BankNifty

Bank Nifty which was a positive contributor to Nifty has fallen on hard times of late..as can be seen in the chart above. This is now a drag on the Nifty..If BN improves, Nifty also will improve.

See how much SBIN has contributed to the sluggishness in BankNifty ?
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have a combined weightage of 52%..So if they move, Nifty will also move..

Week of May 18 to 22 2020

What a week! 20 lakh crore lure did not impress Nifty!
With Pluto, Jupiter and Saturn ganging up, the World  still has the smell of blood on its hands. All the perfumes of Arabia  ( read it as stimulus ) couldn't make  the World`s little hand smell better...
Curiously the Government chose a highly retrograde period ( Saturn, Venus and Jupiter all commencing retrograde stations between May 12 to 15 ) to announce its eco package.
Two of the planets Venus and Jupiter are specifically connected to Tall Finances!
The strong bear rally upto April 30 went into a subdued mood with a sideways downtrend with a negative bias. 
Bulls have not given up yet..They did not allow Nifty to break 9000..
This week it looks like Bulls may have the upper hand and push the Index into the 9300 to 9500 zone again.
Sun,Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto are all in Sun star.
Rahu and Venus are in Mars star.
Certainly there is no shortage of fire power!
Anyways let us have proper stop-losses for our positions..With so many retrogrades in the air, safety should be the first concern.
Sun has now trined Pluto and Jupiter. By May 22 2020, it would complete its trine with Saturn.
Then it maybe a different ball game altogether.
  

Nifty Weekly as on May 11, 2020

Nifty had bounced 49.59 % to 9889.05 before deciding to pull back.On a weekly scale, this is just the second wave, if counted from the bottom of 7511.
We are just in the third week of the pull back. We can see that the pull back has mostly occurred on profit taking and lack of positive news. Contrarily,  any negative news can pull the market down, more.
23.6 % level of the full down move and 50% of the counter up-move are in the region of 8700.. That may be a logical level in case of a down move.
Interestingly, the 38.20% of the down move and the  23.60% of the counter up-move are in the 9327-9390 levels, which were levels of dog fights recently!
Time wise week ending June 12 or the week beginning June 15 appear to be crucial.

Some Comparisons

Nifty versus Nasdaq 100 

NASDAQ 100 is just 409 points away from its highest close.Now we know where International Funds are flowing into!
Let us compare Nifty`s sister Indices....

 Nifty Pharma, Energy , Infra and IT are currently doing better than Nifty 50 companies.This is from the low of March 2020.

Astro Technicals for Week of May 11 to 15 2020

It pays to remember that we are in a Jupiter-Pluto conjunction period which will last from April to November 2020.

April 04: Jupiter-Pluto conjunction (Both Direct) at less than 1 * of Capricorn.

Pandemic related Fear and confusion reach great levels.

June 30:  Jupiter-Pluto conjunction (Both Retrograde) at less than 1*of Capricorn. Saturn, dispositor of Pluto and Jupiter is also retrograde and so are Neptune and Mercury.. Complacency is likely to set in. Our leaders may claim that coronavirus is all conquered and so would a section of our society. But Jupiter-Pluto conjunctions are asking us to follow the new social norms and attitudes humbly. With Kala Sarpa Dosha also subsiding by May 29, tendency to ignore the pandemic could be strong.

November 12, 2020: Pluto and Jupiter conjunct in Sagittarius. A time period which could be difficult if we had all been complacent during May-June 2020?

Let us examine the markets with this back ground.

Just looking at the Lunations we expected the markets to make an isolated high on 08^th May. Nifty touched 176 points higher ( at 9382.65 ) than the previous day`s close of 9199.05 but gradually declined to close at 9251.50 ( + 52.45 points ).

Movement of Moon from Poorvashada on May 11^th to Satabhista on May 15^th points to a declining trend, but with Saturn, Venus and Jupiter getting retrograde,  ( 12^th May to 15^th May )there could be a pull up effect also in the same period before a decline next week. One another powerful aspect is the square between Neptune and Venus.

Anyhow after May 15^th Nifty favours a decline. The unusual exuberance expressed now is going to have a reality check.

