Week of May 26 to 29 2020

Last week we had expected bullishness this past week of May 18 to 22. While other markets turned bullish, Nifty chose to fall 313 points on May 18 and spent rest of the week recovering from the fall.
Let us look at some charts..

 Bank Nifty`s weakness has been pulling Nifty down consistently, because of the heavy weightage of banks in Nifty Index Even after 38 trading days we are yet to see a meaningful cycle bottom. This cycle bottom will also be the turning point for Nifty.We may reasonably expect to see a cycle bottom from Bank Nifty this week.

Topmost is Nasdaq 100, Candlestick is Dow, The next red line is Nifty and the bottom red line is Bank Nifty. We see heavy divergence based on the constituents of the Indices.

For our Nifty, recovery last week was not very convincing. Immediately taking out the Secondary top of last cycle, that of 9584 looks like a tall order. So we expect a rise from present position and a fall into June  01 or June 02 from which a meaningful rise should start.If the rise continues beyond May 26, then the next cycle belongs to bulls. 

Mercury Conjunct Venus is a long term indicator of change of acceleration in the markets.Hopefully low of May 18, is the low for this conjunction.

We are going through a slightly tricky phase. So have your protections on please.

Transformation

One of the major transformations which influenced human beings collectively was the Industrial Revolution. It was the beginning of the rise of applied scientific power in terms of inventions based on discoveries.

First Industrial Revolution, fueled by the game-changing use of steam power was the transition to new manufacturing processes in Europe and the US in the period from about 1762 to 1835.

Goods that had once been painstakingly crafted by hand started to be produced in mass quantities by machines in factories, thanks to the introduction of new machines and techniques in textiles, iron making and other industries.

The Industrial Revolution transformed largely rural, agrarian societies in Europe and America into industrialized, urban ones.

First Industrial Revolution marked the rise of the West as a dominant political and economic power. Trade Development and phenomenal increase of commerce were among the major causes of the Industrial Revolution.

The Industrial Revolution began in Great Britain, and many of the technological innovations were of British origin. By the mid-18th century Britain became the world's leading commercial nation, controlling a global trading empire with colonies in North America and the Caribbean.

Britain established major commercial, political and military presence in the Indian subcontinent, through the activities of the East India Company.

The Industrial Revolution marks a major turning point in history; almost every aspect of daily life was influenced in some way. In particular, average income and population began to exhibit unprecedented sustained growth.

But things did not come easy. There was widespread resistance, fear and confusion among people before they accepted the change. Mainly because change was inevitable.

" Ugh! Ugly monstrous contraptions! Sure they won`t last..Give me a horse any day!"

This was the common attitude!
It is interesting to note where Pluto and other trans Saturnian planets transited in the skies when such a transformation happened.

We find Pluto in Sagittarius angular to Uranus and Saturn and trine with Jupiter, Rahu and Neptune.

“Pluto a freeing and opening force is always a pattern disrupter. Pluto causes old societal structures and ways of life to crumble so that more useful forms may appear.

Pluto is the Energy of Lord Shiva who destroys so that new forms manifest.

 Pluto is independent, individual, and autonomous; an extremist, isolationist and loner; a revolutionist, and is non-accepting of limiting conditions.”

Pluto  when connected to the other slow movers, brings up fears associated with survival, death and transformation; the fear to be alone, to let go, to release or to let die.

Pluto brings attention to our attitude and issues we hold about authoritarian control and use of power, how we attempt to control and how we respond to such control

Transiting Pluto is often associated  separation and deaths. Pluto actually makes us stop and check our premises, our belief systems and our attitudes..Ultimately we begin to change inside and start to accept new realities. This leads to new relationships, births, and new beginnings

 Things that are not working for us, whether they are thought processes or lifestyles, undergo a transformation. 

Often Intense Fear manifests  itself at the beginning of a challenging Pluto transit. How well we collectively handle that Fear is a key to survival and prosperity during Pluto highlighted times.  

Wild Uranus energy was held in check by Saturn and systematically applied to the World at large to bring in real time transformation.

