Nifty Stochastic Behaviour August 25 2014

30 Min is oversold-Daily is poised down and Weekly continues the uptrend.Any recovery in 30 min could lead to another correction.

Nifty Astro Analysis for the week Aug 25 to 28

For the week beginning today, August 25, 2014, we have some interesting Astrological combinations.
It is shown in the chart below...

How has Nifty reacted to some of these aspects in the past?

Here when Venus trines Uranus,  a short term reaction is seen within two days. That is the direction is powerfully reversed.Venus squaring Saturn also changes the trend quite strongly, after a few days.Mostly the reversal gets triggered with a Lunar event.September 13, 2012 was Venus trine Uranus. September 16th was a New Moon Day. Similarly Mars conjuncts Saturn on August 16-Moon perigee is on August 24th..There is another aspect-Sun opposite Neptune on August 24..and that triggers a market reversal, by August 24, within four days of Saturn Mars conjunction.

Here it can be seen, how bigger aspects take over and influence the smaller aspects such as Venus trine Uranus or Venus square Saturn.

Coming back to the present time, Sun opposes Neptune by August 29, 2014.Within the next two days, we should expect a market turn, because of the New Moon.If not, then most probably  by September 01 onwards, when Moon moves into Visaka star, in Libra and goes through the post conjunction Saturn and Mars.This is more likely, because market interests would prevent the market from falling, so close to the expiry.
 

Nifty Astro Technicals August 25 to 28, 2014

I continue my preoccupation with the long term trend, especially since Nifty has moved into uncharted territory.Looking at the bullish alternative scenario, on a monthly scale,from January 2008, Nifty had been forming an ascending triangle with a horizontal bias.Interestingly b leg is less than a leg. In fact e<d<c<b<a. So it is a regular limiting triangle. As per pattern implication, the thrust out of the triangle has to be 100% of the largest leg + or - 25%.Largest leg is of a ( 6357-2253 = 4104).Range of the thrust then is between 4104x0.75+5119   and 4104x1.25+5119, which is between 8197 and  10249.
With the long term correction ending at 5119, then we are in an impulsive atmosphere, with the wave 3 currently in progress.

Looking at the 30 min chart, we are looking at a different triangle altogether..
Here the triangle is irregular, because wave b was larger than wave a.So the thrust could be 1.618 times the length of the largest leg of the triangle.This puts the tentative target for wave g ( Iam maintaining the diametric counts for the time being ) around 8200.

Now, last week it was observed that Nifty is operating through uptrend fractals-that is of late, the uptrends seem to be lasting for 8 to 10 days.Friday, August 22, marks the end of a 10 day period.So we may technically expect a correction ( b of g) this coming week, before Nifty turns up once more  to move towards 8200.    
Additionally Nifty 30 min has been forming a megaphone pattern..it is also called a broadening pattern.This has short term bearish implications.Nifty could correct to 7820 levels or even to 7700 levels before the final upward c commences.

Of course, these are just projections. We will only take a trade after the market moves into a direction.And protect our capital with adequate stop losses.

Nifty Astro Technicals August 20, 2014

Nifty: The big picture

Nifty Daily: Fractal behaviour and  Stochastic Indicator :

Of late Nifty rises for 8 to 10 days easily before giving up.Such fractal behaviour has been highlighted.So the current uptrend, which is only 6 days, has some more steam left!

Stochastic Indicator:  Nifty seems to top out only when the Stochastic Indicator has hit a top and starts declining.Currently Stochastic Indicator has not crossed downwards yet.

Nifty 30 min:

 

Nifty Astro Technicals August 19, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 18 to 22, 2014

Nifty Astro Technicals August 11 to 14, 2014

This is how we concluded last week...

"Net, net, movement of c wave decides things for the time being. Astro indicates that the market could continue its negative ways till a turnaround happens by August 06 or 07."
We saw in the week just passed that wave c gave way to wave d on August 04 and 05th and then to a bigger wave e downward which has so far consumed three days, August 06, 07 and 08.
So what we have is now an expanding triangle with good down move  potential....

