Nifty-Technicals January 19 to 23, 2015

January 12 to 16 was a roller coaster, with a totally surprising Reserve Bank announcement of a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates on Thursday and signaled it could cut further, amid signs of cooling inflation, provided the government continues to take steps to contain the fiscal deficit.

This was our observation last week...

“Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....

So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the weekend. Next week maybe we have another low (double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.  "

As expected, from a high of 8356, during the week Nifty formed a low of 8237 on January 14th and within the next two days reversed powerfully to hit a high of 8527 the very next day before closing the week on Jan 16, on 8514...A remarkable turn of events indeed.

So what is in store for this week?

Let us look at the technical picture first….

Nothing has changed as far as the wave counts are concerned. The sudden spurt last week has simply made wave b of b a little longer.Also the horizontal triangle expectation now does not exist..On the other hand, inside wave b we see an expanding triangle formation.We still continue to expect wave b of b to top out and commence c of b downwards..

Let us look at this daily chart a little more closely...

We see that wave a from 7724 to 8627 took 31 days.Wave b from 8627 downwards has so far also consumed 31 days and we still have the last  leg downwards, ongoing,...wave c of b.

Wave c of b has begun from 8446 down. This a leg was quite violent and from 8065, b leg has opened upwards. It has so far consumed 466 points and has reached up to 8531.While wave a, ( 8446 down) was a 3 day affair, wave b has so far taken, 7 days, with maximum movement in the last two days.( actually one day, on Thursday). So technically, wave b has taken more than twice the amount of time as wave a and so it quite mature, may be ready to top.This entire abc formation is taking the shape of a flat with a normal b wave so far.Upto 123.6% of wave a is considered normal for wave b.

So wave c of c of b should begin down sometime this week.

Only after that, do we expect wave c of xabc to open upwards. 

Looking at the momentum charts,

All the momentum charts are showing an uptick, which means there is some more upside left before a turn down.However the weekly momentum chart is hinting the possibility of a fractal repeating itself. Momentum ticks are also close to the respective red bands...

Drawing Gann lines and arcs on the medium term chart of Nifty, we cautiously expect that Nifty may face a down cycle immediately, followed by a volatile cycle with positive bias and a clear green trend  from end of March 2015.

To sum up, our technical outlook for the week is that Nifty may go up some more, but top out sometime early this week and seek lower levels. We may book profits if and only if we see three continuous down ticks on the hourly charts.

Happy trading !

Astro Technicals-Larsen and Toubro

LT ia a prestigious stock, and I have fond memories of this one. This was one of my earliest winners, way back in 1991/2.One of our friends has been asking about this stock and so let us see how this one looks like now.

LT peaked with Nifty, in 2008, fell with Nifty to March 2009, then rose with Nifty to November 2010,and then fell again to December 2011.From 2012, they parted ways. LT fell lower than 2011 low, shown as C in the chart whereas Nifty was much higher than its own C of 2011.This has got everything to do with the Infrastructure pack itself losing favour with the market. LT was one of the better performing ones,   

Technically, LT is in the last wave of the diametric which had started from 2008 Jan.Wave G is slated to bottom out this 2015 and a new bull run to start.

That is when we should hop on to this band wagon, because Infrastructure could be in favour in 2016.

We get a better picture with the weekly chart.We expect wave b to drop down some more and then wave c of b to start up. When that completes, wave b would be complete and then wave c down should start in an abc fashion. When wave c completes, entire wave G also would be complete.

So the first move medium term could be down.

Daily also gives a similar picture. Maximum downside could be by 1350. That could be a good long term buy. LT also is a good medium term trade because it shows legs on both side.. up and down.

Aquarius is the 8th house for LT. First  Mars, then Venus, Sun and finally Mercury will pass through Aquarius in the next 2 to 3 months. That is a time of test for the stock.From March to August it is Jupiter and that is when this stock will start to accelerate.

We shall periodically review this stock. It is a good one to own, because of powerful planets in the 11th and 2nd houses. 

Nifty Astro Technicals January 12 to 16, 2015

Let us begin this week`s views by looking up at the skies first. What is seen is not a pretty picture. The skies are dark and foreboding..

