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Saturday, May 16, 2015

USDINR and Nifty

Since FIIs are an important moving force in our stock markets and since they bring in dollars and convert them into rupees when they come in and vice versa when they go out, it may be useful to look at the currency and Nifty together.

So what is the next move in Rupee? How will it impact Nifty?




Long term timing lines from previous high and low appear to intersect Rupee movement at its current position. So USDINR may form an important top now and start moving down in the medium term. In other words, Rupee could start appreciating from now on, for the medium term.
This could be bullish for Nifty in the medium term, if the correlation continues.

Looking at Nifty medium term,
Line 1 is the long term timing line for Nifty. She had recently broken it downwards.
Line 2 is its parallel line, which also has been pierced downwards, making the near term trend as down.
Currently Nifty is moving down along line 3.As can be seen, the immediate resistance ahead is at 8400. If Nifty gets resisted here, she may travel along line 3 and reach line 5.This support rests at 7961.
She is unlikely to break this line. If she still does it then she may go to line 6 or 7.If Nifty breaches 8145, she will be in the second circle. Then look to 7961 confidently.  If Nifty breaches 8356, then look at 8546 confidently.
As per the Rupee chart, if Nifty bottom out now at these levels we can confidently invest for the medium term. I think June 2015 may provide us this opportunity.

8 comments:

  1. What about nifty making it's high on 15th and down trend resuming till 18th

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is a short term scenario. This is a medium term scenario. This should play out a couple of months from now.

      Delete
  2. Will that happen on nifty or that scenario is out .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sentences from the blog post:
      "Rupee could start appreciating from now on, for the medium term.
      This could be bullish for Nifty in the medium term, if the correlation continues."

      Delete
  3. The correlation chart is very well done. Thanks Suresh.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have posted an updated count of NIFTY in the Hourly timeframe on my neowave blog.

    ReplyDelete