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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Nifty changes patterns , September 2012

Nifty crossed 5634 on an intraday basis, went up to 5652, before closing at 5610. Automatically the terminal impulse we had been assuming so far, gives way to a Trending Impulse in the Nifty, wave 2 expands to form a modified wave 2 ending at 5217 which also is the beginning of wave 3.

Here is the chart.....


Here is the weekly chart....
And the hourly....
Since we are in a reversal time band, it is prudent to book some profits and wait for the next leg up, which could be early next week.


9 comments:

  1. We r in reversal time band 17 - 20 sept.. n next leg up which cud be early next week.. i didnt understand.. they sound contradictory statements to me... plz elaborate...

    thanx

    ratnakar

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Ratnakar,

    If you had seen few of my posts in the past week, you would have noticed the mention and depiction of a reversal time band.We expect the market to reverse here.Now on Thursday and Friday,markets were on a roll. Nifty took off nearly vertical, at 78* to the X axis. It also gapped up with double the volumes.
    But if you see the price action from Monday and Tuesday ( today) you may see the market cooling off and moving sideways.This cooling off could continue till the 25th of September, 2012.( In fact my feeling is that the corrections could continue till end of October 2012)
    In a strong trending market, a reversal will give a shallow correction or a sideways movement. But despite a strong uptrend, what bothers me is the sign of corrections for the rest of September.Hence the term reversal time band.
    Hope this clarifies your doubts.

    Warm Regards,


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello..

    Thanx for the elaboration... actually i ve no problems with the reversal band... what i got puzzeled of the last line of the above writeup.. " Since we are in a reversal time band, it is prudent to book some profits and wait for the next leg up, which could be early next week " .. so do u mean to say that we ll start next leg up .. next move up by early next week i.e. by 24- 25 sept.. plz explain..

    thanx

    ratnakar

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Ratnakar,

    This is what I had meant:
    1. As of last week, we are in an up-move. We now know it is the start of wave 3.
    2.September 17- 21, points to a potential reversal.
    3.Reversal could be a correction or sideways movement.( Initially, when I was expecting a terminal, I was looking for a regular correction.Now it appears to be a sideways movement, a typical 4th wave Flat.
    4. Reversal may lose its power by September 24/25.
    5. So we could see an up move. Mind you it could be a false up move such as a b wave in a corrective flat and it could subside fast.
    Since I have been trading very short term, two to three days, this represents an opportunity to cover your shorts by September 24/25 and go long again. Once the price stalled on September 17th, the shorts were initiated.( Of course only on price confirmation and with the knowledge that we are trading counter-trend on a very short term scale.)
    6. Probably the word next leg up must have confused you. This is what I had clarified in my previous reply, stating that the next leg up ( fifth wave )could start only in the first week of October.
    7. Whatever I had said needs to be confirmed by the price action and are subject to modification in the following weeks.
    8. This is to simply give a trading plan on a slightly larger time frame.

    Does this explanation suffice?

    Warm Regards,


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
  5. OK... so... Pause or correction till 24-25 n later continuation of the uptrend.. is what astrology suggesting...

    Thank u very much for the patience n elaboration..

    Regards

    Ratnakar

    ReplyDelete
  6. How much lower target we shud expect now... with global as wel local clues n also wrt astro..

    thanx

    ratnakar

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Ratnakar

    I expect this immediate correction to last till 5527 and then move upwards beyond 5652.

    Thanks and Regards,


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi, i find your blog very interesting. I use Elliot Wave on Nifty and post it on elliottwaveindia.blogspot.com. Can you include my blog in your blog roll and ill include your's as well. You can get in touch with me on ashishkyal@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dear Isha,
    I have included you in my blog roll. Thanks for the invite. My mail id is tekkiesuresh@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete