Ashok Leyland a technical view ( February 10, 2015)

Since the long term chart is showing that wave 3 has ended and 4 has begun, it would be prudent for investors,to use the imminent upmove on budgetary conditions to get out of Ashok Leyland for the time being. For the short term of a month or so, Ashok Leyland can be bought and possibly sold off post budget.
After the 4th wave, which may last a few months, (fewer than wave 2 because wave 2 was complex and so wave 4 could be simple) Ashok Leyland could be bought for the medium term and ride wave 5 upwards into 2016.  If Ashok Leyland is available between Rs 45-50 after the budget correction, it may be a good medium term buy.

Nifty Update February 10, 2015

Havells India Astro Technicals

Havells has an interesting stock market chart. Lagna is Taurus and Yogakaraka Saturn is in the Lagna! ( He also has a dualistic 12th house role).lagna lord Venus is in the 11th and is exalted. Fifth lord Sun, is also in the 11th, with Venus.So the stock has great performance potential.Jupiter and Ketu are troublesome, since they represent 8 and 12 houses. Since Mars owns 7th house,it implies neutrality.

Currently Havells is going through Rahu dasa, Saturn anthara and Mars sub period.

Rahu is in Moon star in the 5th.Saturn is in 7th and Mars is in Jupiter star which is a malefic.

After the present down trend which is a correction,  Havells can be accumulated 

Long term wave counts suggest that Havells has made a top.Correction has started currently.

Daily chart shows the wave counts broken down ...we seem to be in wave c of a, in the downtrend. 

Aurobindo Pharma update

Last time we had mentioned that Aurobindo shall touch 1238 and then reverse into 4th wave. Actually it went up to 1275 and now has closed at 1109.Looks like 4th wave has begun. First level should be 23.6 % retracement level of 1008. Since wave 2 was simple, as per alternation theory, wave 4 could be complex and time consuming.

Astro wise, Aurobindo is going through Rahu Dasa Venus antara, upto October 30, 2017. Rahu is currently in Moon star, and Moon is a 12th house significator. By July 14th, Rahu will move into Sun star. By July 28th, 2015, Venus will become retrograde at 06.38 degrees in Leo, in the star of Ketu.Aurobindo may start improving from then on. Currently use every rise to lighten positions.
Let us wait for one more bear candle in monthly to confirm long term counts.

Biocon Update Feb 06 2015

Biocon looks to bottom out in the 390 to 400 range. Wave 5 of 3 should begin soon. Expected target is 550 levels.Those levels should see the culmination of wave 3.

Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 06 to 13, 2015

This was our observation last week, ( February 01, 2015):

"Looking at astro formations, we begin the week with Aquarius rising and Moon in Gemini, in the 5th.

Jupiter retro is in the 6th, Venus and Sun are in the 12th.After a weak start markets may bounce back, especially till the Full Moon.

Full Moon on 4th February, triggers the Uranus Mars midpoint and gives an effect which is as if Mars is in conjunction to Uranus. Already Uranus and Ketu are inflamed. Since they are in Mercury star, they have been giving sudden, surprising moves in all markets, especially in the currency market. With this translation, Mars also adds its aggression to the equation. Since Pisces represents religious beliefs through Jupiter, terrorism could also escalate, till Jupiter trines with these planets. More volatility and divergences are expected in financial markets.

So the Full Moon may provide fresh triggers to  continue the downtrend.

The uptrend which began on January 15th, did not change track on January 22, when Mercury became retrograde, but went on right upto January 30, 2015. We have often seen that if a market does not change direction when Mercury goes retrograde, often does so during the mid-period of Mercury retrograde.

February 02, 2015 is the tradable Mercury retro mid period day. And  February 11, happens to be the date when Mercury becomes direct.

Nifty started a down move on January 30, one trading day before Mercury retro mid period day of February 02.

So,  will this down trend continue till Mercury becomes direct? That is, till February 11, 2015?

By the weekend, another important aspect will come into play. Capricorn Sun will oppose Cancerian, retro Jupiter. Given its customary orb, we may see a reversal in the period February 11 to 16, 2015.

So the question is, considering Mercury phenomenon and Jupiter Sun aspect together, will we see a bottom next week?"

Our observations this week...

Mercury continues its retrograde motion and Nifty followed suit throughout the week. We expected a bounce by the Full Moon and that too happened. Full Moon triggered further down fall and Nifty came down upto 8646 before closing at 8661.

