Nifty Technicals Cycles Update October 17 2014

Given above is the hourly cycle chart update. I have used only two cycles 81 and 147. Even 147 is an adaptation of 160, so it is really one cycle.Once we understand this we can go to multiple cycles. Last time the blue cycle bottomed out 18 hours after a low. So this time also we had the same time band in consideration. Possibly because some other larger cycle was in action and so the market seemed to make a low yesterday at 7724. Thereafter the next cycle seems to have started. The next 30 bars could be bullish or bearish. If the market tops out before the next 3 trading  days, then we are in for another new low. If not we are going higher.
Just have a look at the nature of cycles in this chart, for better clarity...

   
Next we look at the daily chart for more clarity...

As per daily we may have the next low on October 22 or 27 ( I have not considered Muhurat trading.) A more significant low on Nov 3 to 5. Both dates match with the hourly also.
So it looks like the present hourly bounce is more of a dead cat bounce. Or at best whatever up move we get may be retraced.
What do the momentum charts say?

Since weekly and monthly look negative yet, our bias will be on sell on rises for positional. And buying for intraday. Of course the moment we see one downward bar  reversal in the hourly we will go short. Remember, going long is actually counter trend movement.
We will see the wave counts and astro picture in a separate post.  
 

Nifty Astro Technicals October 16, 2014

Our friend Harish had asked about hourly time cycles of Nifty and whether we could use them for trading.
We definitely can! Cycles are as valid in shorter time frames as they are in longer time frames. However, they are less stable than the longer cycles and so we should use them with other technical tools.
Have a look at this chart....

 Red lines represent 147 day cycles and blue lines represent 81 day cycles.These have been plotted from a previous significant low. Significant lows are when several cycles bottom out together. Thereafter based on the influence each is subjected to, they move out keeping in phase with one another.
We can see how,  near an important low, both the cycles came together.In fact the rally which occurred after that August 08 low, took every one by surprise, in its aggressiveness,With this cycle info, we could have traded the rise confidently.
Sometimes we see the market lows forming just after the cycle lines or before them. That is where we se other technical tools to understand the movement better and time ourselves.
I have measured here the cycle displacements by those small, coloured rectangles.
Those are expanded in the chart here....

 
The rectangles and the bars are more visible here.From the left rectangles, we infer that the red cycles were 18 bars late and the blue cycles were 18 bars early.
The next blue circle is due within 8 bars.That means another market low is due by eod tomorrow or, the blue cycle is early by 8 bars and the market bottomed out today.In other words, the late phase of 18 days has been reduced to 8 days.This is only a possibility.
To narrow down our choices, we look at other technical tools..

Nifty has broken out of the downward sloping channel and closed below it. So some more weakness is indicated.Hourly momentum is oversold but has not bounced yet.So we wait for a strong reversal signal. That would also mean one of the  cycles has bottomed out and it is time for going long.
But only after we get a reversal confirmation.
Or else the market could still go down.Any which way, since the cycle is due within 8 bars, ( 1 day), we should know in a couple of days.
The longer red cycle is due between Oct 23 and 26. So between tomorrow and October 23, we may expect a top. If the top takes time to form, then we are going much higher. If the top is formed within 18 bars, then we will be going down further.Which means it would be time to short the market.
In the further right side of the chart, we see one of the blue cycles bottoming out on November 03.
Remember in an earlier post I had mentioned the possibility of a daily cycle bottoming out by November 03 to 06th?  That could be a good low.
Astrologically, we are in the mid period of Mercury retrograde.So a trend change is possible. Tomorrow, retrograde Mercury meets his Master, the Sun.We will be on the 7th trading day after Venus squared Pluto.There is  potential for a low.
Rest, of course is in the hands of Lord Shiva.

Nifty Cycles October 14, 2014

In technical analysis, we spend far too much time agonizing over price levels. Actually, time is also very important. In fact advanced Gann theories emphasize that price and time are interchangeable. One way we could measure time in market parlance is through the analysis of cycles.
Market movements are nothing but the composite effect of several cycles acting in unison. Some cycles are very long and some are very short. But all of them are always acting. When significant lows are formed, then several cycles bottom out immediately.So always, in cycle analysis, it is the bottoms which are important.
Here is a chart on  simple daily cycles which keep repeating...

What do we see? The dotted lines are getting bunched up by November, 03, 04 and 05.So we may expect an important low to be formed by that time.Saturn would just enter Scorpio,Debilitated Sun and  Venus could be conjunct in Libra and Ketu and Jupiter would be parting ways from a trine formation.Since the last quarter of a cycle is negative, we must be cautious from October 30 itself.

Is everything going to collapse?

Not really. Look at the monthly chart of Nifty....

Cycles are 18 to 21 months duration and are represented by black lines.The next cycle low is due by March 2015.

The relevant questions are, 

1. Will we see the fractal envelopes repeating? That is will Nifty form a shallow low and keep moving up later on? 

2. Or will she spike out and then form a sharp low?

Iam inclined to the later, that too by the second week of January 2015.Any how, there has to be one big upleg coming, as per this cycle analysis.