The week begins with a square of Pluto in Sagittarius with Rahu in Virgo and Ketu in Pisces.Already we have seen the destabilising effects of this aspect-The French shoot out and the resultant uproar..Western leaders are gathering in Paris and an estimated 1 million people are about to gather to express solidarity with the people who were killed by the terrorists. Already the event is assuming great importance in the annals of terrorism in the world. The reaction seems to me to be far greater than the event itself. French Police are on maximum alert. Do they know something which we do not know?
Being slow moving planets, Pluto, Rahu, and Ketu  will continue to be in aspects for a while. Even more ominous is that Uranus will join them by January 21. Already volatility is at a high in major markets of the world.
Venus and Mercury have been travelling together for a month now and from the weekend, Mercury will slow down in preparation for his retro movement from January 22 onwards and Venus will pull away. They tend to hold the market together when they are together and when they separate, financial markets tend to react.
Later on January 12th, Saturn ( as if we wanted this guy also activated!) in Scorpio begins to square Mars in Aquarius. The same day Mars will trigger the Blood Moon point of October.Aggression put down by cold, strict disapproval!  And Mars will react. This tends to pull down the markets and by the time Moon meets Mars on January 24, mostly before that a trough is likely to form.
By January 19th, Mars meets Neptune in Aquarius and all kinds of rumours will begin to float around and take a toll on volatility.
Rahu Venus Jupiter periods tend to give the market a lift up. But with a Venusian tail additionally and with Venus in Moon, I think the upmove may lose steam fast.
To sum up astro is indicating that because of these heavy aspects Nifty may come down till January 14th, and improve in the last two days.However, more negativity seems to be in store next week as well.

Technically, we look at the overall wave counts...

 Nifty has broken below the trendline connecting the two Xs.Wave b of b seems to have been completed and we are in wave c of b.This has one more downleg if b is a zigzag.
There is one more possibility...

We may also have a horizontal contracting triangle forming in wave b. If so the current upmove from 8065 is wave d and it may not reach 8446. Then we may see wave e downwards, going into the apex. Volatility has to considerably reduce for such a triangle to form.
Looking at the astro picture, Iam a little doubtful whether the triangle formation will continue. Alternate is the first option, where wave b of c terminates at the current closing of 8285 and wave c of c begins down on Monday, violating 8065..
Looking at the weekly momentum, it seems to have lost its upward zing a bit....

So we have an interesting week ahead. My bias is a negative for a low formation and improvement towards the week end. Next week maybe we have another low ( double bottom or lower low) after which the much expected wave c upwards may begin. This might well happen when Mercury is well and truly retro.
Current aspects are personally bothersome as well. Please keep your cool, drive safely and above all, operate only with stop losses.
A wonderful Pongal and Makara Sankranti wishes to all my dear friends!

Astro Technicals Suzlon Energy Limited

Astro Technicals Aurobindo Pharma

This stock had an amazing run from 2013 August onwards. The stock zoomed from 138 to as high as 1179 today!
Let us look at two long term charts of Auro..

We see the stock is in an extended third wave,and that at 1238, this will achieve 4.854 times the 1st wave from a mere 20.Interestingly, the long term cycle top also seems to indicate 1238..

In this chart we see Auro reaching out to the 67.5% line and often when a stock breaks the 45 line, it tends to move towards the next logical target.It is also customary for stocks to start falling back once it touched the 67.5 line. Fall back is generally towards the 45 line.
Keep in mind this is a monthly chart. So the moment the trend changes down, it would be the 4th wave in operation. Those who have invested in 2013 and 14 may book profits around 1238 levels.
After that the stock seems to have a prolonged down trend for a year or so, and then picks up steam sometime in September 2016.

Sun Mercury dance update Jan 05, 2015

In my post of December 07, 2014, in the link,
http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2014/12/sun-mercury-dance-beginning-in-second.html

I had mentioned about December 07/08 being a date of commencement of market correction..
Often times such corrections which begin when Sun and Mercury are conjunct, ends with Mercury becoming retrograde.
Mercury becomes retrograde on January 22, 2015....
Here are the charts....

Here is the current update.....

January 22, 2015 seems to be a very important date....for a low?

Mars in Aquarius -05 January to 12 February 2015

Mars moved into Aquarius as per Indian system, today ( January 05, 2015) and will be there till February 12, 2015. He will move through the constellations of Mars ( own stars), Rahu and Jupiter. While he is in Aquarius, he will form a square aspect with Saturn,an 8th aspect with Rahu ( dreadful!), and will have a 6/8 relationship with Jupiter.He will conjunct with Neptune and Chiron, while in Aquarius.These last two aspects tend to rob Mars of his natural aggressiveness and will make things a little confusing.
How did Nifty react in the past to Mars transits in Aquarius?

Interestingly, Mars was involved with the Nodes in a square aspect then. Rahu in Libra and Ketu in Aries.Jupiter was retrograde in Taurus.

Mars in 2011, had a good relationship with Jupiter. Jupiter was placed in the second and with Rahu, even better-Rahu was placed in the 11th! Observe the difference in Nifty movements in 2011 and in 2013.

Chiron, Neptune and Mars were all conjunct when Mars begins his trek in Aquarius. A powerful trispect full of energy! Two of the planets involved are long term and Mars is a trigger.

Here is Nifty in 2001/2002:

Mars connects with both Rahu and Jupiter in trines, when he moves through Aquarius. Additionally Ketu and Chiron, two slow celestial bodies are conjunct in Sagittarius.This is the closest I got, for Jupiter in the north east quadrant to Mars.

