 Nifty Fibo extensions are also pointing out that this week is an important one for the markets.

By and large Nifty has been maintaining its movements along the control price ( shown by the red arrow ) and has not shown any decisive weakness as yet.

On the contrary, Bank Nifty has slipped out of the value zone after playing below the control price for a very long time.This weakness will have a bearing on Nifty.

There are several astro aspects crowding in on the week.
Mercury is following Sun in opposing Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn.
Mars and Mercury have completed their angular aspect for the third time.
August 03 also happens to be the orb date for triple opposition of Sun with Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn.
Sun squaring Uranus mostly point to a top formation. The question is, has the short term top already formed on July 29? We will know this week!
Finally Venus meets Rahu in Mars star, on August 05th.Once Venus is free of Rahu, markets could look up.
So, we expect Nifty to be bullish in August with some volatility. In the near term, some more correction is expected before Nifty starts another bullish cycle.

Stay safe, yet be productive!

Week of July 27 to 31

Further to a strong closing on Friday July 17th, at 10901, Nifty opened with a gap up on Monday at 10999 and kept moving up with a gap on Tuesday as well.Nifty formed a new range between 11056 and 11239 in which it kept trading from Tuesday to Friday. For the week, Nifty made a high of 11239 and closed at 11194, inside the new range and a tad lower than 11200.
It was powered by Reliance which moved from 1899 to a high of 2163, a move of 264 points in just 5 trading days!

Nifty has now completed 48 days in the current cycle.It has now extended by 50% over the cycle times of previous two cycles.Fifth sub-cycle has already completed 8 days and is very much in the topping zone.

Strong weekly closing and PCR indicate some more up move but the head room is limited to another 200 to 250 points maximum.Market breadth had started turning negative and an important constituent like Bank Nifty declined by 421 points on Friday.Most FNO counters saw long unwinding and Reliance was propped up mainly by heavy short covering.

We had mentioned about the triple oppositions of Sun-Pluto, Sun-Jupiter and  Sun-Saturn in the last two weeks. We can see here how the world indices had reacted to the astro aspects. 

The Dow had seen two back to back negative days in the last week.

And so does Nasdaq.

German DAX had fallen with a gap...

Despite a roaring bull move, look at the Chinese Index!

 And the Australian Index also is reacting in sympathy...

Our Nifty is holding itself high...Such divergence is a sign of caution...

Fibo time cycles are also advocating caution...

We continue to be bullish on Nifty but after a correction. So our expectation is take profits sooner and have cash in the sidelines for another good buying opportunity.

Have a great week ahead!

Week of July 20 to 27, 2020

Last week,  before July 13th, we had made two observations.
1. Volatility is going to increase. 2. Nifty has stiff resistance overhead.
Nifty opened at 10851 on July 13th, and went down to 10563 in the next three days and in the final two days ( July 16th and 17th ) moved up to a high of 10933 before closing the week at 10901.70.
Nifty closes at its highest post March 23, 2020.
Coming to cycles, Nifty has completed 43 days in its current cycle.
The fifth sub cycle ( anticipating this to be the last in this cycle ) has started upwards and completed three days.It has taken out the last sub cycle high of 10894.So immediately Nifty looks to move higher.
However there are several overhead resistances to be overcome.
Last week we had completed the oppositions of Sun and Jupiter as well as Sun and Pluto. On Monday, July 20th, we have the last of the trio, Sun opposite Saturn, the most stressful of the lot.
Soon Moon will join Sun in Cancer to oppose Saturn.
Things are never quiet in Cancer, especially if Saturn is transiting in Capricorn opposing it.This will add to the volatility of the markets.
Venus which was hitherto quite slow shall start picking up speed till it reaches its maximum by January 26, 2021.  Venus is the queen of Taurus and she always likes excitement like her neighbor, Mercury.
Another factor to consider is the Inter-market Divergence between indices...

We find Nifty and Dow Jones have gone up but Shanghai Index and Nasdaq have dropped.Such divergences are always a sign of caution.

Saturn may possibly bring in a reality check this week. If prices drop for a few days it is a great opportunity to buy because the world is still immersed in Neptunian fantasies !
Play safe! Stay Safe!

Week beginning July 13 to 17 2020

Last week ( July 06 to 10 ) markets did not particularly go anywhere.
Nifty opened the week at 10723, made a high of 10847, low of 10676 and closed at 10768. It was like running on a treadmill!
The uptrend became flattened a little. But for the effervescent Reliance and the Bajaj Finance twins, Nifty chart would have looked a lot uglier.
Nifty has completed 38 days in its second cycle which commenced on May 18th.
As discussed  during last week, we are entering an important cycle top zone.
Last week we had some bullish aspects which had pulled up the markets. Sun translating the energies of Jupiter and Pluto also acts as a magnet.
This week we are in the orb of Venus Direct and triple witching of the eclipses.
We also start the week with Mercury turning Direct and moving away from the clutches of Rahu.
Also this week we have the triple opposition combination of Sun opposing Retro Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn.
So volatility is going to increase. More sharp moves are possible.
Nifty is also heading into a big band of resistance overhead.
10635 to 11183 is a stiff block to negotiate.