Our take..9340 to 9400 is a good near term shorting zone for Nifty.Do follow the technical signals first.

Nifty-Today`s Tug of War ( May 06 2020 )

Today the fight was  between 9258 and 9344. Bulls wanted a closing above 9344.And bears wished to pull it below 9258 and take it close to 9100.They nearly succeeded in pulling the index down and somehow  bulls managed to bring it into the 9258 -9344 zone. Still it was advantage sellers even though Nifty closed 65.30 points in the positive.   

Let us look at the 14 Day Rsis for various time periods.

5 Min RSI is in positive zone at 50.89

15 Min Rsi is also positive at 47.93

60 min Rsi is mildly positive at 41.83

Day RSI is at 49.59 -positive

Week RSI at 37.91 is negative

Monthly RSI at 39.88 is also negative

So, more headwinds in larger time frames.

With Sun in Aries in Bharani, Venus in Mars star in Taurus, and Moon coming to Scorpio, market could form a minor top by the later half of Friday, May 08th and start to decline again...Most probably this could coincide with the declining effects caused because of Saturn, Venus and Jupiter turning retrograde between May 12 to 15th.

2020 A Watershed Year

The above two images symbolize 2020 for us.  Planet Pluto and Corona virus.

Pluto represents Transformation.Its energy is extremely potent and powerful: Pluto represents the underbelly of emotions, what lies beneath the surface, and the subconscious mind.Pluto brings about transformation by merciless destruction, transformation which is essential in our growth path.
Pluto entered Uttarshada constellation on October 21, 2019 and was joined by Sun on December 26, 2019.
Planetary energy gathers strength only when more planets connect by way of conjunctions or aspects.
Along-with Pluto, Ketu, Jupiter, Sun, Moon and Mercury were also in fiery, action oriented  Sagittarius, in December 2019. We can say these other planets were eclipsed by the Rahu- Ketu axis. Ketu is the indicator of natural calamities, violent actions or events, fears and accidents. It also rules the poor and isolated That was the time, Chinese doctors were grappling with an unknown viral disease which was later named as COVID- 19.
Uttarshada is ruled by Sun which symbolizes the ruling class. So transformation was indicated, through the agency of the ruling class ( Governments ) with widespread fear as the catalyst.
Pluto entered Capricorn on February 22, 2020.Markets all over the world started tanking at the same time.Which was nothing but a manifestation of the inner, all pervading fear.
Saturn had already moved into Capricorn by January 24, 2020 still in Uttarshada.
Mars enters Capricorn Uttarshada constellation on March 22, 2020 and is closely conjunct Pluto.
Jupiter enters Capricorn Uttarshada constellation on March 29,2020. Sun was in Pisces in Saturn star in parivarthana. Since all three planets had moved away from the Sagi-Gemini nodal axis, fear lessened and Governments promised action by way of massive stimulus. Markets formed a trough and began to rise again.
But since Saturn, Pluto and Jupiter are all placed in Uttarshada in Capricorn, the woes and problems faced by the Governments and by people through Governmental actions are not going away in a hurry.
In fact these planets are staying in this constellation for a while.
Pluto retrogrades in Capricorn-Uttarshada on April 26, 2020.And moves into Sagittarius-Uttarshada on July 03, 2020. ( Unfinished business regarding far reaching transformations in progress and development.).Becomes Direct in the same constellation in Sagi on October 05, 2020.Re-enters Capricorn on December 28, 2020.And leaves Uttarshada constellation only by February 15, 2026!
Pluto returns to Uttarshada by August 03, 2026 and leavers the constellation by December 25, 2026 this time for good.
Jupiter and Saturn have comparatively lesser sojourn in Uttarshada.
Jupiter enters Sagi-Uttarshada on 08 March 2020.Crosses into Capricorn-Uttarshada on 30 March 2020 and conjuncts Pluto in Capricorn.Becomes retrograde in Cap-Uttarshada on 15 May 2020.Moves back into Sagi-Uttarshada on July 01, 2020. Leaves Sagi-Uttarshada on 27 July 2020 and rolls back into Poorvashada  ruled by Venus.Becomes Direct in Poorvashada on 13 September and re-enters Sagi Uttarshada by Direct motion on 30 October 2020.Jupiter conjuncts Pluto in Sagi-Uttarshada on 12 November 2020 and re-enters   Capricorn-Uttarshada on 20 November 2020.
By 21 December 2020, Jupiter conjuncts Saturn in Capricorn Uttarshada and finally leaves Uttarshada on 07 January 2021.
Saturn had entered Sagi-Uttarshada on 26 December 2019.Was conjunct  Pluto on 12 January 2020 in Sagi-Uttarshada. In fact by 12 and 13 January, Pluto, Saturn, Mercury and Sun were all crowding into Sagi-Uttarshada. Saturn enters Cap-Uttarshada by January 24 2020.By May 12, 2020 Saturn turns retrograde in Uttarshada and turns Direct in the same constellation by 30 September 2020.Saturn leaves Uttarshada constellation by 22 January 2021.
So we see that Pluto, Jupiter and Saturn keep literally ploughing back and forth through Uttarshada. We can expect huge transformation in the way Governments  run countries, in the very nature of Governance itself.In January 2021, Uranus from Bharani constellation also starts getting connected to Jupiter by way of a square and then squares Saturn in February 2021.Widespread losses, strife across the globe and change in every aspect of life is to be expected. 
As for the markets, we may expect the bear rally to soon fizzle out especially when there is a collective retrograde expression, Saturn, Venus and Jupiter, one after the other starting from 11th to 15th May 2020.Parivarthana of Mars and Rahu in a trine just adds to the flavour..

