A look at Nifty Cycles

Nifty Astro Technicals Oct 29- Nov 02- Elliott Wave Counts

Technically we are entering an important turn zone for Nifty. By October 26, we have completed 14 days from October 05 top. Since Wave 3 took 20 days we expect wave 4 to take more than 20 days to complete. This means we are entering the maturity zone of Wave 04.

So far we haven`t seen significant price damage. In fact Nifty just about managed to breach the 5641 level a couple of times, but had always scrambled back into the oscillating zone defined by 5722 range as resistance.

Despite serious declines in S&P and the Dow, Nifty had shown negligible tendencies only (so far) to go down. This suggests that once wave 4 completes we may expect a normal wave 5 and not a truncated one.   

Here is a chart on some interesting Fibonacci phenomena in Nifty….

Here are my preferred  minor wave counts for Nifty, shown on a 30 min chart.It should be interesting to see whether wave b of C will cross 5719, the recent top.Any way 80% retracement to 5700 should be a sell area.

Have a great week of trading.

Nifty Astro Technicals October 29 to November 02, 2012

We are entering into a rather high energy and impactful November month, astrologically speaking.

Starting with the effect of Sun Saturn conjunction, upcoming Mars- Jupiter opposition, Venus- Uranus and Pluto in a T- square formation, Venus into debilitation later part of the month, Mercury getting retrograde, plus a total Solar Eclipse –all beginning with a Full Moon on October 30 early morning.

Phew! The heavens are quite active this month! 

Let us take this one mouthful at a time. We concentrate only on the week, October 29 to Nov 02, 2012.

Have a look at the macro   position tabulation below. Particularly the column named as Orb effect date. 

The conjunction of a debilitated Sun with an exalted Saturn at 8*23’’ of Libra could make the market go up and form a crest and then cause a reversal. The reversal because of this aspect is expected by November 02.

Mars Jupiter opposition is also a powerful force which could impact the market by this weekend. Venus Pluto-Uranus effect is expected only later this month and so we skip them for now.

We must also look at the Natal Planets of Nifty to understand any specific impact.

As can be seen from the tabulation above, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn combinations with Rahu are currently not good for Nifty because of their opposition effect.

Rahu and Ketu in single star formations are good. That two major planets, Saturn and Sun are currently in Rahu star and such a Rahu is in trine with Natal Rahu of Nifty is possibly what props up Nifty, astrologically speaking. This is of course my reading and I leave the conclusions to my learned readers.

To sum up, aspects wise, Nifty should improve up-to November 31 and then continue its fall. But the improvement and the fall may not be substantial. But enough to benefit traders, let us add.

Let us look at the Declinations:

·   Venus Uranus decl- conj on October 29 should push the market higher.

     Venus crossing from North to South should start a decline by October 31.

    Moon at the highest northern declination is a turning point for the market. We may expect an up move  on November 05.

      Next, let us look at the Full Moon chart of Nifty.

New Moon chart says that Nifty may bottom out by Nov 07 at 11.21 am.

End of Wave 4?

Wave counts will be covered in the next post. Daily Nifty Astro projections will be covered in the daily post.

Meanwhile let us not forget that we continue to be in the lunar red zone. Trade cautiously. Wait for price turns to happen and let us avoid anticipations.

Have a great week of trading!  

A long term view of Indian Markets- 2012

As short term traders we have our noses close to the market. Sometimes too close, so that we miss the trees from the woods. It is quite beneficial if we lift our heads from time to time and have a look at the broader view of the market. Of course we will go back to short term market analysis after this brief detour.

May of 1992 had marked a bull market peak. Sensex had moved from 1000 in the 1988s to 4500 in 1992. A fourfold increase.

Thereafter, a multi-year correction process started. It took the shape of a diametric ( A-B-C-D-E-F) which ended in 2001. Thereafter another multi-year bull market took off and raced up all the way to January 2008, taking Sensex from 2000 in 1993 to 20000 in 2008,- a 10 fold appreciation. From 1988 to 2008, Sensex had seen a 20 fold appreciation.

Let us look at the scenario after January 2008.Sensex had started a multi-year correction process. People had mistaken the recovery from March 2009 as a new bull market. But multi-year bull markets which have seen manifold increase in valuations, will always take a longer time frame for corrections.

Accordingly we are in the middle of the correction phase. We have completed A,B and C legs are currently we are in the diametric D. We still have three more legs to go E, F and G. How E, F and G will pan out is a matter of conjecture and we will know the entire shape only when we are closer to the formations. 

Now the Astro cycles indicate a contraction in the latter half of this cycle. So after 2016, when a top is very likely, the ensuing correction of G could be very sharp, just as we saw in 2008.

And in that terrible pessimism, the next new bull market could be born. By the time that one ends, valuations could easily be 20 times of what they are right now.