Yet Uranus and Pluto overcame the traditional structure of sticking to agriculture and opened up a new frontier called as Industrial revolution.

With Saturn squaring Pluto, the transformation was never easy and those who did not adapt fell by the wayside.

We also see Rahu, the classic obsessor, who magnifies the energy of Jupiter and flows it freely to Pluto. Transformation becomes an obsession magnified many times.

The Second Industrial Revolution  began in the middle of 19th century (1850-1970). It was a period of growth for pre-existing industries and expansion of new ones; such as the steel, oil and electricity fields. Development of new technologies led to introduction of two things that would change the world: public transport and planes.

Faraday started playing with the idea of electricity. Then, a few years later, Edison and Swan perfected their design of a light-bulb which was practical for home use.

in 1876,Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. Later on, in 1901, Marconi sent radio waves across the Atlantic Ocean for the first time.

The internal combustion engine, which powers cars today, was invented during the Second Industrial Revolution.
Here is a sample picture of the sky of those times:

Pluto, the harbinger of transformation and Uranus, the Master of Creativity, Innovation  and unexpected changes are in Cardinal signs, Aries and Cancer respectively.In the beginning years we also see Saturn, the Master of processes being eclipsed and Jupiter joining Rahu to expand the uncertainty. Another planet of nebulousness and uncertainty, Neptune is square Saturn.
When everything changes around you quickly, uncertainty becomes a constant!

Another great catalyst of change were the World Wars, especially the Second World War.
 Hitler’s invasion of Poland on First September 1939 forced Great Britain and France to declare war on Germany, and World War II had begun. Over the next six years, entire world was in conflict. More land and property around the globe were destroyed than  in any previous war. Among the estimated 45-60 million people killed were 6 million Jews murdered in Nazi concentration camps as part of Hitler’s diabolical “Final Solution,” now known as the Holocaust.
Destructive Pluto at its best...
Here is a picture of the beginning of World War 2...

Pluto in Cancer ( cardinal ) being squared by Uranus and Saturn in Aries ( Cardinal ). A deadly combination.Misplaced euphoria of the "Thousand Year Reich" is seen in the trine between Uranus and Neptune.Jupiter in a triangle with Pluto is exaggeration of the destruction which is to follow. Saturn and Ketu in Ketu star, Pluto in Saturn star,Uranus and Neptune in Sun star, underlining the political nature of the massive conflict.
 Rahu and Ketu conjoined with Saturn  manifest Fear in all it`s avatar...Fear for Life, for Loved Ones and of the Future itself.  Other than Neptune, all other Long term planets are in a waning cycle to Pluto.
History is always interesting only when it correlates to our present times.
So let us look at the skies during recent times:

Times.com reports on the beginnings of CORONAVIRUS Infections..

With what we know of the incubatory nature of the viral infection we may safely conclude that the virus crossed over enmasse to humans in November 2019, and manifested in December 2019 as COVID 19.
Transit chart shows Saturn powerfully aspecting Neptune with its third aspect by November 08, 2019.
Saturn is highly malefic because of its conjunction with the Ketu-Rahu axis.Both of them are in Sagittarius which has a tendency to inflate effects. To add to the fire, Jupiter, the owner of Sagittarius has just entered the scene.Of course, Pluto, the legendary transformer is present in Sagittarius in Sun star..Governments are soon to go into a tizzy over the tiny virus!
Mars aspect from Mercury sign-Chithirai star ( star of thieves ) to Pluto tells us that this infection will be hyped by media  for political gains and there are fraudulent angles unknown to public about the whole infection story.