 So, increasingly we are getting into a " sell on rises" psychology , from a "buy on dips" situation.

This will be evident, if Nifty moves to 7200 levels swifty.If Nifty stalls at 7400 levels, and improves from there then we get to understand that one more upmove in Nifty could unfold.
So currently it is sell on rises strategy...

On daily levels,

On a weekly level...

So, on a larger frame, time cycles are changing.Nifty has gone without a meaningful correction for long.For the time being, Sell on rises as far as trading is concerned and selective investment picks seem to be a prudent approach to the markets.  

Aug  7, 2014                 Mars   trine Neptune  ( Trough by Aug 19 to 21)

Aug  8, 2014                  Sun  conjunct  Mercury 
Aug  8, 2014                    Mercury  trine Uranus 

Aug  8, 2014                    Sun trines Uranus  ( Trough by August 19 to 21)
Aug  8, 2014                   Mercury  square   Saturn 

Aug  9, 2014                 Sun square   Saturn ( Trough by August 22 )

Full Moon on August 10th, at 23.40 hours. This Moon is in Perigee, that means the closest to the Earth.So Moon could be pretty powerful tomorrow.

Aug 18, 2014                 Venus  conjunct  Jupiter  
Aug 18, 2014                 Mercury   opposition Neptune  

Astrologically, this week on Monday may begin with an upward bang, but may continue to weaken day by day, till August 14.The stars seem to indicate that a turnaround may happen only somewhere in the period Aug 19 to 22.
So I would look to " sell on rises."7700 upside and 7400 on the low side are broadly the range.If Nifty rises beyond 7605, then 7650 should be a good short, providing it weakens there.If 7700 is taken out on the upside, then probably the correction has ended on the downside and the upward g has started. We have to be careful on both sides because we are in a triangle environment.
   

Nifty Astro Technicals August 04 to 08, 2014

We had been expecting reversals for the past two weeks and Nifty did so a trifle rapidly in the past week.Nifty came down from 7841 on July 25 to 7603, on August 01, in just 5 trading sessions.Whether this is a correction or a trend reversal, only time will tell.I shall continue with my views and let you all decide. One thing is now very clear. When astro aspects bunch up and when there is also a technical confirmation, then surely there is an impact in the markets.
A look at the monthly cycles...

   This could coincide with the completion of diametric wave F and the beginning of wave G downwards.As usual it did not take much to dampen the sentiments of markets all over the globe.
Here are the weekly cycles chart...

In the monthly cycles chart,the last candle was not considered, because it pertained to August which had just begun.So in the coming four weeks, if the Weekly manages to close above 7422, the bullish trend will be intact. Any closing above 7800 will be strongly bullish.However, looking at the weekly technicals, it looks like some more downside may be achieved on a weekly scale, before we resume the uptrend.Weekly cycles also have reached their 13 week cycle which indicates some reversal.
Here are the Stochastics...

After several weeks of bearish divergence, Nifty Stochastics has turned down below the 70 mark.Critical support point shall be the 36.28 mark.These cycles an indicators are cautioning us not be overly bullish at this point in time...

Neowave counts are shown on the daily chart.We appear to be in the c leg of wave f of larger Diametric wave, F.Even though irregular corrections are comparatively rare,we will not discount the possibility, especially if Nifty weakens strongly this week also.If wave c ends above 5422, then it is an irregular triangle with the d wave moving upwards and a final smaller e moving downwards.Post the triangle then we could expect a 300 to 400 point rise.
Another more bearish possibility is, since wave b was larger than wave a ( wave a was 387 points, as whereas wave b  was 417 points), wave c could be equal to wave a- which means wave c could go down to 7454.So where wave c ends is an important point for post pattern analysis of Nifty movement.

