Dow Jones Update May 2015

Have a look at these previous updates..
http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/11/astro-technicals-of-dow-jones.html

http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2015/02/dow-jones-and-gold-charts-feb-2015.html

Here is the current long term update. Dow may continue its bullish way till well into 2017 second half.We expect a good correction to levels below 17500 by March 2016.

Crude

Mars in Taurus 1985 and 2015

From Nifty Astro Technicals April 27 to 30 2015

"....by May 04th, Mars will be moving to Taurus and Venus to Gemini.Out of these two signs, Taurus is more important, because all planets passing through Taurus must necessarily meet the gaze of Saturn from Scorpio. All of them will have some destabilising effect bestowed upon them because of Saturn.
Let us see how Mars behaved last time it met Saturn opposition from Scorpio....."

 Since Mars is in Taurus for roughly 45 days, the first 0ne third when he traverses in Sun star, he depresses the market. And then there is a rebound...

Common factor is an immediate uptrend and then a pronounced fall..This means markets could turn down sharply in the middle of May and recover only in June, when Mars gets ready to move into Gemini...."

USDINR and Nifty

Since FIIs are an important moving force in our stock markets and since they bring in dollars and convert them into rupees when they come in and vice versa when they go out, it may be useful to look at the currency and Nifty together.

So what is the next move in Rupee? How will it impact Nifty?

Long term timing lines from previous high and low appear to intersect Rupee movement at its current position. So USDINR may form an important top now and start moving down in the medium term. In other words, Rupee could start appreciating from now on, for the medium term.
This could be bullish for Nifty in the medium term, if the correlation continues.

Looking at Nifty medium term,
Line 1 is the long term timing line for Nifty. She had recently broken it downwards.
Line 2 is its parallel line, which also has been pierced downwards, making the near term trend as down.
Currently Nifty is moving down along line 3.As can be seen, the immediate resistance ahead is at 8400. If Nifty gets resisted here, she may travel along line 3 and reach line 5.This support rests at 7961.
She is unlikely to break this line. If she still does it then she may go to line 6 or 7.If Nifty breaches 8145, she will be in the second circle. Then look to 7961 confidently.  If Nifty breaches 8356, then look at 8546 confidently.
As per the Rupee chart, if Nifty bottom out now at these levels we can confidently invest for the medium term. I think June 2015 may provide us this opportunity.

Nifty Astro Technicals May 14, 2015

I have updated the Daily Astro Aspects chart.
We have Mars opposite Saturn and Venus square Rahu and Ketu coming up immediately. Since they have been given in the top of the chart, it means we may expect a spike up to the aspect and a spike down within a day or so.
May 18 is New Moon. It is also the date of Mercury turning retro. This time, Mercury is in Moon, Mars is in Moon and Rahu is in Moon. So volatility may continue.Now this is in the bottom. So Nifty may move from a high of 15th to a low on 18th and turn up again till May 22.May 22 may be one more reversal.
Now, the exact extent of reversals may be ascertained and followed up through technical tools.

 Look at the cycles. Blue cycle had inverted on May 11th as expected.Volatility is because of directional clash of the blue and red cycles.Inverted blue cycle may promote a low towards its mid point. 108 day red cycle has turned down. Being the bigger cycle, it may push the market down.
Neo wave count has been updated.  We are in volatile b wave. b wave is up. After this b wave we will have a c wave down to complete the first leg down after the complex correction. Next big up move may happen in June 2015.

 Currently b wave looks to form a diametric.After g a decline looks possible.

Nifty Astro Technicals May 11 to 15, 2015

After hitting a high of 8356, Nifty crashed to a low of 7997, before closing at 8192. We had expected a bottom last week and we saw it at 7997.
So we have an interesting week ahead.Will Nifty carry on improving? Or will she break down and seek levels lower than 7997?
Let us seek some answers, starting with Astro...

Aspects shown in the bottom half of the chart are negative and aspects shown at the top portion of the chart are positive. Negative aspects favour bottom formation. So the market should decline nearby these aspects and top ones favour short term tops, after which market tends to move down.