Ok, this gets a little crazy..I went all the way to 1985 just to check what happens when Mars enters Aquarius and Saturn enters Scorpio?

Amazingly, that tell tale dip happened then also.

This is Mars in Aquarius, now...

So, whenever Mars entered Aquarius, we had a significant low being formed...Will we get another one now?
If so what could be the likely date?

See this chart of Jan 23, 2015...

Uranus,Ketu, Rahu and Pluto are all in aspects...all of them are slow moving...
In Aquarius, we virtually have a conference of 5 planets..Mars, Neptune, Moon, Chiron and Venus.

January 22/23, 2015 could possibly be a significant low...

Biocon Update

Here are the long term views given in September 2014 and an update now.. Essentially there is no change. Biocon is in its 4 wave of 3rd wave still. It is about to bottom out..

Given below is January 2015 view...

Similarly for Daily movements..

September 2014 chart...

We see that the 4th wave is on expected lines.

Question is, Is the 4th of 3 over? When will the 5th of 3 start?

  Technically, if the stock makes a faster retracement to the last movement in the opposite direction, then we conclude that 4th is over.

Astrologically, we see another bottom approaching.Ketu, the common factor in all Biocon bottoms, is yet again getting connected to a slow moving planet, Pluto and is conjunct Uranus, within a week. So we may watch this stock for a retracement. 

Nifty Astro Technicals January 02 to 09, 2015

A very happy, wonderful and prosperous New Year to all my friends!
Let the markets oblige you in the way you dream them to oblige you and let your cash registers ring throughout the year!
I had taken a much needed break, with my family and took my mind off from work and trades, for a while.
Now Iam back, in time to welcome the New Year and let us see what the markets have in store for us..
After nine straight

months of uptrend, Nifty formed a large red candle in December 2014.

As the fork indicates, if Nifty closes below the lower handle in January, then we can be reasonably sure that this uptrend is coming to an end for some time to come.Investors should take note of this formation and if this happens, then it is time to get out of the market and into cash...

Reading both the charts together, we conclude that there is some more up move pending, but that could likely be weak and could culminate in a prolonged down move.

Coming to the dailies,here is the cycles chart.The last cycle has bottomed out on December 26th and the next cycle has begun.Momentum is always less when a cycle begins, and we are seeing that in the market.Also this time round both the 23 day as well as the 108 day had come together and the resultant vector addition of energies could be the reason for a big downfall from 8627.
The current cycle exhibits a fractal resemblance to a period in the past...The connections and the projection to a new low before January 22, needs to be keenly watched.

Looking at the angles,

 we can see that, in hourly chart, Nifty is hovering between 89 and 223 MA values. If Nifty breaks down below 8240, then it could fall till 8100 levels. If it crosses beyond 8339, then it could go upto 8500. My bet is in the former, that of Nifty breaking below 8240...It looks increasingly likely, that in the very short term, Nifty could form a bottom on the 22.5 degree upward sloping line.
Time wise, 203 hourly bars have been consumed since the 8627 top. Since the upmove from 7724 had taken 247 bars, we have another 44 bars left to equal the upmove, time wise.
This brings us the next chart, the hourly neo wave chart...
As shown below we are in b of b, after which we have another down wave which will be c of b.That should conclude wave b, after which the last wave, wave  c,   up should commence..This means wave c of b should start down move soon.

What do the stars say?

January 02:  Friday: 

Red phase begins.

Max declination on Jan 03. Mars in Capricorn opposes Jupiter retrograde in Cancer. Sun squares Uranus first and then conjuncts Pluto over the weekend.

January 05: Monday: Full Moon and Minimum Latitude. During this Full Moon, Sun squares Rahu and Ketu and so does Moon.

January 06 & 07: Pluto at extreme distance. Mars enters the mid-point between Pluto and Uranus. Pluto begins to square Rahu and Ketu.    

January 08: Uranus begins to conjunct Ketu and oppose Rahu.

January 09 Friday: Mercury and Venus begin their close conjunction.

 This will continue upto Jan 17th.

In the meantime, Mercury is losing its speed rapidly and getting ready for becoming retrograde on January 22, 2015.

Moon reaches its farthest point from the Earth.

Starting from January 02, till January 10^th, we are destined to go through some heavy afflictions. The sky is in ferment, no doubt. What is more important is that long term planets are getting into hard aspects to one another. Pluto, Uranus, Rahu, Ketu….

Astrologically, this period favours the bears. Be careful of your long positions. Since Mars is involved there could be sudden and rather heavy down moves.

Somehow I get the feeling that this longer term uptrend  is going to end very soon…When slow planets get into aspects, that is an ominous sign.  

So trade carefully with proper stop losses in place. 

Nifty Dec 23 A triangle in the making?