Nifty Astro-Technicals May 14 to 18, 2012

Last week, the fault lay with the physician and not the medical science! My own inadequate understanding of clusters of geocosmic signatures and  the effect of orbs of trading days were one of the causes of some faulty conclusions. I hope to rectify these from this week onwards. My only consolation is that we have come quite a distance from the first blog days in terms of our understandings of the market from an astro technical point of view...

May 14 to 18, 2012

Lunar events:

Moon crosses the Equator from South to North on May 14^th. This could signal a short term reversal of trend.

May 13^th is the third quarter moon. One week before the New Moon. Since the Super Full Moon did not stop the down trend, it is sometimes seen that the next quarter moon could act as trend slowing factor, Super Moon (when the Full Moon coincides with Perigee-Moon being closest to the Earth, excitability could be at its highest. This could be one reason that the trend simply accelerated downwards past the Full Moon.

Moon will be the farthest from the Earth on May 19^th.Excitability and volatility could be expected to be at its relative   lowest by the next weekend.

On May 13^th to May 21, Moon`s True Nodes turn into their customary retrograde motion. This is also taken as a reversal indicator of price trends.

On May 14^th and 15^th, Moon is in Pisces with the Sun in Taurus.( Both are Sayana positions.) Markets could reverse direction for the short term, because of Pisces being a watery sign.

On May 16^th, 17th and 18^th, Moon is in Aries with Sun in Taurus. This also corresponds to a short term trend reversal from a trough.

So, most of the lunar aspects are indicating that a short term trend reversal is on the cards. But as traders, let us wait for the price action to confirm this probability. If the price closes above 4969, possibly we should watch closer to see whether shorts should be reduced.

May 14 to 18, 2012

Planetary Aspects:

The week begins with a powerful Sun-Jupiter conjunction. Sun has started separating from Jupiter in fact. Saturn is at an evil 150 * away from Sun and Jupiter. This could reduce the reversal effect, but it still may have a positive influence .Effect is generally in four trading days. This also seems to spell reversal.

On May 17^th, Retrograde Saturn and Retrograde Venus form a waning trine ( 240*) from Gemini to Libra. Generally this correlates with longer cycles forming a trough. Effect is seen within 5 to 12 trading days. This could indicate markets rising this week only to weaken next week or the week after next into a trough, marking the end of a rather long weekly cycle which began on December 23, 2011. Current week is the 20^th. Usually the cycle stays within 15 to 19 weeks. Since this cycle has expanded or elongated Iam wondering if any other underlying long term cycle is causing the distortion? After all we have some pretty strong signatures coming up in the rest of the month and in June 2012.

On May 16^th, 2012, Mars forms a waning trine with Pluto. This is the return trine formation. In March, when the Grand Trine was formed, Mars was retro and Pluto was direct. Now it is vice versa. This also points out to a cycle culmination within 7 trading days. Especially, if prices are falling into this trine band. So observation meant for Venus-Saturn trine holds good here as well. See the price chart for better illustration.

Venus goes retrograde on May 16^th.It becomes direct on June 28^th, 2012. Generally Venus Retrograde suggests reversals from a crest formation but if prices are falling into the retrograde period, then troughs are also likely. Again 4 trading days is the orb. What is of significance is that several separate astrological aspects indicate a short term reversal from the current downward direction and then a bigger trough formation later in the month. (Price must confirm all of these observations. This is why I trade by my red and blue lines in my charts and wait to see these events unfolding, to add to my confidence.)

Critically, Uranus and Pluto have started to come closer. They will be within 2 degrees on May 17^th, 2012.While I do not expect any immediate trading issues, economic and financial cycles of long term nature could get affected and the effects will start manifesting in the months to come. Saturn and Jupiter being in QC (150* apart) also weakens the investment climate.

As per KP,Ayanamsa, Saturn will retrograde into Virgo on May 17^th, 2012. This backward motion of Saturn could cause pessimistic movements in the markets next week.

As per Vimshottari dasa, Venus Antara of Ketu Bhukthi, Rahu Maha dasa ends of May 17^th. Up to June 06^th it is Sun Antara. Sun is currently in the 10^th as per transit. Towards the fag end of the Antara period, Sun will conjunct, natal Jupiter and also move into the 11^th house of Nifty Futures chart. So closer to June 6^th, maybe there will be some recovery after some fall before?  

In a nutshell, my take is to wait for the price to bottom out and turn up probably on Tuesday. Temporarily cut some shorts and ride the bull upwards, on double confirmation of prices, as suggested in other charts posted today.. Depending on price position on Friday, reduce the longs and exit all positions.

Nifty -May 07 to 11, 2012

Lunar and Planetary Aspects May 07-12, 2012

·         Moon reaches its Southern declination and reverses upwards on May 07, 2012, Monday.

·         Moon`s declination crosses Mercury`s on May 09^th and Neptune`s declination on May 11^th, 2012.

·         Venus continues to be Out of Bounds for the whole month. This will increase Venusian energy and make the markets more volatile.