Mercury becomes direct on February 12th.Transiting Lagna at 09 am starts transiting in the ninth house for Nifty Futures, from February 13 onwards. So most probably we may see a low formation this week and Nifty should get into pre budget rally from the weekend.

Sun Jupiter opposition occurred on February 06, 2015.Nifty low formation could also be by February 12/13, based on this important aspect.

Of course these are just our assumptions. Let us watch and ascertain what really happens.

Starting from February 16th right upto March 15th, 2015, we are about to go through an intense astro time. There are several aspects which will culminate and bring in major effects in all walks of life, including financial markets.

Entry of Mars into Pisces and Venus into Aquarius merely marks a beginning.

Looking at technicals, first on a weekly mode.,

  On the longer term we find that we are entering a very important reversal period by March 16-20 2015, based on 56 /57 week trends.

On a shorter time period. Nifty has formed an evening star on the weekly. This means some more down move is to be expected this week, before a low is formed.Looking at triangular formation in stochastics, maybe not more than 150 points? It does not matter..if short, just ride the pony, till it bucks.

Cycle updates continue on expected lines. Interaction between the 23 day and 108 day cycle should produce a shallow bottom. Interestingly 12/13 March is the classical cycle top. March 16 is the weekly cycle top. That is also the time zone for the last Uranus Pluto square..

Cycles also point out the same..9082 is the level to watch out for. Black and red cycles form a pair. Blue and green cycles another pair.You can see that Nifty had exceeded the blue cycle target and has reversed. 8531 is an important level to watch out for. It is formed inside the yellow band. 

Finally Neo waves...

Trade cautiously. We are passing through uncertain times... 

Bank Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 04 2015 update

Bank Nifty movements are better understood in a comparison with Nifty..
See these two charts..

So, Bank Nifty has weakened more than Nifty of late. Levels of 18500 or so are good entry points for a pre budget rally.
Astrologically Bank Nifty is in a weak period from Jan 27, 2015. Mars is in its 8th and this will continue till March 06th. In between expect an upmove coinciding with the effect dates of Sun Jupiter opposition.

Bank Nifty might do much better after March 2015. Second half of the year should be very good for Bank Nifty. I expect Bank Nifty to outpace Nifty this year, because both Jupiter in Leo in the second and retro Saturn should be favourable for BN.

Nifty Astro Technicals February 02 to 06 2015

We had a rather eventful week. In the shortened week gone by, Nifty opened with a gap from 8836 to 8871 on Jan 27th and till Jan 30, 2015, went on to hit an all time high of 8997 ( just 3 short of 9000!) before a huge sell off took hold and crashed the prices to 8775, before it finally closed at 8809.In one day, all the gains made since January 23, were wiped off.In fact this week`s closing of 8809 was lower than the previous week`s closing of 8836.
We see a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and a large bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

Both patterns occur after a sustained bull run and on good volumes.This suggests that a trend reversal is possibly on the cards. If this week also the bearish trend continues, we are  having  a much needed correction.Much needed because, a market which goes up without a correction is far more dangerous. It can collapse like a house of cards hurting a lot of people.
Neo wave wise, we are in wave c of abc.Inside wave c, the euphoric rise from 8237 up to 8997 ( 760 points) is wave a and with the sell off, we are possibly in wave b of c.After this wave b, we may possibly have wave c of c which could be the pre budget rally.

I have updated the cycles chart and shown the current counts on it. Break out from a horizontal, contracting triangle can be upto 125% of the largest leg of the triangle. Largest leg is of a of b, which is 8727-7961=666 points.The current upthrust had made 760 points, which is 114% and of c so the upthrust is technically complete.
But wave a and b of the xabc formation, were 31 and 29 day affairs respectively.Wave c has so far done only 10 days.With b of c and c of c remaining, wave c also could do 30 trading days.
Whether xabc will end with wave c? This is to be seen because with the recently concluded wave b being smaller than wave a, the chances of a diametric formation is high. This means we may have c up, d down, e up,  f down and g up in a butterfly or diamond pattern before the complex correction finally concludes. But this is only an assumption and can be confirmed only after wave c concludes.
There is every possibility that abc completes as a zig zag or a flat. Both wave a and this wave a of c were strongly bullish. This agrees with the nature of a zigzag.Critical thing will be the nature of wave b  of c ,which is unfolding.This should not be more than 61.8% of wave a of c. But then these are early days yet.
Looking at cycles,23 day cycles are the ones depicted in blue. Current uptrend seems to have topped out just after the mid point. See the starting point of this cycle. That was a point where the larger red 108 day cycle and the 23 day cycle bottomed out together.We saw Nifty falling to 7961 from 8727.
Now see where the blue cycle ends. It is marked as Feb 27. But the red cycle is soaring when the blue 23 day cycle ends on Feb 27.  Bigger cycles tend to influence smaller cycles. So the chances of a distortion to the smaller blue cycle is high. So Nifty may not form a significant low by Feb 27. At best it could be a shallow low.
This makes us consider 38.2% retracements more carefully....