Pluto retrograde, Venus square Neptune, Mars and Mercury squaring Pluto and Sun trine Pluto---all favoured Nifty moving down to a bottom, last week and that is what she had done. Special mention must be made of Jupiter squaring Full Moon on May 04th and within two days, Nifty crashed heavily to 7997.

For the week beginning May 11, we find that both Venus and Mercury are entering extreme declination positions. Moreover they are also Out of bounds. This makes both of them very unstable and lead to increased volatility. Jupiter is in Aslesha, ruled by Mercury and so he also will be unstable.

On May 11th, Moon is in the 8th house at start of trading.It is in the sub of Venus,which is the 5th and 12th house lord, placed in the 12th. So Nifty may open tentatively lower but gain strength later on. When Moon moves to Mars star, Nifty should move up steadily.Upmove may continue for 2 or 3 days, after which Venus square Rahu and Ketu, along with Mars opposite Saturn should take over and Nifty may resume her down move, close to the weekend. It is significant that Moon will be in Revathi by then.Mercury in the 12th may cause some problems for Bulls.

 Declination chart presents a picture which is self explanatory.

Gann Angles also suggest that May 14th or 15th could see a short term top..If Nifty does not manage to reach the higher slope line, then it could prove to be very bearish later on.

 Our cycles present more or less a similar picture. Since we are in an inverted  cycle, we have been expecting a short term top when the blue cycle hits the ground.So we may expect a short term top by around May 14/15.After which the more powerful red cycle takes over. Since this is firmly in the down trend and since Nifty is approaching the final phase of a turned down cycle, we may see significant price damage after the current up move tops out.

With consistent down ward pressure,Neo wave wise, we may consider wave e of the extracting triangle to be completed. So there is a good chance that the upmove from 5119, to 9119 may finally be over, as a complex corrective pattern.

To understand better,let us look at long term daily chart first....

 We see very clearly that Nifty had fallen off from the 45 degree central line, quite decisively and has now taken support on the next parallel 45 degree line, shown as dotted line.It is following the path of the red arc downward  as well.We have seen that it takes significant energy for Nifty to break through this red arc and move up.Every arc is an energy level.

When Nifty fell off from the central 45 degree line, it took support and reversed on the orange parallel line.

Similarly, if Nifty breaks the current dotted 45 deg parallel line, it may take support on a lower orange parallel line.

If it recovers from here with an energy burst, then the resistance is at 8627, as per angles.Right now, slippage to the lower orange line looks more probable.

Coming back to Neo wave, after wave e, we have seen an abc correction so far.Wave c may not be over yet. Low point of 7997 could be wave a of c and the current uptrend is wave b of b. So once this b of b is over, final c of c may start down. 

This then is our current expectation.Cycles and astro also seem to agree.

Even simply channel techniques on Monthly indicate a down trend in force, despite the recent up move.

Summing up,

Current upmove could be persist till May 14 or 15. Then the down trend could resume to seek levels lower that 7997. 

Again, again and again, these are all just expectations and assumptions. Putting money on the line must be done only when Nifty moves in the expected direction. Not before. 

No trade is to be done expecting Greece issue to worsen or improve.GST bill or Land Bill passing is of no consequence to the trader who wants to make money. 

How Nifty moves after such events is the only consideration. All what has been given above are just guidelines and are not infallible.

Enjoy your trading and let it be profitable! 

Nifty Astro Technicals May 04-08, 2015

The last week of April 2015, was quite significant for our markets. Nifty breached 8269 convincingly and reached a low of 8145 before closing at 8182. Now this was also the weekly and monthly closings.

Nifty is truly at cross roads now. Point E is the August 2013 low of 5119. Since then Nifty has been forming a triple combination consisting of a diametric till wave x and then another diametric till 2nd x. SAfter that it looked like it was forming a third and last diametric, but at the crucial leg e, it had weakened considerably more than it should and it has also formed a low weekly and monthly closing.As per Neo wave, triple combinations must end with the 2nd x formation.

So now we have two possibilities:

1. The last wave is forming an irregular flat, of which waves a and b has been completed and what is remaining is the last leg c of the flat. With that e is over,and we may have f down and g up, before the triple correction is finally over.This would mean the final culmination could come in two months.For this Nifty must strongly move up and close above 8845 in the next several weeks.