·         Moon will be full on Sunday, May 06^th. It will be in a Perigee position (closest to Earth) on Sunday. This is called a Super Moon and probably this is why the world markets came down rather heavily on Friday, May 04^th, the last trading day of last week.

·         Nodes are direct from May 08 to 12, 2012.

·         Rahu-Mars square having done its price damage last week are separating this week. By 09^th May, this aspect is completely over.

·         Rahu trine Uranus and Ketu sextile Uranus however continues till end of the week.

·         On May 07, 2012, Mercury Saturn opposition would start waning. Venus trine Saturn will begin.

·         By 15.30 hrs, Moon will be trine Uranus and square Mars.

·         On May 08, market opens with a Sun-Moon quincunx.

·         May 07 & 08, Moon is in Sagittarius, Sun in Taurus, Mercury in Aries and Venus is in Gemini. This combo doesn`t qualify for a big reversal. But Sagittarian moon can increase volatility and range moves.

·         On May 09, positive aspects dominate. Moon trine   Mercury: Moon trine   Neptune: Venus trine Saturn. Moon moves into Capricorn. Volatility could reduce once again.

·         On May 10, Mars begins its trine with Pluto. The positive move of May 09 could continue.

·         May 11 and Jupiter begins a QC formation with Saturn.

·         As per Vimshottari Dasa system, Nifty is in Rahu Maha dasa-Ketu Bhukthi-Venus Antara and Mercury Sookshma, up to May 14^th.Since Mercury is not a favourable planet for Nifty to make big positive moves, Nifty may not see any great reversals. All reversals talked about may only reduce the negativity. In net terms, Nifty could still be in negative territory, but off the lows of last week, by week end. 

·         In a nutshell, Nifty could move lower on Monday, reverse on Tuesday and continue upwards till Friday, where the magnitude of the up move is lesser than the previous week down move. May be 5279 will not be taken out, on the upside?

Nifty April 30, 2012

April 30 to May 04, 2012

May 02: Moon crosses the Equator at 0 degrees from the North to the South.

Moon intersects the declinations of Mercury and Pluto on May 01, 2012, before crossing the Equator.

First quarter Moon is on April 29, 2012.

Moon has its Perigee on May 06, 2012 at 09.03 am.

Full Moon is also on May 06, 2012, at 09.05 am, it is a Sunday.

Market reversals may be expected on May 07, Monday.

Nodes are direct from May 08 to May 12, 2012.  

Other Aspects:

1.  Sun is separating from a trine with Pluto.

2.  Mars is closely square the Nodes. It is applying QC with Uranus.

3.  Moon is square Jupiter at the opening bell.

4.  Uranus has started moving away from the trine aspects with Rahu and sextile with Ketu.

5.  With no other major aspects happening, it looks like Mars will take the markets down with its square aspect of the nodes.

    Since we start with a Moon Square Jupiter, the market could open weak. More weakness from 10.30 am.Things steady between 11.30 to 12.30 pm. Rise from 12.30 pm to 1.30 pm.Then bearishness begins again to the close.Some small recovery in the last 15 minutes. Please read this post in conjunction with the previous ones posted today and know the context.Since I expect the Mars Rahu square to accentuate bearishness, falls can be stronger than rises. 

   Probabilities  for rest days of the week shall follow today evening. Paucity of time was the culprit. 

Current Sookshma period for Nifty

Nifty futures is currently in Rahu Dasa-Ketu Bhukthi-Venus Antara-Saturn Sookshma, from April 24 to May 05, 2012.Based on past history and current planetary combinations what can be a probable outcome, in the near future?

We are in the time band for a weekly cycle low.The current week beginning April 30, 2012, is the 19th week from December low.The cycles have been in the periodicity of 14 to 19 so far.We may logically expect a low to be formed any time now.How would we know the low is in? When the recent top for the week of April 20, which is 5342 is taken out decisively, we will know.
Astrologically, the only powerful aspect in vogue, is the Mars- Rahu- Ketu square, which will be exact on May 01,2012, around 1.50 pm.So this corresponds with the low formation requirement.First quarter Moon was on April 29.Moon also will cross the Equator on May 02.So maybe Nifty will fall quickly in a couple of sessions to 5135 or 5080 ( 61.8% retracement of the rise from 4531) and reverse back upwards later in the week, especially the latter half of the week, with a particular preference for Friday. Since the current Bhukthi lord Ketu has only a short dasa duration, his antara periods also will be small.Interestingly the Antara period of Venus ends on May 17, 2012. In the same time band, Venus is turning retro.Sun will conjunct Jupiter.We also have a partial solar eclipse around May 20.So that mid month period is going to be very critical.    

Effect of Venus Antara- Saturn Sookshma, on Nifty

From April 24,2012 23.0.20 hrs to May 05,2012,20-41-44hrs, Nifty will be having Rahu Dasa,Ketu Bhukthi,Venus Antara and Saturn Sookshma. How did Nifty react during similar Antara-Sookshma period in the past? Here is an analysis:Let us look at 2003,2005,2008 and 2012, before understanding what can happen in 2012.
 