30 minute chart makes things a little more clearer.Wave c of f had turned down from 7789 levels.Currently it is forming wave 3 of c.This means there is some more space to go down.

 Enlarged chart brings out the point that wave c is still not complete.Maybe it will go beyond wave a in vertical length on Monday before a bounce forming wave 4. Technically wave 4 should not cross the 0-2 trendline drawn above. Depending on the angle of recovery, that means Nifty should not bounce beyond 7660 for this impulse to be valid. So the prudent trade would be to go short with a stop loss of 7660, if Nifty bounces on Monday.Of course if the bounce is more than 7660, then the Irregular flat gets converted into Irregular triangle or Irregular c wave failure patterns, both of which are bullish.Then we buy with a stoploss of 7660.

To sum up, our trade decisions depend on what Nifty would do with the current c wave.
That brings us to Astrology.
Can the planets give us some indications then?

Net, net, movement of c wave decides things for the time being. Astro indicates that the market could continue its negative ways till a turn around happens by August 06 or 07.
Now let us wait and watch! If things happen the way we want, well and good. If not we get powerful lessons to  be learnt. Both are fine anyway.
Of course the regular disclaimers hold good. Trade with caution. No anticipation.Protect your capital always.
Have a great week.

Nifty Astro Technicals July 28 to August 01, 2014

As expected Nifty continued on its bullish ways and encountered some profit taking on Friday.However internals look weaker. Midcaps sold off much more than Nifty which itself was supported by some select scrips.
Let us see how the charts look like going forward...

Possibility 01, suggests that the upmove with much volatility, to continue this truncated week also.There could be a gap down on Monday due to global factors, but Nifty is expected to recover some more.As per Neowave, we are in wave b of wave f, which could terminate soon, possibly on August 01.Thereafter, wave c should commence as a down move..It could gather force once it crosses 7750-7730.
Another possibility is that we are in wave g of wave F which could move up some more and terminate wave F. Thereafter larger wave G should commence. This possibility can be confirmed only when the down move crosses 7422 convincingly on the downside.

These two charts above are daily charts.
Considering possibility one more favourably, and if we look at 30 min charts,

we see that wave b has enough complexity.

Here are the Fibo levels..

This is only after Nifty reverses decisively..
Let us look at Gann angles on a 30 min chart...

How does the weekly chart look with respect to Gann Angles?

We see that Nifty is rising towards the central median line, which has been turning points in the past...

If we consider Nifty cycles on a weekly scale....

We see that the previous significant low happened when the cycles phases shortened from 20 to 9 cycles.In the expansion phase, we are in the fourth phase..which is a final phase.Normal amplitude is 13 weeks and we have already completed 12 weeks. So a significant toip seems to be round the corner..

Here is a summation of all aspects till August 08, 2014...

July 21: Saturn turns direct on. Reversal period within 4 to 7 trading days)

July 22 Uranus turns retrograde (Reversal period within 4 to 11 trading days)

July 25, 02.30 am, Sun is conjunct Jupiter. Which means Jupiter is conjunct. Crest should form soon. Specific date July 30- Outer date August 08 2014.

July 26: Moon in Minimum Latitude

July 26: Jupiter in extreme declination

July 27: New Moon at 04:12 a.m.in Cancer

July 28 Venus opposes Pluto Crest formation within 2 days (July 30)

July 28:  Moon Apogee at 09.05 a.m.

July 29: Mercury enters Cancer at 04.31 a.m. Sun and Mercury will then be in the same sign. This means reduction in bullishness going forward in the immediate future.

August 01: Venus forms a waning trine with Saturn on.. Trough formation within 11 days

August 01: Venus forms a waxing square with Uranus. Trough formation within 9 days.  

August 01: Same day, Mars squares Jupiter. Trough formation within 10 days.

August 05: Venus squares Rahu

August 07: Mars waning trine with Neptune reversals within 5 to 7 days. Both trough and crests possible.