Enjoy the unexpected Holiday!

Nifty Technicals update October 14 2014

Our friend Pankaj had asked an interesting question.In the 30 min chart above, whether the point marked as 7832 c was not the completion of c, but the point marked as a ( 7797) was the completion of c? His reasoning is that the wave after 7797 has made a perfect impulse, as shown in the 5 min chart above.
My take is as follows.
1. I do not expect c to go down below 7797..c need not necessarily do so. For example if c is part of a triangle, then c would be smaller than b, right?
2. The environment is conducive for a triangle and not for an impulse.S&P is down, whereas inflation data and Reliance results favour bullishness. So majority participants are confused and that confusion is prevalent in Nifty movements.
3. Mostly impulse behaviour would be seen when world markets move in tandem..
4. Even by wave counts, if we shift c from 7832 to 7797 point, then degree wise c wave would not match.
Any way thanks a lot to Pankaj for this response. These things ae what makes writing this blog worthwhile.

Nifty Technicals for October 14, 2014

Nifty seems to be undergoing a complex correction in the recent legs of 30 min chart.What is of practical interest to us, is what will Nifty do next. It has formed "a"wave of three legs.
Currently it is in "b".Our interest is to know whether we have a flat formation here. So in this "b" leg, we must see an abc  and also to know how far Nifty will travel.Minimum distance b wave has to travel is upto 7905. But " b" also can travel beyond the beginning of "a" ( 7972).If one is long, then 7905 becomes crucial. If Nifty reverses from 7905, then we can go short at 7905. "c" should start downwards. In fact the size of b will tell us,  what will be the next move...  

Nifty Long term chart

Europe looks shaky. Gold and Silver have entered multi year bear market. Commodities are all down. Crude is entering a bear market.If S&P closes below 16334, then it is going to go into a reversal mode.
So what about Nifty? To understand I had looked into very long term charts of Nifty.
Here is the chart.
See how the bull trend respects the 45 degree parallels.A few more months of upmove is left before it tops out.January 2015 seems a likely month.

Nifty Technicals Oct 13 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals October 13 to 17, 2014

It had been wild since September 26, 2014. But then we had been expecting such high volatility from an astro perspective. This week we may start seeing the beginning of the end.But it ain`t over yet.
Let me explain, what I meant...

 
I had been pointing out the destabilising effect of Rahu when the faster planets conjunct with him. It began with Mercury conjunct Rahu on September 16.Last week it was the turn of Sun.
If we see the chart on the left, you we see Rahu and Sun are still conjunct...Look how Mars and Moon add fuel to the fire!
Then   at 22 degrees, Venus is waiting her turn to confront Rahu. This will happen as the week progresses.Also I had pointed out last week that Sun Pluto and Venus Pluto squares are completed. So we are in the time band for a trough. Which means mid week we are in for a bottom..By the week end, Mercury retro meets his Master, Sun.That also should aid the reversal.Still a sustained reversal is some time away..Maybe we should be out of shorts by mid week and reach a wait and watch zone.
Here are the chart updates...

Maximum slippage I expect is 7835. If Nifty closes below this, then I think it is more bearish than we thought.
Or else, after some base formation, expect the next upmove to 7956 levels, after some resistance at 7920 or thereabouts. This is just a forecast..not a prediction. So be absolutely sure to commit money, only if you see the market moving as per the expectation..In such volatilie period. stop loss is a must..

Nifty Astro Technicals update:October 09, 2014

If there were a roller coaster, then this is the one!
Just look at what the Dow is going through....

In all my recent articles I had been emphasizing on the volatility in world markets, Nifty included..While such volatility is difficult to explain ( not impossible) technically, Astrology provides ready answers.Our humble pranams to those great Masters who had revealed so much to us!
Have a look at this Astro Technical Chart....

Mars Uranus trine
Sun Uranus Opposition with Lunar Eclipse
Sun conjunct Rahu
Venus square Pluto

I think we are about to see  one more bottom, before a take off.
Better fasten your seat belts. You could be blown away!
And never trust a trend when Mercury is retrograde. He is known as the Universal trickster.He is retrograde in Libra. It is all about balance!


Here is an immediate chart....

 7910  and 7843 are immediate supports. Time limit  2 days.

Astro Technicals- Hindustan Unilever- October 07, 2014

Let us look at another stock, a famed multinational FMCG Company from a technical perspective..Iam referring to Hindustan Unilever Limited..

 What strikes us first, is that the long term price and time seem to be squaring. Which means Hindustan Uni Lever is in a major topping out process.Not too much of upside left for the moment...
What do the waves say?

 Yes, the waves also seem to confirm..we are in the 5th of a long term Elliott wave formation...Soon HUL has to start correcting.What could make HUL to correct? No idea...but something is definitely cooking.

This is how the parent is looking like....

Seems to be in 4th of fifth..Next up move may be used to exit positions from HUL.

Here is an astro analysis of HUL...

Trade harmoniously and safely!