The chart is not as complicated as it looks at first sight!
1. Nifty is bullish enough to reach 9082, based on angle break outs.
2.Nifty follows the 45 degree line faithfully. Every time it slips out, it makes an attempt to reach it. 8997 was one such attempt. Now that it has slipped out of the primary 45 degree line, it should take support at either the secondary 45 deg line or 30 degree line.
3, Both point to 8601 levels possibly in the second week of February 2015.
4. Wave b of c is also unlikely to go down in a straight line. we may see up and downs.
5. If the fibo levels do not hold, then we may conclude that a diametric is in the offing.

   Looking at astro formations, we begin the week with Aquarius rising and Moon in Gemini, in the 5th.
Jupiter retro is in the 6th ,Venus and Sun are in the 12th.After a weak start markets may bounce back,  especially till the Full Moon.
Full Moon on 4th February, triggers the Uranus Mars midpoint and gives an effect which is as if Mars is in conjunction to Uranus. Already Uranus and Ketu are inflamed. Since they are in Mercury star,they have been giving sudden, surprising moves in all markets, especially in the currency market.With this translation, Mars also adds its aggression to the equation. Since Pisces represents religious beliefs through Jupiter, terrorism could also escalate, till Jupiter trines with these planets.More volatility and divergences are expected in financial markets.
So the Full Moon may provide fresh triggers to  continue the downtrend.

The uptrend which began on January 15th, did not change track on January 22, when Mercury became retrograde, but went on right upto January 30, 2015. We have often seen that if a market does not change direction when Mercury goes retrograde, often does so during the mid period of Mercury retrograde.
February 02, 2015 is the tradeable Mercury retro mid period day. And  February 11, happens to be the date when Mercury becomes direct.
Nifty started a down move on January 30, one trading day before Mercury retro mid period day of February 02.
So,  will this down trend continue till Mercury becomes direct? That is, till February 11, 2015?

By the weekend, another important aspect will come into play. Capricorn Sun will oppose Cancerian, retro Jupiter.Given its customary orb, we may see a reversal in the period February 11 to 16, 2015.

So the question is, considering Mercury phenomenon and Jupiter Sun aspect together, will we see a bottom next week?

Reading everything together, we expect Nifty to drift down and form a bottom sometime next week. 38.2% seems probable, but we never know...
Friends, I have done my best to put my ideas as clearly as possible here. But Iam not perfect. Neither am I infallible. Please use this information appropriately and trade in such a manner that you do not lose capital.
Thank you all for your continuous support.
  

Nifty Technicals January 28 2015

View blog

We are firmly in wave c of xabc.
Wave c can develop as a diametric or as a triangle. We will have to wait and see.
Wave c has achieved 8968 levels which we were watching.
In the complex wave channel, price has now touched the upper trend line.
Which seems to be a confluence of sorts.
The 23 day cycle is approaching an inversion point. If we have an inversion now. we may have a bottom after 23 days.
We may wait to see the hourly momentum moving up and reaching another top. Only when all three period momentum start down, shall we conclude the present upmove to be over.
In short, the uptrend is maturing. But wait for technical signals before assuming a reversal is in vogue.
Let us not forget, that we are only in the first wave of c, which is a strong up wave. So all reversals should be used to buy in dips or move out of shorts.Only if the complex wave channel breaks in faster time can we conclude that a major reversal has taken place.

Nifty Astro Analysis January 27 to February 06, 2015

Friends, let me first address the question of astrological analysis. Contrary to what some of you have expressed, there is no lack of continuity here. Astro analysis, most often in the past, has happened once a week, during the weekend. But sometimes during the week, I post articles of a technical nature in addition to the technical ones you see on the weekend as well.

Let me start with the conclusions of 

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2015/01/nifty-astro-view-point-jan-19-to-23-2015.html

“We find that in all major turning points, Rahu and Ketu were involved in aspects. Mostly when trines were there, we had long term falls. Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall. The effect of Saturn square Mars and Venus opposite Jupiter also is the same. To top it, we have three lunar phenomena this week, including a New Moon. So astro suggests that there is a scope for a fall and bottom formation. The question is whether Jan 23 is the low or will there be further downsides because of Ketu Uranus conjunction, opposed by Rahu?

