For the long term we see that the 13 month cycle is quite
important for Nifty and so the 13th month will be September 2014.
Since time cycles expand and contract, we give an orb of +_2 months. We are
approaching a crest of significant proportions in the next two months.
Of course, we continue to believe that the very long term
trend is quite bullish.
However the weekly picture looks a little wobbly. It appears
that Nifty wants to relieve some of its overbought pressure
The daily picture is quite different…
There seems to be
that some more upside can be expected here…
Let us look at the wave counts….
Nifty had technically surpassed and closed beyond 7660, at 7664.This
marks the 61.8% retracement for the fall from 7809 to 7422.So the odds that
Nifty is forming a flat from the top of 7809 is higher now. Price, movements on
Monday should confirm the picture. If so, f wave of the diametric is just on. It
had completed one leg “a” at 7422 and currently it is “b”. This b wave could
retrace anywhere between 61.8 to 80% where it will be a weak b wave. If it
retrace 101 to 123.6% it will be a normal b wave and anything beyond that it
will be strong b wave. We expect b wave to behave normally and later on go back
to the base or beyond, as wave c of f, from where wave” a started. If so, then
wave g of the complex corrective will unfold later on as an upmove.
So we expect the bull move to continue this week with
volatility. July 24th and thereafter have to be watched carefully.
A look at the short term cycles..
When can we see trend reversal changes?
For that,
Let us examine the Astro picture.
Whew! What an array of indications!
Saturn turns direct
on July 21, 02:05; 16 a.m. Crest formation is round the corner.( 4 to 7 trading
days)
Uranus turns
retrograde on July 22, 2014.(4 to 11 trading days)
On 22 July, Tuesday
at 12.19 pm, Mercury will be in full opposition to Pluto. Market could rise
towards this date and time.
July 22: Venus in
extreme declination at 10.14 pm
July 23 : Moon in maximum declination
On July 23rd,
Moon will be in Magayeeram, in Taurus, with Sun in Cancer. July
24: Declination extreme for Mercury
July 25, 02.30 am,
Sun is conjunct Jupiter. Which means Jupiter is conjunct. Crest should form soon.
July 26: Moon in Minimum Latitude
July 26: Jupiter in
extreme declination
July 27: New Moon at 04:12 a.m.
July 28 Venus opposes
Pluto
July 28: Moon Apogee at 09.05 a.m.
July 29: Mercury
enters Cancer at 04.31 a.m. Sun and Mercury will then be in the same sign
Venus forms a waning
trine with Saturn.. Trough formation within 11 days
This looks like the current uptrend could terminate by July
24 or 25, 2014.Then b would have been completed and the downward c should begin.
The next option is that the current upward wave movement be
construed as wave g of the diametric.. In such a scenario, wave g has opened
upwards and may continue for 3 or 4 days. But this count now looks improbable
now.Closer to the New Moon, looks like an opportunity to create shorts, with stop losses.Last but not the least, allow price to move first in the direction of our expectation, before any trade steps are initiated.
Trade carefully!
9 comments:
Time band 24th July to 7th Aug is important.
Nice Analysis Suresh.. adding to that Nifty is forming H&S patterning daily chart ...max I can see 7850, every opportunity would be for sell for positional player ...however... play with strict SL.
[IMG]http://i60.tinypic.com/23t31fk.png[/IMG]
Please find the analysis here: http://tinypic.com/r/23t31fk/8
I agree. Mercury will be conjunct with Sun then. Bullishness tend to disappear once Mercury moves away from the Sun. But I had wanted to take it one week at a time!
Thanks for your comment.
Thank you Mohanty. I had a look at your link. Negative divergence also is beginning to develop in the 14 day RSI.We should first wait for Nifty to reverse from a height. Let us see how far she will go..
really ! market dancing at yr tune! c in process with b ending at 7841? whats target and time frame?
Nice to see you after longtime ... As usual wonderful, simple and crystal clear analysis.. Hoping to learn many more things in coming days.. Tc ..
Thank you Pankaj.My love affair with our markets goes back to 1990.Most of the time she has made me dance to her tunes! But then every time I dance I learn something from her..Nifty. she truly is an enigmatic mistress!
Thank you for your comments, Leon..
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