By April 18th, we would have completed 55 days
from the recent top of Nifty-6111.80 of January 29, 2013.Since then we have
been seeing Nifty describing a diametric formation.
We cautiously surmised that when Nifty moved up from 5478,
we had probably seen the end of A leg. But when Nifty fell sharply from 5610 (5994,
to be exact) it was evident that there is some more movement left in the downward
A leg.
Within the limits of diametric movement what do we see?
In the words of the
great master, Glenn Neely,” Unlike orthodox Elliott Wave, which allows great
variance in the behavior, relationships and time consumption of specific
patterns, NEoWave imposes strict limits. Accurate forecasting can only be
accomplished when precise rules relating to price, time, complexity, behavior and
relationships are required of all waves in all patterns.
An important part
of the construction of 3-legged patterns (Flats and Zigzags) is that clear
alternation exists between the 3 segments on a time, complexity and behavior
basis. Since larger degree patterns (under NEoWave) impose maximum time
restrictions on smaller degree patterns, a developing (smaller degree)
correction only has so much time to unfold. If a correction is allowed no more
than 10 days to form (based on the next larger degree) and the market wants to
form a Flat, there can be great variance between waves A, B and C in TIME
during period. For example, wave-A might take 1 day while wave-B takes 6 days,
leaving 3 days for wave-C. This also follows the necessary TIME alternation required
in Flats.
On the other hand,
under the same 10-day time restriction, if a market wants to form a 7-legged
formation (such as a NEoWave Diametric), that leaves little room for time
variance between waves. Waves-A and B might take 1 day, while C, D and E take
2-days, which only leaves 1-day for waves-F and G. As a result, the more waves
a pattern contains, the more similar each must be to fit within the time limits
imposed by the larger degree pattern. From personal experience, the limit to
the wave "alphabet" is A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I, which forms a NEoWave
Symmetrical.
The reason waves-F
and G (and sometimes H and I) must be used to label some wave patterns is
because specific time and behavior characteristics are required of Flats and
Zigzags that are not present in NEoWave Diametrics and Symmetricals. Time
relationships during corrections are your primary tool for determining the kind
of correction unfolding. If the first 3 waves of a correction are very
different in time, a Flat or Zigzag is forming. As time between the waves
becomes slightly more similar, a Triangle is the next best choice. As the time
between waves becomes very similar (but price differences still exist), a
Diametric is your best option. If the waves are very similar in time and also
very similar in price, a NEoWave Symmetrical is your only choice.
Because all
corrections possess a specific "time behavior stamp," that is the
reason you cannot simply start a new ABC when you become uncomfortable with the
continuation of the correction. A completed ABC Flat or Zigzag must possess
clear alternation in time between all three waves. If that time alternation is
not present, a Flat or Zigzag is NOT forming, but a more complex formation that
requires the use of D and E, sometimes F and G and in rare cases, H and I.
In a NEoWave Diametric, the general rule is most wave
segments tend toward equality in time, but are different in price. For time
similarity to be most obvious, the complexity of the Diametric should not
exceed 55 monowaves. If it does, best to move to one higher time frame (i.e.,
one which is 5 times larger than the chart you are currently looking at - for
example, if the Diametric is visible on a Daily chart, but contains more than
55 monowaves, move to a Weekly chart and reassess the Diametric on that time
frame).
If the entire Diametric is less than 56 monowaves, then the
time variation between each leg of the Diametric will usually be less than
1.618% of the time of an adjacent wave but more than 61.8% of the time of an
adjacent wave. Keep in mind, there is usually one exception to this rule in
each Diametric where one segment is more than 161.8% (or less than 61.8%) of
the time of an adjacent wave.”
So, we look at two alternatives…
If there is a faster retracement of the last fall, then A is complete, with h and i. Or else we have one more x abc to be completed.
Weekly Bollinger Bands suggest that a reversal is on the cards this week...
Despite the negative sentiments prevailing because of negative expectations from IT sector, the technical picture is not all pessimistic.
Astrologically,
Mars, Sun and Venus have now moved on to Aries. Sudden movements could increase.On April 19, Venus sextile Neptune.On April 22, Venus opposite Saturn.
So bumpiness with mild up movements could happen.
Declinations also point out to a mild recovery this week.
.png)