Despite this our take is that the bull has not finished its business. The next cycle also is going to be a bullish one. So any shake outs can be a great opportunity to buy some quick movers.

We have been so preoccupied with Nifty. So how do the moving parts of Nify function?

These stocks have been performing better than Nifty since June 12, 2020, where we had the previous market bottom.While Bajaj twins had moved up in excess of 20% in this last leg, Reliance with a hefty weightage had moved up 18.21% and was primarily responsible for Nifty`s up move. 

This is the second set of Nifty companies which moved along with Nifty`s appreciation of 7.9% since June 12.

The above list of companies are marginally under-performing and slightly dragging Nifty.

This last set of companies are dragging the Nifty down!

Interesting times are coming especially for those who love two may movements. 

All the best. Be safe!

For the week July 06 to July 10 2020

The cycle which started from May 18th has now completed 33 days. Previous cycle from March 23 to May 18th was for 34 days.So we are entering a cycle topping zone.
We are in the fourth sub cycle inside the larger daily cycle. This sub cycle has also completed 6 days and is ripe for a reversal.
Sub cycle bottom is 10180. That is to be seen as a first support this week.
Mars in Pisces is going to be angular to Mercury by July 08.That is just two days away. So a reversal is to be expected.
However there are other combinations which we expect to pull the market up...One of them is the powerful opposition of Sun to Retro Jupiter on July 14th and then to Retro Pluto on July 15th. This we expect will pull the market up from an expected low this week into next week.
Also Sun has now gotten in front of Mercury in Gemini. This also augurs well for the market. Only spoilsport is Rahu in Gemini!
Same is the case with Retro Jupiter. It`s sojourn into Sagittarius is welcome news for bulls, but Pluto also is tagging along which is not so good news!
So some reduction in bull fervour is seen. The three eclipses whicxh have finally ended on June 05 also may have say in this situation.
These two planets have already met for the second time this year and they are slated to meet again on November 12, 2020.
There will be a seeming return to normalcy in this intervening period as Jupiter moves away from Pluto in a retro fashion. Markets also may rise in the next cycle but once Jupiter turns direct and approaches Pluto again, trouble may start once more.
So expecting a smaller correction this week and a rise into next week in a new sub-cycle...Next week is a different story awaiting to unfold!

To all my Gurus...of the past and in the present...Thank you for leading me to light and continuously shining on me...despite adversities...Light of Guru`s Knowledge will banish all darkness.

For the Week of June 29 to July 03, 2020

In our observations last week, we had expected Nifty to move up in the week of June 22 to 26.We had also observed that the up-move is getting stretched.Since Mercury retrograde period was operational we had decided to keep booking profits and guard against false moves.
From 10277, Nifty had moved up to 10533 before declining and closing the week at 10383.
Interestingly, there has been an Inter-market Divergence between Nifty and the Dow as seen from the bottom of May 18 onwards:

Nifty has advanced nearly 16% to the Dow.
FII flows has been good enough. One reason could be the Dollar weakness from 103 to 97.

. After a sustained bout of buying between June 17 and 24, we see some selling only on the last two days of previous week, on June 25 and 26.
So how does the coming week look like?
To arrive at a proper conclusion, let us look at some long term cycles.

Nifty has been guided by 4 year cycles which have sometimes expanded to 60 months or contracted to just 19 months.

We are just 3 months into the new cycle and so on a monthly cycle level, there is some more bullishness left.As mentioned on the chart, the current cycle may go up to September 2020 with a top anywhere between July and September 2020.

If we look at the previous severe decline in prices, in 2008, a 36 month up move was corrected in 9 months.

In 2020, price decline of just two months corrected prices seen 46 months ago.So the price decline justifies a significant bottom categorization. In other words, this 2020 bottom may stay put for quite a while.

So while the monthly cycle looks bullish, the weekly looks like a correction is in the offing.With 5 weeks of upmove already completed, a breather is in fact quite healthy.

On the daily cycle levels also we look to see a correction into July 06 to 09.
Several astro aspects are also coming into play right now.
Venus has turned Direct and Mercury completes its mid point of retrograde on June 30 /July 01.Mars is aspected by Retrograde Saturn and Jupiter moves back into Sagittarius.
After a dip this week, Nifty could attempt to move up to 10500 and then start a bigger correction.

  Classical patterns and Bearish Divergence on RSI also point out the same...

Look to 10030 levels first and then 9900 levels.
Our expectation is that post a good correction Nifty is poised  to move higher in July 2020.

God Bless and stay safe!

For the week of June 22 to June 26 2020

Last week we noticed that Nifty had completed two cycles and that the next sub cycle could be bullish as well. We had postulated that this sub cycle, in due course,  may move up to 10500-10600.
Nifty opened the week at 9919 and after making a low of 9726 moved up strongly to make a high of 10272 before closing at 10244.During the previous sub cycle Nifty had hit a high of 10326.75.That is the immediate overhead resistance for Nifty.