By the end of March 2020, "Lock down" has become a global phenomenon.
Once again, the deadly Capricorn-Cancer Axis has been highlighted.
Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter all in Capricorn squaring Uranus in Aries, another Cardinal sign.
And these aspects are unfolding during a very destructive Kaala Sarpa Dosha, with Ketu in powerful Ketu star and Rahu in powerful Rahu star. Malefics have become deadly. 
Destruction has started in right earnest. 
First the Stock markets were destroyed, with the biggest plunge in history.
Then livelihoods and jobs are being destroyed. 
What is more, free movements have been destroyed succeeding the destruction of trust among fellow human beings. 
And there is no end to uncertainty.
Hell, we still do not know the full nature of this virus! Has it mutated? What really are the symptoms?
However  all is not lost yet!
Some redeeming factors...
1. Kaala Sarpa Dosha will end on May 29, 2020. 
2. Rahu-Ketu axis begins to move away from Sagittarius-Gemini where all the action started.
3. Slow moving Neptune, the mistress of Pandemics is involved only in the beginning and not thereafter. ( During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, Neptune was conjunct Saturn in deadly Cancer. ) 
4. Saturn begins a historical waxing phase with Pluto, a phase connected with growth, after the transformation.
5. Since the take-off stage is from Capricorn, a phase similar to  Uttarayana ( unlike from Cancer, where it is a descend into Darkness ) things should improve gradually from hereon.

Just one hiccup..that is the prolonged Saturn Uranus Square dance from November 2020..with exact square dates of February 17, June 14 2021 and December 24 2021. So we expect the real effect of the depressive economic conditions to begin manifesting in 2021. Only after 2021, it seems, can a true recovery be possible.

BankNifty

Bank Nifty which was a positive contributor to Nifty has fallen on hard times of late..as can be seen in the chart above. This is now a drag on the Nifty..If BN improves, Nifty also will improve.

See how much SBIN has contributed to the sluggishness in BankNifty ?
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have a combined weightage of 52%..So if they move, Nifty will also move..

Week of May 18 to 22 2020

What a week! 20 lakh crore lure did not impress Nifty!
With Pluto, Jupiter and Saturn ganging up, the World  still has the smell of blood on its hands. All the perfumes of Arabia  ( read it as stimulus ) couldn't make  the World`s little hand smell better...
Curiously the Government chose a highly retrograde period ( Saturn, Venus and Jupiter all commencing retrograde stations between May 12 to 15 ) to announce its eco package.
Two of the planets Venus and Jupiter are specifically connected to Tall Finances!
The strong bear rally upto April 30 went into a subdued mood with a sideways downtrend with a negative bias. 
Bulls have not given up yet..They did not allow Nifty to break 9000..
This week it looks like Bulls may have the upper hand and push the Index into the 9300 to 9500 zone again.
Sun,Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto are all in Sun star.
Rahu and Venus are in Mars star.
Certainly there is no shortage of fire power!
Anyways let us have proper stop-losses for our positions..With so many retrogrades in the air, safety should be the first concern.
Sun has now trined Pluto and Jupiter. By May 22 2020, it would complete its trine with Saturn.
Then it maybe a different ball game altogether.
  

Nifty Weekly as on May 11, 2020

Nifty had bounced 49.59 % to 9889.05 before deciding to pull back.On a weekly scale, this is just the second wave, if counted from the bottom of 7511.
We are just in the third week of the pull back. We can see that the pull back has mostly occurred on profit taking and lack of positive news. Contrarily,  any negative news can pull the market down, more.
23.6 % level of the full down move and 50% of the counter up-move are in the region of 8700.. That may be a logical level in case of a down move.
Interestingly, the 38.20% of the down move and the  23.60% of the counter up-move are in the 9327-9390 levels, which were levels of dog fights recently!
Time wise week ending June 12 or the week beginning June 15 appear to be crucial.

Some Comparisons

Nifty versus Nasdaq 100 

NASDAQ 100 is just 409 points away from its highest close.Now we know where International Funds are flowing into!
Let us compare Nifty`s sister Indices....

 Nifty Pharma, Energy , Infra and IT are currently doing better than Nifty 50 companies.This is from the low of March 2020.

Astro Technicals for Week of May 11 to 15 2020

It pays to remember that we are in a Jupiter-Pluto conjunction period which will last from April to November 2020.

April 04: Jupiter-Pluto conjunction (Both Direct) at less than 1 * of Capricorn.

Pandemic related Fear and confusion reach great levels.