That we will have to wait and see....”

So, analysing further,
In 2007/08, we see Pluto Ketu trine. Market Topped

In 2010, we see Rahu conjunct Pluto and opposed by Ketu. Market Topped

In August 2013, we see Ketu trine Pluto.  Market bottomed. (Jupiter was square Uranus, Venus was square Jupiter and Venus was square Uranus. In fact any triangular square formation is a sign of a bottom formation.)

So, when Ketu and Pluto become trine, markets go through a reversal point. Either topping or bottoming.

In January 15, 2015, Rahu and Ketu were square to Pluto. (We see the same triangular formation…Pluto, Ketu and Rahu. Uranus adds another additional dimension.)

What was our observation?

“Squares tend to produce a bottom after a fall”.

We have seen that Rahu always brings in an element of surprise or unpredictability. Not for nothing is he referred to as Maayaavi, by the ancients. Additionally, Ketu was conjunct or close to conjunct with Uranus. Both of them are known to produce surprises and sudden market upheavals.

So the Rahu Pluto Ketu square did produce a bottom, but not after a fall. The bottom was instant, on January 15^th…By its very definition, a bottom means, market reaches a low point and then moves higher.
This is what happened on January 15^th. Nifty made a bottom of 8237 and had since, moved higher, upto 8911 so far.  

In fact the additional aspects of Saturn squaring Mars and Jupiter (R) opposing Venus only accentuate the bottom formation, or rather the up thrust after the bottom.

So, Astrological phenomena were true after all. My understanding alone was faulty. I had expected a further fall and then a bottom formation. Instead there was a bottom formed without any further fall..

Rahu Ketu axis squaring a Pluto Uranus duo which itself is in a square, is the rarest of rare celestial phenomena. It is not going to happen in our life time again. So I guess, you may make some leeway for my fault!

To sum up, the most important lesson I have learnt here is that slow moving planets when they get into aspects with one another, produce powerful effects. Squares and oppositions tend to produce bottoms while trines and conjunctions tend to produce tops. More specifically they produce heavy reversals. Exact nature of reversals could be gleaned by also analyzing what other aspects are in vogue at that point of time.

What next?

See this post of November 2014

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/11/nifty-astro-technicals-for-november-24.html

Whenever Pluto and Uranus head for a square, markets tend to race up to this rare signal.

Final Square is on March 18, 2015.
In fact, between December 24 2014 and March 18, 2015, Uranus and Pluto do not really go farther than one degree. Within this large time period, from February 20 to 18^th March, Jupiter trines with Uranus.

So the up move should last with corrections upto March 18. 2015, which is 37 trading days away. In fact the volatility could increase substantially, because of the following aspects from February 20 2015 onwards.

20 Feb Uranus begins to trine Jupiter. Curiously, Jupiter Uranus trine ceases on March 18^th!

21 Feb Venus conjunct Mars in Pisces

23 Feb Sun squares Mars.

01 March Venus joins Rahu Ketu axis.

04 Venus square Pluto-conjunct Uranus- both trine Jupiter. (Pluto, Uranus and Jupiter are slow moving)

05 March Mars joins the Rahu Ketu axis.

11 March Mars square Pluto-conjunct Uranus- both trine Jupiter

15 March Saturn turns Retrograde. (Within three days, Uranus and Pluto will be exact square. Uranus and Jupiter will cease their trine relationship. Again all players involved are slow moving.)

In the short term, upto February 07, 2015,these are some important signatures:

31 Jan Venus squares Saturn

01 Feb Mars conjunct Chiron

01 Feb Sun trines Rahu

01 Feb Venus conjunct Neptune

04 Feb Full Moon

05 Sun opposes Jupiter ( R)

Since we had a Mars Saturn square on January 16, we may expect a trough formation by the weekend or early next week. Do note that if a trough has to occur, prices have to first stop rising, reverse into a down move, form a low and then rise again.

When they rise again next week, they will immediately encounter resistance from all the above signatures and so there maybe another reversal from a top.

In short, the persistent uptrend which we had seen maybe coming to a close astrologically.

Let us just see historically how one set of conjunctions have behaved in the past.  

Uranus Ketu conjunctions…..

We had one on January 18, 2015. This was special because Pluto also was involved in a square.

Uptrend was arrested in February 1984.

In May 1999, markets declined after a prolonged rise.

We have the same signature from 18 Jan onwards..
I shall cover technicals in the next post...