2.After 2nd x, we are not forming another diametric at all, but a triangle whose last leg is e and has been completed at 8845. This would be confirmed if Nifty moves up, closes wel below 8845 and then moves down and breaks 8065 on a closing basis.If so then we could see 7000 levels in Nifty pretty quickly.

By regular TA, we see lower top and lower bottoms being formed and this also supports option 2.

In the monthly chart also, Nifty has formed the second consecutive bear candle and has convincingly broken out of the long term 45 degree line.We have seen that in the past, if the original timing line of 45 degrees is violated, then Nifty tends to take support on another parallel line to the 45 degree line.It is marked in black.Another significance is the slope of the green arc.This is intercepting the black parallel line at 7724 or thereabouts, in about two months time. If this line does not hold then we look to the black arrow line along the red arc, to 6700 levels.  

Let us focus a little closer...

And the daily...

This points out to a 8500-8600 level of retracement immediately. So the longer term charts are suggesting more weakness and the daily chart is suggesting a pull back..

Simple angles point out that the time and price squaring is nearly over and a pull back could happen this week, upto May 13 to 15.

Extrapolation gives us additional dates into the future...

Our summation?

Nifty could bottom out temporarily in a day or two and start a pull back till the middle of May, 2015.

Of course we move only if prices confirm..

Happy trading!

Nifty Astro Technicals April 27 to 30 2015

This is what we had concluded last week...

"Putting everything together,
1. The short term trend is down.
2.Next week could see two way movements.
3. Any rise maybe used to sell. Having said  Market could come down some more before a sustained upmove begins.
4. Expect a bottom late next week, but do not anticipate and place orders.
5. Negativity could spill over into the week after next,before a sustainable bottom is formed.
6. We see divergences, but the price should move in our direction before positions can be taken positively.
7. Trailing stop losses are a must, because volatility could increase from here on."

Nifty behaved exactly as we expected. 
Let us see what is in store this week...
We begin with the Astro charts for a change.....

Colour bars in the bottom of the chart, point out to a probable bottom formation right now.Since we have Venus and Saturn opposition effect of a crest, we may expect the market to go up and again come down by the time we have the settlement.For very short term we may sell the longs in a couple of days and again go short for the settlement. May 04 onwards, this longer term aspects will come into being and the markets may move  more consistently.
In addition, by May 04th, Mars will be moving to Taurus and Venus to Gemini.Out of these two signs, Taurus is more important, because all planets passing through Taurus must necessarily meet the gaze of Saturn from Scorpio. All of them will have some destabilising effect bestowed upon them because of Saturn.
Let us see how Mars behaved last time it met Saturn opposition from Scorpio..

  Since Mars is in Taurus for roughly 45 days, the first 0ne third when he traverses in Sun star, he depresses the market. And then there is a rebound...
What is the effect of Jupiter in Cancer on all these ?

Common factor is an immediate uptrend and then a pronounced fall..This means markets could turn down sharply in the middle of May and recover only in June, when Mars gets ready to move into Gemini.
Now other aspects could add up and change the game a bit. So I expect a good move till May 12/13 2015.

I looked into the 1990s also, but Mars had become retrograde in Taurus and that complicated matters a little bit. Nevertheless, we notice that the final one third time of Mars in Taurus always points out to an uptrend.
So our conclusions?
Astro Wise, Markets could turn now, go up, have some hiccups towards the settlement, then go up till May 12/13 and then come down tumbling down the hill once more. Next recovery could then be in  beginning of June 2015.

Let us update our cycles and look at our waves...

  Observe the portion in turquoise colour and the mustard colored portion  both side of the point c..
We see tje cycle upto c was right translated and after c has been translating to the left. Left translating cycles are bearish.This means that the cycle after May 11, should see a good down move.
Why after May 11? Why not now?
This is because the blue cycle has been experiencing an inversion. Point d was a price bottom but blue cycle top. So for the inversion to be completed, we need a price top for a cycle bottom.And that is what I expect May 11 or thereabouts will bring in.Since the entire cycle is left translating, chances of prices piercing 8845 looks remote.
Further, the next blue cycle bottom  could see a significant bottom and the red cycle bottom could coincide with a bottom by June 2015! Iam running ahead of time..so let us wait and watch for these developments!