June 30:  Jupiter-Pluto conjunction (Both Retrograde) at less than 1*of Capricorn. Saturn, dispositor of Pluto and Jupiter is also retrograde and so are Neptune and Mercury.. Complacency is likely to set in. Our leaders may claim that coronavirus is all conquered and so would a section of our society. But Jupiter-Pluto conjunctions are asking us to follow the new social norms and attitudes humbly. With Kala Sarpa Dosha also subsiding by May 29, tendency to ignore the pandemic could be strong.

November 12, 2020: Pluto and Jupiter conjunct in Sagittarius. A time period which could be difficult if we had all been complacent during May-June 2020?

Let us examine the markets with this back ground.

Just looking at the Lunations we expected the markets to make an isolated high on 08^th May. Nifty touched 176 points higher ( at 9382.65 ) than the previous day`s close of 9199.05 but gradually declined to close at 9251.50 ( + 52.45 points ).

Movement of Moon from Poorvashada on May 11^th to Satabhista on May 15^th points to a declining trend, but with Saturn, Venus and Jupiter getting retrograde,  ( 12^th May to 15^th May )there could be a pull up effect also in the same period before a decline next week. One another powerful aspect is the square between Neptune and Venus.

Anyhow after May 15^th Nifty favours a decline. The unusual exuberance expressed now is going to have a reality check.

Our take..9340 to 9400 is a good near term shorting zone for Nifty.Do follow the technical signals first.

Nifty-Today`s Tug of War ( May 06 2020 )

Today the fight was  between 9258 and 9344. Bulls wanted a closing above 9344.And bears wished to pull it below 9258 and take it close to 9100.They nearly succeeded in pulling the index down and somehow  bulls managed to bring it into the 9258 -9344 zone. Still it was advantage sellers even though Nifty closed 65.30 points in the positive.   

Let us look at the 14 Day Rsis for various time periods.

5 Min RSI is in positive zone at 50.89

15 Min Rsi is also positive at 47.93

60 min Rsi is mildly positive at 41.83

Day RSI is at 49.59 -positive

Week RSI at 37.91 is negative

Monthly RSI at 39.88 is also negative

So, more headwinds in larger time frames.

With Sun in Aries in Bharani, Venus in Mars star in Taurus, and Moon coming to Scorpio, market could form a minor top by the later half of Friday, May 08th and start to decline again...Most probably this could coincide with the declining effects caused because of Saturn, Venus and Jupiter turning retrograde between May 12 to 15th.

2020 A Watershed Year

The above two images symbolize 2020 for us.  Planet Pluto and Corona virus.

Pluto represents Transformation.Its energy is extremely potent and powerful: Pluto represents the underbelly of emotions, what lies beneath the surface, and the subconscious mind.Pluto brings about transformation by merciless destruction, transformation which is essential in our growth path.
Pluto entered Uttarshada constellation on October 21, 2019 and was joined by Sun on December 26, 2019.
Planetary energy gathers strength only when more planets connect by way of conjunctions or aspects.
Along-with Pluto, Ketu, Jupiter, Sun, Moon and Mercury were also in fiery, action oriented  Sagittarius, in December 2019. We can say these other planets were eclipsed by the Rahu- Ketu axis. Ketu is the indicator of natural calamities, violent actions or events, fears and accidents. It also rules the poor and isolated That was the time, Chinese doctors were grappling with an unknown viral disease which was later named as COVID- 19.
Uttarshada is ruled by Sun which symbolizes the ruling class. So transformation was indicated, through the agency of the ruling class ( Governments ) with widespread fear as the catalyst.
Pluto entered Capricorn on February 22, 2020.Markets all over the world started tanking at the same time.Which was nothing but a manifestation of the inner, all pervading fear.
Saturn had already moved into Capricorn by January 24, 2020 still in Uttarshada.
Mars enters Capricorn Uttarshada constellation on March 22, 2020 and is closely conjunct Pluto.
Jupiter enters Capricorn Uttarshada constellation on March 29,2020. Sun was in Pisces in Saturn star in parivarthana. Since all three planets had moved away from the Sagi-Gemini nodal axis, fear lessened and Governments promised action by way of massive stimulus. Markets formed a trough and began to rise again.
But since Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter are all placed in Uttarshada in Capricorn, the woes and problems faced by the Governments and by people through Governmental actions are not going away in a hurry.
In fact these planets are staying in this constellation for a while.
Pluto retrogrades in Capricorn-Uttarshada on April 26, 2020.And moves into Sagittarius-Uttarshada on July 03, 2020. ( Unfinished business regarding far reaching transformations in progress and development.).Becomes Direct in the same constellation in Sagi on October 05, 2020.Re-enters Capricorn on December 28, 2020.And leaves Uttarshada constellation only by February 15, 2026!
Pluto returns to Uttarshada by August 03, 2026 and leavers the constellation by December 25, 2026 this time for good.
Jupiter and Saturn have comparatively lesser sojourn in Uttarshada.
Jupiter enters Sagi-Uttarshada on 08 March 2020.Crosses into Capricorn-Uttarshada on 30 March 2020 and conjuncts Pluto in Capricorn.Becomes retrograde in Cap-Uttarshada on 15 May 2020.Moves back into Sagi-Uttarshada on July 01, 2020. Leaves Sagi-Uttarshada on 27 July 2020 and rolls back into Poorvashada  ruled by Venus.Becomes Direct in Poorvashada on 13 September and re-enters Sagi Uttarshada by Direct motion on 30 October 2020.Jupiter conjuncts Pluto in Sagi-Uttarshada on 12 November 2020 and re-enters   Capricorn-Uttarshada on 20 November 2020.
By 21 December 2020, Jupiter conjuncts Saturn in Capricorn Uttarshada and finally leaves Uttarshada on 07 January 2021.
Saturn had entered Sagi-Uttarshada on 26 December 2019.Was conjunct  Pluto on 12 January 2020 in Sagi-Uttarshada. In fact by 12 and 13 January, Pluto, Saturn, Mercury and Sun were all crowding into Sagi-Uttarshada. Saturn enters Cap-Uttarshada by January 24 2020.By May 12, 2020 Saturn turns retrograde in Uttarshada and turns Direct in the same constellation by 30 September 2020.Saturn leaves Uttarshada constellation by 22 January 2021.
So we see that Pluto, Jupiter and Saturn keep literally ploughing back and forth through Uttarshada. We can expect huge transformation in the way Governments  run countries, in the very nature of Governance itself.In January 2021, Uranus from Bharani constellation also starts getting connected to Jupiter by way of a square and then squares Saturn in February 2021.Widespread losses, strife across the globe and change in every aspect of life is to be expected. 
As for the markets, we may expect the bear rally to soon fizzle out especially when there is a collective retrograde expression, Saturn, Venus and Jupiter, one after the other starting from 11th to 15th May 2020.Parivarthana of Mars and Rahu in a trine just adds to the flavour..

====================================================================

Saturn and Jupiter....Masters of Our Universe

Our essence has not changed over the eons and so we have collectively given birth to cycles..One of them is visiting us after 147 years...Saturn in Sagittarius and Scorpio..
( When all of us were experiencing a different life time in a different body! )
Saturn moved out of Sagittarius on December 30, 1872.

We find that from an 1870 low ( it happened after January 01, obviously ) markets moved up in 1870, fell to a low in 1871 but continued higher into 1872.

2017 resonates with 1870. We saw the significant low developing in December 2016. And the market rise and rise into 2017.Currently the rhyming correction of 1870 seems to be on
In other words we are just experiencing a correction inside the uptrend.
We may expect a rise once again after the correction to another all time high.
Does Jupiter agree with Saturn?
Let us find out!

In 2017, Jupiter enters Libra on September 12, 2017 and remains there till October 11, 2018.
We are in August 2017 and so are concerned about the entry of Jupiter into Libra.
We find either just before entry into Libra or after entering Libra, an important low is formed by markets. Then there is a spectacular rise.
So the lows of Saturn and Jupiter are converging.Which means the Masters are in Agreement.
What should we do?
Use the lows to get into the markets for continuation of the Bull trend. What else?
Use stop losses for shorts, always keeping an eye on whiplashes