The main take away is that on a practical, larger scale, we are in a big and prolonged correction. But the legs are so large that a careful and astute trader can make money over and over again.

Meanwhile happy trading.

Nifty Astro Technicals for October 25, 2012

We had expected October 25, to be a "reversal -to -the -positive day and so it did. This despite negative clues and tell tale weakness in International Markets.
But global markets do move in tandem and sooner or later, the deviants fall in place.With lunar negativity strengthening, we may expect Nifty also to weaken from here on.

October 26th is the date, when the Lunar declination crosses from South to North.Moon is in Jupiter. We may expect Nifty to start reversing downward.

With today`s move there has been a rearrangement of the wave counts.

Blue zone is the minimum time period we expect current Wave 04 to travel. Post November 05, we should see the final fifth wave of C of Diametric D unfolding.

Let the new November series, be a very fruitful one! Trade safely, without anticipation- with stop losses!

Nifty Astro Technicals October 23, 2012

We had expected the lunar influence to cast a negative shadow on the market and it did.Nifty closed at 5691.40, 25.75 points down.My doubt was when Moon enters the sub of Venus which it did from  12:05:20 pm till 16:05:23 pm, beyond closing hours.Obviously Venus could have only a cursory influence because the Lunar effect is so negative.Briefly when Moon was trine with Jupiter,  recovery was attempted, but it only failed.
At the time of writing this post, I  looked at the Dow and had a shock-minus 254 points! Just shows how the negativity had increased throughout the day and affected other live markets.
October 25 is ruled by Rahu.Apart from Moon, both Saturn and Sun also are in Rahu. Transitting Rahu is in trine with Natal Rahu.Transitting Rahu is opposing Natal Jupiter.So a positive effect may be expected.

Moon reaches its maximum Latitude on Oct 24^th. Sun and Neptune are in decl-conj .Effect is seen usually one day after. We have no trading on Oct 24.

So Oct 25 could be a reversal- to-the-positive-day. Further, Saturn reaches its farthest distance, during this time. 

Let us see the charts:

The red band tells us that we are in the lunar negative zone for the rest of October.So first observation, we are still in a "sell on rises market."

Nifty is seen hugging the 1x2 Gann Angle line. It will break the Gann Angle line if it crosses 5677 on closing basis.

It is also seen oscillating around the 23.6% retracement line, which is 5673.83.

Any break here will first take it to the 5641 support line and a further break will bring it to 5585 levels. This is also the next Gann support line of 1X3.

Any up-move from here on Oct 25 will face stiff resistance from 5751.

Volume is constantly reducing, from Oct 05 onwards.Nifty futures are still trading at a premium of about Rs 4/-. So no appreciable large scale selling has taken place in equities.Yet there is significant short build up in the futures.If the roll over is not significant there could be some short covering on Thursday.

At this point wave c appears to be a triangle also. The waves have become complex. We need to see how the next set of waves unfold before deciding whether a triangle or a diametric is forming in Wave 4 of Wave  C of larger degree Diametric D. 

Wave 4 has consumed 12 trading days so far, from October 05.Since Wave 3 had taken 20 days we need to look at a minimum of 21 days for wave 4. This means we have another 9 more trading days for Nifty in Wave 4.It looks like we have time for wave d and wave e also to be formed.

But then the most interesting part is to see these patterns emerge, is it not?

Meanwhile happy and safe trading ( where we don`t anticipate but wait for price to show us the way ) to one and all! 

Nifty Astro Technicals Oct 22,2012

This is what we had written in October 21, Sunday post.

"..... Red period continues throughout Oct 22. Nodes which are direct from Oct 18, become regular retrograde on Monday, Oct 22, 2012, at 09.00.26 am. Will this bring a small trend reversal?

09.15 am to 11.20.04 am, Moon in Sun star, is in the sub of Mercury. Natal Sun is at QC with transiting Mercury. Negative opening expected.

At 11.20.04, Moon, in Sun star, moves out of the sub of Mercury into Ketu. Negativity should subside.

At 13.33.55 Moon moves into Sun star, Venus sub for the rest of the trading day. Venus is. Caution: Natal Sun is square transiting Venus. Natal Venus is square transiting Venus.

At 14.15 Asc moves into Saturn sign, Mars star. Moon will be in Sun star, Venus Sub. Natal Mars is trine with transiting Sun. So markets should improve from hereon.

Oct 23: Sun and Moon are in the same declination. Moon is in Moon star. On October 23rd lunar negativity should continue till 12.30 pm. By 12, 30 pm, downward momentum ought to slow down. If it doesn`t then the day could be negative...".

Nifty did move up to 5721.55 yesterday, before closing at 5717.15.As of now, on October 23,10.48 am Nifty is at 5705 at -11 points.

By 12.05.20 PM, Moon will move into Venus sub in Moon star,Will the decline continue is an interesting Astro question. An important lesson coming up.  

In the daily chart, 5677 is today`s Gann Angle support price. Nifty looks unlikely to break this today.

In the hourly charts, 5720 levels look very strong, Nifty having approached this level, at least 4 times in the  past several days. Wave c also looks like forming a diametric with the present day movement as minute wave d.

Nifty Astro Technicals October 22 to 26, 2012

Nifty`s wave 4 which began on October 04, continues to consume time without any appreciable price damage yet. In the bargain, the wave patterns are becoming complex and nearly useless from a positional point of view. Only the most nimble of day traders seem to be making money as of now. But then for followers of Elliott Waves, this is nothing new. Just trading the impulses and an occasional correction is more than enough to be satisfyingly  profitable.Complex corrections make us become more disciplined,enough to know when not to trade.

We continue with our analysis of Nifty movements

If Nifty breaks 5641 it would be breaking the baseline of the descending triangle as well as 1x2 Gann line.That would lead to 5585 levels.

Here are the preferred wave counts.Wave c of the corrective Wave 4 is likely being formed.

Astrologically, we are in the Lunar negative period for the rest of the month. Most important aspect this week is the conjunction of Sun and Saturn in Libra.

Let us look at this week, in detail:

Red period continues throughout Oct 22. Nodes which are direct from Oct 18, become regular retrograde on Monday, Oct 22, 2012, at 09.00.26 am. Will this bring a small trend reversal?

09.15 am to 11.20.04 am, Moon in Sun star, is in the sub of Mercury. Natal Sun is at QC with transiting Mercury. Negative opening expected.

At 11.20.04, Moon, in Sun star, moves out of the sub of Mercury into Ketu. Negativity should subside.

At 13.33.55 Moon moves into Sun star, Venus sub for the rest of the trading day. Venus is. Caution: Natal Sun is square transiting Venus. Natal Venus is square transiting Venus.

At 14.15 Asc moves into Saturn sign, Mars star. Moon will be in Sun star, Venus Sub. Natal Mars is trine with transiting Sun. So markets should improve from hereon.

Oct 23: Sun and Moon are in the same declination. Moon is in Moon star. On October 23rd lunar negativity should continue till 12.30 pm. By 12, 30 pm, downward momentum ought to slow down. If it doesn`t then the day could be negative.

Oct 24: Moon reaches its maximum Latitude on Oct 24^th. Sun and Neptune are in decl-conj .Effect is seen usually one day after. We have no trading on Oct 24.

So Oct 25 could be a reversal- to-the-positive-day. Further, Saturn reaches its farthest distance, during this time.

On October 26, Moon crosses the Celestial Equator, from South to North. Moon in decl- conj with Uranus. By 11 am, Moon moves into negative zone again. So Nifty may end the week on a negative note.

On a Universal scale there are not many aspects to discuss. Sun- Saturn conjunction is expected to take effect from October 31.Venus Jupiter square aspect should end on October 22. Aspects of import are listed here.

Exact Date	Planets	Aspect	Orb	Orb Effect Date	Expected Effect
08 Oct 07:18:00	Mars-Neptune (R)	Waning Square	Within 5 days or 8-12 days	Oct 12 or 17-23.	Dual effect, but mostly crests.
09 Oct 13:27:35	Venus- Pluto	Waning Trine	Within 5 trading days. Sometimes 11	Oct 16 or 25	Crest formation-Medium term effect
15 Oct15:40:00	Mars-Uranus (R)	Waning Trine	6 trading days	Oct 23	Not very strong or consistent. Crest formation, mostly.
17 Oct04:53:35	Venus-Jupiter (R)	Waxing Square	3 trading days, sometimes on the day of aspect.	Oct 19	Good trading signature. Dual effect.
25 Oct14:04:45	Sun-Saturn	Conjunction with Sun nearly debilitated	5 to 7 trading days	Oct 31 to Nov 02	4% reversals. Mostly crests. But some dual effects also seen.

As usual we recognize all these are conjectures. We will wait for the price action to confirm or negate these expectations and trade accordingly.

Wishing you all the very best, of what this festive season  has to offer!

Navratri

Nifty Astro Technicals for Oct 19, 2012

October 19, 2012, is the expected Lunar Reversal day.Please refer October 14th post for a detailed Astro analysis.
Let us look at the charts as of today:

Here are my preferred counts:

Wave 3 which started from September 06, 2012, had taken 20 days for completion. Wave 4 should therefore take a minimum of 21 days for completion.It has so far seen 9 days  of action as Wave 4.Major part of wave c, and possibly wave d and e are remaining, if Wave 4 traces out a triangle. If it is a diametric, we may see two more additional legs, f and g.
Sun-Jupiter waxing trine of October 09, will mature on October 19.This is an aspect generally associated with crests.Venus and Jupiter had also formed a waxing square aspect on October 17.This signature also may have its effect on October 19th.