See how beautifully and rhythmically the market functions!
From March 2015, Nifty moved down and gave a cycle bottom.Subsequent upmove from 6825 terminated at the time cycle circumference.Nifty moved down along the circumference and then away. It is now attempting to reach the circle again. When it does so, it will reach an inflexion point.It is likely to move down to gather strength to make a new bull move.Red line is the diameter of the time circle.
All this rhythm despite loud noises of demonetisation, Trump winning, Italian refrendum, Fed rate hike and what not!
6 comments:
Can nifty see touching 8614 in the december 2016 if gone past 8350 as given by you in your earlier chart clearing mentioning rally which started from 7921
I do not know which chart you are referring.. ( there are so many! ). As things stand, the up move has been hesitant and slow...so unless Nifty corrects once again and forms another bottom, a sustained up-move looks a little improbable. Long term is definitely bullish..but in December itself, 8614...I do not know.Please let me know the blog date..I shall elaborate further.
Sir. I am refering to your 30 november2016 post of Nifty wave count december 2016 further if you can share what kind of bottom nifty can see in december 2016
As that chart shows, the up move has been hesitant. This means the up move is corrective to the down move from 8598. 8349 levels are important resistance levels.If Nifty gets resisted here, then we may see a swift down move beyond 7916.7700 levels look to be the bottom. Probably by end December.I had shown the probable bottom levels in a different shade. If Nifty crosses 8349 with strong volumes, then anything may happen..including 8614. But the probability is more towards 7916.
Thanks for your viewa and guidance. How long do see nifty underperform global peer like dow and How much basis point do you see FED Rate hike going to happen. I think it should be 0.25 bps effective feb 2017
Our macro picture should clear first.For that the positive effects of demonetisation should become visible.GST should become implementable.These things need not happen. If the trend turns positive towards these, that itself will change market sentiment. Do note that despite such upheavals, our markets manage to hold their own.
Second factor is the currency factor. Dollar has become the fancied currency due to expectations of Trump factors of improving domestic economy, tax cuts etc.This comes at a time when US Fed is wanting to increase interest rates.The World expects that a .25bps increase will happen in December 2016. What will be of more interest is the tone of the FED. Will it clearly indicate future rises in 2017? If it does, then the dollar will continue to rise and that may not be favourable to Emerging Markets including India.At least for the time being.It will lead to more FII sell offs which can affect our market.
Now to the positives:
Bond markets have started unravelling after a long long time. Now this is a far bigger market than even the Equity market. Not all of the funds coming out will go into US Equity, especially since the markets there are quite high. Some of these monies may find their way into Emerging markets, provide our negative perceptions subside.
Another factor, Trump has been needling China with the Taiwan issue.China may decide to move out of the US Bond market. That could cause dollar to correct. Net, net, We may not outperform the Dow, but maybe from next month onwards, our 6825 bull should resume.
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