====================================================================

Saturn and Jupiter....Masters of Our Universe

Our essence has not changed over the eons and so we have collectively given birth to cycles..One of them is visiting us after 147 years...Saturn in Sagittarius and Scorpio..
( When all of us were experiencing a different life time in a different body! )
Saturn moved out of Sagittarius on December 30, 1872.

We find that from an 1870 low ( it happened after January 01, obviously ) markets moved up in 1870, fell to a low in 1871 but continued higher into 1872.

2017 resonates with 1870. We saw the significant low developing in December 2016. And the market rise and rise into 2017.Currently the rhyming correction of 1870 seems to be on
In other words we are just experiencing a correction inside the uptrend.
We may expect a rise once again after the correction to another all time high.
Does Jupiter agree with Saturn?
Let us find out!

In 2017, Jupiter enters Libra on September 12, 2017 and remains there till October 11, 2018.
We are in August 2017 and so are concerned about the entry of Jupiter into Libra.
We find either just before entry into Libra or after entering Libra, an important low is formed by markets. Then there is a spectacular rise.
So the lows of Saturn and Jupiter are converging.Which means the Masters are in Agreement.
What should we do?
Use the lows to get into the markets for continuation of the Bull trend. What else?
Use stop losses for shorts, always keeping an eye on whiplashes

Plainly speaking....

This bull market from 2009 has been about liquidity.
The bull market which ended in last quarter of 2007-08 was all about cheap liquidity being pushed into the hands of the Public by Bankers and Insurance Companies.
The Bankers overdid the whole stuff, created sub primes and blew the whole stuff out of the water.
This Bull is all about cheap liquidity being pushed by Central Bankers onto the Financial Institutions and Retail Banks.
In other words, the very culprits of the last bull market had been handsomely supported with cheap money by the Central Bankers!
For the first time Yellen and Draghi are talking about reining in the Balance sheet..and stop its expansion.In other words they are talking about closing the tap..
We who follow the markets need only to first follow the Big Fund movement to understand the big picture...

Money which was relentlessly flowing into the Us Bond Market is now slowly moving out..Once the yield breaks the trend line we will know for sure that the Bond market has finally topped out...
A goodish portion has been flowing into the Equities markets of the US & A, but there has been flows to markets outside USA as well...at least that is the sense we get when we see the Dollar Index..

Clearly Emerging Markets seem to be benefiting.
Indian Markets have an additional angle to them..
Liquidity being provided by Mutual Funds..
Apart from FIIs.
So just keep watching break out stocks  especially large cap and those which attract huge volumes...Therein lie the best bets.

Bradley Projections for 2017 2018