Let us look at our Neo waves...
1.If prices gap down from here, then we conclude that abcde had been an extracting triangle and the bull market is over.
2. Wave e had shown more weakness than expected. Its b leg, instead of being smaller and thrust upwards in its c leg, had considerably come down to negate the upmove by nearly 100%.So abc legs of wave e could form an irregular flat..If wave b ends here and wave c commences up, then it will be a Normal flat and the chances of retracing the entire down move from 8845 is bright. Now wave b could go down some more and then reverse. Still the flat will be valid, but then the bull would have become considerably weakened by then. 
3. After wave e, the next leg is f down. Since e itself shows weakness, I expect wave f also to be stronger in its downward thrust.
4. For the time being we expect wave c of e to commence and move the market upwards in a counter trend movement.

A couple of Gunner charts to show the angles...

  
Nifty has slipped out of its 45 degree uptrend line and is encountering resistance at the red arc.If 8250 is pierced then all bull bets are off and Nifty could fall to the 1x2 line.Circle shows the points where Time and Price square up.

Applying angles on the down move from 9119, we see Nifty resting at a crucial red arc and a 45 degree parallel line.A reversal could take it to 8650 levels.
Summing up,
1. Down trend is dissipating, but has not yet shown reversals.
2. Could reverse and move up for a couple of days and then come down for the Settlement.Volatility could be quite high.
3. Risk averse traders may not take any positions this week. If the market improves considerably, then take a small long bet..we can build on it later..

Once again..just don't anticipate. Let the price tell you that it is ready to move in your favour..  
Happy Trading! 

Mid Week Review April 20 to 24, 2015

Nifty opened the week on Monday, April 20 at 8619 and immediately started falling.Till it reached 8286 today before a short covering counter move pushed Nifty to close at  8430.This forms a hammer head pattern on the daily candle and that is a positive. This means that the down move gets slowed down a little for the time being.
Astro aspects look interesting....

 Four out of six aspects point to a trough formation between 22 to 27 of April 2015.Most important ones are Jupiter direct and Pluto retrograde. Both may cause a reversal which could gain considerable strength later on.

Hourly price movement has spiked downwards through the Lower BB. Generally this leads to a reversal, when confirmed by other indicators.Momentum shows positive divergence which has manifested as upward price movement.

Clearly more follow up buying is required on the daily scale.

Nifty has slipped out of the Central 45 degree line and moving down along the red arc.Down move is also as per 45 degree lines. 45 degree parallel, below the main line offers support.Previous behaviors at red arcs have been highlighted.An energy jump is now required.
So we have covered our shorts today and are long in a tentative fashion...

Reliance Industries- Astro Technicals

Reliance has been like Kumbhakarna..Sleeping off for a long while and now all awake. Recent results were spectacular and there is renewed interest in the stock now.
Let us look a little more closely.

Lagna Lord Jupiter in the 11th and second lord Saturn in second house itself. 9th lord Mercury is in the 11th. Powerful combinations indeed. Reliance is a natural wealth attractor.
Reliance is currently experiencing Rahu Dasa Sun Sub period.Sun is the significator of 2 and 11, two houses linked with wealth. This period shall be till December 25, 2015.So it is clear that Reliance will greatly increase in value this year.
Reliance should take off once Saturn  becomes direct in the 11th house. This will coincide with Rahu entering Sun star later in the year. That will be a very fortunate period for Reliance.
Reliance is now an attractive investment stock for the medium term.
Looking at Technicals..

     We see that the long term chart is turning bullish. A buy signal on the monthly momentum chart is not to be taken lightly.Waves wise, also Reliance is experiencing a break out out of the constricted triangle which had been persisting   since 2009.

Weekly also is uniformly bullish..

Weekly chart is projecting a target of 1050.

Since the Daily chart is stretched, we may expect correction in the early part of this week and thereafter when Reliance starts moving positively, it  could be bought for handsome returns in the medium term.

 Hourly has to turn positive in its momentum,before new buying could be done.Long positions may be liquidated now and re entered late this week or early next week for big moves later on.
All in all, Reliance is now poised to help us make money in the market!