As can be seen the current cycle has now consumed 23 days.Previous cycle was 34 days, low to low.We are in the 4th sub cycle which has already consumed 6 days.
We are also moving into a denser sky this week.
Mercury had already turned retrograde.
We had just completed an annular Solar Eclipse, which actually cast its shadow across Ladaak.
During this eclipse, Sun and Rahu were both aspected by Mars.By June 28th this Mars will receive a powerful malefic aspect from Saturn.
Venus will finally turn Direct on June 25, 2020.
With Neptune going retro on June 23, between June 23 and 25, six planets shall be retrograde.
Jupiter also slowly moves towards its conjunction with Pluto.India-China border dispute, uncontrolled COVID, fear of a second way and riots in America are all getting high lighted.
Our expectation for the market is it could be neutral to down for the first two days of the coming week and then  move up once again as its fifth sub cycle.Up move is now getting stretched a little and soon  probably from next week, we may see corrections setting in.
Caution is the word. Mercury is retrograde. So guard against fake moves which can eat up your stop losses. Keep booking profits or else they may quickly vanish!

Regarding Bank Nifty,

it is in a wide trading range. Immediate overhead resistance is 21807.4 and the next is 21967. Supports are at 20939 and 19456 for the week.
Since May 18, Bank Nifty has been performing better than Nifty which is a good sign for Nifty Bulls.

BN has been growing at 21.42% versus 16.11% for Nifty.

Some of the sector indices which have done well or average....

Good to average performers...

Whether this up-move since March 23 2020 is a bear rally or the first leg of a new bull market, it has sure been broad based with lot of stocks participating.
Have a great week!

Republic of China

This is the chart of Republic of China on the left and the current transit of planets on the China chart, on the right.
Both the Ascendant and Moon are in Capricorn in the natal chart. The natal Ascendant and Moon are heavily pressurized by the malefic trio of Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto.Normally benefic Jupiter is a pure 12th lord for China and hence more malefic than benefic.
Problems have started from November 04, 2019, when Jupiter joined Ketu, Saturn and Pluto in the 12th.They intensified from February 07, 2020,when Mars also joined Ketu and others in Sagittarius.
On May 10th, something interesting happened. Saturn the powerful ascendant lord for China turned retrograde at less than a degree and this may lead to unstable thinking and wrong moves.
Jupiter and Saturn will conjunct on December 20, just within 2 degrees of the Ascendant.
Jupiter is in fact translating transformation vibes between Pluto and Saturn and so we may expect China to change in ways we cannot imagine. Revolutionary issues will crop up  inside China.
Seventh house is dominated by a debilitated Mars in conjunction with Pluto. This combo aspects both Ascendant and the Moon. So the underlying thinking has always been, that " With brute force and power we can break down our adversaries.". That coulkd well undergo a change between 2020 and 2025. By 2025 and 2026, Pluto will conjunct the Ascendant and Pluto is a merciless transformer.
Solar and Lunar Eclipses in the sixth house ( conflict house ) are probably influencing  the current
situation. We hope to see good  improvement after the eclipses.( June 21 and July 05 ).

For the week of June 15 to 19, 2020

In our last week`s post, we had expected the markets to strongly move up towards the Sun square Mars date of June 08 and then be subject to profit taking.Nifty hit a high of 10326.75 on June 08 and since reacted down to reach a low of 9544 on Friday before closing at 9972.70 for the week.
We have seen first of three eclipses so far...
The Penumbral Lunar Eclipse of June 05..Let me reproduce what we had said about this eclipse  in our post of " June 01 to June 05 2020".

As expected markets reduced their bullishness especially on June 12.This low of June 12 also coincides with the Mars-Neptune conjunction of June 13, 2020.Interesting to also note that this steep sell off happens one day after Sun and   Mercury both reached extreme declinations on June 11, 2020.

So what next?

There is never any lack of excitement in the skies!

This week we shall see the intensification of retrogrades.By June 18 this week, at 10:28:50 hrs, Mercury goes retrograde in Jupiter star in Gemini.With this the number of planets which go retrograde increases to 5: Pluto, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and by 18th, Mercury. 

And the baton now changes, from Mars to Sun.

Sun enters into Gemini on June 14, 2020.Any sub cycle which bottoms out close to a Sun ingress into Gemini generally gives rise to another bullish subcycle or cycle.

Sun also is unhurriedly moving towards into rendezvous with Rahu on June 21.( Solar Eclipse maximum at 12.10 pm ).Exact Sun Rahu conjunction is on June 20 at 06.39 am.

Cycle wise, the current bullish cycle is 18 days old and we have likely completed two legs.Since both legs were right translated, we expect the next sub cycle also to be bullish.Likely sub cycle top targets can be 10500 to 10615.

Surprises and reversals to be expected. After all we are passing through unstable times. Protect your positions with adequate stop-losses.