 Among the dasa lords, Sookshma lord Saturn is in 2nd, but retrograde.Antara lord Venus is in 5th.And Rahu is in seventh. None of the dasa lords are in great improving or reducing positions.Hence the trend is confused, but initially with an upward bias.

During 2010 transit,Rahu was in 5th, Mercury in 10th,Venus in 11th and Saturn in 03rd.We shall see 2012, in the next post....

Nifty April 28 2012

Nifty Cycle update

Nifty weekly cycles from 2008

Nifty Astro Technicals week beginning April 23, 2012

Lunar Events of the week:  (Zero Ayanamsa)

1. Moon reaches the highest Northern Declination on April 25, 2012 and reverses direction southwards.

2. Moon intersects Jupiter`s declination on Friday, April 27, 2012, during its southern journey.

3.Moon`s True Nodes turn direct on Tuesday, April 24, 2012 and will remain in direct motion till Sunday, April 29, 2012.

4. Moon reaches its Apogee position on April 22, 2012. This is a reversal sign from the low of last Friday.

5. Moon is in Taurus on April 23, 2012, in Gemini on April 24 & 25 and in Cancer, on 26^th and 27^th.

Other Planetary Events of the Week:

The slower but potent astrological aspects which continue to draw attention happen to be the oncoming square aspects between Mars, Rahu and Ketu. This square will be exact on May 02, 2012.Meanwhile the negative QC aspect between Uranus and Mars also will be exact by May 08, 2012.  The next major astro signature is Venus retrograde, on May 15, 2012.Rahu dasa, Ketu Bhukthi, Venus Antara and Jupiter Sookshma ends on April 24, 2012. Next is Saturn Sookshma, which will end on May 05, 2012.This is expected to be better than Jupiter Sookshma.

·         Sun having moved into steady and stable Taurus, on April 19, 2012, continues to imbibe Taurean qualities.

·         On April 23, 2012, at 09.15 am, Uranus and Mercury are powerfully conjunct in Aries and Rahu forms a trine with both of them. Neptune trines Sun. At 15.30 hrs, Sun in Taurus, is conjunct (approaching exact conjunct) with Mars, in Virgo. Venus squares the Ascendant towards close of the markets. As per KP, Moon is in Karthika star and Sun is in Aswini. Ascendant is in Leo Amsa and Sun is in Gemini Amsa- 11 th to the Ascendant. This is also the first trading day after the New Moon on Saturday. The markets may open positive and show a slight fall from the highs on Monday.

·         On April 24, 2012, at 09.15 am, Sun is still trine Mars, but has started moving away from the trinal exact point.  Moon emerges from a square position with Mars. At 12.40.12. pm Moon conjuncts Ketu in Gemini. True Nodes turn direct today. As per KP, Moon is in Rohini, in the sub of Mars. Ascendant is in Virgo Navamsa and Moon along-with Ketu is in Aries, eighth position from the Ascendant. Nifty may open positive and soon end in negative territory today.

·         On April 25, 09.15 am, Rahu in Sagittarius, squares Sun in Taurus. Mercury begins to square Pluto. Venus conjunct Moon at the opening. Mars Rahu square gets closer than one degree (They are 90.84 deg apart, in fact).By 15.30 hrs. Mercury forms a positive biquintile aspect with Mars. Jupiter is trine the Ascendant whereas Venus is square. As per KP, Moon is in Rohini till 09.38 am and then moves into Mrigasira, ruled by Mars. With Mars in a negative aspect with the nodes, this looks like another negative day. However since Mars, Moon and Venus are in Cancer Amsa, to the 11th in Virgo, markets may recover towards the end, yet still be negative.

·         By April 26, 09.15 am, Moon is void of course and by 09.45 am, Moon moves into Cancer. And by 16.38 forms the first aspect in Cancer- which is a trine with Neptune. As per KP, Moon is in Mars star and Mars is in Ketu star. Also Mars has its Amsa at the 11^th position from the Ascendant. Maybe the market will start flat and improve towards the end.

By April 27, 2012, 09.15 am, Moon forms a square aspect with Mercury. Moon also opposes Pluto. By 15.30 hrs, Pluto and Sun would begin their trine formation. As per KP, Moon is in Thiru Aadhira, ruled by Rahu. Rahu is in Saturn star and in Libra Amsa, the second from Virgo, Ascendant Amsa house. Nifty could go down first and then turn green.                                                                                 Technically, The second phase of the 4 year cycle had begun in earnest on December 20, 2011. First weekly cycle of 18 weeks is over and we are in the beginning of the second cycle.Because of some negative planetary overhangs, such as Mars Rahu square and Venus turning retrograde by mid May, this cyxle may take off a little slowly, but steadily.                                                                                                     

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A Look at Nifty Weekly Cycles

Nifty seems to follow a 14 to 15 week cycles, counted from trough to trough.Taking stock from March 2009 lows ( to capture the newer trends incorporated in Nifty movements),the smallest cycle was 10 weeks and the largest was 19 weeks. We are entering the 17 th week on April 16, 2012, for a cycle beginning December 19, 2011.With Pluto retrograde and Mars turning direct it looks like a cycle  low is soon due.