August 08: Sun conjuncts Mercury. On July 28th, the combust zone begins.

August 08: Same day Sun and Mercury are in waxing trine to Uranus.

Summation of what I expect to happen is shown in the chart below. But then Iam still evolving this indicator. So use it with caution. Anyway, no trading without stop losses or on anticipation, right?

Instead of elaborating the above in words, I have put the net expectation in this chart...

To sum up,

we expect Nifty to continue its up move this truncated week. There may be a down move on Monday which can be bought into.From August 04, Nifty is expected to reverse.

That could be either the final leg of wave f of F or wave g completion. If so we need to confirm if the move takes Nifty effortlessly beyond 7722.Personally I think one more upmove is pending in Nifty, the final wave g of F.

So trade carefully and enjoy the effort!

Next week, we will examine some KP Astro analysis...

Thank you for being my beloved readers..    

Nifty Astro Technicals July 21 to 25, 2014

For the long term we see that the 13 month cycle is quite important for Nifty and so the 13^th month will be September 2014. 

Since time cycles expand and contract, we give an orb of +_2 months. We are approaching a crest of significant proportions in the next two months.

Of course, we continue to believe that the very long term trend is quite bullish.

However the weekly picture looks a little wobbly. It appears that Nifty wants to relieve some of its overbought pressure

The daily picture is quite different…

There seems  to be that some more upside can be expected here…

Let us look at the wave counts….

Nifty had technically surpassed and closed beyond 7660, at 7664.This marks the 61.8% retracement for the fall from 7809 to 7422.So the odds that Nifty is forming a flat from the top of 7809 is higher now. Price, movements on Monday should confirm the picture. If so, f wave of the diametric is just on. It had completed one leg “a” at 7422 and currently it is “b”. This b wave could retrace anywhere between 61.8 to 80% where it will be a weak b wave. If it retrace 101 to 123.6% it will be a normal b wave and anything beyond that it will be strong b wave. We expect b wave to behave normally and later on go back to the base or beyond, as wave c of f, from where wave” a started. If so, then wave g of the complex corrective will unfold later on as an upmove.

So we expect the bull move to continue this week with volatility. July 24th and thereafter have to be watched carefully.

A look at the short term cycles..

As per this chart, we see that Nifty is close to a reversal zone..

When can we see trend reversal changes?

For that,

Let us examine the Astro picture.

Whew! What an array of indications!

Saturn turns direct on July 21, 02:05; 16 a.m. Crest formation is round the corner.( 4 to 7 trading days)

Uranus turns retrograde on July 22, 2014.(4 to 11 trading days)

On 22 July, Tuesday at 12.19 pm, Mercury will be in full opposition to Pluto. Market could rise towards this date and time.

July 22: Venus in extreme declination at 10.14 pm

July 23 : Moon in maximum declination

On July 23^rd, Moon will be in Magayeeram, in Taurus, with Sun in Cancer.                                     July 24: Declination extreme for Mercury

July 25, 02.30 am, Sun is conjunct Jupiter. Which means Jupiter is conjunct. Crest should form soon.

July 26: Moon in Minimum Latitude

July 26: Jupiter in extreme declination

July 27: New Moon at 04:12 a.m.

July 28 Venus opposes Pluto

July 28:  Moon Apogee at 09.05 a.m.

July 29: Mercury enters Cancer at 04.31 a.m. Sun and Mercury will then be in the same sign

Venus forms a waning trine with Saturn.. Trough formation within 11 days

This looks like the current uptrend could terminate by July 24 or 25, 2014.Then b would have been completed and the downward c should begin.

The next option is that the current upward wave movement be construed as wave g of the diametric.. In such a scenario, wave g has opened upwards and may continue for 3 or 4 days. But this count now looks improbable now.Closer to the New Moon, looks like an opportunity to create shorts, with stop losses.Last but not the least, allow price to move first in the direction of our expectation, before any trade steps are initiated.

Trade carefully!